Bitcoin Forum

I've been keeping records of various statistics, including the current value of the BTC and have noticed it steadily declining over the last few weeks.  I don't think I've seen it go up once.  Does anyone know what's going on?  The highest value I have for the BTC is from when I began keeping records, on 6/16/11.  Then it was 16.7 USD/BTC.  Today, 12.52 :(

I dont see anything good here..

This is a snapshot from the last 24 hours and there's no new money expected into the market for at least a few more hours..

https://i.imgur.com/mD5CX.jpg

reminds me of the death march mid-february to early april: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2011-02-01zeg2011-04-10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

so many people were so smart, they sold at $0.80 or so and then smiled confidently as it dipped into the $0.50s.

i wonder how many are smiling today.

It's the summer, price will slowly go down until mid september. Then, it will start to massively grow again.


I bet 1 BTC that there is a strong statistical correlation between Bitcoin Price and Worldwide traffic in Terabytes.

Look further back, prior to the speculation spike caused by media events, 1 BTC was hovering around US$9. So if the Silkroad and other events did not bring Bitcoin into the limelight, US$9 would likely had be the "real" value of 1 BTC. What we're seeing now, in my non-financially trained opinion, is merely market correction to the correct valuation, quite possibly $9~$10 before it will climb up again.

Is "slow free fall" like a "slow crash" ?

slow free fall?

more like temporary dip and buying opportunity  8)

I think the price will continue to slowly fall as long as there are early adopters willing to sell.

Forget terabytes of internet traffic.  A real useful metric would be one that Theymos regularly calculates: number of unspent generations.  (or in other words, number of coins that have been mined but have never participated in any transaction, as determined by scanning the blockchain).  Last time I asked him, that figure was 2.4 million BTC, with over 3/4 of those coins being before block 70000 (in other words, mined before July 2010).

in other words early adopters have enough bitcoins mined to sell at $10 and still be set for life.........

Number of unspent generation is a very good indicator, but I think we should look at the market from a different perspective: Bitcoin is still expanding. More and more people use it.

Now most of the transactions come from Bitcoin speculation. In the future, more and more of these transactions will be originated by merchants, thus driving the value up. And IF value constantly goes up, people will be more willing to hold bitcoins.

In synthesis, as long as new adopters will put liquidity in the market by buying small bitcoin ammounts, the price should go up. Now we have less people on the internet, thus less people able to spend. Let's speak again about this around december...

No big deal, it'll rally at some point, not like you depend on the money you get from selling your BTC to survive anyways, right?

exactly! hold to win  :)

oh boy..better stock up on them while you can!  ;D

(Subliminal messaging because I own a pyramid site)  :D

A lot of very bullish commentary here unsuprisingly as we are all Bitcoin lovers :)
I however would argue that Bitcoins recent blaze of publicity starting from its parity with the dollar, all the way up to the MTGox fiasco has bought a lot of attention and new users which have pushed value upwards. As the both the spectacular and the distasters die down, I would expect a downwards trend as some adopters drift away.

So you don't think that more people will start to use Bitcoins?

Bitcoin price just made a jump up.....

I was hoping it would sit around $15, but then it just kept slowly dropping over time - until today's jump.

I was going to invest a bit of money in bitcoin with the price falling the way it was, naturally the price would have to jump before the money cleared via Dwolla.  :'(

just keep it on standby, it will come back down again..  be patient.

Prices have been bouncing off the 9$ mark repeatedly. Would not be surprised if it hovered around here until September, like most people stated.

Good point, I plan on getting my whole Comp Sci dept in on a the mining when school starts back up again

It is no doubt the summer miner kiddies  :P.

Im no technical analyst, but IMO i think the BTC market is far to new and far to inefficient to facilitate any serious technical analysis. Also until bitcoin becomes a more widely trusted and used currency i think pure speculation and rumor will bring much more volatility in the future.

Part of the problem is there are very few options to either sell the market short or in any way bet the market is going to go down, other than selling your own BTC.

I'm thinking a ton of people used it to pay for their new graphics cards and when they were paid off, they traded for USD and stopped overworking their pretty new card and started using it for just gaming.  Or people saw the price falling and too many people are trying to hop off the currency which also means they're likely to stop mining which means we make more money and eventually BTC will recover in price so if it drops below $5/BTC I'm definitely doing a USD -> BTC transfer and sitting on em.

I think you're going to use about 10,000W to generate one decent radeon card worth of MH/s lol.  Unless you're all gamers in there, who knows :P could be the autocad lab lol.  But CPU only well, core 2 duos are generally around 8MH/s and my brand new i5-2400 1155 socket can do about 16 MH/s.  My GTS450 can do about 40 MH/s.  So unless you specifically happen to have modern model radeon cards in those PCs, it's going to be pretty power inefficient.

I see two factors keeping the price down for the medium term: the MtGox fiasco (where the exchange-reported value reached $0.01 after a high above $30) and the newbie posting policy (discouraging new users).

High volatility has long been a BTC weakness, though not applicable to block-chain currencies in general.  The MtGox fiasco has dramatically demonstrated this.  High volatility is IMO due to an early adoption rate too slow for the simplistic, programmed inflation curve, and a resulting overhang of BTC concentration.

The price rise up to June could not have come without a steady influx of users, and this forum must have formed many users' first impressions.  It certainly helped form mine.  Now new users must post only in the Newbies section (as has been argued as nauseam, I won't repeat).  This must put a wet blanket on their enthusiasm.

By the way, it's interesting that this thread is under Newbies.  I'm not a newbie, but I look first to the Newbies section for interesting reading.  I find the other sections something of a self-congratulatory echo chamber.

It'll come back up. All currencies have depressions, and right now Bitcoin is having a slight recession. No biggie :)

Real = Final stable final value? Xephan meet exponential growth. Logarithmic graph please meet Xephan.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&c=1&s=2010-11-01&e=2011-06-01&l=1&p=0&t=S&m1=10&a2=&m2=25

Hrmmm, didn't know there was such thing as a slow free fall ;)

I wouldn't worry too much.

Just because bitcoins are not jumping $5 per day does not mean we are tanking.

Business as usual as far as I am concerned.

Think of this as "speculative investing" with the early adopters making the first profits.  The costs involved at the beginning were low and the profits were easy.

As time goes on the interest will go up and people will find ways to make money.  This will cause fluctuation in the markets until it stabilizes again.

The problem is that is interest in bitcoins does not continue, it will die.  There has to be a reason for people to make the effort to participate.  (Unfortunately so far that has been for the most legal reasons)

Ah damn, didn't check the scale! :(

lol yea Synaptic commonly makes the same mistake. Last I heard he was reading the charts upside down..

I found bitcoins when they were trading at about $0.60 USD/BTC. That was only back in March.

IMO we are on a steady, rocketing incline. Up 15 times over the previous 4 months. Woohooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

a very slow crash

Since December the Sun plunged into Darkness. Oh no! We'll never see $0.4 again!!! :(

http://genaud.net/bitcoin/201106combo.png

EDIT: Pardon the sarcasm, I didn't realize this was the newbie section. For your first lesson, the sun set three times and has always risen again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&noheader=1&i=Daily&c=1&s=2010-07-15&e=2011-08-01&v=1&cv=1&l=1&t=W&a1=SMA&m1=40&m2=25

LOL that was wicked :D