Bitcoin Forum

After a continuous downtrend, BTC shows signs of recovery, but according to Kuang Ren, it's very likely for price to go downwards again after current consolidation, feel free to leave your comments below and view the full-version analysis here:

We saw some biding orders aiming to buy at a bottom price after it dipped below $10,000 with expanding volumes on hourly chart yesterday.

Some investors choose to buy at a bottom price because they believe current downtrend may get supported at $10,000.

As a matter of fact, it takes time before a real bottom shows up, which makes buying on dips before price reaches to a new high a significant strategy for long-term investors.

Lack of selling pressure when price moves to the former strong support area formed by $9,800 and $10,000 will lead price into a short-term consolidation period.

Currently, inflection point for price trend has been formed, consolidation is the preview of another wave of downtrend.

As the descending channel on daily chart remains intact, the long-term consolidation will not come to the end until price breaks above the descending trendline effectively.

I’ve been talking about the fact that short-term rally does not mean a reversal in trend since it lacks support from volumes, which makes it very likely for price to go downwards again after current consolidation.

As price dips below MA 5 and shows a tendency to go south from the upper limit of descending channel, operation strategy will be easier and we just need to wait with light positions.

Original by Kuang Ren, translated by AICoin Jami.

Check more information from Chinese market here: https://www.aicoin.net.cn/news/all?lang=en

It's really hard to say what is going on.

The general public appear to be scared by the way bitcoin fell 50% from the top, so orders from noobs have dried up. Some old hands cashed out. Some speculators are still buying the dips. And there are some hedge funds who are interested in holding some bitcoin simply to diversify their portfolios because bitcoin appears uncorrelated with other assets. Which group is the strongest is anyone's guess.

There is another potential reason why Bitcoin is interesting for hedge funds. Imagine you are down a few
percentage points for the year and you hope to turn the year around, because your income as a hedge fund
manager is obviously dependent on the performance of the hedge fund. Which asset aside from
Bitcoin goes on a crazy bull run during the end of the year regularly? Besides, the tiny actual float
of Bitcoins on the exchanges makes the market prone to manipulation. Hedge funds are obviously
highly experienced in markets and have the knowledge and the capital to exploit opportunities like this.

Bitcoin is a great investment for hedge funds, which is also corroborated by the emergence
of more than 200 cryptocurrency hedge funds during the last year.

$10k support has been broken. It's not a true floor yet, I think. We're still seeing prices hang around $10k, however.

I think that we're going to bottom out at around $8500-9000 this time. Potentially a bit less but probably won't be as big as a crash as in January. We may be seeing a 4 figure bitcoin for the next week or so, and people may be inclined to sell.

Personally I'm going to hold through this. I'd buy as much as I could if price did drop below $9k since the $10k mark seems to be easy to hit, and BTC will have a very large percentage chance of returning to $10k after the dump just like last time.

you are now posting contradictory speculation in this board and quoting people we don't know, who may not even exist :D
the day after this topic you posted another one saying price is gathering momentum to rise!

the fact is, right now bitcoin is mostly unpredictable. while having a strong support at $9300 and $10,000 things are still unpredictable. which is why the most possible scenario is that we continue seeing the same small ups and downs without any big change. because anything big will lead to price coming back to around $10k because of either dumps to bring it down or panic buys which will bring it up.

bitcoin is unpredictable and will stay like that most of time because it is decentralized crypto and no one will can speculate the future price of bitcoin so all we can do is sit still and see the market curves to turn into our benefits,

If $9000 doesn't hold in the coming days, we are likely going to revisit $7500-$8000 levels before the end of next month. It's a clear pattern that has been checking each box of how a market in decline usually behaves without anything to give the market the bullish push that it needs. It actually makes sense as well, which is the most interesting part. Everything is basically okay as long as we don't dip below the previous bottom (which is slightly below $6000). If that would happen, it means that we broke a long term cycle of how the market never dipped under the previous bottom. We were actually kinda close to that becoming reality - the bottom before the most recent bottom was ~$5555 on Bitstamp (may vary per exchange), and the most recent bottom was $5920. If the panic lasted a bit longer, we would have broken through the $5555 bottom as well. That for me is a strong indicator that this cycle will likely continue in the forthcoming years as well, and thus that with a high probability, $5920 is the ultimate bottom.

we should expect this to happen and bitcoin is going to go down a little before the next pump. We are having a very serious bullish market after all the issues related to governments regulations are over. Bitcoin's price corrections is necessary for it to gather momentums for the next push. If we hold bitcoin for long-term we are helping it to gather strength in other to push the price upwards.

The downward trend is very noticeable now if we'll gonna check the chart of BTC on a 4H timeline. We are currently hovering over the $9400 area and this holds a very important support for BTC as of the moment. If this breaks in the coming hours, we could really see a retest again of the $6k area and this is not an exaggeration. The bears are still quite in control of the market and still making their moves every time we try to go up.

Just wanted to share a very interesting chart with TA from Tradingview and most of the points that I said in my previous paragraph came from this person. I don't have any connection with the publisher of this chart and I just wanted to put it out here. Here's the link (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/GUAf1WVK-Bitcoin-Walks-The-Tightrope-While-Bears-Sever-Strands-BTC/).

That's a bit premature. We're stair-stepping down right now. I expect a bounce soon that will hopefully get smacked down, setting us up for a test of the $8,000s. There's a lot of previous price consolidation and support pivots there, and it's significant on the volume profile. It's a good place for bulls to make a stand. If we fail after that, then $6k and lower is probably coming.

One wave at a time...

I couldn't imagine that the price will drop again but in bitcoin its normal to see the price falling.. As of now what i seen the price slowly dropping but you are just spreading a new FUD? I'm sure this price will stay strong and won't drop until $9,000.
The only big effect why the price is dropping its because of those news releases from the blogs and website. That honestly we don't know if its real or not.. Right now in bitcoin one of the reason why the price is drop and increase again its because of bad news and good news about bitcoin it has a large impact base on what i seen..
If you are sharing and posting here in forum and other members saying the price will going to drop sooner or later you will see the price will drop or if you are are posting a good news about bitcoin expect there's a little bitcoin increase for bitcoin..

So guys just always think positive and there are lots of people honestly wanted to drop the price of bitcoin so that they can buy them for lower price and sell it for higher price..

Mhm I don't buy it. People can make up whatever they like on all this technical analysis but they might as well be looking into a crystal ball or even a magic 8 ball. It's always been BS but in crypto it's even more obvious that no one can predict what will happen because there are so many people in so many different parts of the world that are affecting the price. The price will lie flat for a while (a relative term hahahaha. +/- 25%) then it'll head right back on trend. The upward trend. Because fiat is worthless by definition.

Many do seem to get carried away with their analysis (either because they have an agenda, as socks435 suggested, or through simple wishful thinking), but it's not all BS. In particular, short term trends and patterns tend to be easy to identify and are far more predictable - we'll probably never know for sure both the direction and time the price will move, but we can get enough of an edge over time to be able to profit from it (see for example how the idea of inside bars works, or how oversold / overbought bounces work).

That said, the last part of your comment is spot on; the safest bet is to just hodl long term, and not worry too much about it.

You can't predict how the bitcoin price is going to look in a month or two, sometimes even in a week so stop being so obsessed with that. Unless you have some magic powers or cristal ball.
The best is to develope your own strategy along with the back up plan and stick to it. Of course that you have to watch the market and make some actions according to the situation but to my opinon people just get too much focused on the price on daily basis.

I really think that a back up plan is important so you can never be too regretful when you don't sell your coins in time, All of us should have this kind of thinking when we are engaging with Cryptocurrencies, Because we can never say the movement of each and every coins out there and if you can have income or not on hodling a coin, Because there are coins that is a scam or getting bankrupt because the price would never pump.

I would not say it is contradictory as there are some points there. In the long term, I am so bullish on bitcoin, but right now in the short term, there is really nothing to be bullish about until there is enough reason to be. We are still breaking some support that I thought we could have bounced back from and go testing the upper line of the downtrend, and it seems we are still trying to find that support.

One thing I know is that we are still in a downtrend channel and until then, there is really nothing for us yet and we just have to keep our arms crossed. I only hope that the trend line from last year's dip will still save us but for long term holders, I really would have nothing to worry about.

As we can see, we are still in a downtrend channel, so all these are possible and until we leave this channel before we can even start considering of not going down further. The price has bounced back down from the upper trend line and since then it has been battling with finding support. The only thing that is applicable now is to keep seeing if we are to go form a double bottom or the possibility of a head and shoulder which has been looking bleak for a hours now.

The volume in the main exchanges seems very low for some time. When this occurs we can expect large short-term swings. I imagine that the market may have a sharp fall, and then a big rise.

I think the day traders are taking profits all the time which is stopping the price going up very much before it falls again.  And I agree people are scared of buying when the price goes up in case the same happens as happened last time when the price zoomed up  and then crashed.  I can see that it's best to buy on a big dip rather than near the top on a big rise.  Surely that is only common sense.

Most people are sitting on the sidelines in cash, waiting to see what happens. Lots will have buy orders around the $7000 level just in case there is a flash crash.

And the day traders are just battling it out around the $10,000 level, but there arn't enough of them to make the price break out in either direction.

I guess anyone that would be inclined to sell now without much information as a trader will only end up doing more harm to their investment. It is normal to see people wanting to sell what they are holding due to the way the market has been behaving, but we all know the market cannot keep going down forever. Once we are able to breakout from the downtrend channel, I believe optimism will set back in and hence we will see huge volume, but for now, we just have to wait.

Always hard! I would not blame the general public and most especially the smart traders anyway, so at the end of it all, it is either we wait to see how it all happens rather than gambling the market or we just forget about whatever happens eventually knowing the market will recover. So far, everyone is trying to play safe and with that, the bull will have a lot of work to do to convince a lot of smart guys that the bears are still not the ones controlling the market.