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Title: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: fred944 on September 24, 2013, 11:17:58 PM Noob here - I heard they found a sunken ship in the middle of the Pacific by averaging a bunch of answers, so here are some tough questions I wonder about:
1) How many people worldwide have at least one Bitcoin wallet? 2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013? thanks! Fred Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: monbux on September 24, 2013, 11:24:55 PM 2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013?
I'm thinknig it'll remain some what the same, might go up to $150 USD OR drop to $100 USD. Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: jason60069 on September 24, 2013, 11:29:24 PM It's hard to predict how many people have a bitcoin wallet, but it's probably in the millions.
December 31 isn't very far from now, so I'm guessing about $140. Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: nahtnam on September 25, 2013, 12:46:53 AM I am guessing around $160..
Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: nobbynobbynoob on September 25, 2013, 12:56:24 AM Noob here - I heard they found a sunken ship in the middle of the Pacific by averaging a bunch of answers, so here are some tough questions I wonder about: 1) How many people worldwide have at least one Bitcoin wallet? 2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013? thanks! Fred Question 1) is particularly interesting whereas 2) is just speculation. A few months ago, I found a site somewhere that suggested there were only about 1,6 million funded Bitcoin addresses, which might equate to somewhere between 50.000 and 200.000 unique users. If we're considering a genuine Bitcoiner as someone who has handled at least one millibitcoin in a wallet or account they control some time in their life then there might be anywhere between 100.000 and 2 million Bitcoiners worldwide right now - in truth, nobody knows exactly. There is increasing interest in the Far East, especially China, in terms of Bitcoin-Qt downloads, but this does not necessarily mean all those downloaders deposited 1 mBTC or more in their newfangled wallets. As for guessing the BTC/fiat ratio at the end of this year, I'll just pull a random figure out of my backside because it's as good as anybody else's guess: $172 on Coinbase/Bitstamp. Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: marcotheminer on September 25, 2013, 10:27:27 AM 10 million
and $160 USD Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: nobbynobbynoob on September 25, 2013, 01:13:39 PM 10 million Are there even that many funded Bitcoin addresses at the moment? It'd be interesting to find out: the 1,6 million figure I quoted in my previous post is a few months out of date. Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: Samir_H on September 25, 2013, 02:42:29 PM 2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013? I hope 200$ :) And I think it's not impossible to be around that. Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: Dide on September 25, 2013, 03:12:08 PM Do you have a link about that sunken ship story? The wisdom of the crowds is an interesting story, just in trading you'd have to do the opposite, since most traders are losing money...
Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: fred944 on October 07, 2013, 02:11:19 PM Do you have a link about that sunken ship story? The wisdom of the crowds is an interesting story, just in trading you'd have to do the opposite, since most traders are losing money... Here's a link:http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/28/nazis-sunken-ships-and-a-67-year-old-game-of-telephone/ Title: Re: Wisdom of Crowds Post by: qwertyGuy on October 07, 2013, 02:25:24 PM 2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013? In 3 months probably +- 30 of today price. Good luck with the averaging story, some will tell you 1000+ :P |