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I was beaten hard today (as "percent" on JD). During the course of my play, just-dice.com's rule changed. (UPDATE: in successive two days)

1. Max profit went down to 0.25%; (CHANGED WHEN I WAS PLAYING, WHICH IS UNFAIR.)
2. (not confirmed) the house edge raised when profit is larger than 50.

(I feel) The game is completely different. I wasn't able to drag the site's profit to down -6K. I don't remember, I once did(?), but seconds later I was down dramatically. And in the end, I lost 3K, which means, with a max profit of 70, I am incapable of winning back, crystally clear.Therefore, I'm leaving JD for good, since 1) I cannot win further; 2) I've proved my points.

Allow me restate: I respect doog and his work. Doog is an upstanding guy, and his work is wonderful. What happened during last three months, is nothing personal. Once doog asked me, "You always say you respect my work, why are you trying to kill the profit of JD?" I didn't and never meant to.

IMO, a winning whale is the most effective advertisement of a casino. However, most people here would disagree. They're more happy to see a whale is hunted down, beaten hard. I played by rules, and won. (I'm still up a lot.)

From now on, I'll only talk about projects I'm involving, https://letsdice.com, for example. Hope most of you be nice to me. Thank you.

PS: About the bankroll I have, I started "gambling" on JD with 3000BTC (apart from another 4000 for investment), and never down more than 700.


UPDATED 1


So, can I interpret this as: the change was made specifically for me? only because I always win (bit, and legit).  I'm somehow disappointed.


UPDATE 2:

I studied my betting log of yesterday's bets, I doubt just-dice.com has changed something besides "Max Profit". I know you guys will refute me with "That's just a negative variation, the same you had in the past, that lucky positive variation."

I hope you're right. But if my doubt is true, I mean "ONLY IF", I'd warn players stay away from a casino that is designed specifically to kill whales and dolphins."

I don't want to argue, I only want to show what I doubt. I have no concrete proof, but the game is entirely different. I'm not complaining here, you all know I'm still up 11K. I would not call anyone cheater without proof (I always say, "I don't believe it" is not a valid proof.)

You all know I invested JD once, and now holding many shares of https://letsdice.com. However, the doubt is not for the competition. I know all of you can hardly believe the reason why I continuously "reaped" JD's profit (from 6k to minus recently) is to persuade Dooglus that 1% house edge is very dangerous to the casino. He didn't take my advices, which doesn't matter; but if Dooglus secretly changed algorithm (specifically for me), that's UNFAIR, and quite wrong.

Below are some of my accounts (I forgot the other two winning accounts' password)

as: nakowa, ID: 2548

https://i.imgur.com/XO3lJ5a.png

as: allover, ID: 136175

https://i.imgur.com/DwZUo6J.png

as: cake, ID: 145625

https://i.imgur.com/iv7d9jp.png

as: (I forgot), ID: 150486

https://i.imgur.com/PEjAkdg.png

as: percent, ID: 153338 (the rules changed during this ID was playing.)
https://i.imgur.com/grICaWA.png

as: claudette, ID: 155525

https://i.imgur.com/kG1sMT7.png

In the past, even if my "luck" is lower than 100%, I won. (id: 2458, 98.33%; id: 150486, 98.22%)

But after Dooglus changed the rules, while I was playing as "percent", in the last half, I often confronted long streak of losses with large bets, only won long streak of wins with dust bets. Even though my "luck" is 100.85%, I lost very quickly. Today, my "luck" is dramatically, or distinctively low, which is 94.52%, and I lost almost within half a hour. I can only doubt something is going wrong here.

• nakowa +4396, 86,302
• allove, +2562, wagered +139,537
• cake, +4440,  366,993
• 150486, +1001, wagered 135,278
• percent -2976 wagered 162,941
• claudette -2000  wagered 13,927

JD is alleged "provably fair", which I sincerely want to believe. However, I doubt something changed. Since I have no concrete proof, I hope dooglus can public his algorithm (which I highly doubt has changed, specifically for me, the only winning whale on JD), and data of my recent bets, or all bets. In this way, the community can verify Doog didn't do anything wrong, and he's still an upstanding guy, respected by the community.

==========

PS: (Believe it or not, I'm not a gambler at all. I only take actions to prove something that has to be proven by actions.) If I continue to play, I'll run out of luck, and I doubt I'll be hunted down easily and quickly because of "changed" algorithm. Now that the JD's profit is a little bit under 0, I should stop prove anything further, I've done enough. JD's investors almost lost nothing, what they lost is only their "profit". I know if the profit was pushed back to positive by my loss, I'd become a joke, which I don't like to be. :) Therefore, I'll keep the rest of the profit forever.

UPDATE 3


OK. Doog, did you read this post? (I know you must have read; and if so, you know your answer above is completely irrelevant to refute my doubt)

Provably fair and how it can be exploited by casino owners against you. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283547.0

Now you should explain to me one important thing (and this is the UGGLY part):

After you changed Max Profit, why something like this always happened: I placed a dust bet, the result is instantly returned and won, but when I placed large bet, the result lagged for a moment? And 8 out 10, the lagged results were losses.

I fully understand how "provable fair" works, and that's why I played on JD with that large amount of coins. I'll keep the rest 11K, and never play on JD again. Because I cannot trust the game anymore.

NOTE: Because I CANNOT prove YOU changed anything, though I suspect, I will not call you a cheater. That's the difference between me and you (and your fans who call me a fraud, a scam, even a thief without any proof.).

UPDATE 4


I (the whale) always play by rules (the rules you set).

Now you think I'm breaking you by the rules you set, and you fight back by changing rules (which is exactly what you did)?

Doog, you're disappointing me.

Sigh, only harsh pressure can reveal one's true character.


OK. :)

UPDATE 5


UPDATE 6


TO DOOGLUS:
I said in the previous post:

You didn't answer anything about this.

why don you give out some large freebie to advertise your letsdice? since you said you won so much .

House Edge still 1% for all bets.  This was a stopgap measure.
The new plan is to raise the house edge gradually for bets with a max profit over 50BTC.  It will remain 1% for all below.  
The max bet will be raised after those changes are made
After rules were changed, Nakowa continued playing and only posts crying foul since he lost a bit.
I won't post in this thread any further, since I don't want to help you keep bumping your scam site.

To recall, this Nakowa and wannabe dice site operator stole 1300 BTC in free roll from Dooglus: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gambler-cheats-satoshidice-competitor-just-dice-out-of-1300-btc/

I think I should not play on the site I invested. And believe it or not, I'm not a gambler, which is hard to explain, though.

Changing the rule without warning players, is not good. I think.

You aren't beaten if you just stop now.

Partly true. However, can't you see I proved something?

Yes. You proved that neither you nor the site op understand probability. I'm rooting for you to do the smart thing and quit while you're ahead, regardless.

Sadly, I think you indeed did prove something.  That we weren't as confident in the math as we claimed to be.  We changed the rules just because you were winning; no one had convincing evidence that you ever cheated. 

Congratulations on the big wins, by the way.  The last few days must have been exhilarating!  I couldn't sleep and I wasn't even betting.

Doog knows exactly I wasn't cheating.

I'm expecting doog will accept my advices: 1. raise the house edge, 2. (optional) set the limit on max profit. I've been trying to persuade him for a long time. However, it never occurs to me it would happen in this way, though.

BTW: I'm not upset or angry, I'm leaving a casino with large amount of winnings. In fact, I'm happy: I finally walked out of it.

Doog said earlier in the chat that you weren't online when he changed it - that he changed it before he went to bed the night before. I could be wrong, though.

He changed it while your balance was 0.

Yes, please.

Thanks for that 0.10% + profit man!

"2. (optional) set the limit on max profit. I've been trying to persuade him for a long time"
We have also been pursuing this with him for sometime I'm glad if the max was lowered.

If the payout odds actually changed while you was playing and clearly unaware then one would think that is theft. Please file a complaint

Was there really any question it wasn't made specifically for you? You could take it as a compliment.

I think you are right to feel targeted by the rule change but should no way view yourself as beaten.

As a (small) JD investor I did not like losing to you but don't think you were cheating and I never understood the allegations that you and dooglus were the same person.  (Though apparently that bothered him quite a bit.)

To the extent that your point was that someone who is willing to take losses and keep playing can put the major hurt on sites like Just-Dice I think you are wholly vindicated.  I joked in chat that you should play under the name "The Terminator" because you just kept going and going.  While I think your success was due to variance rather than a system or exceptional luck, it really doesn't make much difference, the several thousand bitcoins you're sitting on attests to the correctness of the net effect of your views.

I'm sorry but I really don't like the idea of let's dice where I have to be part of a multi-level marketing deal to gamble or invest, but I do wish you luck with it.

Well, sometimes you lose when you gamble dude.. Kinda sucks but it happens. Good luck with your LD site.

I agree that changing the rules without warning was a bit unfair. However you should realize he unwillingly did you a favor: you lost 3k with 80 max bet, with 320 you would have bet 4x, with the same exact pattern most likely, and would have lost 3x4=12k.

Lowering the max bet only had the effect of slowing down your gains, so you felt like going on for much longer, eventually losing.



You shouldn't: he has the right to lower the max bet if the house is taking too much losses and cannot afford. It's his business, he must manage it properly to avoid the risk of going broken. He lowered it while you were by far on top. Had he lowered while you were losing you could have had a point.
You and you only chose to try to win more under the new rules.

You said if he lose and at the other side what if he could win ?
(Nothing personal)

No, another deposit was waiting for confirmation.

I think doog owes me an apology.  ;D

You don't have to. You can choose investing only (buying shares, and receiving dividend daily), or playing only (ignoring the whole referral rewards system).

so according to that chart, that means nak had a chance to walk away when he was ahead... because he obviously lost and then won his coins back plus some... so how is that dirty? There was obviously a span of time when the change was put into place so it didnt happen in the middle of his betting like he accused. looks to be about 15-20 minutes without nak betting when the change was made.

so Nakowa = Celeste = Towroad = guy who created letsdice?

You can say https://letsdice.com is sort of a brain child of mine. Martin and his team developed it. I invested.

Do u have a bet spreadsheet that shows your bet history?

I think doog can export that for you.

It's silly to lower the max wager because someone gets lucky.  The math doesn't change.  The max wager should be 0.5% of bankroll for the even money bet.  Otherwise you're not maximizing your investors' profits.

It's unfair that changed the house edge without any announcement  :(

The house edge wasn't changed.

Nakowa has lost. Great victory!
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1410000!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_635/aptopix-north-korea-armistice.jpg

post updated.

You were lucky and won 12 k btc with a small %, now you got unlucky and lost 4k with a higher %. Nothing wrong

I sincerely hope you're right.

Try to win back your BTC. It will work, don't worry

Seems to me you should be grateful the max bet was lowered https://i.imgur.com/hL1xQ7Y.png

You would have lost even more if it had been kept at 1%

Nakowa can never win it back. This proves he has no 'method' or 'strategy' and only got lucky at the higher limits.

He is a fraud. He tried to sell his 'strategy' for 111BTC.  Trying to rip-off unsuspecting superstitious people.  If he really has a strategy he should still be able to win even 1000BTC at the lower limits.   

But he won't. He can't win anymore.

While allover's losing streak tonight was rather frightening to watch (from someone who likes a bit of a gamble), I have to say it's not extraordinary.  I have stood at a French roulette wheel betting on black and lost ten times in a row.  If it was online at an unregulated gambling site I would probably be tempted to say I was cheated, but this happened at a real bricks and mortar casino.  

Allover, you are ahead on your gambling and have done well.  The best thing to do is to consider your options and strongly consider walking away a handsome winner.  Many, many gamblers have begun a losing streak and think 'I can't be this unlucky' and 'surely things can only improve from here' then gamble away all their assets and more.

If you can find some evidence that you were cheated then please present it.  'I can't possibly be this unlucky' doesn't really count as anything but highly circumstantial evidence.

Yes a fraud, however don't be too sure about "can't win anymore". House edge is the same, only the variance is tighter.

This is exactly why I advise Dooglus to publish his algorithm, since it's truly "provably fair". If doog didn't cheat at all, what's the loss for him? I think it's the easiest way for Dooglus to prove himself clear. And, I said I wouldn't call anyone a cheater without proof.

The algorithm is published.  Under the 'Fair?' tab on the site there are a couple of third party verifier scripts.  Have you tried those?

Nakowa, you are a fraud.

If you think you have a strategy, then lets see you win even 1000BTC using 90BTC max bet.

Stop calling dooglus a cheater. The only thing that changed is the max bet lower.  The algorithm is published publicly on the 'fair' tab.

You want to sell your strategy for 111BTC but you can't because you had 2 losing sessions in a row.

Did you ever read this post? [EDU] Provably fair and how it can be exploited by casino owners against you. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283547.0

Proof, please.

It seems you may be out of options to prove JD cheated you.

I first heard about JD and started using the site after reading about your wins on a popular mainstream news web site.  How did you intend to keep winning when the odds are mathematically against you and it's only a matter of time until variance swings the other way?  I know people go on about 'feelings' and 'knowing' when they'll win, but everyone (bar the player) knows that's just a gambler's fallacy.  As is trying to find patterns in random numbers generated by OpenSSL.  If there are patterns to be had after observing just a few hundred thousand outcomes then forget an insignificant site like JD.  Online banking and commerce around the world would be in serious trouble.

:) I'm not talking about patterns here. I think doog can easily prove himself. The only issue is that is he willing to, and how.

Nakowa,  You are a fraud. Take your money and leave.

We don't want you to play at just-dice.com anymore!

proof,please.

Who cares about you?
Bye

He claims to sell a strategy for 111BTC to tell people how to win and beat just-dice.  He is a fraud.  We don't want him to play at just-dice anymore. 

He can play at satoshi dice they have 1.9% edge... He can go to a real casino with 1.9% edge....

He should stay away from just-dice 1% edge we don't want him there he is a fraud and accuser of dooglus.

So you mean the proof is "He claims to sell a strategy for 111BTC to tell people how to win and beat just-dice" ,right? It seems that you have bought the strategy to check whether it's worked out or not ,huh?

You, otherwise you shouldn't reply this post.  :P

I don't give a shit about him/it.
Otherwise I would have read the first post :P

hey nakowa you should gamble on letsdice.com - give something back to the letsdice investors :)

Will

Nakowa: your strategy never worked. You didn't prove a single point (well, yes: that a single player with a bankroll orders of magnitude bigger than the rest of the players can create high variance - and some of us already knew that).

As an investor, I tell you that I was and I am just begging for you to keep playing. Too bad that some others "lost faith in math" (LOL) and panicked, which lead to a drastic reduction of max profit, which in fact probably "protected" you from bigger losses in the last three sessions.

You should feel ashamed for trying to sell a "gambling strategy" based on "flaws in SHA256" for 111 BTC. You have no strategy, you discovered NO flaw in SHA256, and you just bet at random trying to "spot patterns" - which is just a gambler's fallacy.

common it's only 5k

if doog rigged the algor, there must be ways to crack it up again as long as it's still provable fair .

everybody is missing you  8)

For what it's worth, the algorithm is here: http://just-dice.com/lucky.txt
Nothing has changed besides the max profit.

The strategy was hacked and leaked for free and it was a fraud. Nakowa is a fraud.

We don't want him to play at Just-Dice.com anymore!!!!

NAKOWA STAY AWAY FROM JUST-DICE. DO NOT DEPOSIT. GO AND PLAY AT 1.9% EDGE AT SATOSHIDICE.

So your site (letsdice) is fraud too?   All right I'll never play there

Nakowa uses investor money from letsdice.com to play at just-dice.com

Nakowa is a fraud.   I hope he never plays at just-dice.com again.

I think you mean you "suspect" that something other than max profit has changed.  When you say you doubt something has happened, it means you think it hasn't happened.  You're saying you think it HAS happened.  This seems like an important point to make, because it completely changes the sense of what you're saying.  If I understand you, you're saying you think I changed something, not that you think I didn't.

I changed nothing other than the max profit.  The site is provably fair, and so you can verify that for yourself.  The algorithm is public.  Here for instance: https://just-dice.com/lucky.txt it is in the actual code that the site uses.  It's explained in words on the 'Fair?' tab.

If you look at your first bet of your most recent session: https://just-dice.com/roll/140043787, you'll see the seeds that were used.  You changed the seeds after your last deposit of 1000 BTC - here's the first bet you made with the new seeds: https://just-dice.com/roll/140090376 - you'll see that the server seed for that is still a secret.  That's in case you want to keep playing with it.  If you don't, click 'randomize' and the server seed will then be revealed.  Its hash is already published, and it's ce226cf6fe1034f2e85ea16b968f5955914c679c6addb6952f4a32d8ef3bc3bc.  That has been published since before your first roll.

Once you click 'randomize', the /roll/ URL above will show the actual server seed.  You'll then be able to use one of the 3rd party roll verification tools, such as Mooshire's one here: http://bitcoinmaniac.com/justdice.html enter the server seed, client seed, number of rolls, etc. and it will list all your lucky numbers.  You can compare them with any records you kept of your play, or with this log of your play: http://privatepaste.com/143646bf35

The log lists every deposit, every bet, every lucky number, and shows the nonce (n:) for each bet, and when you switched seeds.


We don't have to.  The maths refutes you.  The site is provably fair for a reason.  It's so that you can't claim "something changed" and be taken seriously.  Nothing changed except that the max profit was temporarily reduced while I work on allowing investors to select their own risk level.


And now we get to the real point.  "JD is cheating.  Use LD".  Right?  Doesn't matter that it isn't true.  Just throw enough mud and hope some of it sticks.


I have concrete proof that nothing has changed.  That's why you have no proof that it has changed - because it hasn't.

The game is the same.  You're betting against a sequence of random numbers, thinking you see patterns in it, and thinking "something changed" when the patterns stop appearing.  The truth is there are no patterns, you see what you want to see.  Sometimes you see a bunch of WLWLWL and sometimes you don't.  Random is like that.  Yesterday I saw a cloud that looked like a donkey.


Why don't you show the losing ones too, like 118977 (gigad) and 119016 (alison)?  They both lost before this alleged "change".  Could it be that they don't support your story and so you conveniently ignore them?


I didn't change anything that would cause you to have different streaks.  The *only* thing that changed was the max profit went from 1% of bankroll to 0.25% of bankroll.  It happened after you had busted.  Before you redeposited.


More than allegedly, it actually is provably fair.  Anyone can verify your first 521 bets in http://privatepaste.com/143646bf35 because the server seed is already published.  If you click 'randomize' then everyone can also verify the last 599 bets in there.  I would encourage you to verify the rolls for yourself, because otherwise you'll suspect that "the community" is lying to you about it being legit, because they hate you, or for whatever reason.  I would also encourage everyone else to do the same.  I have nothing to hide.

Dooglus is honest.

Just Dice is provably fair.

There are no known flaws in sha256.

Nakowa: you are just a lucky player. If you really think you can beat the house edge in the long term, just prove your point by playing until you or the Casino go busto. I guess doog could at least raise max profit to 0.5% and commit to not changing the rules while you are playing, we would enjoy the show.

I don't know whether this is useful or not, but I ran Mooshire's verification tool on the first set of rolls in nakowa's most recent session.  The rolls it predicts exactly match up with the actual rolls from my logs.  (Of course...)

https://i.imgur.com/t50eyWa.png

If I'm cheating then of course I could have faked that screenshot.  That's why you have to run Mooshire's tool for yourself to check it.

You're already a joke because you always say you're leaving, and then you keep coming back to lose more. 

You're like a battered woman who can't stop coming back to your abuser.  But please do!  We'd love to get more coins back from you.

No.

DON'T come back to just-dice.   We don't want your wins or your losses anymore.

GO play at satoshidice.com 1.9% edge with 500BTC bets.

Have fun.

Nakowa, do you think you could spare me a bit of BTC? hahah I know you wont but its worth a try!

14yR2iK2XhbMr6aqaCRzFARem92WuLsZsL    (If you wish :D Youd make my day 10x over)

There's still other casino's with 1% edge also.  I'm not sure what their max bet is though.

OK. Doog, did you read this post? (I know you must have read; and if so, you know your answer above is completely irrelevant to refute my doubt)

Provably fair and how it can be exploited by casino owners against you. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283547.0

Now you should explain to me one important thing (and this is the UGGLY part):

After you changed Max Profit, why something like this always happened: I placed a dust bet, the result is instantly returned and won, but when I placed large bet, the result lagged for a moment? And 8 out 10, the lagged results were losses.

I fully understand how "provable fair" works, and that's why I played on JD with that large amount of coins. I'll keep the rest 11K, and never play on JD again. Because I cannot trust the game anymore.

NOTE: Because I CANNOT prove YOU changed anything, though I suspect, I will not call you a cheater. That's the difference between me and you (and your fans who call me a fraud, a scam, even a thief).

Quite amazing how you wagered so much BTC just in order to law-of-large-numbers estimate the house edge on your bets.

I read all your replies here, and read all your posts in the forum, the conclusion? You ARE completely RETARDED.

You know what? I can call you a fraud, since you always allege, never provide proof.

Now, allow me refute you: The investors money is in the address that everyone can check: http://blockchain.info/address/1LDipoYVWA7UsFzWrrcXUGLnsXWuYaJB9f

Again, you are UNFAIR. Again and again, though I've been trying ultimately reasonable to you.

From "JD is cheating", the concrete conclusion should be "Don't expect win big from JD anymore", among others like "Use LD, PD, ID, SD..." There're numerous dice games out there!

And the dice game would not be the only game bitcoin users enjoy. More nicely designed games are coming.

What is a dust bet?  Everyone knows (or should know) that each roll of the 'dice' is independent of the next.  Just because you've had 10 small bets in a row that lost doesn't mean the next large bet wins.  If dust betting is also meant to consume the 'bad' rolls so you can use the 'good' ones then it's the very definition of the gambler's fallacy.

Regarding small bets being resolved instantly but large bets taking a second or two, I've had situations where betting 0.0001 btc also lagged.  Sometimes the lag stretched out to 5 seconds.  Very loose correlation is not evidence of causation.

Without real evidence that JD has done something wrong apart from 'I feel', 'it appears' and 'it's strange that' kind of evidence it looks like you're not getting anywhere.  Even if you create a new account and bet proportionally much smaller amounts on JD and consistently win that of course is not evidence that JD cheated you before.  You need real evidence.

20 BTC is the max of the other 1%ers

Can't you see in this situation, I, as a user, cannot have any concrete proof?

But Dooglus really need to explain why that "lagging" happened.

I think that's perfectly clear.  I'm glad you agree.


If you bet 10 times in a row and lost with no lag you would be blaming the site operator for setting a "lose" flag on your account.  If there was lag you would accuse the operator of sitting there and clicking red when your bets came up.  Meh.

Use your previous winning strategy and take revenge on the site.  Crush the investors, see them driven before you, hear the lamentations of their women.

http://blockchain.info/address/1LDipoYVWA7UsFzWrrcXUGLnsXWuYaJB9f (http://blockchain.info/address/1LDipoYVWA7UsFzWrrcXUGLnsXWuYaJB9f)

Well it seems he has taken 1,000 bitcoin from lets-dice.

you have to know when to quit. you were up 12k btc. if that isn't enough, well..

It's enough, I agree.

Hey Nak, what happened to that 1000 bitcoin from the lets-dice wallet?

The receiving address belongs to https://letsdice.com too.
http://blockchain.info/address/1LDBankfbBAqMBBX65xgxgKQqgeuR2DD6U

It's for the online hot wallet.

Ah thanks. So lets-dice is down 170 bitcoin at the moment? Variance?

1. Are you an investor of JD? If so, I'm sorry.
2. As of your description on "Crush the investors, see them..." I already did, over and over. Once interesting, now boring.
3. I was beaten by changed rules, public and hidden. (within two sessions, gave back 5k winnings.)
4. I got 12k "free" coins, which I think is pretty enough, considering the cost of these coins is ZERO.
5. Out of that 12K, I spend 6k on IPO shares of letsdice.com; the dividend I've been receiving daily is pretty decent. :)
6. I'm using the rest for ongoing projects, and more nicely designed games are coming.

What makes you think I will lose after all?

YES.

However, WE DON'T CHANGE RULES BECAUSE PLAYERS WIN, right?

UPDATE 4

2013.09.27 14:05:38 (1) <dooglus> fizz: it's ok to cater to whales, but what if they're breaking you?

I (the whale) always play by rules (the rules you set).

Now you think I'm breaking you by the rules you set, and you fight back by changing rules (which is exactly what you did)?

Doog, you're disappointing me.

Sigh, only harsh pressure can reveal one's true character.

Max profit will be taken to 0.5% in a few hours, will you be able to win the house edge or you just run out of luck?

I'll not play on a casino that changes rules while players are winning. Period.

Changing the rules while you were playing was not cool, I guess it was a decision taken in the heat of the moment, probably because of the pressure of a few investors scared to death of variance... Anyhow you already got an apology.... And isn't 0.5% max profit good enough to use your "strategy"?

rumor has it that you DDOSed JD, is that playing by rule? or how about that 1300 free chips bitch move drama, or the swallowing of your own words not coming back to JD. Not that I care but Doog may owe one apology to you, while you owe at least 3 apologies to him.

1. DDos is nothing to do with me.
2. about 1300 event, I explained clearly.
3. Coming back to JD, is always to prove something. Now, nothing to prove.
4. What should I apology? None of the above three.

If you're trying to discuss with me, please try hard to be more rational. Learn the logic, please. Otherwise, you're not eligible to do so.


PS: Once, while I was playing, JD got ddos attack, and I pressed three times H while didn't know what happened. Result? I l got three -200! Any ddos attack would cost no more than $25,000, I think.

If I failed to address any of your points to your satisfaction, please let me know which one(s) and I will try again.  The site is provably fair.  That means I can prove it is fair.  This is, you cannot reasonably claim that it cheated you.  You may be suspicious, but if you look into how the site works, you can allay your own fears.  If, on the other hand, you want to spread FUD about the site, you can do that too.


I'm very familiar with that post, yes.  I don't think any of it applies in this case.  We don't use HTML partials.  We don't change seeds unless the player requests it, etc.  If you feel any of it does apply, please tell me which part and I will address it.


As you are aware, Just-Dice is under DDoS attack.  The attack is constantly ongoing.  I am doing my best to address the problem and trying to keep the site up.  The site isn't as fast as it once was, but at least it still works.  At times, the site gets laggy.  Any correlation between slow bets and losing bets is certainly coincidental.  The site code doesn't care whether the site wins or loses a bet.  It just crunches the numbers according to the published algorithm, using the seeds, and updates your balance accordingly.  Deliberately pausing before displaying a losing bet wouldn't benefit the site in any way.  I've seen some people suggest that the pauses on other sites are caused by the site "brute forcing sha256".  This is plainly ridiculous.  Brute forcing sha256 takes millions of years, not a few seconds.  If you have specific suggestions of how the site may be cheating you, please tell me so I can refute them.  Saying "it's laggy so it's cheating" isn't good enough.  It's laggy because somebody is attacking the site.


In that case you understand that there's no time element in the lucky number selection.  All your rolls are effectively predetermined as soon as your server and client seeds are selected.  You are able to verify the results for yourself once you finish playing.  If you are able to find any way in which the site would be able to cheat you, please do let me know, because I want to eliminate any possibility of the site cheating.  I believe I have already done so, but apparently not to your satisfaction.

Nice try Doog, but why it's always lagging more often when bigger bets lost?

you said it yourself the site is provably fair thats all there is to it

Nakowa, it looks to me like you are trying to find any excuse to justify not playing again without losing face because you are afraid to lose, proving you are not so special and your strategy was being lucky.

Quite simply, it isn't.  You're imagining it.  Or if it is, it's a coincidence.  Random chance.

It was a particularly weak response to my post wasn't it?  He picked one line out of a long post and almost sort of addressed it.  Ignoring all the more interesting points that he couldn't answer.

if he found a "pattern" which is working all the time he should be able to repeat it by request everytime as long it is requested. that's than proof enough for everyone.

really there is no pattern! patterns work only a time in the mind of the gambler as long the pattern and the luck stays combined during a unspecified timeframe. patterns are hocus-pocus!

EDIT: by the way he is always do promotion (not for JD) so stop argue with him to avoid more promotion.

To be honest this entire conversation is very complicated for what is actually a simple matter.

1 - Nakowa kept getting lucky and was down thousands of bitcoin many times but had enough bitcoin to always come back.

2 - The entire thing about WL pattern is mathematically false. If you were to map out distributions we will find that if house edge was 0% WLWL should occur the same as LLLL or WWWW.

3 - We reduced the max bet to reduce variance. Now Nakowa has to make more bets to equal same amount wagered. This will prolong the time he needs to make the same profit. This is good for investors because the more he plays the more chance of ruin.

4 - Even if Nakowa never plays again and does not give back the coins he won, the house profit will just increase over time like it has always done outside of Nakowa's bets.

5 - Remember Nakowa accounts for half the house wagered or close to it. This accounts for Nakowa being dominant when it comes to house profit.

6 - If there were 100 Nakowa whales playing everyday we would see house profit move upwards.

7 - If Nakowa is correct and his pattern system is the winning system, then even max bet at 0.25% he should still be able to win.

in a specific timeframe you will get more LWLW than LWLL but than it changes to less LWLW and more LWLL. and so on. Nakowa got a lucky time where LWLW worked for him. but he is not able to repeat it.

EDIT: the kind of pattern is not important. it is a wager of a certain pattern (e.g. LWLW, LWLLW, LWWWW) and it will work for a certain time but not always. you cannot determine if a pattern is more lucky than other patterns but the gambler tries to identify a certain pattern during a time frame of observation. then in his mind he knows for sure this specific pattern occurs more than other patterns. the bold "W" is the sign for the higher bet (amount of money) to result a positive return. you can work also with a combination of patterns at the same time combined with your intuition and your feeling of being the master over the system is much stronger. ;-)

EDIT2: the argumentation of Nakowa is crystal clear: he complain about the decrease of the max bet because a pattern works only for a short time. during this time he needs a high max bet to get a large positive result. maybe he is very good in identification of certain patterns.

EDIT3: a fast reaction of the site is also required to work with patterns. a gambler with this skills needs an immediate feedback for the acknowledge of patterns. everything which is boring to the gambler must be avoided. SD is a good example how not to design it for gamblers.

It's the very single important question. Your site recently acts normal when players win (small), but lags when players lose (large), what's happening? DDos itself cannot explain this, or, DDos attacks are helping you (which is very unlikely)?

As of "trying to find any excuse... without losing face...", I'm curious, I'm up 10K+, how can I lose face because of winning?
If you mean in the last two session, I lost, I could understand you. But I'm questioning here, what Doog has changed? 1) changed rules without warning players = confirmed; (UNFAIR!) 2) changed rules specifically for me = confirmed; (UNFAIR again!) 3) more importantly besides previous two, nothing else changed?

nothing was changed except the max bet size. have faith in your skills and repeat your show again, please. but i can understand that you need high amounts to get the kick you need for your attention to be aware of patterns if they occur. I'm not joking. I can understand you. but again he did not changed some important in this short time at a live hot system.

The "strategy" is irrelevant to the topic of this post.

After his being UNFAIR twice, please HELP Dooglus and his investors prove they'll never be UNFAIR again.  ???

You are seeing patterns where they don't exist.  This isn't the first time that has happened (WLWLWL).


Nothing changed.  No "rules".  I reduced the maximum any single bet can win to reduce the variance in an attempt to protect the site's bankroll.  I made the change when there was very little activity on the site.  Your balance and investment were both zero at the time.

That is all.  There are no user-specific rules with the exception of users who have self-excluded from gambling.

I get it you're upset that you lost a couple of times on the site, but baseless accusations aren't going to help you.  If you have any real evidence please present it.  I've already countered all your points.  What do you think adding a delay before announcing a losing bet would achieve?  If you read about how the site's provable fairness works you'll see that there is no time element involved, so your "lag == cheating" theory is ridiculous on its face.

But another 1000 was waiting for confirmation, you didn't see that? you're always broadcasting my account information in the Chat room: like "4 left in the balance, 500 is coming..." (1)
And did you say something like this: "the change will protect investor from someone"? (2)

Allover, in a day (?) the change will be reversed halfway (back to 0.5%, from 0.25% where it is now) and Doog is implementing measures to allow 1% again while protecting the portion of the investor base that cannot cope with volatility.

The point is that he changed without warning players. I'm saying it's not fair.

As of whether he will raise it back, not relevant to this discussion.

I agree it's not fair. The influence is limited though and had no influence on your win odds on any single bet.

I'm not sure you understand what that word means.

Unfair means that a rule or action applies to some people and not to others. In what way was the change "unfair"? Everyone is playing by the same rules.

What is even more hilarious is that the change protected you from the larger losses you almost certainly would have had.

The pendulum swung against you, and you should have stopped while you were ahead. That's on you buddy, that has nothing to do with Doog or anyone else.

You have some points. However, the obvious thing Doog has changed is Max Profit, and the change is specifically for me, even Doog himself doesn't deny this.

Now, you know exactly what UNFAIR means?

Or he could come back to JD and show us with his strategy! :D

Nakowa, look at how good you were doing before they changed the rules on you:

https://i.imgur.com/ooGBuvh.gif

Perhaps the rule change is messing up your strategy some how: wait till doog increases max bet up to 0.5% (~200 BTC) later today.  

There are doubters out there, but your gambling skills and bravery are inspiring lots of people too.  If you can push your curve into the RED zone on this graph, you'll have us all convinced!

No.

Nakowa, keep your BTC and go play somewhere else.  SatoshiDice 1.9% edge just for you.

Cursing is not reasoning. Go back to school and learn, please.

Don't leave, let these idiots talk :)

you have a gambling problem

Most people would kill to have a problem that leads them to win +1M usd.

We say it's luck, he says he has a winning strategy, only way to prove it is to keep playing until him or the house go busto.

anyone here who has no problem?

Nakowa. You are a fraud.

Im am telling you right now.  Don't come back to Just-Dice.  Go play at SatoshiDice 1.9%.  Have fun.

Could you go post in  another forum integrity42? k thnx bye

Psychologists call it an "observation bias"

Holy Cow!, while I was looking around allover's profile I found out something astonishing!
Stay puckered, I'm about to blow this case wide open.


~DRAMATIC MUSIC~ DUH NUH NUH NUH NUH NUH DUH DUH DUH DUH NUUUUUH

This was all a ploy to get Dooglus' attention! Nakowa is attracted to Dooglus! -sexually-

That is really cute and all, but do you have any idea how many pairs of investors underwear needed to be thrown out after this little flirt festival? I don't have an exact number but my guesstimation is; Alot.

If you wanted to get his attention you could have just sent him a picture of your feet. (I bet he's a feet person.)

Oh but what am I saying, that is so romantic!

Sure I don't have any proof, but it's very UNFAIR to be a woman and play on Dooglus' site. Heck, I am straight dude, and I'VE got the hots for the Doog. A woman doesn't stand a chance.

And what are the flipping odds? A woman on just-dice that doesn't want to get into Dooglus' pants. HAH! I don't think so. You think I'm gullible or something? I'm onto you, Nakowa, there's no denying it any longer!

Follow your heart, stop all the bickering. Kiss and makeup. You know you want to.
(I want you to.)

You're right... only if I'm the only one who observes this. Oh, if I was the only one, JD is more suspicious.

People have DDOSed JD before. What proof do you have he's the one behind it this time?

I saw that you had a deposit pending and so weren't playing at the time, yes.  I wanted to reduce the variance to protect the bankroll and waited for betting activity to stop before I did so.  It was the early hours of the morning and I wanted to sleep.  If I had waited for you to stop depositing and playing I could well have been waiting all night.

I don't think I said anthing like that, no.  But the forum had a 'quote' mechanism which you can use to quote people.  This wasn't about you.  It was about protecting the site from the massive swings we had been seeing.

I deny this.  The change was to protect the bankroll from the risk of ruin that I perceived.  It doesn't matter whether it was you or someone else with a large bankroll getting lucky.  I was acting to defend the site, not to attack any particular player.

Doog, let's do not make up reality, the change was made to protect the bankroll from the swings caused precisely by Nakowa and ONLY by Nakowa, for the simple reason he is the only one pushing max profit.

Changing the max profit while he was playing was kinda unfair and counter productive, there's no shame in admitting a mistake, you already apologized for this to Nakowa and IMO we should just move on.

Max profit will be soon at 0.5%, IMO is a decent compromise (even if I prefer optimal kelly) and anyhow any change to this or other parameters should be announced with at least 12h advance. This way Nakowa can prove to all us naysayers how his strategy really works.

My bet is his strategy is just BS, and he will go busto long before the house.

Don't feed her, Dooglus, that will only strengthen the unbearable lust she feels for you.

Instead, you just need to let her down easy.

Or... Maybe you two could "partner up", "merge assets", and "start a new baby".

Call it;

If nobody was making huge bets causing the bankroll to plummet then I wouldn't have made the change, that's true.  And nakowa was the only one doing it.

So in that sense I made the change because of nakowa.

But he sees it as a personal attack and was offended by it.  It wasn't personal.  It was for the good of the site's bankroll, not an attack on nakowa.

I doubt it makes any sense trying to explain that to him.  He thinks that the lag on the site is somehow working against him too.  He's not being rational at the moment.

I just checked whether LetsF*ck.com was available.  It wasn't.  And I wouldn't recommend going there.  NSFW indeed.

 :D

Doog, let's make this more clear:

You did make the change because of me, not "in a sense". And in a sense, it IS a personal attack. I played by rules you set, and you fought back by changing rules, is that what "provable fairness" is about?

I do NOT see it as me being offended, I see it as you being UNFAIR.

You said I'm taking things personal, but in fact, it's you taking things personal:


If you're a true believer of mathematics as you alleged, you should know it's maths, or variation that causinng the bankroll to plummet, NOT me, a player who plays by rules! But you think it's me doing it, WOW! you surprised me!

Whereas you're under the great pressure, you always choose the wrong direction. Otherwise, you're a nice guy.

About the lagging, I'm clearly not the only one who got hurt. I had no proof, so I use the word "supect", and hoping you can prove yourself clear. That's all.

Nakowa: just use a third party tool to check your rolls, they will completely match what you had during your last sessions - the site is PROVABLY FAIR, meaning that you can check for yourself that there was no cheating, and that's a fact. The lag, if it existed at all, had absolutely no effect on the dice numbers. This is non debatable, Dooglus already proved himself uploading a screenshot, you can check by yourself using a third party tool - end of the story.

If you think the problem here was the max profit %, no problem - in a while you will be able to prove to us how your strategy beats the house if the max profit is taken to 0.5%.

Doog, could you give me the log of JD's chat room, where you said it, and hence I cannot "quote" you here in the forum.

Nakowa is still going.  I'll just leave this here:

"One observer recorded a video of the Just-Dice’s public bet log which shows Nakowa beginning Friday night with over $111,000 in losses before winning a single bet. At the risk of making the understatement of the century, things soon turned around for Nakowa in a big way."

http://www.dailydot.com/news/biggest-bitcoin-win-gambling-history-nakowa/

Was JD rigged when you started playing, unrigged to allow many investors to flee and the site to record a large loss, and then rerigged as you came back to play?  You're making it sound that you only started losing after dooglus publicly changed the rules.  That the game was 'totally different' when the betting limit was reduced.  How totally different was it when you were losing early on?  Leave aside gambler's fallacies in the process.

I made the change because of what was happening to the bankroll.  It doesn't matter who was causing it to happen.  It doesn't matter who you are.  I would have reacted the same way if any other anonymous bettor was causing the site's bankroll to plummet.


No.  Provable fairness is about proving that the numbers you get are chosen fairly, nothing else.  It proves that when you say "I bet 60 BTC that a random number will be bigger than 50.5" we don't and can't pick a number lower than 50.5 to make you lose.  It proves that we have no control over the number that is picked.  Please take the time to understand provable fairness and then you won't have doubts about lag etc.


And I have proved myself clear.  I even provided a screenshot.  I linked to third party tools that allow you to reproduce the rolls.  What more do you need?

It's suspecious about lagging, not "provably fair". With the same algorithm, the game could simply ignore the previous winning result, and place another bet (win or lose, doesn't matter, equivalent to raise the house edge two folds higher), and give the player a tremendous hit, especially when betsize is large. Don't know whether I've made myself clear.

Nakowa, let's put it this way:

As an investor, I'm the house. You won quite a lot of money from me and other investors. I watched you and I never thought you cheated, I'm 99.9% sure you are honest and playing in a fair way. I'm also 99.99999999% sure J-D is completely legit, and that you cannot beat the house edge if you play long enough. You can be lucky 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 times in a row, but not indefinitely.

Thus, I dare you to prove your strategy really works. If it really works you will be able to bankrupt the house. Its your money against mine, just play long enough until us or you go busto.

If you don't, it would just be like admitting you acknowledge there is no strategy, no patterns to spot, just luck and variance. Honestly, in that case I would be happy for you. You would have come out from your delusion, learnt a big lesson and cashed in a huge profit in the process.

What do you say?

:) I do have a stetegy, but not the kind with gambler's fallacy. JD's game has an exploit, by which I could easily create large variation. I've talked about that before, but no body believes me. And then, I proved by actions, won again and again, reaped the whole profit, until I was beaten by Doog changing rules. Believe it or not, if I was not UNFAIRLY trapped, I might well win more.

However, most people here tend to believe they truly are masters of Mathematics, with biased wishful thinking. No one could have that LUCK, used 700 bankroll (the maximum down I had), up to at most 16000. That's not luck, that's only because JD has something wrong. I'm reluctant to elaborate what's the exploit. I have no obligation to do so.

(NOT as people imagined that I knew the seed. I don't know the seed. I'm even reluctant to change my client seed, only changed once in the last session, because my loss is too unusual. Doog once suspected I hacked into JD's server, but he understand no one can copy data from a harddrive and leave no trace.)

Since I don't believe we treated Nakowa fairly, I would be willing to take this a step further.  [But I doubt this will be popular among investors, and I don't know how difficult this would be to implement].

Subject to ONE PROVISION, I would be willing to credit Nakowa's account by an amount equal to all the losses he has taken since the change was made.  

HERE'S THE PROVISION: His funds are *locked* at JD until the total volume of his bets is twice* the bet volume of the voided sequence.  I.e., he must keep betting and cannot withdraw any funds until his total bet volume is high enough**.  

*the reason I am saying twice the volume is to account for the fact that had Nakowa's bets after the change been winning bets, then he would have likely kept his winnings happily.

**I guess he must also exceed the volume within 7 days or so, or he forfeits this back to the investors.

EDIT: I am assuming we lock his account after the credit such that his total locked balance is higher than the credited amount by some factor that we would negotiate. 

Are you saying that if max profit is restored to 1% you will be able to bankrupt the casino if you play long enough?

I think most investors and doog will absolutely not agree with you on this.

And, since other changes might be made, what's the point whether I win or lose?

I'm saying: if Doog fixed the exploit I used, which he still didn't, (he just fixed me, directly) and let mathematics run the casino, I would go bankrupted if I play long enough.

BTW: I saw at least 3 dolphins got hunted today in JD.

Dolphins?  ???

This one for example: https://just-dice.com/roll/141480279
Lost a 90% change bet, -416.2381393 BTC.

Nakowa, you have proven even a complete idiot can be a good gambler.  You are like one of those idiot savants who cannot brush their own teeth but can count cards through a 8 deck shuffle.

Dolphins < Whales


So: what should Dooglus do to "unfix" you, so you can keep exploiting this yet unfixed flaw in J-D?

Crazy bets like that are like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

Nakowa, you are a fraud.  Your baseless accusations against Dooglus are a complete fraud.

Dooglus will raise the max bet back to 0.50% which means it will be 200+ BTC at midnight UTC timezone tonight. This isn't for you, its for other players, so don't come back. Go play at SatoshiDice 1.9%. 

Nobody wants you to play at Justdice.com anymore. Have fun on letsdice or others.

1. namecalling reveals that you IQ is in a very low level.
2. you pushed Doog, resulting him making irrational decision.
3. you must lost a lot because of me, THANK YOU!

Allover, hit the ignore button for integrity42. We all have, he's an idiot.

I don't know exactly how much you lost since the change, let's call it 2000 BTC.  You deposit an additional 2000 BTC into any one of your alias accounts and we credit the same account with 2000 BTC.  You get 4000 BTC to begin gambling with.  But you can't withdraw anything until you gamble twice the volume of the voided sequence.  You are free to deposit more at any time, however.  

If the investors believe in the math, they would take this bet, since the expected profit is positive and we are in the business of accepting 1% biased risk up to 1/2 the Kelly Criterion.  


How can we make other changes?  You may use any one of your alias accounts.  This part of the game is proveably fair.  

LMAO

Mechs, you amaze me. There is no "good" dice gambler, the dice is completely random. The dice is not black jack, poker or sports betting.

Nakowa, you did not answer my question:

the fool has balls of steal and somehow accumulated a huge bankroll.  variance works in his favor since when he gets on a win streak with huge max profit, it causes a run in the bank.  My guess is it will happen again and soon.

Nobody will click the ignore button on my posts.   Because they agree Nakowa is a fraud. Nakowa stay away from justdice.com. Nobody cares about you playing there anymore.

Take your bitcoins and go somewhere else. Dooglus putting the profit back to 0.50%, and investors have already made back 5000BTC without you with low profit 0.25%.

SO investors want you to stay away. Go play at satoshidice for 1.9% edge.

I simply don't believe doog and the investors have the courage to do so. Futhermore, even if they are willing to do so, I'm sort of reluctant get involved, since Doog still failed to prove he didn't change anything other than max profit.


Were you me, what would you do?

Dooglus is putting the max bet back to 200BTC in a few hours... 

But nobody wants you to play there anymore because you are such a complainer and fraud. 

Go play at satoshidice 1.9% edge.

If you don't tell me the real exploit, I can't fix it.

You have told me two different stories about how you win:

1) "the min and max are too far apart; that allows me to 'create variance'"

I fixed that by decreasing the gap between min and max.  For all players.

2) "WLWL is the most common sequence; exploit that 'fact'"

WLWL isn't the most common sequence, so there's nothing to fix.

Now you're telling me that the real exploit is neither of the two things you previously told me it was.

How much did you lose because of nakowa?

As a investor (albeit small) I'm all for this.

You forgot to click the ignore button.

Will do! Sir!

I have offered to help you understand the proof twice now, but you fail to respond.

Which part are you having trouble understanding?  I'm quite patient and should be able to help you see how it works.

I couldn't be you because I believe J-D is legit and sha256 has no known flaws, and finally I know the odds are against you, and unless you cheat you cannot *beat* the odds in the long run, you can just get lucky in the short/mid term.

But, let's say I'm you, and I believe there is a flaw in JD that allows me to "spot patterns" and thus beat the house in the long run. Let's say I know the exploit is still there, but Dooglus "fixed" me in some other way.

I would just ask Dooglus to "unfix" me, so I can prove everybody I can destroy the house. In this case "Nakowa" would have written a page in history.

So: how do we "unfix" you, Nakowa? Many investors might support your cause and ask Dooglus.

Dooglus,  Nakowa is trolling you.  Don't feed the troll. 

Keep calm and carry on. 

So, now you want me to tell you for nothing? After you being UNFAIR to me so many times?

1. Doog, you have the data, please check it, and tell them this is close to true:


2. Doog, please send me the log of JD's chat room of recent three days, so that I can "quote" you.

TO RAMPION:
I'm not quite good at thinking about unrealistic situations, and your unfix is not realistic. (Returning my last 2000BTC? I don't think you and JD investors are willing to do this.)


TO DOOGLUS:
I said in the previous post:

You didn't answer anything about this.

I never proposed that - it was Peter R who did. I just ask you how did Dooglus "fixed" you (without fixing the alleged exploit), so we can ask him to "unfix" you.

In the meanwhile, the bankroll skyrocketed to 45k - max profit will be soon at 0.5%, meaning you will be able to bet up to 225BTC using your usual 2x type of bet. Big enough for you to do your thing, Nako?

Nakowa go away. You are a fraud.  Your accusations against dooglus are a joke.

Take your money and leave.  We changed the max bet because we don't want you to play at justdice anymore.

Now Dooglus is putting the max bet back to 200+BTC, but it is not for you.

Go play at SatoshiDice 1.9% edge.

You once claimed to be emotionless in the trollbox.  For having no emotions, you are one whiny little bitch. 

Either Nakowa is:
1. Trolling
2. Playing dumb
3. Truly dumb
4. There is a language barrier

I honestly do not know which one it is

Seems like 1 through 4.

Either way, I hope he doesn't come back when max bet is back to 230BTC in a few hours.

English definitely does not seem to be his native language based on his grammar.  He will come back when he seems someone else win big and then think he can do better. I actually am concerned with investment way up and the max bet approaching 250, he can cause a lot of damage with variance on his side again.

Are you trying to use reverse psychology? Its too obvious to be true :D :D :D

No.

If he's going to call doog a cheater, he should not play at just-dice. very simple.  hes a fraud.

There is no need, he will eventually play again.  Just a matter of when.

No.

He's not allowed to play again.  Are you reading this Nakowa?  Stay away from just-dice. we raised the limit to 230BTC for other whales. not for you.

:) I do have a stetegy, but not the kind with gambler's fallacy. JD's game has an exploit, by which I could easily create large variation. I've talked about that before, but no body believes me. And then, I proved by actions, won again and again, reaped the whole profit, until I was beaten by Doog changing rules. Believe it or not, if I was not UNFAIRLY trapped, I might well win more.

However, most people here tend to believe they truly are masters of Mathematics, with biased wishful thinking. No one could have that LUCK, used 700 bankroll (the maximum down I had), up to at most 16000. That's not luck, that's only because JD has something wrong. I'm reluctant to elaborate what's the exploit. I have no obligation to do so.



On the one hand: I agree the game has an exploit he has found, and I find it odd that there are so many intelligent people on here just continuously saying it's luck. It would have been luck if he won once or twice, but he showed he could win continuously over an extended period of time.

On the other hand: He should be reluctant to elaborate on the exploit since he's part of a competing business and that favors him, but that fact also makes you wonder why he still isn't playing. Reducing the max bet doesn't change strategy or eliminate the exploit ... it just causes it to take more time to bleed the house dry. Regardless if your mad the rules were changed, most people would still be playing if they could basically print money.

The investment on the site is back at 45,000BTC... dooglus is raising the max profit to 230BTC in a few hours.

Nobody cares about your useless posts.  Since you started posting, just-dice investment went from 30,000BTC to 45,000BTC.... Just-dice won back 5,500BTC and is now positive.  Obviously nobody believes you and they trust dooglus. 

Meanwhile your plan to lie about dooglus just to promote your own site (letsdice) is failing.  Everyone is playing at just-dice. Nobody is playing at letsdice, nobody plays at any of the other dice sites.  Your attempt to tell people that dooglus is a cheater is a scam and you are fraud.

Nobody cares about your useless posts. Take your money and go away and never play on just-dice again. You are a fraud.

Someone showed the probability was a little over 2%. That's 1 in 50. Improbable things do happen. The happen quite frequently, it's called the law of large numbers :)

But I honestly hope Dooglus puts everything back and you play on. I have been known to be wrong on occasion.

Here's his winning and associated probability cloud up to near the point where the max bet % was changed.  [sorry if you seen this a few times already].  Bugpowder produced something similar too.

https://i.imgur.com/ooGBuvh.gif

LOL. not a gambler..

Gotta know when to hold'em! ;)

In order to be winner you've got to quit a winner, Nakowa this is your big chance to walk away for awhile as a winner.

Peter R thanks for posting that graphic, it tells the story quite well.

Regarding Let's Dice when I go to register it requires that I either have an invite link/code or the system will assign me a sponsor, so yes, from a new user perspective you are forced to be in a multilevel marketing set up - I don't know what your developers told you.  I wish you luck all the same.

The new 0.5% max bet starts in a few minutes.

I hope you come back ;D

I think the reason he's stopped playing is because his luck ran out and he has realised he had nothing more than luck on his side.

All this FUD about the site being unfair is just that - FUD.  His goal is clearly to discredit Just-Dice with a view to gaining traffic at his own pyramid scheme dice site.

If he has a strategy that works when the max bet is 300 BTC then it will also work when the max bet is 75 BTC.  You just bet a quarter as much on every bet.  Nothing else changed.  But he doesn't have a working strategy, he has superstition, too many coins, and a disregard for their worth.

So he says he has an exploit that is different than the previous two he told me were "the exploit".  So is he lying this time, or was he lying the previous two times?  (That's not an exclusive 'or').

I'm not sure what the dynamics here are but I'm pretty sure this is not how most casino operators talk to their whales. Not that this means it's bad.

I'm wondering though if you want him to continue playing? Or would you still rather not have his business considering the stress it brings?

Yeah, I don't understand people's argument that the site isn't fair. Out of all of the BTC gambling sites, you seem to be the most open and honest and communicate with your "customers" both here and on your site. The wonderment I have is that "... nothing more than luck [was] on his side." That may be true, and he might be the only one who ever knows unless you or someone else finds an exploit, but it was an awful lot of luck for one person. I just hope the majority of people aren't jumping to "luck" because they don't like him.

I think Dooglus is right.  This guy spreads lies and tries to discredit J-D and Dooglus.  Dooglus is a man of honor while Nakowa is a crieton.  I do not know if he has a actual system that works better than hitting random bets. I do know he is dangerous due to his bankroll and his success at breaking the bank is due to psychology.  Negative variance for bankroll causes divestments, which causes few investors to shoulder more variance, causes more variance and so forth.

You have to admit, the psychology is opposite of what it should be.  People divested on the way down and only re-invested after significant profits on the way partially back up. Really, if any strategy, you should invest on a large variance swing down and divest on a large variance swing up.

RS: I do not think anything said here has any effect on whether or not Nakowa plays at the site.  He is either a compulsive delusional gambler or a man with a system. Either way, he will return to J-D since Dooglus pays out and offers the fairest odds and largest max profits per bet.  That is at least until something better comes along.

TO DOOGLUS:


You didn't answer anything about this. YES, once again, you ignore the real question.

And Yes, it's FUD.

NOT telling you the truth about exploit is not lying. You're an OP of gambling site, you should study it by youself, if you could.

Again, out of nothing, you call me lier; when I put the site profit to -5k, you called me a cheater when you knew I played by rules. As of the exploit, I repeat again, you didn't fixed, although it'd be quite simple, you just cannot figure it out.

You only fixed me, most likely by ignoring some results of big winning bets. The result? After you fixed me, the system subsquently fixed other three dolphins within 24 hours, the site's income roared, 1000 BTC in a day. How long did JD take to recover from -2000 to 0 in the July? You experienced that: several weeks.

Even some of your investors know you're being UNFAIR to me, don't deny it.


You know this post is not about the strategy (which you're so curious), it's even not about luck. This post is about you being UNFAIR.

You're distracting, please answer the real question. Or (not an exclusive or), it just doesn't matter, players on JD should have FUD.

I've been patient along all conversations with you, and never did a single name calling. You and your supporters (I've never seen in anywhere that so many underdeveloped people gathered around other than JD chatroom, OH, among endlessly coming beggars.) constantly called me numerous times, cheater, thief, scammer, and with no proof, just with hatred. I'm tired of this.

You never know when you did something wrong, how to correctly apologize. After you left 1300 digit in my balance, when shit happened (YES, someone else lost that figure, NOW YOU KNOW WITHOUT FIXATION SPECIFICALLY TO ME, I MIGHT WELL WIN A LOT WITH THAT 1300), you never made an appropirate apology to the investors. Instead, you were enjoy people screwing me in public. And after many times you being UNFAIR to me, you never say a single "sorry" to me.

I have no further incentive to discuss with you. After all, you build your reputation in the community through a very long time, and in normal situations, you're upstanding, honest, but when tremendous pressures coming, you just cannot do things by principles.

It's not me who is discrediting Just-Dice, it's you, YOU ARE.


Think it through, Doog, you're supposed to be a nice guy. I think the conversation is OVER.

Here is the summary as I take it: you found an exploit, used it, ran up a big profit, exploit is still there but dooglus sabotages your bets.

So wouldn't it be logical to create dozens, if not hundreds of new accounts, keep using the system and bankrupt the site?  Dooglus can't know all those accounts are yours.  Smaller bets just mean you bankrupt the site at a slower pace, but if you use many accounts you'll achieve your desired goal.  Use TOR if you need dozens of different IP addresses to achieve your desired outcome.  You'll be very wealthy and get your revenge on JD.  What could be better?

Lag doesn't affect the results.  The rolls are all fixed the instant you pick your client seed.  I'm not ignoring anything.  Maybe you haven't made yourself clear.  And if the site was to "ignore" a bet due to the DDoS attack that is ongoing, you could just try placing it again.  The result would be the same.


At least you admit it.


It's often hard to understand what you're trying to say.  What is the real question?


Suits me.

Max bet is 200 bitcoin, easily high enough for nakowa to give the site a run for its money? Unless he actually thinks its rigged now...

1. Creating dozens of accounts won't help me, and I've already done that. You just missed the point.
2. I AM WEALTHY, before I won 11k from JD.
3. There's no REVENGE. I don't hate Doog or JD. I'm still considering whether I should invest JD, since JD now is a very effective whale-hunter.

Nothing you say make sense.  You seem liked a bored guy with a lot of coins and in need of some attention.

This. An early adopter is now rich and had some good luck winning bitcoins. Now he wants to be the center of attention.

To be honest this discussion is getting tired. Nakowa, the max bet is now 200 bitcoin, apart from that the site is the same as it was. Go bet some bitcoins.

YES, I have to think so now.

You have succeeded in becoming tiresome

I think he is just after the attention :-)

The site is back like you were never there. Already positive profit, and 200+BTC max profit.

Everybody trusts dooglus, so nobody is paying attention to your fraud accusations about him.

Maybe you should admit you are wrong and apologize?

Dooglus apologized, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303852.0.

Let's put an end on this.

come to JD and roll a few times, just to show there arent any hard feelings ;)

JD profit is now up :D Mouahahahah

so much for his 'exploit'

don't poke the bear

i would love it if he came back

He might be able to take all the profit ::)

Well, I guess this is the origin of the "investors turmoil" when max profit was taken to 1/4 Kelly. Those of us who never had any doubt about "math working", and also about Nakowa coming back over and over, didn't divest, so we were hit by the big losses while we waited for math and gamblers psychology to their thing. When max profit was taken down to 0,25%, the only way to *try* to recoup quickly that losses was to multiply by four our original investment.

I did so and it worked well, but anyhow it sucks because we were forced to either a) commit four-fold the amounts of coins we were investing in the first place, or b) to stick with huge losses for long.

If you divest when it's up a few k, and invest when it's down a few k, you will have higher returns than the average and make up your loss. This because when it is up a few k there are more investors and less to earn, whereas when it is down a few k there are less investors and hence more returns on your capital. Basically do the inverse of what the greedy/scared investor does.

That's illogical.

When the site is down, and there are fewer investors, you get higher returns and losses.

Sure losses are higher too when there is less invested capital and you have a higher percentage of bankroll.

But since on average house edge makes 1%, it makes on average profit.

And when house has made a loss, I think the turnover of gambling goes mostly up due to gamblers getting courageous, while the amount of investors goes mostly down due to them getting scared, so an investment gets more bang for it's buck so to speak. You get a larger % of the bankroll and there is more turnover on it. So on average you make more money then.

I'm not talking about the investor's fallacy, indeed chances for house to go up or down are the same when house is in profit or at loss.

Am I making sense or does it look still illogical to you?

This is the part I don't get. It doesn't matter when you invest, whether the profit is up or down, or what kind of bets are being made, your chance of winning/losing remain the same (minus the 1% edge).

You are right, that part is not true.

It's not because you will have higher returns than the average investor that you will make up your loss.

I don't see your point.
You say that because current profit (-3k) is low, it should increase in the future?

what a story, incredible  :o :o :o

you dug a 2 year old thread just to say that its impressive story? seriously? whats the point?

I think this is actually appropriate for the occasion!

http://fcdn.mtbr.com/attachments/downhill-freeride/704128d1359601749t-new-school-gravity-bikes-thread-necromancy-thread-necromancy-demotivational-poster-1271554886.jpg

Lol i was wondering where this thread came from! Well... looks like post padding to me to build up post count for his signature campaign ;). Don't Mods have to lock threads and archive them if they are more than a year old and no bumps or activity?

the point is: remember gamblers, you can have a super bankroll, and lost all

if u don't like this we can cancel the post, and stop

if we will remember gamblers that loose much money people will stop gambling and there wont be any gambling sites

I was wondering a few days ago but I didn't wanted to bump a very old thread but since it's already bumped I would like to ask what happened to letsdice?

can i ask you how its connected with this thread or im missing something? as far as i understand he lost on just dice

He's still up on JD. He left with his profits to make his own website or something called "letsdice".

allover/Nakowa has a letsdice signature, and there is a line "From now on, I'll only talk about projects I'm involving, https://letsdice.com, for example." in his OP. So I think he is the owner of letsdice.