Bitcoin Forum

The fact that price lacks the momentum to decline further after the bounce starting from the support at $9,200 indicates that price will remain in an oscillating move pattern within the range from $9,200 to $10,000 in the short term. Since price fails to dip below the support at $9,200 in the past 2 sessions, support at $9,200 is effective, meaning that price will mainly focus on a small-range bounce in the next session with weak strength.

Feel free to leave your comments below

See more news here: https://www.aicoin.com

You are right, but the technical analysis with bitcoin is not true most of the time. I lost 50 percent of my money with technical analysis 2-3 times. I think you should be a bit cautious when opening new orders with bitcoin.

I second that, and maybe me and the poster above are not good at TA but I don't think it is everything in this game. I would trust fundamental and sentiment research over technical analysis but there is still some merit to TA of course.

But we have seeing the turn of the event after the news come in that polomiex has been bought off by Goldman. Currently the price is above  $10,400  and I expect that bitcoin's price may touch  $14,000 before the end of this week. Hope more big interest will start to patronise bitcoin from this time hence fort and the limitations created since December will be a  thing of the past!

A similar trend was noticed on the 18th and 21st of this month where 10,200 USD looked like times where the markets follow a sharp rise and then a sharp dip. On the 15th, 16th, 23rd, 24th and 25th of the month the price hovered just above 9400 which makes it look like a good support point for Bitcoin for the short term, although there's no guarantee that this trend would continue since if we again consider the previous short-term dips, there seems to be an on-going momentum where in the price tends to rise above 10.5 K and then a subsequent selling pressure comes into picture to bring the price back down to 9K. There's certainly chances that it could dip below 9K if a strong selling pressure arises due to market sentiments just like the 7K dip's on 9th and 11th of this month.

As always the price of bitcoin will mostly be driven by news. If there's no negative news then the 9.2k support will hold and the price will move upwards as we've seen today. If there's a big negative news story then the support can fall in an instant. TA is great for identifying support and resistance but it's useless at predicting news stories and market feeling.

Just like the price of bitcoin can go down to over 10%+ in a few days, It can also go up by the same amount in both cases there is this Snowball effect and some exchanges utilize a stop-limit so some traders might buy in at 10000+ since they know it would continue rising, the price of bitcoin at the time of writing this post is at around 10200 so regarding the OP I think 10000 seems like a reasonable support, especially if it ends up hitting 11k tomorrow this would slightly ensure it wouldn't go below 10k I mean it most certainly could.. in the end of the day bitcoin is unpredictable so HODLing sounds good  :)

I'm sorry to say, but every time you (or anyone else within your group) analyse the market, you adjust your initial opinion to follow that what happened afterwards. In other words, if the price is going up, you expect it to increase further, and if the price is going down, you expect it to go down further. If the price seems to jump up and down between a certain range, you then point out that you expect it to stay like that for a longer while - there is no risk or real forward thinking available. It's just moving with the flow of the market, and that's really it. It's basically the same as what CryptoCoinsNews used to do, and to a certain extent still is doing.

So how is this recent development sounds, it seems that Russia is ready to embrace blockchain.
Vladimir Putin endorses blockchain and says that Russia can't be late in the race.
Considering the fact that lately, we have heard info that Russian banned bitcoin - this is somewhat great development.
This is more detailed info on what is going on: http://bitcoinist.com/vladimir-putin-endorses-blockchain-russia (http://bitcoinist.com/vladimir-putin-endorses-blockchain-russia)

True and now it seems we are testing resistance at 10500$~ Momentum doesn't look too bad. We have had higher highs and higher lows on the 4 hour chart until 11.7k and then a pullback which in my opinion showed that the bulls are in control since the bears weren't able to break support at 9200. We could see a test of the 11.7k resistance again this week. I think it can reach 13k this week if we are able to break it.

Totally agree and I think traders are now influencing the price more as they are taking advantage of these up down prices bitcoin keeps exhibiting and as long as we have traders making money off these changes I expect a break below 9k then will go further up to 11k-12k as the buy orders will be triggered which will push prices up once againn.

9,200 is further down, before then is a trend at 10,100 slowly ascending from way back last May or so confirmed quite a few times along the way.    Then even recently we've see 9909 as a fib level showing some support before getting down to 9200 or so.

If you do mean short term we'd usually have to break those other levels first before we get to 9200.  Its always possible theres big news I guess

I definitely agree that bear momentum faded out. That doesn't necessarily mean we'll range. In fact, 10 hours later, we've already broken your range and tested the $10,400s. Bears were asleep at the wheel, and bottom shorters have already been rekt.


How do you know that TA was generally responsible? Your losses might be due to an unprofitable trading system and/or bad TA. 2-3 data points isn't enough evidence to draw conclusions.


I disagree. When the market is bullish, the market loves to rally on good news. When the market is bearish, good news hardly matters at all. The key is supply and demand, not news.

that may be, but being bad at TA is not the only reason. the thing is TA doesn't work for bitcoin most of the times specially when things are not happening normally. for example based on my experience the round number of $10k and the like area always a big support for bitcoin price and it held up real nicely but that was not enough to keep price up against all the manipulation dumps so price crashed down to $6000

and right now it is just sideways action. it won't go anywhere, neither up nor down. the range is between $11k and $9k.

Bitcoin seems to have a solid support level at $9k.

Today we tested $10k and went straight through. Price shot upwards of $10.7k as we speak.

I don't think that we're going to be firmly above water in terms of $10k yet.

Especially with such a drastic change of 12 percentage points, I personally expect a correction down to the $10k region once this bull run is over, and for it to move sideways and consolidate until the next pump comes around.

I think now that the bottom (support) was tested and could not be broken, it is time that price starts testing the upper resistance now. and with price currently at $10700 I think that is what we are going to see in the following 48 hours where price reaches the last high it tested before dropping down and see if the market is ready for a breakout or not.

in any case I expect a higher high this time compared to last time which was $11700 because of the trend of higher lows and higher highs. the breakout however, may need breaking of $12500

True, news hardly affect bitcoin anymore unless they are really huge. When it was rallying up to 20k there were a lot of bad news, the huge fees and a lot of platforms like steam dropping bitcoin as payment didn't do anything and the price kept climbing up. The same happened with the recent crash, a lot of good news of regulations and what not but again, didn't really matter.

I really disagree, I think that news shapes the way that the market moves. Of course sometimes there are periods of panic, either FOMO or fear of loss and then news is almost irrelevant for a while but these are not smart investors. Smart investors will be able to decipher what is going on and understand the way the market is moving and that is indicated by the news and how that will in time be interpreted and influence things.

I'd say that's just supply and demand. It's pretty standard Wyckoff cycle behavior:
http://d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/market_analysis/wyckoff1/wy-01-accumdist.png

The top is higher than everyone expects, and the bottom is lower than everyone expects. The market likes to punish as many people as possible. Bears get squeezed at the top, bulls at the bottom. There was nothing manipulative about the dump to $6,000.....it was a standard BTC capitulation. I've seen it many times before. Good traders account for this and wait for a high volume capitulation before entering or exiting positions.


Markets range most of the time. But in this case, we only have one high and one low, so I wouldn't call it a range. This head-and-shoulders pattern (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3002334.msg31136509#msg31136509) is still looking possible.

TA does work, specially with support and resistances, the problem is that people try to predict whether bitcoin is going to break the support/resistance before it does. The correct way of playing is to wait for confirmation and then go in.

TA can allow us to follow patterns and trends however news is still great influence to the price. We can say that 9.2K would be the current support but if we consider other factors such as when negative news would come out, we can’t necessarily follow TA. The moment when all hell breaks loose and people start to panic sell, the TA won’t follow and the price will likely dip even lower than the support level of 9.2K

Exactly, as soon as shit hits the fan people start to panic and TA cannot effectively predict peoples emotions. I think within certain ranges TA can show how the price moves, in terms of volatility in a fairly stable market (stable in terms of no major good or bad news) but beyond that it's really quite redundant.

Yup, the chart doesn't look great, but we're experiencing fairly stable market. So, here I'm still holding start to panic even Down 50% of my portfolio. I have that much faith that the market will back 50% or more so.

The support around 9k held strong, that seems like it could be the new bottom but we'll have to see if it's tested again. If the price can get back up to the resistance at 11.8k in the next few days then I think we could be in for a nice bull run. I wouldn't be surprised to see the price ping pong between 9.5k and 11.5k for a week or two first.

Chart actually looks fairly solid to me, 9k support was majorly tested and held strong and then the last few days it seems there's been some solid support at 10k. There's now resistance around 11k which there wasn't much of previously but it looks like that's going to fall in the coming hours or days. I think we will be to testing 11.8k soon and after that it could be a fairly clear shot back to 15k.

We just broke a daily downtrend from 17-12-2017 so it looks really good now. There is definitely a tightening pattern and we will probably see a break in the next few days. We might potentially see a lower high on the daily but could also be a higher high, we will have to wait.

Well, this will continue to last for the next few weeks starting between $ 9000 to $ 10,000 continue up and down.
Will continue to survive, but I do not feel bitcoin will experience a big fall back.
If I am right, after the many issues this all ended bitcoin will skyrocket to reach $ 19,000 even beyond it.

I don't see any optimism towards the $15,000 mark yet, especially because of the fact that $13,000 is going to be the next resistance point. It's however positive that the market climbed back to +$11,000 levels faster than expected.

I still don't believe that we're entirely safe from sub $10,000 levels, but at least we can say that the bottom of just under the $6000 mark is the actual bottom, where from here the next bottoms will only become higher.

Let's hope that the SegWit adoption boost due to the released 0.16 core client will give the market that extra push. Current number of unconfirmed transactions is around 1000 while yesterday it was like 22,000.

I thought it would be the start of a new spam attack, but I'm glad it wasn't.

I agree that 13k will probably offer more resistance but I neglected to mention it because it's fairly close to the 12k figure. I think really from 11k through to 13k is just going to be a big wall of resistance but once that's broken down it really would signal a bullish trend.

There's a good chance we'll see sub 10k again but I don't think we will go below 9k unless there's some major negative news to cause it, that seems like the bottom to me now.

Segwit coupled with a decrease in transactions has really improved things and it now dispels all those people who were saying that bitcoin is useless as a payment system, I'm not sure quite how directly that will impact the price however.

i agree with your first post.
i think the $12k is a bigger resistance since it was tested multiple times (the near $12k not exactly $12k) and it dropped back down, and when that is broken we may see some FOMO buying because it is a breakout out of the resistance. with all the lines the TA fans draw on the charts they have to act on them sometime!
because of that $13k and up to $15k may prove to be smaller resistances.

Yes and talking about technical analysis and how the graph looks like, we can not simply jump to a conclusion that bitcoin is on its way to a big pump just what like happened last year. But as we can see in the graph, bitcoin is already in the 11K USD mark and seems on a real pump already so i don't think it will go down below 9.2K USD mark again.

Exactly my thinking, we tested it before a couple of times and are now beginning to test it again. We also tested lows around 9-10k and seem to have found a bottom there.

Given that there's security around 10k and the upside of buying at 12k is the price could quickly move through to 15k it's a much more attractive proposition than when the support wasn't defined so was still considered to be at around 6k.

The only bearish event that could test, and maybe break support at 9.2 k$, is a possible sale of up to 40 thousand BTC and BCH by the MtGox bankruptcy trustee.

Funny (or rather very sad for the MtGox creditors), the sale already happened... So it might have contributed to the February crash.

https://i.imgur.com/KizIcRs.jpg

We did see a burst to ~11,500 dollars but that didnt last very long now price is dragging back to ~10500

I wonder whats causing all this when I thought we had progress, and for a second I thought bitcoin could actually be on its way to 19k or 20k dollars. We need to wait a little longer and see how the pump and dump traders will help push prices up and maybe above $15k