Bitcoin Forum

Price forms a short-term bottom after multi-testing the support at $9,300, though I believe a short-term uptrend will be likely, concerns about the resistance by $9,800 - $10,000 are also mentioned.

However, BTC manages to move above the significant level with the help of several bullish news and steps back to that area several times after the breakout, confirming the effectiveness of breakout. We expect the bounce to continue.

After the surge with expansion in volumes yesterday, price is stopped by the strong resistance without support from volumes today, indicating that bulls are still observing and waiting around current level.

If the head and shoulder pattern can be formed effectively, the possibility for another round of bounce can’t be excluded. To accomplish that, however, price must remain above the resistance at $11,800.

Now that the short-term bounce has been started, our strategy should turn into bullish as well. Basically, bounce will continue in the short term with resistance at $11,800 and $12,500, positions can be added at the same time.

Original by Kuang Ren, translated by AICoin Jami.

Feel free to leave your comments below

I don't think any all time high is coming any time soon.  Will stay the same or drop.  Too much optimism isn't good.  It leads people to lose money.

He based it on a pattern after all. I must say that it is quite useful to determine and predict the next price movements for stocks but in bitcoin's case it is useless and this is why I will advice you to not use it in speculating bitcoin's prices. I agree with you that all time will not come soon. Nevertheless, if it were to come true then many of us will be happy about it. For now, the best action is to watch market closely as the next movements can determine upcoming price changes.

It's too soon to say BTC will reach a new ATH just yet, it's only few days of uptrend. This very well might be just like last time reach till 11-12k and then drop back to 9-10k.

Do you have any chart based on your analyze? Honestly is glad to see your thought.
But I think, it's better to add also your chart. So, we can see the "big forecast" together.

Everyone likes to predict the bitcoin price, but until now (correct me if I am wrong), I didn't find anyone who can accurately predict the price of bitcoin...
I think, for the moment being, the price will keep on fluctuating around the $10k mark.

I think that we will see the resistance just under 12k broken in the next few days but I don't think we will move to a new ATH anytime soon. I think the market is going to keep experiencing volatility where bottoms are tested on numerous occasions. When the price reached 20k there was a huge influx of users and money and it will be hard to recover to that price again without that same influx of new money.

Every indicators in technical analysis are pointing towards an upward trend signaling a strong buy, but BTC has always proven to everyone that it is unpredictable and could go the opposite direction. Investors should still take caution in this market volatility, cost averaging method is the recommended strategy instead of going all in.

I noticed this formation this morning. I'd be cautious before taking a new position I've also heard this could be another bull trap. Theres some technical analysis pointing towards bitcoin testing recent lows before moving back up to the up trend. I love bitcoin so I know it will reach at least its all time high this year. One question that I have been thinking is if bitcoin is only at 20k by next Christmas, when the new year dip happens what will be the new support level. If we say we bottomed at 6k would a bottom of 10k next year be good progress. I think so

It is called "speculation" for a reason.

yeah mate this is speculation and speculation is always a guess value we are not bitcoin experts here and neither working in bitcoin organization so that we can tell the exact no of investor holding right now it all work like this here.

I think it's much too soon to be considering what the potential bottoms will be next year. We do not even know if there will be a new year dip or not. I do believe that it's largely down to psychological phenomena instead of external stimulus such as Chinese New Year.

Each time a new bottom is found it is always promising if that is higher than the previous bottom. In the scenario you described that would be progress but I think that many for now would still be hoping for a better scenario.

I've posted a couple times about this inverse H&S, and it's looking good. But remember, this pattern can easily morph into a sideways or bearish move. We are still well below the neckline.

If price holds above $11,200, the H&S is highly likely to play out. Confirmed above $11,800. (Bitfinex prices)


Yup, I'm still of the opinion that this could be part of a larger sideways consolidation that could last several months. I'm looking for continuation into the $14,000s but I'm not necessarily expecting an immediate attack on ATHs and resumption of the 2017 bull market.

This signifies that technical analysis wont really work anytime on crypto trading which isn't like on using it on Forex trading which most of the time price do really go along the way on where those indicators do go. As far as I know if technical analysis do form up head and shoulders it do go into bearish trend which is opposite on the thing being mentioning here by the OP. I might be wrong yet I'm not really seeing into technical aspects.

I did said the same thing last year when bitcoin is on the same season and is only around $1,000.
Can't deny that it's staying up until now but base on the analysis of OP when its able to get back at $11,000 which is very possible and we are near to it, we might see it coming.
I'm optimistic when it comes to bitcoin and holding but it lead me to regret but I didn't lose money.

The latter part of the bull run is actually not a good indicator to pay attention to, due to how speculation driven it was with the future markets going live at that point. It got the market hyped up beyond what would be justified without the future markets functioning as bullish trigger point. From there I personally consider $15k as the highest top to be the actual (non inflated) all time high. If we do happen to climb up slowly but surely towards $15k in the coming months, I consider it to be a great achievement, and that without much difference in the market. Usually breaking through an all time high that's far ahead of the current price is already a task on its own, but to make it form even more of an obstacle, it's slightly below the $20k level, which means that we also have to break through a very important mental barrier....

We are still far from being safe from price going down to sub-$10k.

It's safe to say that short term speaking BTC isn't going anywhere below $9k, but can't say the same with the psychological barrier of $10k which is a huge support level for the traders. It'll depend a lot on the events that follows in the next few days.

I would say that if BTC can get its price up to $11k+, then we're most likely going to see this pattern forming. I wouldn't say that it's going to be an all time high, but if BTC does get pumped to $11k+ in a short period of time, expect some FOMO buying.

nah. unless you mean a short term small bullish only up to $11800ish then yeah. otherwise i think we should not change stance to either bullish or bearish until price breaks out of either upper or lower prices of $12k and $9k respectively.
as long as it stays between these two, there will be the same ups and downs and volume will stay low. but if it breaks out the volume will increase and with it there will be a fast movement.

OP, I do not see any "head and shoulder" pattern. Plus aren't those patterns supposed to be bearish?

Correct me if I am wrong here because I'm quite sure that they are.  ???

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/2c/H_and_s_top_new.jpg

This is a confirmation of the tought I have some days back and I think this article really show the position of bitcoin. Bitcoin is more of the uptrend now than were we started last week. The bullish trend started when bitcoin break above  $10,250. I thing we should be heading toward  $15,000 so days to come. I have been really following somega thread here and I think this is one of those post that has been made concerning market position.

Trying to call a H&S in advance is a pointless crapshoot. Usually it turns into something else besides a H&S.

A new all time high is very far away!
Furthermore you may talk about an inverted head and shoulders pattern as the normal h&s is bearish, and not bullish!
We had a good run the last couple of days but the zone between 11k and 12k will show some strong resistance.
And right now we are struggling to hold 10500USD, plus sliding on the 4hr kumo.

There shouldn't really be anything in theory that suggests 10.5k offers any real resistance so I don't think it's worth focusing on. I believe that Bill Gates words hurt the price a little bit and that's why we saw the slight dip down from 11k. If the price does hold around 10.5k it's only further evidence that 9k was a sound bottom with strong support and that more bull runs are coming.

No good old Bill has no say in crypto.His words have no weight and therefore no influence on the price.
He is mostly talking nonsense when it comes to Bitcoin. We all know this.
He just doesn't understand it or doesn't want to.
Billy boy is one of the super rich who fear this technology and it's disruptive potential.
That's all we need to know. The rest what comes out of his mouth can be ignored.

There's some logic to that. But then again, this is usually how price discovery works in Bitcoin: exponential growth periods (bubbles) followed by mean reversion. In that sense $15,000 is still pretty "inflated" given that it's 15x over the 2017 yearly open.


I took the OP to mean an inverse head and shoulder pattern (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_bottom_reversal). They work as reversal patterns in both directions.

What the OP forgot to include:

The general consensus is that Bitcoin will stay in the $10,000 level for a longer time than expected that is why when it can be able to approach $11,000 + there will be a sudden profit-taking from many investors who are out to make some money out of their investment. The result is that the value will get back to the $10,000 again and again. Until now, there are no big stimulus on the market for Bitcoin to make big surges. We have no choice but to wait maybe after the end of the Q1 2018.

I don't mind. And with the current movement, you can make little profits pretty much everyday by riding those little ups and downs. TAs for charts don't often make right predictions. Btc has proven that time and time again. Though it's unlikely that we're not going to hit another ath this year. That i'm sure of