Bitcoin Forum

Am I reading this right?

The difficulty growth rate (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc) over the last 3 months has been about 100%/month.

So even if I get a 60 GH/s BFL miner (EDIT: at $1299, before the price increase), and start mining on October 1, with free electricity (which I don't have), assuming the 100% growth rate per month continues for the next year, then at the current exchange rate, it only just barely breaks even? A.K.A. Zero ROI.

(Mining dashbord (http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/404912396d).)

Using your criteria it's much worse than that:

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/cc632f9ecb

With 0 pool fees, misc costs and electricity you still wouldn't even earn back half what you put into it.

This is assuming your assumptions are accurate of course, but any way you slice it, it still doesn't look good.

It seems I forgot to state one of my criteria:

What are you basing your costs on?

$1250 60Gh Singles
or
$2500 60gh Singles?

Pre-April 1st cost or Post April 1st costs??

Your math is different then mine.

I am even by December

Yes, the network will continue doubling in size every 30 days .. forever.  Just like it did with video cards.  Oh wait..

Sure it won't double forever, unfortunately it doesn't have to in order to destroy the profitability of most ASICs for the foreseeable future. 

For all intents and purposes a doubling of hashrate for 6 months with tapering of growth after that and doubling forever gives us roughly the same profitability calculation for this scenario.

In fact 100% per month for 3-6 months might be optimistic considering thegenesisblock has us at 126% for last 30 days before a single 28nm ASIC has shipped.  Then again it seems so many of these manufacturers have a hard time with timely delivery so nothing is certain but I'd be happy if we only stick to 100% / month for the short term.

Here's my math (http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/5f7ffb4745) (screenshot below), which is crazy optimistic in every way, except for the non-overclocked, exactly as-specced hashrate. How does yours differ?


That's roughly consistent with my screenshot above. And it barely grows past that.

If I actually take delivery, I estimate I might get it in late Oct / early Nov. I'm postulating that since it looks like I won't even break even, that I should request a refund--and I'm here looking for second opinions.

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/3674/o5uu.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/35/o5uu.png/)

It's not a doubling in size, it's a doubling in hashrate. This is the ASIC revolution; the hashrate of each new device is increasing at a much faster rate then it did with video cards over the last couple of years.

It doesn't have to continue forever for my crazy optimistic calculations to serve as a benchmark or envelope; it just has to continue for 3 months or so. I don't see any reason why it's particularly likely to change in that time. If you do, please share.

Do you realize that by April you have the network at 120PH, May 240PH, June 480PH, July 960PH?  This growth is unsustainable.  The biggest gun out there at the moment is 2TH.  It'd take 60k of them in April or 2000 a day.  120K of them in May or 4000 a day.  240K of them in June or 8000 a day.  See where this is going?

How about you punch in the real difficulty, not some down tuned figure. It's 148 not 86.

Bitcoin Block Explorer agrees with you (https://blockexplorer.com/q/getdifficulty).

I'm new to the Mining Dashboard. I think maybe instead of starting from the main page, I started from someone else's estimate, so it plugged in their old difficulty. Thanks for the correction.

My new (crazy optimistic) calculation (http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/0c6158f68a) indicates that it won't even approach breaking even. Can anyone cite evidence to the contrary?

No, I didn't realize that. That's good info, and it's why I started this thread.

However, it seems to me that this growth rate only has to continue for about 2 months to make my purchase worthless or worse. Can you cite any evidence to the contrary, or that even this short-term continuation is unlikely?

Looks like you'll break even and after that the unit gets unplugged and put up for sale on Ebay. :P

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=148819199.80509&dcosts=1299&diff_mincrease=20&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=60000&diff_mincreasedecrease=1&btcusd=129.83&dpowcon=100&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=.15&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=0&action=calc#

tips

1MY8YHqe5n4oW6VR8JSf8jRDZwV6hjRJw6

^^ Interesting idea.

Here's another way of looking at the potential for continued long-term exponential growth (but I think it uses the same line of thinking). In the days of GPU, it took us 300-400 watts per GH/s. The network was at around 23TH/s total at the beginning of the year. So, there were 7-9 GW of energy dedicated to mining and "normal" network growth.

The first generation of devices now can convert 6-10W per GH/s. It took us about 10 months to get to this point, 1300TH/s as people convert their devices over, cash out, etc. So, with 30-70x more efficiency, we should expect 30-70x more hashrate, let's call it 1610TH/s. We're nearing the end of round 1, but not there yet and it took 10 months to get us here.

The second generation (bitfury/knc) are running at 1.0-1.6W per GH/s. That would move the needle if EVERYONE converted over to 3.75 to 10x more efficient. That would only bring it to 16PH/s for network total in however it takes for people to convert to more efficient units.

There are devices out there that are promising 0.6W per GH/s for release in 1Q 2014, and will again be subject to delivery issues, but if everyone moves to the new efficiency, we're talking another 2.6x jump at the worst, so 41.6PH/s.

In other words, there is no way that the network will reach 120PH in April, let alone 2014, without some big surprise event like - cost of power going down by 1/3 globally (not happening), a viral growth of participation in bitcoin (barrier to entry is still pretty high right now) or the announcement of a 0.2W per GH/s chip (which is also unlikely because the 0.6W per GH chips are a 28nm process and Moore's law would dictate that we're not tripling our efficiency in 5 months)

I upgraded to ASIC from FPGA. I mined on my FPGA units for over a year, and used the BTC I mined to upgrade. I paid a little over $700 each to upgrade my FPGA singles to 60gh ASICs. Each 60gh unit makes $871 worth of BTC per month at current price and difficulty. I will ROI in about a month. I can't complain.
I cashed out a ton of BTC and quit my job in April. Now I get to spend my time with my wife and daughter.
Thank you Bitcoin, and thank you Butterfly Labs.

Anybody seeing this http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/a94cee351d is ordering, unless they take the time to adjust the defult settings, i.e. it currently uses the hightest exchange rate--Mt Gox.

That said, does anybody know who is behind/developed that site?

My strategy has been mine and hold for over 2 years now, and it's working. If you measure ROI in BTC right after a parabolic rise, you end up with misleading numbers.
Yes Bitcoin is a better investment than mining gear. However, those of us that want to diversify have found mining to be a good hedge for holding.
My BFL ASICs were ordered in October and January. They are happily hashing away making me more than a full-time job ever did. They will ROI by the end of next month. That is a mathematical certainty. Yes, I would have made more if I held on to Bitcoin. Hindsight 20/20 and all that, I would have sold my every worldly possession and went ass-deep into debt to buy BTC last year, and sell them all at $266, but let's be real here, and stop spreading FUD.

Okay, in other words, you bought 600GH/s for $3510 (about $5.85 per GH) and are expecting delivery sometime in early 2014 and difficulty to stop rising so that you get an ROI. I assume that BFL is not your sole investment? Are you being "more risky" because you already are way in the black due to your previous efforts? Would you recommend that someone starting out go with BFL based on your experiences?

I did the same,used earnings from June 2011 for reinvestment of FPGA & ASIC's,no cash out of pocket since I started with $600 for GPU's.Just kept rolling it over  :D

Your "ride" on BFL units will be over by years end bro,don't kid yourself........unless you have free electric & more than 400GH in hashing power right now ::)

Good luck on getting your Monarch's by Feb,I've been burned & lied to too many times by BFL............never again  :P

I/we should of had our first day order units by Jan or Feb this year,I lost out on the "early adopter advantage" that the Avalon guys were lucky enough to get in on..................



@ amer,DO NOT buy from BFL,they WILL be late again & miss thier power targets AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! I promise you they have NOT learned ANYTHING!!!!!!!!!  >:(

Look to Bitmine in Nov,I am  :D

I honestly think that if difficulty goes so high that my singles are no longer profitable, the price of BTC will go up to compensate. When I was buying BFL FPGAs people were saying the same thing, but I mined profitably with them until I sent them in for the trade-up.
I would recommend BFL to anyone getting into mining, but don't count chickens before they hatch. I am not expecting to have my Monarchs by February. I expect Moore's law and Murphy's law to show their ugly heads. That does not deter me. Bitcoin mining and BFL have been good to me. I can't predict the future, but I can act on past experience. I will be patient. I will get my gear when I get it. I am pretty sure it will ROI, but there is no guarantee. I can live with that level of risk.
What I most certainly advise against is placing a pre-order with a company that has never delivered a product. That would narrow your choices down to Asicminer, Avalon, and BFL. I have about 50 block erupters that will probably never ROI. I will give them away as Christmas presents. Don't buy those. From what I hear, and I may be wrong, Avalon burned everyone except their first 300 batch 1 customers. That leaves BFL.
For anyone getting in, I would recommend buying and holding Bitcoin until the next parabolic rise, then buy mining equipment from a vendor with an established reputation. If you want to hedge on your BTC holdings, invest a percentage of your BTC into mining equipment.
Let us not forget what this is really all about. Every time someone hooks up a mining rig, the network gets stronger, and therefore more valuable. Bitcoin is the greatest threat to the banks in all history. Why should we spend time away from our families at jobs we hate, only to give more power to the assholes enslaving us. We should be spreading this like fire. Every single person that hates banks should be mining right now.

It sounds like you made a wise choice to invest in BTC when you did.  You used BFL to acquire those coins which was a separate investment choice and turned out to be sub-optimal in comparison to other potential investment methods.  Why you praise BFL for being profitable when in fact they taxed your acquisition of BTC prior to rising in price is anyone's guess.  In the end it was investing in BTC that made you so much money, BFL was just the acquisition vehicle that held more risk and returned less coins than other avenues available. 

I suppose if the number of BTC lost by purchasing with BFL rather than holding is judged to be a worthy cost for the hashrate they've let you generate to help the network you could praise them for that, but not for being a profitable method of BTC investment.

I'm curious how you consider mining and holding to be a hedge for buying and holding.  In both cases you end up holding BTC so how does one hedge against the other?  If maximum profits are desired shouldn't you just choose the method has you holding the most BTC at the end of the day?

My advice to the OP is to get refund if possible or if stuck with the machine then run it for the next 1-1.5 months and then sell it depending on market conditions for in hand ASIC sales to maximize returns.

Your math is wrong

Today difficulty = 148819200
Today price = 146$USD

That's 0,2BTC/day. That's 369$USD per month, but it's not even that much 'cause diff will rise in 7 days.

You'd brake even for sure, but I think you'd probably had a lots more if you kept your BTCs rather than buying BFL gear more than a year ago. But you made it... spending time with your family in these days is priceless. Cheers.

I ordered two BFL Jalapenos back in April, I paid for them with BTC I had mined on a HD 5770 card I literally pulled out of the trash can as it was freezing on Windows, due to a power saver bug in the firmware, so I set it mining on Linux for several weeks back in 2011, then lost interest. The electricity cost was about $15 so the Jalapenos owe me about $7.50 each, that's including shipping.

It will be interesting to see if I can get my $15 back when they eventually arrive.


ATM there is not one BFL product in their range that I would buy, had BFL been any good at production/shipping I would have ordered a lot more, but that opportunity went back in July when it was clear BFL had dropped the ball. BFL have been overpriced for a few months, and now it is clear their terrible power consumption per GH/s  makes them useless for people like me that don't  have access to ultra cheap electricity.

I actually did look at BFL in January and got my Jala, mined and resold it and made above ROI. However, I am not ignoring the collective horror stories so I am skeptical now. As for my question, I was just trying to translate "I made my money bishes, cya" into a more constructive discussion.


0.2 BTC / day x 30 day/month = 6 BTC per month x 146 USD per BTC = 876 USD per month...

I've been reading like a madman about all these new ASIC companies from day 1,my bet is on Bitmine ATM.I have insider info too,from 2 sources that currently produce miners  ;)

KNC is going to be a little late,but thier units are overpriced,good hashrates,but cost way more than they will return,same for Bitfury/Cointerra/Hashfast/Fasthash.Forget ASICMINER,overpriced & underpowered in hashrate,until they offer 28nm or something............

All ASIC's will see a price drop by December/Jan............believe it.Wait till then & save up for it.

Oh, & buy only with CreditCard/Paypal.so you get a refund.BTC is great,but trying to get a refund from scammers is impossible,too risky ATM.Sharks are circleing in BTCland  ::)

Take whatever side you want,but BFL will be LATE AGAIN & wrong on power estimates............AGAIN !!!!!!!!!!!

Erk,it pains me to say this,but good post  :D

+1.  This is what I meant.  Thanks for the down-to-earth calculation.  Don't let TheGenesisBlock's calculator (which is awesome, btw) trick you into thinking we're going to have a larger (hashrate-wise) network than we will.  Remember - nearly everyone advising you against mining .. is a miner ;).  I would still take delivery on a $1299 60GH miner.

amer provided some useful info and perspective as it relates to a longer term view. However, AFAICT, short term--if the hash growth rate stays the same (very roughly 100%/month) for the next 2-3 months, then this miner will not even approach breaking even in terms of USD. Am I wrong in my calculation? Or is there some reason you expect a significant drop in the hash rate growth rate very soon?

I think in the future the best case scenario for hashrate will be leveling towards flat, I can't imagine a scenario short of a algo change or a major blow to Bitcoin where the hashrate will actually drop in the foreseeable future.  Could be wrong though, also interested in ralree's explanation for his optimistic outlook.

I don't expect the hash rate to ever drop, so long as Bitcoin continues to grow. I was talking about the hash rate growth rate dropping, and whether there's some reason to think that may happen soon.

Yes,a 60GH'er BEFORE price increase,take it.But it won't last long,3-4 Petahash is coming early next year.............................

I suppose the only way for that to happen would be if all or most of the 28nm products are delayed considerably or ship at an extremely slow pace.  Unfortunately there is no way for any of us to know how successful each respective company will be in their ASIC endeavor but my money is that we will accelerate growth or at a minimum stay our current course for at least 3-6 months.

A few members have made some good threads estimating the total hashrate planned to be deployed by 2014 (and a bit beyond) based on announcement from various companies.  I'm too lazy to find links but I don't think you'd have to dig too far into Custom Hardware and Mining Speculation to find them.

If you plan to receive the 60GH in a month or so the big question is will KNC complete their deliveries to their first Sept/Oct batch of customers and will Hashfast ship product in a few weeks like they claim.  If both these fail then you might look at a nice return, if KNC gets their act together and Hashfast delivers as promised it might be very rough for you keeping the unit.

If you can take delivery before the next difficulty adjustment, you have a good chance of ROI. Delivery in a month? No chance of profit.

Could you remind me where I can find out the projected time of the next difficulty adjustment?

Also, can you provide some numbers or point me to a source to support your claim?

Thanks for your input.

Looks like KNCminer got their machine running on schedule and it's faster than they promised

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFOcI8nK2xI


Kind of makes BFL look like a sick joke.

With current growth rates, it's about every 11 days. Next adjustment in about 5 days to 180M.


Here's an optimistic estimate: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/49a674a026

If it doesn't break even in the next 3-6 months, it never will.

Now that is engineering. I would like to give a "Great job done" to the KNCMiner guys.  ;D

amen, all these 'better to just buy BTC' crackpots all assume they time the market brilliantly

it's fun though messing with their one track mind 

what if someone puts their miner costs as their cost basis when calculating their BTC trades in their taxes..  perhaps that person is actually seeking somewhere to write down some losses?   ::)

It's not BFL ROI. It should be LOI = Loss On Investment