Bitcoin Forum

So I came across https://www.cex.io/ today, but It's been running for over a month.

What do you think?

You purchase 1 GH/s mining speed for about 0.23 - 0.25 BTC - and you can trade. it.

What do you think?

It appears to be an IPO but with its own website. I am gonna try it out for a month or 2 and see whats up.

It appears, at current price, you can break even in less than 2 months.. o.O

Works well for me!

I don't understand why people are selling hashpower instead of using it for them, and making all profits...

because its like those perpetual mining bonds.
Every difficulty increase puts out a new yield of ur ghash so the worth of 1ghash declines. If you sell at the right time just to buy back in later you can improve your position in the game.

Because they can make more when people trade the ghs

I strongly think that it is illegal because it also fall into the trading category. Just that, they have to take care all the gambling site and security before this so it is quite safe :)

I think they have taken the proper steps to make sure everything is working fine. There's a signup link under my avatar ;)

Its 100% legit, Ive done transactions both ways and my miners are keeping a steady income

Should be interesting to see if they can keep up with difficulty increases.

I think it's like throwing your coins in the trash can.

You can make roi with it and sell gigs when you need btc

Good deal but you have to set stop loss :)

Pretty sure I will make roi, but then I will sell shares at a lower price than I bought them for...still a little profit

You mean decreasing cost per 1 GH/s as difficulty rises ?
They do poor job here  :)

Can hardly ROI with cex.io (https://cex.io/r/1/hulk/0/) now, the Bitcoin difficulty willl the biggest rise every in history in few hours time.

The price per GH, has fallen over .1 btc so far, soon it will be like .07-.09 a ghash... Not horrible.

Current price 0.13 GH/S on cex.io (https://cex.io/r/1/hulk/0/). Hm.... wonder if its good entry price...

yeah its damn low - I've been pumping spare BTC into it this afternoon.

This is my referral link for those who want to help me:
Cex.io (https://cex.io/r/1/Zeek/0/)

Without a increase in difficulty it would take around 2 to 3 months to hit ROI. But difficulty will increase and the price will drop, so I guess this is not profitable.

You can't factor in second hand value of Gh/s though? It's something that still puzzles me

Oh yeah. I totally forgot about that. But still, that price will just go down in the coming two months, I don't think it changes a lot.

I am valuing it at 50% what I paid. Nothing to quantify it, just speculation.

Now, if CEX.io is legit, then I think you are calculating it wrong.  You are able to sell these GH/s back to the market, for the same, or lowered price.  Or maybe even higher price.

have you ever heard of the greater fool theory?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
 ;D

Not unrealistic, considering the best profit of ASIC miner is sell it immediately after you receive your preorder

Legit, but doesn't seems to be a good deal for the buyer...

Obviously, if it was good deal, the CEX.io would not sell the hashing power

Unless difficuty starts falling soon, but it wont happen ;)

Its really not a bad deal.
Look at it this way. Currently you purchase Ghash ~.135-.140 which in turn generates ~.00005000-~.00005500 at the current difficulty per block currently averaging 3 blocks per hour so roughly .00015000 per hour.
Now with that your looking at .0036 BTC a day. which in turn at this difficulty turns to .108 BTC a month.
Now take your .108btc and sell your Ghash after 30 days, if you get more than .03-.04 for it... Which you will. You have made not only ROI but a small profit.

So if you by 10Ghash or hell make it 13 for safe measure, you should make ~1BTC at a current cost of 1.35-1.6 BTC. In which after you make your 1BTC, you sell back the Ghash at ~ 1BTC

So see its all about money now. vs money later

im lovin cex.io :) so far so good IMO :) keep up the good work cex peeps

LOL. Are you sure you understand the difficulty will continue to increase for few months for sure? It shows no signs of slowing don, still at a rate about +30% every 10 days

Aaaaand, I just received spam from them. So my trust in them (the little I had) is now completely gone. If you need to send spam as a company, you are either a huge scam or even a bigger scam.

Terms and Conditions may apply, it's not spam if you gave your email address and agreed with the terms. :)

There are many things wrong with what you wrote. Let's fix it.

First, the mining:

Currently, 1 GH/s mines about 0.000013 BTC per block, or about .0263 BTC per 2016 blocks. The difficulty changes every 2016 blocks and it takes about 11 days to mine those 2016 blocks. For many months now, the difficulty has risen about 30% each time. Lets assume that will continue for at least another month, and that 1 GH/s will mine 30% less every 11 days.

This table shows how much 1 GH/s will mine in about a month

Days	| Income	| Total Income
11	| 0.0263	| 0.0263
22	| 0.0202	| 0.0465
33	| 0.0156	| 0.0621

So after about a month, 1 GH/s will mine a total of about 0.0621 BTC (not 0.108).

Now, the price:

The current price is about 0.14 BTC.

After a month, 1 GH/s will mine only about 0.0000059 BTC per block. That's down about 55% from the beginning of the month. Since 1 GH/s mines 55% less than it used to, its price is going to be 55% lower, or about 0.076 BTC.

Finally, the total:

If you sell your 1 GH/s after 1 month, you will get 0.076 BTC for it (not .03-.04). Add the 0.0621 BTC you mined and you now have 0.1381 BTC.

You paid 0.14 BTC, so you lose 1.3%. Notice also that the price is dropping more than the amount of the income. Basically, the longer you hold it, the more you lose.

Now, let's assume you pay 0.10 BTC for 1 GH/s.

You still mine 0.0621 BTC, and you still sell the shares at 55% less, or 0.045 BTC, but your total is 0.1066. You paid 0.10, so you have made 6.6% in a month. Not bad.

I don't know why people pay 0.14 BTC for 1 GH/s.

I never gave them my e-mail. Never ever. I don't use anything that is related to them.
Yes, my e-mail is public, but that doesn't mean I want spam. ::)

CEX.io is just like all the other Perpetual Mining Bonds (or Mining Contracts) that have been traded on a variety of exchanges. Getting a decent estimate for a good price for them is not hard and you'll find that they are almost always overpriced.

A fun back-of-the-envelope calculation using the sum-formula of a geometric series and some high-school algebra gives you a nice closed formula for the total amount mined assuming a certain difficulty increase each time (taking into account that the period between difficulty-adjustments depends on the increase):
14 X / D
(X = amount earned per day, D = fractional difficulty increase per adjustment, so 0.3 = 30% increase).

Plug in the amount mined at the current difficulty with 1 GHash/s (0.001878) and an increase of 30% per adjustment and you'll find that this 1 GHash/s will only ever mine 0.08764 BTC in this model.

So I would not pay anything more than that if I assumed a 30% increase per adjustment (which for now is still reasonable). In fact, the price of each unit will have to be below the expected earnings, since it takes time to earn the money (and money later is worth less than money now) and you're exposed to counterparty risk.

EDIT: Regarding re-selling the shares: In a rational market, the price of the shares is proportional to the future expected profits. If the expected profits go down by 50% due to difficulty increases, the price of the shares should go down by the same amount. So if your expected profit right now does not add up to the price of the share, don't expect to compensate for that by selling the shares at some later time. Of course, there may be people willing to pay stupid premiums for these types of assets (and the fact that the price of them is still so high is a testament to that), but that's more speculation/gambling rather than investing. And the general awareness that mining is not profitable (both through own hardware and through shares) is increasing, so it'll be less likely to find a "greater fool".

Because it is hard to estimate the exact profitability. If current difficulty increase trend continues, you loose a bit. But IF difficulty increasing slows down soon, you may profit

Oh, then it's some other bitcoiner that has your email and is trying to gain referrals, yes, that's spam! :)

Can you see a referral link in the email?

In general that is mostly true, but there are details that you are overlooking.

If the difficulty trend continues, you lose a lot. The difficulty has been rising 30% for 8 months now. If it continues at that rate you lose about 40% of your investment.

My optimistic model assumes that the 30% rate slows down to only 7% in a few months, and it shows that you still lose money buying 1 GH/s at 0.14 BTC.

Basically, it is very unlikely that anyone buying 1 GH/s at 0.14 BTC is going to break even, and it would take a miracle to see a profit.

Anyone got an update regarding this company. I see some people promote it but on the site there is no mention of referral commissions. What's the deal?

Since it is a couple of months since the last post what do people think now, is it a scam or good or ok but will be no good in future?

It is legit, but it is not profitable.
You can use its built-in profit calculator. https://cex.io/calc

Does that only then apply to this site or all of these types of sites?

I do think that the website is excellent, but due to the huge difficulty jump I think the price per GH/s is still too high!

It's profitable! Not for just mining though...lol

It's a commodity exchange, you buy low and sell high.

Not everyone is going to make money...

What I did was made money trading enough where the gh/s was at a fair price...

Then I just continued mining after that... I found the buying / selling a little stressful..  :-[

It looks too perfect to be real. :(

works fine for me, you buy low, let it mine, and sell at the same rate you bought or higher rate. easy profits, bit of risk but the price per share does not fluctuate too much. you dont have to wait over a month for your miner, its instant and u can sell it instantly too. plus theres a not so bad referal program too. see my signature below.. ;)

I'm using it and it mines some alt currencies as well (NMC,DVC,IXC) there is definitely a referral program where you get 3% added to your hashing power of what the referred person is buying.
Below my referral link if you do decide to use it.
https://cex.io/r/0/Hpwolf/0/

The nice thing at the end is you can trade your GHS just like any coin and the value does go up and down (it has been between 0.65 and 0.75 this last month with it been on 0.07135215 when typing this)
So not only do you get the small amount from mining but there is a chance to be traiding the miner as well.

The website is nicely setup and i have withdrawn some of the coin that i have mined.
The site is definitely not a scam.

Absolutely, without a doubt, until the vertical becomes more competitive and someone steps up to the plate, they are my top pic for now.

It is good! But the price per Gh/s is high so you must trade it to make a profit, you will make a loss if you just mine. Watch out for the difficulty adjustments and how they affect the market. Anyway, definitely not a scam, you will make an additional profit of about 5 % with the merge mined altcoins (if you trade them right away) and then there are referrals which you might get. Nice to have that service anyway.

Basically, the last person holding these shares is the loser. This game is about betting that you won't be the fool that gets stuck with the shares.

Sounds like that orb / bomb game which was quite popular a while ago. :P

Maybe the last person buys cheap and mines with them for profit? Everyone that makes a loss is a loser  :D

The difficulty will be up by 30% tomorrow, but the price for hashrate is still more or less the same as 10 days before.
What is in the mind of those guys?