Bitcoin Forum

How to calculate the possible number of earned staks in a bounty?

This question tormented me for a very long time. It is difficult to answer it. But you can. To some extent, approximately. Without the theory of games there is nothing. And of course we need examples. So let's try.
But, there is no definite answer. There is only supposed profit. As in poker)))
So.
There are bounties with a total amount of coins equivalent to $ 700,000
In the bounty there is a subscription company for which 35% of the total number of awards have been allocated.
So we have $ 245,000 that will be distributed by all participants to the subscription company.
OK, let's go further.
Everyday rewards in the subscription (this information for the youngest) are measured in stacks. Stacks accrue every week. The size of the stack depends on the number of participants in the company. The number of stacks per week depends on the rank. Let's assume in our company such distribution of stacks:

Jr. Member: 1 stake / week
Member: 2 stakes / week
Full Member: 3 stakes / week
Sr Member: 5 stakes / week
Hero / Legendary: 7 stakes / century

Presumably, the company will last 10 weeks
Suppose we started participating in the company from the very beginning and our rank is Member
In this case, we will get 20 stacks at the end of the company if we do everything by the rules.
And now the most intresnoe begins.

In the first week in the subscription company, there were not many people joining in. But still you can draw some conclusions. Everyone thinks for himself.
But let's assume that in the first two weeks 50 companies joined the company. Since the company's average rank is Full Member,
then we will count from him.
Earned these 50 Full Member 150 stacks /
We multiply them by 5 = 750
take in the next 2 weeks, and suppose that they will be joined by about 50 people, in which case we can add 150 * 4 = 600 to this 750secs
In total, we hypothetically cover a total of 1350 chips at week 4.
We do the same with the others.
6 week +50 participants and earned chips + 450 total 1350 + 450 = 1800
8 week +50 participants, earned +300. Total 2100.
10 week +50 participants earned 150 total 2250.
So, the calculations are made and we got the HtPothetic value of the total number of stacks of 2250 with an average weekly gain of 3.
From here, you can manipulate the average earnings and the number of participants to draw all sorts of conclusions.
For example, you can see that the average earnings are not equal to 3 with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 7, and is equal to 3.5. In this case, you need to divide by 2250 into 3 and multiply the result by 3.5. The result is even closer to the truth. 2625. Once again I repeat that the results are very approximate. Nobody knows, how will the percentage of the participant be blacklisted?)))

Okay, let's all count how much this is in $$$
everything is simple: (245000/2625) * 20 = !!!!!!! do not faint)))
Now the most important thing is to read the hat again. There you can see that 700,000
will be paid when collecting hardcup. And then vsam may be disappointed.
Do not despair. This is just another variable for your manipulations. You can calculate how much you can snatch when collecting software. We know that Harkap is 21000000 and the software is 1,000,000. Ok, divide 21,000,000 by 700,000, get 30 and now divide 1000000/30 = get more real threes))) 33 333.3. It's not so rosy.

But there is a catch.
The cap indicates that 700,000 when collecting hardcap. But not a word is said about what will happen if this hardcard is not collected. Therefore, it is better to ask the manager in advance about this issue.
In short
All these dances with a tambourine will help you determine the amount of HYPOTHETIC profit.
Nobody canceled the scum and a simple underpayment to the hunters.
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Thank you all for Attention. Who was interesno and useful please evaluate the works of the maestro sharing merit.

Great Explanation! Going further your even can even download excel spreadshit and add some formulas in excel.

P.S. Please fix sentence "In the cap is not skazano that 700000 when collecting hardap." 8)

Thank you. Fixed
 ;)
Sorry, but not strong in the excel. Simply playing poker experience suggests that it is better to imagine all the pros and cons.

I like poker too :)
So u made good start!

May be u have some statistic?
% of bounty that hit hardcap
% of bounty that go scum
Those numbers may be improve formulas.

PS
intresnoe, sardnym - not wery english words too.

"And now the most intresnoe begins."
"From here, you can manipulate sardnym earnings.."

Thank you, corrected) I do not have such statistics. But with your rank, you can participate for example in this company https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3037593.msg31282035#msg31282035. Avirunes manager of this company, honest responsive. Very little chance that he will lead a scam project.
Here is an example of his country https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2078526.0 and here is a token that from the price of ICO to the current moment made X4. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/utrust/
look at the project tables, see the subscription companies and see how many people earned your rank)

A good note for choosing projects. Do not forget that in some campaigns the number of participants is limited and some of these participants are eliminated during the campaign. The case is purely individual and such calculations are more accurate towards the end of the campaign. I prefer not to think about such topics, because then you can get frustrated. It is better to take several campaigns and then there will be a good result.

It is possible to take several companies if you have several accounts on the BCT. Now it is very difficult to keep several accounts. And with the level of the Jr member and Member of the payment for the company are small

and some ico after the bounty the will slash the token lol

Well, yes, no one is insured from this. I like the rules of Sylon (http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=112240)

Because people who participated in the Bounty Program that received the tokens and early investors who got discounted are selling(not all of course but majority of them) it right after they have it and when it's trad-able in exchange/s. People want valuable coins to sell as soon as possible from every ICOs before everybody else does(even myself too) and that's the main reason(for me). If an ICO has a good mission and vision then there is nothing to worry about the price of their token.

If you trust the Coins/Tokens then hold otherwise sell it, It's a matter of choice and we all want money(That's why we all doing Bounty).

It's not really about that. The guy is going to talk about possible payments for the subscription company. From myself, I can tell that by doing such manipulations with Twitter or FB tables you can calculate the possible income from social network companies. But this is if the company has a fixed weekly stack

I agree with you Bro, the price on going to the exchange is not so important. But it's equally interesting to imagine the number of your potential stacks relative to the potential total number of stacks. That is, if you are faced with the task of writing 30 posts per week for 3-4 months for ~ $ 500, it may be better to look for a company where you pay ~ $ 5000

Thanks for the write up, was helpful. I'm not a huge bounty guy but since I've hit Jr Member I'm looking to see if there're any worthy ones to go on

This is the mosi improtantant thing and noone never ask about it.
Some bounties can have a Fixed amount from softcap to hardcap which is good if the ico hit the softcap but not so good if will hit the hardcap.

With a jr member you will not earn much. Moreover, now companies are increasingly giving away 35 - 25%. But there is where it seeks. Before the member needs only 10 measures. It's not that much. But the next rank promises much more privileges. But before him there is an abyss. But not even looking at all this. A subscription company with the rank of a Jr_member in which you are participating gave about 7000 tokens if all conditions were met. And, for example, a company with the condition that you have more than 5000 folovers will give something about 1500-1800 tokens. Same in the FB. For two, about 3500 tokens/ against 7000 subscriptions. For this I believe that it is necessary to approach choice decently.

Therefore, we need to choose the projects for the subscription that will be collected by Hard Cap))) Let's see if the project that I have on the signature will collect) Soft Cap has already entered

Lucky you, even to Younger I still have to grow and grow. But for the future uchtu. Thanks for the info.

Everything will be fine. Not even looking at the difficulties in the form of measures. The most important thing is not to lose hope

Guys, do not ignore this topic. I am very interested in knowing an alternative opinion on this issue.

This calculation is useless.

Suppose you got 100 tokens. The price for ICO was 1 dollar and you are counting on it.

And when you want to sell your 100 coins, the price will be $ 0.01 and that's it.

It is better to rejoice at what you receive, and not to rely on some calculations that never correspond to reality.

Bro, I do not speak about pampas or dump tokens after ICO. I'm talking about calculating the number of coins in each company that suits you in one way or another.

Very sad guys. No one has no one and nothing to say))) Maybe I even pricked the fact that the project that I long worn on the signature oschaslivil me so that otprvil 500 tokeno nv amount of ~ $ 50

But there is a catch.
The cap indicates that 700,000 when collecting hardcap. But not a word is said about what will happen if this hardcard is not collected. Therefore, it is better to ask the manager in advance about this issue.
In short
All these dances with a tambourine will help you determine the amount of HYPOTHETIC profit.
Nobody canceled the scum and a simple underpayment to the hunters.
_________________________________________________________________

Thank you all for Attention. Who was interesno and useful please evaluate the works of the maestro sharing merit.
[/quote]


Some managers still indicate% of the total fee for payments, if hardcap has not been achieved. In principle, even if they do not, the payments are made proportionally as far as I could see.

To be honest bounty calculation can never be accurate as many more factors are involved, i will urge all the promoters and bounty hunters to only select and promote serious projects with good bounty allocation preferably over 1 million.

So I was in the first post and wrote that "the calculation of possible profits." It's like in poker "" the chances of the bank. "You're figuring that if you do it well, then you'll take the bank. And if it's not good, then you will not take it.