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Title: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 02, 2013, 09:39:38 AM Note: All updates posted at the end of the thread.
In light of the Silk Road take down I've been thinking along the lines of a large new rising channel, pictured below. This is slightly less steep than the channel i've been following on my blog. The silk road dip has confirmed the bottom line of this new channel I'm watching. The fact that Fed is now seizing and accumulating bitcoins is bullish development in my view. Red line shows slope of resistance, I expect we'll meander sideways staying within the channel and under that resistance for a while. Might not get resolved until late November, then I expect we'll break up, staying within the channel. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JweregxH/ Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: 600watt on October 02, 2013, 10:51:36 AM found this in memespeculation thread...
http://24.media.tumblr.com/85c58ce200545d5f2c857521dba55e13/tumblr_mte01f3sD41s7f3fyo1_1280.jpg Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 02, 2013, 11:53:51 AM Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: annette786 on October 02, 2013, 07:41:08 PM Well, I may be down xxxx today, but it just may be worth it to see this. Nice shark. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: notme on October 02, 2013, 09:24:26 PM Heres what I'm thinking, breakout coming, either by busting through resistance, or dropping to lower parallel then busting through ! http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/resistance-is-futile/ I also have a bearish scenario in back of my mind, but hoping won't need that. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nZ4Mk1Qp/ You should have let that nagging bear out of hibernation. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 07, 2013, 09:52:44 AM Edit: This post is now also copied to the first post on the thread.
In light of the Silk Road take down I've been thinking along the lines of a large new rising channel, pictured below. This is slightly less steep than the channel i first posted at top of thread. The silk road dip has confirmed the bottom line of this new channel I'm watching. The fact that Fed is now seizing and accumulating bitcoins is bullish development in my view. Red line shows slope of resistance, I expect we'll meander sideways staying within the channel and under that resistance for a while. Might not get resolved until late November, then I expect we'll break up, staying within the channel. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JweregxH/ Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: derpinheimer on October 07, 2013, 02:58:48 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?
Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 07, 2013, 03:23:48 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: derpinheimer on October 07, 2013, 03:43:23 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: adamstgBit on October 07, 2013, 03:46:34 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 07, 2013, 03:53:28 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. Not sure I follow, why is it not TA ? The analysis I perform is based on trendlines. The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope. If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum. I thought there'd be more bears here though. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: derpinheimer on October 07, 2013, 04:00:18 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday. At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common. lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ? The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope. If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum. I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ? A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure. Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 07, 2013, 04:02:34 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday. At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common. lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ? The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope. If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum. I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ? A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure. Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence. Must be great being the omnipotent one Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: adamstgBit on October 07, 2013, 04:05:28 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday. At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common. lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ? The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope. If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum. I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ? A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure. Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence. prediction: there will be over 10K coins sold in the next 24 hours, and price will move up. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: smoothie on October 07, 2013, 04:35:51 PM lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday. At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common. lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke? It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ? The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope. If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum. I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ? A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure. Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence. prediction: there will be over 10K coins sold in the next 24 hours, and price will move up. In the form of a gigantic spring and yawn concerning SR shutdown. :D +1 Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 07, 2013, 05:02:24 PM I thought you were a logscale analyst. Why the linear scale?
Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 07, 2013, 08:01:06 PM Yes I think log scales are best to get true perspective of bitcoins because they are increasing rapidly on a short timescale, and shows the bubbles in context of the bigger picture. TradingView doesn't have the option of a log scale (but has excellent features for technical analysis), I guess using TradingView has started me looking at linear scales more than before. I'd say linear is a good approximation on shorter timescales. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: notme on October 07, 2013, 08:20:06 PM Yes I think log scales are best to get true perspective of bitcoins because they are increasing rapidly on a short timescale, and shows the bubbles in context of the bigger picture. TradingView doesn't have the option of a log scale (but has excellent features for technical analysis), I guess using TradingView has started me looking at linear scales more than before. I'd say linear is a good approximation on shorter timescales. TradingView does have log scale, it's just hidden. Go to the gear, then "scales". Linear is a good approximation for small time scales. It is also good for stable (sideways) behavior. This usually only happens on small timescales with bitcoin, but there have been some periods of long term stability, particularly with the shorting that happened over $5. Eventually, the position got away from them. (cough p@40 cough) Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: Spekulatius on October 07, 2013, 09:05:33 PM Yes I think log scales are best to get true perspective of bitcoins because they are increasing rapidly on a short timescale, and shows the bubbles in context of the bigger picture. TradingView doesn't have the option of a log scale (but has excellent features for technical analysis), I guess using TradingView has started me looking at linear scales more than before. I'd say linear is a good approximation on shorter timescales. TradingView does have log scale, it's just hidden. Go to the gear, then "scales". Linear is a good approximation for small time scales. It is also good for stable (sideways) behavior. This usually only happens on small timescales with bitcoin, but there have been some periods of long term stability, particularly with the shorting that happened over $5. Eventually, the position got away from them. (cough p@40 cough) Its even easier to right-click on the scale to the right and select "Log Scale", done! I guess most people are basing their trading decissions on linear scale charts. As unrealistic as linear charts are, they are the most commonly used, so their predictions tend to come true until traders favor log scales over linear scales :( Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 08, 2013, 07:50:51 AM Thanks for the tip! You're right there is a log view, whadyaknow
Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: TERA on October 08, 2013, 08:04:17 AM This 110 just happens to be where it fell to on GOX. Gox is less relevant these days as it has less volume and has no fiat entering or leaving. Bitstamp is where real sellers would have sold their coin as you can actually cash out there. Now what do you make of the drops on bitstamp and btce?
Bitstamp fell to 85 and btce fell to 75! You can't draw any similar lines involving THESE prices. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 08, 2013, 11:35:49 AM This 110 just happens to be where it fell to on GOX. Gox is less relevant these days as it has less volume and has no fiat entering or leaving. Bitstamp is where real sellers would have sold their coin as you can actually cash out there. Now what do you make of the drops on bitstamp and btce? Bitstamp fell to 85 and btce fell to 75! You can't draw any similar lines involving THESE prices. Those charts are for MtGox, so the bitstamp price is not relevant to that chart, later if i find time i might see how valid similar trend lines look on bitstamp charts. Or UK pounds charts or whatever. Mt Gox is still a decent proxy for the market but, yes is losing its dominance which is good. Here is some more information about what i think regarding price diff on MtGox http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/mtgox-price/ Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 08, 2013, 11:44:48 AM This 110 just happens to be where it fell to on GOX. Gox is less relevant these days as it has less volume and has no fiat entering or leaving. Bitstamp is where real sellers would have sold their coin as you can actually cash out there. Now what do you make of the drops on bitstamp and btce? Bitstamp fell to 85 and btce fell to 75! You can't draw any similar lines involving THESE prices. Further to that, I know I highlighted the Silk Road Siezure panic as validating the bottom trendline but I don't think too much importance should be heaped on that one touch point. I just thought it was quite 'cute' thats all. The more important thing is the channel which especially on the other trend lines looks very well defined in my opinion. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: bitcoinBull on October 08, 2013, 03:56:32 PM Nice channel. But using mtgox price worries me.
Here's the bitstamp chart. Watch for the OBV to break above 450, and for the MACD to turn positive. That would confirm the bullish scenario IMO. (Accumulation/Distribution is not charted below, but it is going sky-high due to fund flows from mtgox to bitstamp. Acc/Dist on mtgox chart has flatlined). https://i.imgur.com/O8qAwpk.png Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 09, 2013, 11:08:29 AM Its a shame TradingView doesn't have the symbol for bitstamp. (Unless its just me not spotting it). Anyway heres an attempt at showing similar channel on bitstamp
http://s10.postimg.org/i290de6jt/chart.png The bottom trend line doesnt look so good a match as MtGox on this interpretation, but I'd still say the overall upwards trend looks quite well established I may spend some more time doing overlays between the Mtgox and Bitstamp price if I find time. Features look fairly similar. Not sure offhand when price began to diverge ie when MtGox stopped being able to allow US$ withdrawls causing price descrepency. (In normal situation arbitrage would balance out the differences.) Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 14, 2013, 07:44:11 AM *** Latest Update ***
The MtGox price has climbed above resistance https://www.tradingview.com/x/wlIjCnKo/ Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 16, 2013, 03:15:35 PM *** Resistance at $170 ***
Based on the channels I've been following in this thread I'd say the next resistance should be at $170 as we approach the top of those channels. Heres a chart showing the longer term, less steep channel. https://www.tradingview.com/x/LOinLuuA/ more http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/10/16/resistance-at-170/ Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 21, 2013, 01:18:38 PM Lots of talk of a bubble in the forums today, in my view this isn't anywhere near a bubble yet. Although the recent price rises are very impressive. I think the spike up is caused by a sort of slingshot effect after the bust of silk road. There was a lot of bullish momentum prior to silk road, the panic selling of silk road cleared the way for the stronger hands to swoop in.
I'm thinking there will be a correction soon, possibly back into the channel I've been looking at here. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 21, 2013, 02:10:23 PM Lots of talk of a bubble in the forums today, in my view this isn't anywhere near a bubble yet. Although the recent price rises are very impressive. I think the spike up is caused by a sort of slingshot effect after the bust of silk road. There was a lot of bullish momentum prior to silk road, the panic selling of silk road cleared the way for the stronger hands to swoop in. Of course you are correct. Everyone here is bubble this and bubble that... this means there will be lots of bids chasing the asks for long time to come. All those countless "short term bears" must surrender before the short term bullish trend (weekly chart) reverses. It is never a bubble, not even close, when everyone thinks that something is a bubble. If you want bubble go look at the non-logarithmic chart of the difficulty or chart of mobile phone and social account adoption over last few years. BTW what will break bear's spines is 100$+ a day price increases. Once we see that, then perhaps it may make sense to stop buying for a while. Yes amazing to think of it, but if bitcoins go to triple digits then 100$ a day moves might be quite normal by then. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: nobbynobbynoob on October 21, 2013, 02:13:15 PM Yes amazing to think of it, but if bitcoins go to triple digits then 100$ a day moves might be quite normal by then. <technical correction>quadruple/quintuple*</technical correction> ;D Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 21, 2013, 02:17:25 PM ahem! Quite correct. thanks. $100 a day moves in triple digits would be something! :-[ Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 21, 2013, 04:31:07 PM Almost more exciting than the prices are where Bitcoin will be when it hits quadruple or quintuple digits. What will the ecosystem look like?
Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: nobbynobbynoob on October 21, 2013, 06:40:19 PM Almost more exciting than the prices are where Bitcoin will be when it hits quadruple or quintuple digits. What will the ecosystem look like? Obviously, I haven't a clue, but my guess would be that bitcoin payment methods would be approaching ubiquity online at least. Brick'n'mortar businesses might still be way behind the adoption curve even then, with fiat prevailing in meatspace for the time being. Some theorize that BTC may be priced around $2000 with full-on mainstream adoption. While this is possible - bear in mind Bitcoin might not be the only game in town (it isn't now if you count Ripple, altcoins, centralized digital currencies and fiat-based payment systems) - the flaw I see in that analysis is that such a "low" mainstream price would probably be based upon Bitcoin being used primarily as a means to transfer rather than store value. But with such mainstream usage, its store-of-value properties would surely shine, thereby providing a continued incentive to "hoard", pushing the price up further and further. Of course, my thoughts are just that, and are little more than largely uncorroborated opinions. I'm no "pro" economist, and given some of the fraudsters who claim to be, am not ashamed of it. Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: smoothie on October 22, 2013, 04:55:34 AM Lots of talk of a bubble in the forums today, in my view this isn't anywhere near a bubble yet. Although the recent price rises are very impressive. I think the spike up is caused by a sort of slingshot effect after the bust of silk road. There was a lot of bullish momentum prior to silk road, the panic selling of silk road cleared the way for the stronger hands to swoop in. Of course you are correct. Everyone here is bubble this and bubble that... this means there will be lots of bids chasing the asks for long time to come. All those countless "short term bears" must surrender before the short term bullish trend (weekly chart) reverses. It is never a bubble, not even close, when everyone thinks that something is a bubble. If you want bubble go look at the non-logarithmic chart of the difficulty or chart of mobile phone and social account adoption over last few years. BTW what will break bear's spines is 100$+ a day price increases. Once we see that, then perhaps it may make sense to stop buying for a while. I still think this is too conservative if seen as $100 a day price increases. I can see a $250 price increase in a single day. And having them back to back or a series of them. We have got a long way to go -----------> $1000+ Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: nwfella on October 22, 2013, 05:37:08 AM Definitely doesn't look like a bubble imho.
Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 22, 2013, 10:42:39 AM This has actually turned out to be more accurate than my chart! :D :D :D Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on October 30, 2013, 03:33:54 PM Heres an update to my bullish scenario -Think i was right to be bullish 8)
Theres a closing wedge forming at the moment by look of it. Resistance at a line drawn from the all time high to last weeks high.. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2Uyq40cw/ Title: Re: Bullish scenario Post by: afbitcoins on November 28, 2013, 02:45:33 PM I called for a bullish rally around the time of silk road siezure, just before actually. Looks like a good call I'd say, price has risen about $1000 since then
8) How high is this rally going to go ? $2200 ? Been a little while since I posted on this thread, however heres the fork I'm now following on my blog. https://www.tradingview.com/x/AVXpaZgg/ |
