Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: jl2012 on October 02, 2013, 06:28:58 PM



Title: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: jl2012 on October 02, 2013, 06:28:58 PM
So the bitcoin price is crashing due to SR shutdown. This really reminds me the crash in August 2012 after the close of Pirate scheme. At that time, people believed the Pirate scheme was the only thing supported the demand of bitcoin.  Price reduced from $15 to $7 in just a few hours. The history is just repeating.

Now we all know what happened since.  ;)

Probably, we were really lucky that SR were shutdown in Oct 2013, not Oct 2012. Should this happened in 2012, there was a real probability to go below $1 and won't recover for a very long time (but I still believe it would recover eventually). Today, bitcoin has become big enough to resist the death of SR. At this moment, bitcoin has just started attracting attention of high profile investors like SecondMarket. These people don't like their names linked to drugs. Therefore, I see the death of SR as medium-to-long-term bullish ---- very bullish. For those $100,000 bitcoin believers: do you really believe SR will bring bitcoin to $100,000?


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Le Happy Merchant on October 02, 2013, 06:34:33 PM
Silkroad has been like a leg brace for Bitcoin for a long time, but Bitcoin can walk on it's own now.

I agree that this is bullish in the long term.

Run, Bitcoin! Run!


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: crazy_rabbit on October 02, 2013, 06:45:07 PM
So the bitcoin price is crashing due to SR shutdown. This really reminds me the crash in August 2012 after the close of Pirate scheme. At that time, people believed the Pirate scheme was the only thing supported the demand of bitcoin.  Price reduced from $15 to $7 in just a few hours. The history is just repeating.

Now we all know what happened since.  ;)

Probably, we were really lucky that SR were shutdown in Oct 2013, not Oct 2012. Should this happened in 2012, there was a real probability to go below $1 and won't recover for a very long time (but I still believe it would recover eventually). Today, bitcoin has become big enough to resist the death of SR. At this moment, bitcoin has just started attracting attention of high profile investors like SecondMarket. These people don't like their names linked to drugs. Therefore, I see the death of SR as medium-to-long-term bullish ---- very bullish. For those $100,000 bitcoin believers: do you really believe SR will bring bitcoin to $100,000?

Agreed. Now was the time to get rid of silkroad. We need to focus on the future in the daylight not our back alley past.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Buffer Overflow on October 02, 2013, 06:52:03 PM
Bitcoin > Silkroad


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: smoothie on October 08, 2013, 03:08:21 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: derpinheimer on October 08, 2013, 03:14:27 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.

That was in no way disproven.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: adamstgBit on October 08, 2013, 03:20:12 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.

That was in no way disproven.

google listen to bitcoin click here http://www.bitlisten.com/

listen, and realize SR is gone.

think, think really hard.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: nobbynobbynoob on October 08, 2013, 03:27:08 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.

That was in no way disproven.

google listen to bitcoin click here http://www.bitlisten.com/

listen, and realize SR is gone.

think, think really hard.

I love that site!

Seems pretty similar to when I listened a few weeks ago... except maybe it's a little more peaceful? Higher pitched? Or maybe just my imagination?


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: adamstgBit on October 08, 2013, 03:30:13 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.

That was in no way disproven.

google listen to bitcoin click here http://www.bitlisten.com/

listen, and realize SR is gone.

think, think really hard.

I love that site!

Seems pretty similar to when I listened a few weeks ago... except maybe it's a little more peaceful? Higher pitched? Or maybe just my imagination?

its hard to say... but other sources do point to more or less the same amount of tx volume happening on the network



side note: I never bought weed on SR, but i have bought weed for bitcoins.  :P


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: derpinheimer on October 08, 2013, 06:14:18 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.

That was in no way disproven.

google listen to bitcoin click here http://www.bitlisten.com/

listen, and realize SR is gone.

think, think really hard.

Oh, well if you mean transactions, no.

But if you mean it didnt support the market, that isnt yet proven. Would take at least a month to see.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Buffer Overflow on October 08, 2013, 06:42:45 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.

That was in no way disproven.

google listen to bitcoin click here http://www.bitlisten.com/

listen, and realize SR is gone.

think, think really hard.

Oh, well if you mean transactions, no.

But if you mean it didnt support the market, that isnt yet proven. Would take at least a month to see.

We'll wait and see. Personally I would feel embarrassed to admit involvement in Bitcoin, if it were found it's main backbone was a drug market.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: derpinheimer on October 08, 2013, 06:50:31 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.

That was in no way disproven.

google listen to bitcoin click here http://www.bitlisten.com/

listen, and realize SR is gone.

think, think really hard.

Oh, well if you mean transactions, no.

But if you mean it didnt support the market, that isnt yet proven. Would take at least a month to see.

We'll wait and see. Personally I would feel embarrassed to admit involvement in Bitcoin, if it were found it's main backbone was a drug market.

I dont see why it matters. If bitcoin ends up having other uses in the future, then what it was used for in the past is irrelevant IMO.



Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Buffer Overflow on October 08, 2013, 06:54:24 AM
Pirate crash was more epic in %. SR myth of it being most of the bitcoin economy is just rubbish and now debunked. Good riddance.

That was in no way disproven.

google listen to bitcoin click here http://www.bitlisten.com/

listen, and realize SR is gone.

think, think really hard.

Oh, well if you mean transactions, no.

But if you mean it didnt support the market, that isnt yet proven. Would take at least a month to see.

We'll wait and see. Personally I would feel embarrassed to admit involvement in Bitcoin, if it were found it's main backbone was a drug market.

I dont see why it matters. If bitcoin ends up having other uses in the future, then what it was used for in the past is irrelevant IMO.



Well my Bitcoin holding value has increased thousands of percent. I would feel pretty bad that increase was an indirect result of the drug trade.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: surebet on October 08, 2013, 06:58:38 AM
You guys realize a bunch of other "services" existed before SR's fall and are now gearing up to handle the traffic, right?


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Zammo on October 08, 2013, 07:06:54 AM


Salt Road has already been replaced.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: atlosas on October 08, 2013, 02:38:48 PM
I wonder how many bitcoins are trapped inside silkroad accounts


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Spekulatius on October 08, 2013, 11:37:44 PM
Anyone in this thread care for some TA??


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: mp420 on October 09, 2013, 04:51:03 AM
I wonder how many bitcoins are trapped inside silkroad accounts

According to the news, about 26,000.

Feds seized their hot wallet. Actually it's less than I would have guessed, but then there might be other funds that didn't get seized but are in some kind of a limbo right now, and possibly forever lost.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: rampantparanoia on October 09, 2013, 06:10:13 PM
Anyone in this thread care for some TA??

+1. some charts showing the market changes in each scenario would be welcomed


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: pand70 on October 09, 2013, 06:20:40 PM
I clicked expecting to see some graphs of the two crashes  :'(


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Manna on October 09, 2013, 09:14:28 PM
I wonder how many bitcoins are trapped inside silkroad accounts

According to the news, about 26,000.

Feds seized their hot wallet. Actually it's less than I would have guessed, but then there might be other funds that didn't get seized but are in some kind of a limbo right now, and possibly forever lost.

The problem is not the SR hotwallet, but his cold wallet, it contains 600.000 privatly owned BTCs. Sometime there comes the time where these btcs will be sold at the market, hope that this is not the case in the next months.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Odalv on October 09, 2013, 09:22:36 PM
I wonder how many bitcoins are trapped inside silkroad accounts

According to the news, about 26,000.

Feds seized their hot wallet. Actually it's less than I would have guessed, but then there might be other funds that didn't get seized but are in some kind of a limbo right now, and possibly forever lost.

The problem is not the SR hotwallet, but his cold wallet, it contains 600.000 privatly owned BTCs. Sometime there comes the time where these btcs will be sold at the market, hope that this is not the case in the next months.

Not so tragic.

Mtgox 30-day Volume 494,497.2540031 BTC
Bitstamp 30-day Volume372,650.87323175 BTC

Edit:

I would love to buy bitcoins at single digits or feel as FIRST adopter who bought at sub $1 :-) ... 10,000 BTC/pizza


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 09, 2013, 09:26:08 PM
I wonder how many bitcoins are trapped inside silkroad accounts

According to the news, about 26,000.

Feds seized their hot wallet. Actually it's less than I would have guessed, but then there might be other funds that didn't get seized but are in some kind of a limbo right now, and possibly forever lost.

The problem is not the SR hotwallet, but his cold wallet, it contains 600.000 privatly owned BTCs. Sometime there comes the time where these btcs will be sold at the market, hope that this is not the case in the next months.

Not so tragic.

Mtgox 30-day Volume 494,497.2540031 BTC
Bitstamp 30-day Volume372,650.87323175 BTC

How much of it are the same Bitcoins being traded back and forth?


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: Odalv on October 09, 2013, 09:32:32 PM
How much of it are the same Bitcoins being traded back and forth?

it does not matter.  I'll feel happy if I can own 100k BTC


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: adamstgBit on October 09, 2013, 09:33:37 PM
I wonder how many bitcoins are trapped inside silkroad accounts

According to the news, about 26,000.

Feds seized their hot wallet. Actually it's less than I would have guessed, but then there might be other funds that didn't get seized but are in some kind of a limbo right now, and possibly forever lost.

The problem is not the SR hotwallet, but his cold wallet, it contains 600.000 privatly owned BTCs. Sometime there comes the time where these btcs will be sold at the market, hope that this is not the case in the next months.

Not so tragic.

Mtgox 30-day Volume 494,497.2540031 BTC
Bitstamp 30-day Volume372,650.87323175 BTC

How much of it are the same Bitcoins being traded back and forth?

my guess, at least half.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: adamstgBit on October 09, 2013, 09:35:39 PM
if FBI sells bitcoin, does that mean its perfectly legal for the CIA to buy them?  ;D


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 09, 2013, 10:05:22 PM
if FBI sells bitcoin, does that mean its perfectly legal for the CIA to buy them?  ;D

They'll most likely auction them off, and probably it gets picked up by the press.
So I think them selling the coins on an exchange is unlikely.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: adamstgBit on October 09, 2013, 10:19:11 PM
if FBI sells bitcoin, does that mean its perfectly legal for the CIA to buy them?  ;D

They'll most likely auction them off, and probably it gets picked up by the press.
So I think them selling the coins on an exchange is unlikely.

i wonder how long it will take to settle the case and announce the auction ...

are they going to have a trial we can all go to and watch?


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 09, 2013, 10:25:16 PM
Lets just say it will give us something to talk about for months to come. :)


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: wachtwoord on October 09, 2013, 10:36:16 PM
if FBI sells bitcoin, does that mean its perfectly legal for the CIA to buy them?  ;D

They'll most likely auction them off, and probably it gets picked up by the press.
So I think them selling the coins on an exchange is unlikely.

Then a (significant) discount to market prices seems unlikely.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: adamstgBit on October 09, 2013, 10:40:51 PM
if FBI sells bitcoin, does that mean its perfectly legal for the CIA to buy them?  ;D

They'll most likely auction them off, and probably it gets picked up by the press.
So I think them selling the coins on an exchange is unlikely.

Then a (significant) discount to market prices seems unlikely.

unless all the bitcoiner at the auction come together and plan to bid 1$ and then split the coins evenly


if you think about it


1000BTC for pennies  is a far better deal then  26,000BTC for 3,000,000$


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: wachtwoord on October 09, 2013, 10:49:34 PM
if FBI sells bitcoin, does that mean its perfectly legal for the CIA to buy them?  ;D

They'll most likely auction them off, and probably it gets picked up by the press.
So I think them selling the coins on an exchange is unlikely.

Then a (significant) discount to market prices seems unlikely.

unless all the bitcoiner at the auction come together and plan to bid 1$ and then split the coins evenly


if you think about it


1000BTC for pennies  is a far better deal then  26,000BTC for 3,000,000$

Ever heard of the prisoners dilemma? If you all do that, I'll scoop them all for $1.01 ,)


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: adamstgBit on October 09, 2013, 10:53:07 PM
if FBI sells bitcoin, does that mean its perfectly legal for the CIA to buy them?  ;D

They'll most likely auction them off, and probably it gets picked up by the press.
So I think them selling the coins on an exchange is unlikely.

Then a (significant) discount to market prices seems unlikely.

unless all the bitcoiner at the auction come together and plan to bid 1$ and then split the coins evenly


if you think about it


1000BTC for pennies  is a far better deal then  26,000BTC for 3,000,000$

Ever heard of the prisoners dilemma? If you all do that, I'll scoop them all for $1.01 ,)

ya the damn prisoners dilemma....



Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: BurtW on October 09, 2013, 10:58:02 PM
Nope, because I will get them all for $1.02.  And so it goes.

I expect after a lengthy trial, appeals, etc., once they no longer need them for evidence they will hold an auction just like they do for all the houses, cars, boats, etc. that they confiscate and they will go to the highest bidder at the auction.

If you are the only Bitcoiner at the auction (not likely) you would then be able to get them for a song.


Title: Re: Silkroad crash vs. Pirate crash
Post by: wachtwoord on October 09, 2013, 11:05:09 PM
Nope, because I will get them all for $1.02.  And so it goes.

I expect after a lengthy trial, appeals, etc., once they no longer need them for evidence they will hold an auction just like they do for all the houses, cars, boats, etc. that they confiscate and they will go to the highest bidder at the auction.

If you are the only Bitcoiner at the auction (not likely) you would then be able to get them for a song.

Normal (physical) assets usually do go cheap on such auctions. What do they do with confiscated stocks and bonds? What about PMs? If they auction those off too instead of market selling I guess the auction price will at best be only a few percent south of the market rate (but I'm only speculating).