Bitcoin Forum

This post tries to explore the point in time most likely that the FBI or any other entity in their place may announce the sale of their 600k BTC stash (78M USD at current prices).
Given they do so AT ALL. Representatives asked what to do with their seized Bitcoins have already announced that they will most likely "just liquidate them." (http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/10/04/fbi-silk-road-bitcoin-seizure/) after the trail. That goes for the already seized 26k BTC (worth 3.38 M USD at current prices) of Silk Roads hot wallet as well as the alledged 600k BTC in comissions, still held by Ulbricht in some wallet encrypted with a password possibly only known to himself. The guy is facing a life long sentence in prison if not for his drug business alone then maybe for some of the other charges brought up against him (including attempted assassination). This makes his vast fortune mostly useless to him and may be part of a bargain he strikes with prosecutors to drop charges or buy him lesser time in jail.

Just imagine the market's reaction the day it learns that 5% of all BTC in existence will be sold into the market after trail is over..

If it is exactly 600k BTC or maybe less is not so much important, as it will be a VERY large sum anyway. The more important question is WHEN the authorities announce that they have taken control over the money and will thus sell it into the market after the trial.

1 vote per user

“That incorrectly understands BTC and its use,” says Patrick Murck, general counsel at the Bitcoin Foundation. “1 BTC could change hands 9.5m times and generate ‘sales revenue’. In addition, many people don’t realize that, for the majority of Silk Road’s existence, the value of 1 BTC was less than $7 USD. It is only as recently as March 2013 that the value has risen over $100 USD.”

80million dollars is way over the top.  He still probably has a bunch of BTC somewhere that they haven't found yet.  Some were probably liquidated by DPR 'n friends somewhere along the way as well.

It's not like there will be more Bitcoins after the liquidation than before so the value won't change. If they do liquidate the BTC all at once and it will be that many there will be a very high amount of slippage probably and it will be a great buying opportunity. No idea how such a liquidation process takes place though.

If they don't get the 600k BTC and DPR dies with them then there will be 600k BTC less in circulation and the value of Bitcoin will be up 2.85% overnight (0.6/21).

They already indicated to sell them after the trial.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/10/04/fbi-silk-road-bitcoin-seizure/

I wonder if they even care. Maybe they think its fun or some kind of revenge on the SR community if they crash the market. Do they really need those peanuts caught in slippage?

Peanuts? Liquidating 600k at MTgox would lead to 69827353.77905 USD in slippage. Or nearly 70 M USD in slippage. They would get less than 12 M USD for the coins. And that's gox Stamp likely has less depth. If they are going to do this I'm going to have to think seriously about liquidating part of my stock portfolio. It would be close to getting a donation from the US government ...

Edit:

On Stamp the total buy order sums up to 184977.52, so you could buy the remaining 400k+ BTC for <$0.01 a piece if they liquidated there. Must be fun :)

The protective order obligates them to hold them until the civil complaint has been determined.  In real terms, that means until it's been established - either by trial or by a plea - that any of the offences which allow confiscation of the assets (including the BTC) have been committed.

The spokesperson said that they would "probably" liquidate the seized BTC.  They could, of course, fake the sale and hold onto all of them for use in future law enforcement operations.

If they are sold, it will likely be by public auction and not some method which allows purchasers to remain anonymous.

They might have to hold onto them until all the appeals are exhausted, otherwise they could be stuck in a situation of having to pay the cash equivalent (either for the price that they sold it at or the price that they are at when they lose the appeal, although the latter seems less likely).

How would faking the sale work? They'd say they sold them and hold them for operations? That strikes me as questionable compared to just buying new "untainted" BTC to use. This is especially true since BTC is very traceable by design so unless the FBI is willing to launder the money through a mixer, which would be difficult, time consuming, and expensive (since each mixer takes a cut) it would be useless for operations.

I have to agree with you n your last point. They'd go for a discount which would make someone a quick profit since they could, and if they were smart would, immediately turn around and sell them as the market will bear on MtGox.

Use seized money to buy some of the BTC at auction so that they appear to no longer be under federal control.  How are those that care going to establish which buyers were legitimate and which buyers were government agencies - the BTC are going to be transferred to the addresses of the buyers following the auctions so they don't need to send them through a tumbler. 

After that first transfer, you really have no idea whether subsequent transfers are the address holder selling their coins, using their BTC to purchase something or transferring the coins to another account they control.

Perhaps they would like for an exchange to be legal and operational. 

Are you asking:

When will they sell the bitcoins
OR
When the will make the announcement that they (in future) are going to sell those coins?

In the latter case, the announcement has been made already..

I think they would have to wait until after he is found guilty. Even then, I hope the keep it.

One of the bigger bitcoin entities or businesses or foundations will buy them. If it's even available to be spent.

Yeah, I suspect your right. They will probably auction it off.

There are several possibilities.

The State can usually sell seized stuff before the judgement only if they could seriously depreciate or die. In many instances food or live stocks were seized and they must be sold immediately. Don't think bitcoins can fall in this category.

In 99% of the cases, nothing is done until the judgement. Then, if the suspect is found guilty and the assets confiscated, they can be sold. Please note that it's not a choice, they MUST be sold. Or destroyed in some particular cases. So no, they cannot "keep" them.

But there is also the possibility of being acquitted, in this case the goods seized return to the legitimate owner. That's why the FBI cannot spend them before the judgement.. moreover part of them (only a few to be honest) belong to honest sellers and they will be probably returned to them when the case is closed.

How? "All drug dealers who we still owe money please come over and pick them up?" ;)

No, rather: "Mr. X, owner of the account xxxx who was selling second hand books on the SR, after a review of your specific account, we have found it wasn't against any Law of this country. Please provide us with a BTC wallet where your bitcoins can be returned to you. Regards. Ps. please excuse us if your funds have been frozen for the last three years. Shit happens."

As I said this would apply to a very few people, probably no more than 0.01% of the accounts on SR. That's what I meant :)

All that the FBI has is 26,000 BTC and a HDD/computer with DPR's encrypted wallet.

1) the wallet is encrypted, so whatever it contains does not belong to them until they obtain the private key - hacking/decrypting is not a possibility
2) DPR almost certainly used some of his coins to pay for things or trade for USD. It is likely that the wallet holds <300,000 coins at the most
3) It is almost unconceivable that DPR did not create a backup of the private key, or some form of "dead man's switch" that makes it easy/automated for the FBI's precious wallet to drain anywhere else in the bitcoin network without them being able to stop it.

Itll be after the trial at a auction

Hmm, what if they were to send those coins to let's say 26 000 000 different addresses ;D Or a decade or two more...

It could be interesting if they dump 600k BTC in one go.  :)

I don't think this would be good for anyone. Except haters.   :D

Definitely after the trial has been completed.

But, my question is, what exactly does liquidating them mean? Will they be sold at a low price or just all sold at exchange rate price?

Limit order $1 above last price would be the most logical, but this is government we're talking about, they'll pretend to be stupid and crash everything with a market sell and all but destroy the bid side of the book.

*moan* I guess people are still misreading the headline AND my description (not necessarily directed at you kiky).
Of course I ask for the date when they will ANNOUNCE that they intend to sell their 600k BTC stash, not for the date when they will actually sell it.

See, the mere announcment could wreak havoc over the market and deal some hefty blows to any upwards movement there is. And then once again when we near the day of the allegded sell off.

The auction or bitcoin buy will be off-exchange. It won't happen at Gox or Stamp or any other public exchange. It will be public and most likely you have to be physically there or you have to deposit your dollars at an FBI designated bank.

Obviously, it will not be anonymous.

The most likely scenario is a big entity or group will buy it, or some rich facebook twins or something like that.

This seems like the most likely option. Some large investor will just buy the whole lot in one go. They will then pay the federal government directly.

That aside you know what would be hilarious? If they tried to sell it on Mt.Gox. Good luck getting their money out. Or perhaps they would fix Gox with regulatory pressure to get their USD out.

They could even allow bidding for smaller parts, with sensible limit of minimum bid in terms of USD. Then just cut it in parts in order.

I understand, but it's a silly question! If an asset or a good of any kind is under seizure pending a trial, it cannot be sold. The State can sell it once is confiscated, which means that from that moment the State owns it. The confiscation cannot be declared that at the end of the trial. So what are we talking about? :)

First knightmb, now altoid. Not a good track record for 6-figure BTC holders. Who's next? ArtForz?

moved their money they did.... Why I do not know....

https://blockchain.info/tx/011c3ab10f8fcf815fe19ad1f44be47da372654c861a5b338dcb35aa4d094573

They are holding it just like we do, they think that Bitcoin could reach $1000 too :)

True, with 50BTC going to what looks like a vanity address: 1PexpessseHF8qkzDrGuuWZSLzm2887Qwa
Any clue?

From the pex address, it's already moved again. Interesting.

And 36k bitcoin = 6 million?

What do you mean they can not keep them? If they decide that that is what they want to do, who is going to stop them? I mean maybe you could say it would be politically unprofitable, but thats definately not at all the same thing as saying they have no choice. they have most of and the biggest guns in the world, they can do what ever the hell they please.

Assets in commission of crime that are seized are subject to liquidation guidelines from the DOJ. I'm unsure, but I have a feeling they can't just hold onto them. Seizures are such an ingrained part of law enforcement budgets now that they are only interested in dollars, anyway. And they don't have to wait until the trial is over -- not unless Ulbricht can prove fast that the coins were not used in commission of crime. Good luck with that....

I think that there will be a price drop :(

I am positive they will sell it via their own auction, possibly, even on their website.
They will separate 26k coins into 260 "lots" with 100 coins in each.
Then they will sell the lots for whatever the highest bid the auction generates.
This process allows the sale at the true market price.
Meaning, whatever the market thinks is the right price in this case.
I estimate that price would be 20-30% less then current prices on exchanges.

The good news is that prices on exchanges will take the nose-dive before the auction will start.
That is in anticipation of huge increase in supply.

Another thing, do no expect them to release the funds right after auction.
It will take them few days to actually send BTC to winners' wallets.

Also, I'm sure there will be some "eBay" type of people who would bid crazy amounts on some lots.
But I believe government is smart enough to separate into many lots.
Because this way they will make a lot more money than with a single or few lots.

this is the only way they do it. however, i don't know how easy it will be to find out when they are doing it, before they do it.

They actually announce it. It is in their best interest to bring as many people as possible.
They have this website: http://gsaauctions.gov (http://gsaauctions.gov) - where they auction off stuff.
You can see upcoming auctions for up to 1 month in advance.
Anybody can register and place a bid - credit card and verification required.
I've bought few cars from there. Pretty smooth experience.
I'm sure once they announce the sale of BTC - there will be news all over the place.
However, that is a pretty long time from now (few years?)

wow, i had no idea it was that easy to find info about and participate. thanks for the information!

The headline and OP are poorly worded, and why can't we change our vote? I voted for "after the trial", because that is when they will sell the bitcoins. But now I realize that I should have voted for - oh, wait it's not even an option - "they already did". They have already said that they will sell the bitcoins after the trial, so this whole poll and thread are complete and utter rubbish.

The auction site allows people to use a credit card? This might be the long awaited way for people to use a credit card to buy bitcoins!

By law they can't take DPR's property until after a trial. It's still his until proven it's illegally gained.

That said, I doubt they will dump it on GOX. They will call Citibank, slice it up nicely and auction it to the Chinese.

Yes, this particular one does allow it (2% fee when buying cars).
They include an extensive agreement. Doing charge-back is not wise.
I'm not sure if they will use this website or maybe they have some other one.
Sometimes, they also do $5k money order participation per-payment.
Meaning, you would need to give them $5k money order to be able to place bids.
If you win, this $5k goes towards the winning bid.
If don't win, they give it back to you.
But that's for high-end items: yachts, exotic cars, properties.

For BTC, I think they will do cash offers only (actual cash, money orders).
This would be great for buyers because the prices will be lower.
Not that many people will shell out $10ks in cash and money orders,
just to have a change to bid on some BTC.
In this case I would expect prices to be 50% off...

But again, we are talking years ahead.
Who knows what's going to become of BTC 3 years from now.

I doubt the FBI will sell them back because they're evidence.

How was it established that this is FBI's address? I thought it was only 1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX.

The US Government is required by law to announce it.
http://www.treasury.gov/auctions/treasury/rp/ (http://www.treasury.gov/auctions/treasury/rp/)
https://i.imgur.com/jNmRC4K.png