Bitcoin Forum

Since we are still in a Global Economic World Wide Depression I'm wondering what the general consensus is out there regarding:

1) What caused it (primarily)
2) What is your plan to get out of it (includes any laws or programs you would add or repeal)


I'll post my program after I put some finishing touches on it.

1) Printing money will-nilly.
2) STOP!

Simple, brief, yes... But added complexity wouldn't help anything.

Myrkul got to the root of it. I would add:

3) Decentralize superstates, pull out of the UN, neuter the non-essential authority of national governments
4) Rip all "carbon treaties" and emissions goals
5) Abolish national and global industry cartels ("regulatory boards")
6) Allow competing currencies
7) End imperial wars of intervention
8.) End involuntary, state-based foreign aid
9) Encourage localized charities over unaccountable, state-funded NGOs

That about sums it up.

End of thread.

So a deflationary panic meltdown of the market by cutting off all new credit?

This would result in millions of deaths and probably WWIII.

Try again.

If you know what is at the end of the road in the first place, why start down it?

Because without an excess of credit, the wealth it represents would disappear.

Yeah, this is a massive simplification. Honestly, the correct answer under the ideal conditions would be "End legal tender", "End most federal agencies (assuming we are recovering the US economy", "Cut taxes" and "Pull out of any international organizations that would attempt to stop the US from doing this for being a so-called tax haven (UN, World Bank, etc)" in that order. Without doing that, the best option would be "No bailouts, wait out recession, then jack up rates to clear out excess credit" (Kind of like the Volcker solution).

This is much better but lacking still.  I assume you are going with 1 & 2 from the previous post.  Well if you did the rest of your 3-9 wouldn't even matter because you would have complete disintegration of your political process to which we are dangerously close already.  Getting out of a global depression is like defusing a ticking time bomb and simply smashing it with a hammer of "quit printing money willy nilly" will not work unless we have some more clarification.  A deflationary crash to mimic the Great Depression won't help us right now but will kill millions of people.

What would you do to employee the global imperial army upon their return home from the stupid wars of aggression that we've been engaging in?  A bunch of out of work solders is a very dangerous thing to simply have 'laying around'.  What would you do to help return them into the workforce?

I would also say to sell 10-20% of our foreign bases to the countries that they're in.  I'm sure they're worth quite a bit and could help us pay down some debt.  Not all at once, you don't want to destabilize the world power structure overnight and you don't want to get 'fire sale' prices for the bases that we've spent so much money building, but most of them could be gradually sold off.

Other than that I agree with pulling out of the UN, ending the carbon treaties, probably most or all of 5 if you clarify, 6 I'm not a huge fan but perhaps you can make a great case for it, 7 definitely in 100% support of, 8 in favor of 90% of, 9 in favor of too - I'd pull many Foundation's non-profit tax status papers and shred them on public television.

As you seem quite educated I look forward to what else you'll add to this.

 :)

Because this path is preventable and we are choosing it by our actions and beliefs.

This is not an inevitable outcome.  It depends on the choices we make.

If we choose to cause a deflationary crash in hope that "the market" will save us many will die, this is a fact.  That is why I implore you to reconsider what you think a recovery program would look like.

Volckner solved less than he caused.  His actions devastated the industrial sector of the USA while chasing phantoms of inflation.  Inflation is about 13th on what the average person should be demanding out of a central bank policy.  In addition much of what the Central Banks consider inflation is a rise in wages -- to which they are against.  A 20% prime rate is exactly what we don't need right now.  That would cause incredible misery and hardship for 99% of the world and favor those that have money in this economy which really only is the rich and super rich, everyone else's effective debt burden would be greatly expounded by the deflation this would cause.  Works great for the bankers though, they sign you on to some debt when money is cheap (low interest rates) and then get you to pay that back after the price of money is made very expensive (high interest rates).

The overall lack of solutions being posted to this board proves the general ignorance of the member of this forum on economics.  That goes for all that aren't reading this.

 :D

This depression can be stopped almost overnight, this is a political problem not a failing of economics or a lack of solutions that do exist if we seek to find them.

Well, Please, enlighten us, oh Guru, that we may bask in your radiance, and make you Fed Chairman ASAP.

Uh, what?

Have you even heard of prices in the 70s? The US was a couple of clumsy rate decreases away from hyperinflation and collapse. Had Volcker not increased rates, the US would have been screwed over and Jimmy Carter's idiotic new government agencies wouldn't have helped in the slightest. As it was, he dealt with inflation and the US recovered from the recession and began to grow again. A lot of the growth was from easy credit policies, but at the very least the malinvestment of the past thirty years was cleared out and the economy was far healthier in the long run as a result. Mind, a solution like that might not work this time, it might take a more radical push (again, removing legal tender), but it would at the very least be better than bailouts, easy lending, lots of inflation, bailouts for other countries trying equally retarded strategies (Japan and the Eurozone lack the "worldwide reserve currency" status of the USA), and stagnation.

The facts of the 80s disagree with your wild claims about catastrophe from high rates.



"DAMN IT YOU GUYS! YOU AREN'T COMING TO THE CONCLUSIONS I WANT SO IMMA CLAIM YOU DIDN'T PROVIDE ANY SOLUTIONS"

derp

1. Automation.

2. What Depression?

Automation?

Don't tell me you're one of those "Robots will doom the workforce!!!1one!" people are you?

It's more than robots.
Barcode scanners for example
 Less than 50 years ago you could raise a family as a clerk. Now they have you doing it yourself.
Automated cars are a decade away. Do you have any idea how many people drive for work?
Just wait . You'll see.

Automation doesn't wreck the economy. Imagine how many scribes were put out of work when the printing press was invented.
Imagine how many harvesters were put out of work when the tractor was invented.
Automation doesn't ruin the economy, it shifts it.

We'll see about that in the next few decades when AI can not only do any job that even the most skilled and creative human can do, but can be trained much faster than the redundant human workforce. Prostitution might survive for a while, but I don't fancy manning a glory hole through my golden years

At least this batch of techno-alarmists is more entertaining than the last 50.

Fire bad! Thok like cold meat! Wheel Bad! Thok like walking!

If AI can do every job a skilled and creative human can, you've got a lot more to worry about than your naughty bits.

--

I agree that automation doesn't nec hurt workers, but it doesn't nec help them either under the current arrangement, as most of the profit from that productivity gain gets captured by the super-rich. If we lived in a different socioeconomic system, I'd be a lot more excited about advancements that allow productivity to be gained, because then it is much more liekly that people will actually have the choice to work less and maintain a basic standard of living - eg the mythical world where the dripfeed essentially provides you basic shelter and food for next to nothing and one can build on top of that.

As a singularitarian and technology geek I welcome our robot overlords, I just can't imagine new types of jobs for humans if technological change continues at its current rate.

I completely agree. Fire up the paperclip maximizer, we've got a solar system to tile!


Yeah, Russell wrote about a 4-hour work day almost 80 years ago (http://www.zpub.com/notes/idle.html). We've got all this extra productivity and no extra slack, no change at all.

That's not necessarily a bad thing. By definition, if there are no more jobs for humans to do, every human need will have been met.

Someone has confused saying automation has caused the current economic situation with saying technology displacing workers is bad. It's not bad per se. However it has been used in a way that the end result is bad.

Stop trying to read between the lines.

Fractional Reserve Banking is the main culprit IMO, together with assorted laws like legal tender and such. They have enabled the US & other govts to drown themselves in debt. You cannot fix anything without abolishing this system. It is designed to concentrate wealth in the hands of a few and this will continue no matter what policies are implemented. Millions may die due to the ensuing political and economic chaos, but this is largely unavoidable. You simply cannot run an entire planet on a flawed monetary system for decades and expect to fix things without pain.

Global? Only the 1st world are affected. Anything outside the Americas, Europe and Australia are doing just fine.

http://tarpley.net/five-point-program.pdf

30 MILLION PRODUCTIVE JOBS TO REBUILD US INFRASTRUCTURE, INDUSTRY AND
AGRICULTURE: THE PROGRAM TO END THE ECONOMIC DEPRESSION
 
by Webster G. Tarpley, www.tarpley.net
November 14, 2009
 

US infrastructure is pretty fucked up.

That's not necessarily a bad thing. By definition, if there are no more jobs for humans to do, every human need will have been met.
[/quote]
No, that's not right. Assuming that you still need food, water and shelter, how exactly would you convince anyone who owns the means of production to produce for you if you have nothing to offer them in return?

Well, either way you look at it, in a society where every need is met by robots, there won't be anyone who "has not"... at least, not for long.

Wow, I would like to see the financial picture of that in detail. Very interesting.

Although I don't think the average US citizen would accept such socialist plan (looking back at the discussion of the health reform plan of Obama). I think the democrats might be able to get enough support from their people to implement such plan, but the republicans would not give them the opportunity to do so.

I think American's typically have been so propagandized about the 'evils/dangers of inflation' that they are overly sensitive to inflation.  I'm sorry, while 14% doesn't sound immediately desirable that is a far far way from hyperinflation. 

Are you arguing that 14% is near hyperinflation or that it would somehow 'spark' a hyper-inflationary event?  If the former you're historically way off base and if the latter please explain how.

As for my comments regarding the lack of solutions there was only 1 person on this board at the time that I wrote that post that posted any 'program' worth a damn.  The other was 'let's trigger a hyper-deflationary meltdown and global panic' in the simplistic statement of 'stop printing money'.

And the elite's world-view is clearly when that time comes they no longer need us.

I think this is the rational for those that are afraid of such levels of technological development.  But I still think it's ill-founded.

I think you are mistaken about your overall premise:

1)  The primacy of debt in our system is obviously overpowered the rest of the political process, but most of this debt was private bank (excluding the Federal Reserve) issued for things like: leveraged buyouts, mergers, acquisitions, massively leveraged stock traders, credit card debt, soaring mortgage debt, etc.  As you can see from this list these are all examples of where by and large most of the newly issued debt went in the past many decades.  How many of those things sound productive?  How many of those things lead to legitimate economic growth?  How many of those things improve the lot of mankind?
2)  The problem of perpetual debt is not a main cause of our present problem.  I think it comes from the position of trying to see the economy as a state-based construct rather than a dynamic flow of ideas, productivity, research and human progress that can continue essentially in our present paradigm forever.  Reason is there is always wealth to be created and always new people being born and always new and better things to develop and better ways to develop them, hence the fact that there is always more debt (future value) than money (present value); consider that what the debt represents is embryonic growth of a future but when that future arrives there is a more valuable and better future right up ahead hence a never ending upwards trend.  The problem is the fact that all this debt was allowed to sweep up the economy in a tidal wave without adding to the overall value of the system as would research, infrastructure or something worth a damn.  So the overall burden of the actual productive economy has been beaten and bloodied by all what I'd refer to as "phony (non productive) debt".
3) Thomas Jefferson knew what the central bank was capable of and was opposed to it for a variety of reasons.  Some of them, I would argue, were completely in a self interested nature but the primary other to which he is quoted is that:

"If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered."

Notice that he isn't so much worried about the nature of printing money ad infinitum, as prices would remain somewhat stable on an upward trend if inflation remained somewhat low (depends to where the money is introduced into the system).  He is realizing with brilliant accuracy that it is the process of inflation (housing bubble, student loan prices ballooning, credit cards with easy terms) and then a deflationary crash (2008, stock market plunge, foreclosures, businesses going bust, depressed wages) helped along by the central bank to which Greenspan and Bernanke did nothing to stop is the worst engine of looting the populace.

The problem here is obviously the malfeasance of the Federal Reserve.  If we had a Central Bank much more along the lines of the 1st and 2nd Central Banks of the USA we could invest Trillions in rail and infrastructure projects, Trillions in research and be having 9% levels of economic growth like other countries who actually control their monetary policy in their own national interest.  

Thanks for posting that, I was going to post something similar expounding on what Tarpley wrote, this program is made to fit on a single piece of paper (1 page for each side).

Tarpley's program is fantastic and ambitious and shows you what is possible if we seize the greatest power in our world (the US central bank) and make it work for the cause of human progress instead of bankers and parasites.   I'd recommend anyone here who doesn't know who Webster Tarpley is to read his books and follow his radio program.  This man's intellect and wisdom is really something of a throwback to an age when things like that were valued above all else.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/07/25/general-eu-east-africa-famine_8582795.html

I'm not sure that this country will move 'this far to the left' (whatever that means anymore) until we have a complete meltdown or revolution, but I can hope.  I'd just be happy if we could stop our express train that we've been on for 40 years moving to the 'right'.  Pretty soon the politics will be so fascistoid that the political debate will be between choosing debtor prisons or concentration camps.

We have pundits on the radio laughing about people not getting an unemployment check and trying to destroy any means of social decency so we don't have old, sick, or disabled people dying in the streets.  The amount of cruelty and hatred in the general populace is starting to get nauseating.

Socialism means a different thing to each person you ask but if Tarpley's plan is socialist plan then sign me up.  If selling toxic Chinese plastic injected molded shit to each other is the best the naked Free Market has to offer I want alternatives.  Overall our level of GDP that is in the government sector is far lower than other 1st world countries and then when you account for how much of that is military spending it is pathetic.

If they get an economic depression, it's caused by all the "helping" they get. Hard working farmers that managed to get something produced won't be able to sell it then at all any more.

how is the economic depression causing a massive drought?

liquid crisis != liquidity crisis.

The only thing to make people more social is to do social things for them. It is strange that the US socialist party is pretty small if there are so many poor and unemployed people in the US (all potential voters for that party if they would help them directly). I don't think you need a revolution or complete meltdown to get a more social society. Just a change of how people take care for each other.

Part of the problem is compounded by the global rise in food prices.  Sorry, thought you'd be able to discern that yourself.

The propaganda has been very effective to keep people divided, fearful and hateful.

That's because we've been duped into believing that 'the market' will take care of us.  If we had public outcry and mobilization around these issues: full unionization, full employment and a 30 hour work week we could have them at even higher pay than what we all have now.

It's just an issue of political awareness and action.

I missed the part where it was mentioned how much power is actually there with me.

Assume I have the power to do what I want, then here are my prescriptions.

The free market seems to work through bubbles in which many things are tried out for one goal. The generalised american goal in the most recent past was making money out of real-estate, which made the americans feel rich, and in china, it was  - sell things to the americans!

I would try to create a bubble, at the end of which hopefully something positive is left at the end.

My favourite is charter cities. Give out empty land to consortiums to create new countries, where they can try out different laws and structures. Let a thousand nations bloom.

My second favourite is Life Extension. Create a prize for an extremely ambitious life extension goal. eg. 50 year olds with characteristics of 25 year olds.  The benefits of achieving this target are many, but the employment potential in the near term is relatively less.

My third favourite is Space. Create a very large prize for achieving an ambitious goal in space. eg. Mining a certain amount of material from an asteroid and bringing it back to earth. Space build up has the potential to create a whole ecosystem around it.
The other way to create a space race is defacto and dejure recognition of sovereignty of those who land and spend some time on any particular space object.

First, had rates not risen, it wouldn't have ended up being 14%. It would have continually risen until the US dollar lost its value entirely. Furthermore, any "recovery" would be plagued by malinvestment.

Second, your "hyper-deflationary meltdown" is completely unfounded. Please, point me to an example.

+1

True, most "aid" is just a geopolitical bulldozer through there economy so we can sell them our farm products.  And, of course, I'm against it.

Now we're thinking.  It really shows the increasing worthlessness of our elites.  As technology grows in leaps and bounds adult brats with trust funds will become increasingly and increasingly unable to successfully allocate capital to the projects that humanity needs.

Life extension.  A+++.  Great idea.  The problem we face too is that eventually the base levels of study of certain fields will take 20 years of college level training to have a general grasp on, to which our present lifespan will provide a barrier unless extended.  I'd issue 1 Trillion dollars of credit to discovering the cause of aging in a heartbeat.

It's funny if you think of popularized future versions of society (take Star Trek for example).  If you think we are going to get to that society from where we are at via the 'Free Market' I don't believe simply 'mistaken' covers it.  If so, please go read everything I've posted on this site and maybe you'll see that you're misled.

First, are we of the Friedman school that the Fed and the Government should try to fix all the problems of the economy simply by jiggering with the prime rate?  So... are you apologizing for 20% prime rates which devastated our industrial sector?  If the choice is between keeping an industrial sector or pitching it to avoid high inflation I'd choose saving the industrial sector every time... it sure would come in handy in our existing predicament, no?

Second, regarding the "deflationary crash" what else do you determine "stop printing money" to mean?  To me it means hyper-deflation, how could it not without an economic recovery program?

As for my plan it would be Webster Tarpley's plan (http://tarpley.net/five-point-program.pdf) + the following changes/additions:

Prior to building the 100 nuclear reactors build a few variant prototypes of Thorium Floride, Molten Salt reactors as these have the potential to provide basically unlimited power based on how efficient they are and how commonplace Thorium is (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rL08J7fDA).

Of course end the global empire and begin raising revenue by selling bases to the countries in which they reside at a fair market price.  Begin by selling 10% of foreign bases each year for 10 years (compounding).

I'd include a education bank that would provide 1% or 2% loans for student education with long repayment schedules.  Everyone could refinance their existing loans through this bank.  The money from the interest would pay for the administration of the loans and the excess (if any would go to the Treasury). But you'd see less crowding in schools as union pay scales and a living wage would mean that all the people that flock to higher-schooling that really have no business being there would no longer need to pursue said education.

End the pointless embargoes and restrictions on travel (Cuba) other countries with trade restrictions (Iran).

Start national companies (corporations chartered by the State) as follows:
US Oil: Oil Drilling, refining for whatever oil remains on state land.  If it is State owned Oil I want the State getting the revenue, not giving it away like a cheap prostitute to BP (British) or Shell (Dutch) Oil companies.
US Internet:  This company would have laid fiber optic lines to everyone in America by the year 2030, long term debt at or near 0% would provide for this and eventually you'd sell this company off once it was matured.

Probably others, need to think on that more.  It is an area seldom if ever discussed (state chartered companies).

I totally agree with you . There will be one product which will matter and that is energy . That will be the greatest battle . We have the technology to provide enough energy for free but this is clearly not wanted , because of economics.

Economics created the current situations. Forgetting economy will solve it.

...The libertarian way to stop world hunger is to give everyone a hot meal...