Bitcoin Forum

How much is a 50 GH/s BFL Bitcoin miner worth if it starts mining
at the 20. of October 2013.
Normally the difficulty is increased every 2016 blocks. Which is
about 14 days.

Szenaria with Current Difficulty Increase
The difficulty increase is calculated with 30% over each time
frame. This is the current increase per time frame.

Timeframe	Estimated dificulty	Revenue BTC / Timeframe
2013-10-20 - 2013-11-03	246,065,624	1.431
2013-11-03 - 2013-11-17	319,885,311	1.101
2013-11-17 - 2013-12-01	415,850,904	0.847
2013-12-01 - 2013-12-15	540,606,175	0.651
2013-12-15 - 2013-12-29	702,788,028	0.501
2013-12-29 - 2014-01-12	913,624,436	0.385
2014-01-12 - 2014-01-26	1,187,711,767	0.296
2014-01-26 - 2014-02-09	1,544,025,297	0.228
2014-02-09 - 2014-02-23	2,007,232,886	0.175
2014-02-23 - 2014-03-09	2,609,402,752	0.135
2014-03-09 - 2014-03-23	3,392,223,578	0.104
2014-03-23 - 2014-04-06	4,409,890,651	0.080
2014-04-06 - 2014-04-20	5,732,857,847	0.061
2014-04-20 - 2014-05-04	7,452,715,201	0.047
2014-05-04 - 2014-05-18	9,688,529,761	0.036
2014-05-18 - 2014-06-01	12,595,088,689	0.03
2014-06-01 - 2014-06-15	16,373,615,296	0.022
2014-06-15 - 2014-06-29	21,285,699,885	0.017
2014-06-29 - 2014-07-13	27,671,409,850	0.013
2014-07-13 - 2014-07-27	35,972,832,805	0.010
	SUMM	6.17 BTC

This is about 140$/BTC x 6.17BTC = 863.80$

Optimistic scenario

The difficulty increase is calculated with 20% over each time
frame.

Timeframe	Estimated dificulty	Revenue BTC / Timeframe
2013-10-20 - 2013-11-03	227137499	1.550
2013-11-03 - 2013-11-17	272,564,999	1.292
2013-11-17 - 2013-12-01	327,077,998	1.076
2013-12-01 - 2013-12-15	392,493,598	0.897
2013-12-15 - 2013-12-29	470,992,318	0.747
2013-12-29 - 2014-01-12	565,190,781	0.623
2014-01-12 - 2014-01-26	678,228,937	0.519
2014-01-26 - 2014-02-09	813,874,725	0.433
2014-02-09 - 2014-02-23	976,649,670	0.360
2014-02-23 - 2014-03-09	1,171,979,604	0.300
2014-03-09 - 2014-03-23	1,406,375,524	0.250
2014-03-23 - 2014-04-06	1,687,650,629	0.209
2014-04-06 - 2014-04-20	2,025,180,755	0.174
2014-04-20 - 2014-05-04	2,430,216,906	0.145
2014-05-04 - 2014-05-18	2,916,260,287	0.121
2014-05-18 - 2014-06-01	3,499,512,344	0.101
2014-06-01 - 2014-06-15	4,199,414,813	0.084
2014-06-15 - 2014-06-29	5,039,297,776	0.070
2014-06-29 - 2014-07-13	6,047,157,331	0.058
2014-07-13 - 2014-07-27	7,256,588,797	0.049
2014-07-27 - 2014-08-10	8,707,906,557	0.040
2014-08-10 - 2014-08-24	10,449,487,868	0.034
2014-08-24 - 2014-09-07	12,539,385,442	0.028
2014-09-07 - 2014-09-21	15,047,262,530	0.023
2014-09-21 - 2014-10-05	18,056,715,036	0.019
2014-10-05 - 2014-10-19	21,668,058,044	0.016
2014-10-19 - 2014-11-02	26,001,669,652	0.014
2014-11-02 - 2014-11-16	31,202,003,583	0.011
2014-11-16 - 2014-11-30	37,442,404,299	0.009
	SUMM	9.25 BTC

This is about 140$/BTC x 9.25BTC = 1295.00$

There is no energy cost calculated an no service charge. If you
will subtract this there will not very much left.
So what can you do?

Trash on delivery for the darkness of surroundings …

There is a thread, how to get a refund
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295187.0

May be that helps.

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If you found this helpful you can donate wit some BTC Cents
12y44k553rrDqaEZN7aYsXtqsg7vzhukXd

I would say 30% increase is optimistic, 20% is unrealistic.

You can use the estimates here:  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=301231.0

Also of interest:  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

How about 30% for the next two periods, then 20% after that?

The difficulty always adjusts at exactly 2016 blocks. If you are estimating 30% difficulty increases, then those 2016 blocks will take about 11 days, not 14.

Whatever you can get somebody to pay for it really..

exactly!!

However some people might use it to mine other coins so your calculation does not take this into account. Also what is the life expectancy on the device? Will they really last 2 yrs of continuous use? But yes mining is becoming a mugs game...so much for the decentralized network. If btc is worth $500/usd in 2 yrs then you would easily be in profit.

 

I already 100% ROI'd on my Block Erupter USBs by mining and holding PPC with them before the price doubled. :P  The "will never ROI" statements are silly to me.

I sold one with 12btc

I still think using a percentage to scale the difficulty constantly is silly in the long-term.  Sure, the hashrate will grow 30% each month (at least) for a few months, but I think we'll see a flattening, then another increase from various manufacturers around the end of the year, then another flattening.  It's anyone's guess though - interesting analysis - thanks for posting.

You will have much more profit, just buying coins.

This is just plain gambling. What if PPC failed to rise? What if you bought them for a sum you've spent for erupters? The "never ROI in BTC spent" statement seems to be pretty much true if the network continues to grow like insane and outdated devices get sold for BTC w/o accounting for network growth factor.