Bitcoin Forum

Obviously this post isn't for the buy&hold crowd, but for those who like to increase their btc 5-50times inbetween rallies.

Anyway, once btc breaks out, how do you know how high it's going to go? For example, when it breaks out from 16, 32 might seem very high and a good time to sell, but then it goes to 64, where it also seems like a fantastic time to sell, and at that point it goes to 128, etc... So how, at 266, would you know that it's finally a good time to sell and not at 512?

What indications are there when a btc rally is about to end or that a crash is about to occur? What could be seen at 32, at 7, at 15, and at 266? Is there a certain TA indicator you look at? Is there something in the blockchain you trace?

Should just make this a poll, then -10 from whatever the most popular choice is.

My question isn't "how high is this rally going" but "what information do you look at to predict a reversal".  I suppose a poll about how high this rally is going could also be created (perhaps in a separate thread).

I do not think that can be answered simply.  Especially for Bitcoin.

Trying to time the market is a fool's game. I just sell a portion of my coins whenever the price goes up. The higher the price goes, the more I sell. Then when the price crashes, I point and laugh at everyone who tried and failed to predict it.

Don't be greedy, sell some on the way up. Get the dollars to buy when there's a panic crash.

people usually check high point for it.

Normally, a reasonable way is +/- 5 dollars. Try not to trace the highest as there is evidence to say that you will fail at the highest point. Just not to be too greedy.

When everyone is buying! That's the best time to sell!

Succesfull trading takes time, experience and good analys. There is no simple magic way you can use to sell at high point

It is all luck. You can be right nine times then make one mistake and negate everything. Nothing but a gamble.

You just sell a little per month, so there is always more left in your wallet than there was before you spent.

I don't understand this mentality to increase your bitcoin holding by trading (or much more accurate would be gambling). If we think that bitcoin will be revolution for money, then its price will be very big in few years. Which means that its not too big difference if you will have 100 or 200 bitcoins because you will be rich anyway.

If you think that you can make 100 bitcoin starting with 1 then good luck to you.

But if you will be too greedy, then you may even end with half of the bitcoins you started with - that is why to me best option is to just hold, use and buy more when they are cheap.

Sell at 130 - buy at 100.  8) (Bitstamp)

I understand your argument but it is off-topic.

Of course there are no clear indications when to sell. Trading Bitcoin is extremely risky because of the volatility. Going short is even more risky as the price of BTC (against fiat) is in a longterm upward trend (adoption based growth).

It's the same as with futures/stock trading: The majority of traders loses money. If someone actually did have some magic prediction model he would'nt tell you, because the more people know about it the less likely it will continue to work.


ya.ya.yo!

Of course there is no answer. This market is definitely PRIMED for a huge bear trap if we see another run up however. I recall reading large investment institutions have investigated bitcoin and due to its low market cap cannot take it into consideration until it hits about $400. So if we ran up to that point most here would expect a mass sell-off but you must consider the possibility of new entrants with HUGE capital entering the market-space as it goes higher....

Of course there are signs of a top...
One being Bearish Divergence. It shows a slowing of momentum and strength in the trend.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1381795914989.png
This is using MACD and RSI. There are other indicators that tell the same story, too.

There is a way to pull this off but it requires the invention of time travel.

Personal strategy (be prepared for extreme noobishness):

Sell when 1D RSIstoch goes below the 80 line after being above it for more than a day when the market is moving. By moving, I mean having increased by at least 30% since it was last below the 20 line. After I sell, I wait for the market to go down below the 20 line again, then I buy.

No, its not a daytrading strategy, but my general goal is "buy and hold but increase your holdings through a quick flip once and a while." The basic concept is trying to hitch onto market corrections when the market is breaking a trend. If you aren't catching a trend-break, it doesn't work too great in my experience.

This is a brilliant post. I think it underlines why I didn't even contemplate selling when the price first hit $200. (Not to mention that I'm mostly crap at trading the bitcoin/fiat crosses; I have done much better flipping altcoins; litecoin has been good to me in the past.)

+tip byronbb some amount of µBTC some time soonish :)

These strategies (and most others) work sometimes but they don't work consistently enough to return a profit longterm. You will loose money longterm because of false signals.

But it's always more fun to learn it by doing... ;D


ya.ya.yo!

"We all know when to buy, but when do you sell?"

Apparently not any time in the last week.

Sell your USD, EUR, etc now (buy bitcoin) and never look back! Why would you want the constantly depreciating USD, EUR, etc?