Bitcoin Forum

We have been laughing at fund managers and analysts from Wall Street, but are they really trying to spread FUD or are they telling us the truth that we cannot accept?

Also, has the bubble not already burst or is Allianz's Stefan Hofrichter trying to tell us that it might fall some more?

https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2018/03/1521038454_760xchart-bitcoin.jpg

"It appears to us that bitcoin mania is a textbook-like bubble – and one that is probably just about to burst," the asset manager's head of global economics and strategy, Stefan Hofrichter, said in an online post distributed Friday. "As a currency and asset class, bitcoin has potentially fatal flaws – which is why we believe it's a matter of when, not if, the bitcoin bubble will pop."

Bitcoin has fallen sharply since leaping 2,000 percent in the 12 months through December to a record high above $19,000. The cryptocurrency was trading near $8,700 on Wednesday, according to CoinDesk's bitcoin price index.

The cryptocurrency "ticks all of the boxes that we consider to be essential criteria of any asset bubble," including a fivefold surge in trading volumes over the last five years, lack of financial regulation and the launch of related financial instruments such as bitcoin futures, the Allianz report said.

Read in full https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/bitcoin-bubble-just-about-to-burst-major-money-manager-says.html

What do you want to know exactly? The guy's right of course in everything he says. Way too many flaws in bitcoin to ever become a success. 14 transactions per second, that's just never going to work.

I have seen this sort of behavior about it being the worst bubble ever created and I was just rolling my eyes at this speculation of cryptocurrency over all.
If it has survived this long then I do not believe it can be defined as just a bubble.
The dot com era was what? Around 4-5 years?
Bitcoin has been around double that amount of time in existence.
So it is really hard to believe it can just vanish in a flash that is what a bubble really is(value wiped out completely) insisting in what it is to the economy it has been created so far.

Knowing where the bottom will be would be nice hehehe.

But what flaws? How can bitcoin be decentralized and be fast at the same time? If any developer has found a solution, it would have been implemented already.

Also I disagree, bitcoin has been working well enough before all the craziness of Wall Street arrived.

But that's exactly what the author is saying. Bitcoin has problems in the core of its system, the blockchain, it won't scale so it can never work.

I'm finding his angle a little silly. Of course last year was a bubble and it is indeed bursting.

He nominates a five year time frame for that bubble and for much of that five years Bitcoin was thrashing around at the bottom of the toilet in the emphatic reverse of a bubble.

Anyway, nothing new here beyond that. The same words have been said a million times now by a million different 'experts'.

price may fall more, it may even fall big time and much lower but i still wouldn't call it a bubble burst. the bubble bursted long time ago and it was over. now it is just pure manipulation and dumping that is crashing the price.

hopefully we get to a bottom that eventually ends all the bubble talk and the rise after that is more solid, so we may find a silver lining in this after all.

Yup! I Agree with you, And I really think that the CNBC news were just doing their work but the information is really some kind of a FUD so that manipulators would do what they want and people would think that this can be a bubble, I really wish the bottom can be This $7000 USD and don't drop bellow there and please don't panic to much because this is what manipulators wants they want us to sell our bitcoin so they can buy on a cheaper level, This can really happens sometimes and if they can get what they want they will be ready for the big leap again and profit for it.

I think he is trying to tell us that it will fall more and we should expect more declining than progress. Bitcoin is at the state of bearish market and that do not mean the bubble has busted. I think any moment from next month the coast will be clear and we would know the directions of the price. The technology behind bitcoin and blockchain technology is very strong that we can not actually said bitcoin is going to come to an end!

I would really like to know how all those experts invest their own money. Apparently, they are negative on everything they don't know

Pretty much. Don’t understand something or regret missing the boat then trash talk it.

In a moment like this it is very easy to be negative,we see that from many "experts" who are trying show the situation much worse than it really is.They are also negative last year,but they were wrong.Now they are speaks the same story again,what's going to happen this year only time will show.

After ATH and correction BTC is in the situation where it is subject to manipulation,who have much BTC and money control the market and move price up&down, and in that process they successfully exploited every bad or good news.

Based on the last year most of us expected that price will continue to go up,but maybe this year will be completely different.For those who have been for years in world of crypto this situation is nothing strange,and the year has just begun,who knows what can happen in month or two.

It's more of a FUD and this has been said for so many times and we all have itching our ears with these FUDs.

I doubt it they don't know bitcoin, they knew it already and they know how to get a good entry point while missing the bottom. And this is how they do it by saying that bitcoin is bla bla bla.

He means the bubble has a whole breaking, not just our usual retracement. Think on a large-frame logarithmic scale regressing multiple orders of magnitude.

- Fivefold surge in trading volumes : It shows people are interested to buy or trade bitcoin including some big whales
- Lack of financial regulation : Financially regulated hedge fund and banks are known for some of the big market crash. LOL
- Launch of bitcoin futures : They are just for whales to play with and don't have direct impact on market price of bitcoin. Market price and future price of bitcoin can have different price at same time.

Bitcoin network is strong, secure but yes price can fluctuate. Even if many whales will exist new support will always be there for bitcoin, many people are looking to make an entry whenever price get dumps.

Financial managers are sometimes forgetting that with crypto, they are not dealing with stocks. They are dealing with an unregulated market system that is controlled by the cartel of exchanges. The cartel owns enough coin and made up dollars, that they can make the graph move in a very unnatural way.
Bitcoin bubble doesn't burst, it just stops inflating and that already happened in December. Now is the period when the downfall is slow enough to keep the sheep exited with a constant flow of new "reversals". This can happen for several years and if governments won't crack down on tether and similar schemes, then exchanges will be able to pull another bullrun out of their arse with the help of fake money.

It is common and ordinary to traders to get carried by emotions when things are not going their way. It also hurt a lot when you invested a lot like you want to curse and shill everyone on your reach. My guess is, this Allianz dude got carried by emotions, invested into bitcoin and bite into the first drop last December hoping to double or triple. Now that price is declining, he got scared and sold at great loss hoping to buy back at lower price. It hurts.

Welcome to crypto's!

I don't see how we can have our final 'fatal' bubble without mom and pop putting junior's college and Daddy's sex change fund in via their broker and then all committing suicide. This geezer is very premature in calling time on our absolutely 100% certain demise.

A lot of money that arrived is dumb. It's far from the dumbest yet. There's still a huge amount of friction to overcome.

On the other hand, compared to other bubbles this crypto nonsense has been going on for way too long already. So that's also reason I'm starting to think he's right and that it might be over very soon now. I think the public is starting to realize it's not working now the transactions are going down and shops are stopping to accept it.

That is true, after all what shop would like to accept something inconvenient to pay with and has slow transaction speed? If bitcoin wants to get accepted by many stores again, it needs to improve and be able to accommodate more transactions per second and if situations doesn't improve soon, for this reason, I am also starting to think that the so called "Bitcoin bubble" by the experts will soon pop.

Blockchain had proved itself to be the best technology that government are trying to come up systems to use it. its been more than 5 years and its price tank to $19K. Yes last year bubbled up but they'd have to analyze it again when after 5 more years they'd see the price goes more than $30K. But then of course they still will look at it as bubble - everything is a bubble to them.

Most of these so-called "experts" in their respective fields often find themselves being the laughing stock whenever bitcoin goes against what they've observed. Let's put it at this, if I'm an expert in trading eggs and the issue I'm talking about, or giving my "expertise" to is the market of lamb meat, which is essentially the same since they can be classified as livestock yet entirely different since the factors and forces affecting the markets of each are somewhat completely different. Now if I tell you, as an expert in trading eggs, that lamb meat are somewhat stupid to buy since, well, only the rich people can afford such, would you listen to me or try to deviate from my statements? Same goes for financial experts/stock market gurus giving their biased opinions in the cryptomarkets. They hit the spot when "legality" is the topic, but little do they know that the governments are slowly inching towards accepting and recognizing bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies as a new asset class by bringing in fair and just regulations (though not all of the countries do this, tbh, but still..)

It seems to me that bitcoin is not a bubble. But the problems started after the speculators on wall street got into the market with futures. They are able to easily manipulate the market and have billions of revolutions. It seems to me that futures this is a mistake. But we have a lifeline. This is the use of bitcoin as a currency. Perhaps this will allow bitcoins to get a more even distribution among people that will make prices more stable.

I thought that the Bitcoin bubble would have bursted back in 2013 when it hit $100 for the first ever time. I can remember the 'experts' of the traditonal world stating that it wasn't possible to reach $100 firstly, and secondly, if it would reach $100 that directly would be its ultimate price from which it would never be able to recover again. Funny thing is that within the same year the price broke through $1000 as well. I think it's safe to say that as long as 'experts' keep speculating about Bitcoin's bubble that will burst, we have plenty of room for growth left. I would be more worried if all experts suddenly start to express their confidence in Bitcoin and directly admit that it isn't a bubble, lol. I can feel how bitter people are, let that bitterness burn inside them for plenty of more years. ;)

I fully agree that Bitcoin is a big bubble and it is in fact now bursting BUT one thing I love about Bitcoin is that the bubble keeps on resurrecting itself...and then the cycle will begin anew. And of course, later on we will hear the same analysts (maybe having different names) telling us that Bitcoin is a big bubble that is about to burst. This is again just a cycle and there will be many people in this world who will not get tired repeating the same story, the same warning and the same results...partly because they know that the news-hungry mainstream can be listening to them and at the end of the day these analysts would be enjoying the little fame and authority they created for themselves.

You do realize the lack of scalability makes blockchain unusable for payment systems?

The so called "bubble" already bursted, at $20k, and we already bottomed, at $5900. We may go lower? yeah who cares if you buy at $5900, $4000 or $3000, long term Bitcoin will be worth millions a coin so it's irrelevant.

This guy is yet another losser to add within bitcoinobituaries.com

Do we actually give a fuck about these analysts. They are specialized in stocks and not in cryptocurrencies. Even if bitcoin is supposedly a bubble, what is going to happen after that? Panic selling? As if that doesn't happen already. People stop using crypto? That's possible but this might not be the case for crypto. Bitcoin's price goes back to 1000$? Please. A year and a half ago it was the same. We'll get over it.

Why do you believe that? I just don't see how a coin that only can process 14 tx/sec can ever be a success.

Yes, I reckon we should. They have the experience in trading, the markets in general and may have also studied economics, banking and finance and behavioural finance. While we on the other hand are nothing but random people in the internet running our mouth like we know a lot about the markets.

Remember Bitcoini is just a code and the development is on its way.  Developers can solve this by addressing the scalability and even beat the coin that process the most every second.  That said, when all the flaws is fixed and FOMO kicks in, the  predicted price may happen.  It has finite supply and demand is growing.  And that fact cannot be changed.

You are right. That's why LN will mean the next big step making Bitcoin price grow orders of magnitude in tx bandwidth along with its price.

This current bubble has bursted, doesn't mean that BTC won't get pumped in the future.

The person here is literally just reciting what he is seeing, it's not a prediction. The crash already happened. There has been a 60% or so reduction in price since the all time high of bitcoin in December last year. If that's not a bubble bursting, I don't know what is.

Bitcoin will be useful well into the future, and people will start to find it as a real way to store their wealth.

I'm a long term believer in bitcoin. The current crash could go lower, but it won't affect how bitcoin performs long term, just like the 2013 bubble which everyone thought was the 'end of bitcoin'.

Better swap those shorts for longs, were you able to buy enough? ;-)

https://blog.lightning.engineering/announcement/2018/03/15/lnd-beta.html beta released
https://lightning.network/ - scalability -> millions of transactions per second

It will be very difficult to let this so-called bubble burst. I suppose that the wisest men understood that blockchain can change the life of everybody.

Haha, LN, that hippy idea you mean? That won't ever work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2792933.0

That summary you do there is full of errors and wrong assumptions. LN and other L2 additions are the future. If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry

Don't give me that crap(assuming its not sarcasm). Even a 12th grader has studied economics/finance/accountancy or whatever. Its basic commonsense that one should have. Crypto traders are not any less smarter than stock traders,only experience is a main difference.We are NOT random people. We are bitcoiners,we have our own badge of Honor. This forum clearly depicts that and its about time people realize it.
People are stupid but as time goes by,they'll learn.

I'm feeling this might be the time for an almighty crash.   Because it's looking more and more likely.  Recoveries are not good now.