Bitcoin Forum

Saw this article that show how Mt Gox's trustee trades had an impact that moved the market from Dec 2017 till Feb 2018.

Transactions on exchanges:
Sales #1 (2017-12-22) - 6000 BTC
Sales #2 (2018-01-17) - 8000 BTC
Sales #3 (2018-02-07) - 4000 BTC
Sales #4 (2018-02-08) - 4000 BTC
Sales #5 (2018-02-09) - 10000 BTC

66,344 BTC remaining for Kobayashi to liquidate.

Does this mean BTC (and all other crypto) going to drop further?

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/effects-of-mt-gox-trustees-400-mln-sale-on-bitcoin-market

I think the anaysis and conclusion in the article of Cointelegraph are rather interesting, as it shows less of an impact of the Mt Gox selling
on the Bitcoin price then was first assumed by many. Basicly it turns out to form a lessor factor in the current longterm downtrend.

This longterm downtrend was anticipathed by many traders ahead of the actual start of the downtrend, only to those new
to the market it all came as a large shock, somehow they got the impression that Bitcoin price would not suffer any longterm
price corrections and would just go straight to the $50.000

With regards to the title of this thread, i think i would have named it : Winter has arrived

Well it be in his best interest to not crash the market, rather or he could do so and buy it back up. Probaly just more market manipulation. It feels like many forces restraining bitcoin prices, if they left it alone it be at 25k already.

I read another article about Kobayashi, saying that he can't dump the rest before the next court case, appointed for sometime during Q4 2018. But I don't think his BTC was the reason for the price dip. Every month are mined more than 10K BTC and in a single day the volume is much higher.

Interesting read indeed, and not a bad analysis of the analysis. Like you said, a lot of decently relevant people did say we should prepare for the winter. I recall very well that Charlie Lee in the same week that Litecoin hit its all time high, Tweeted that people should not have short memories. He warned that anyone who had enough years should be happy that crypto was up, but should also be prepared for LTC to dash down to $20 again. Everything happens in cycles. And we should be well prepared for a long winter.

Yet many people criticised Charles Lee and hated him for that, time is proving him right once again.

I don't know how long this bear market will last but it could be well years. 2013 growth was followed by years of sideways, declines and pain

Now that these stolen BTCs are all sold out. The markets were very tempting.

It was the reason. Can you imagine how 35k worth of bitcoin and 35k bitcoin cash got dumped into the exchange instantly? We saw he that, Kobayashi was not interested in use auction service to sell his bitcoin.
It looks like Kobayashi tries to take advantage of the market. Majority of countries are auctioning their bitcoin that being seized by the miners or the thief.

I think it contributed to the drop but it wasn't the driving reason - the market was already in freefall before then.
And as has been said, the rest can't be dumped for a good few months yet pending the court decision.

I read somewhere they might rise up again in the middle of the year but not before

If the buyers is not strong i think the price will be going down every month after its mined 10k bitcoin in a month.
10k bitcoin is not small amount and i am surprise that the price not going so deep.

According to the article Kobayashi is planning to sale 166,344 BTC which is only 0.9% of the total bitcoins in the market.
That doesn't make sense that 0.9% will effect the price, however if other whales join the same ship then may be there are chances for a slight downfall but the probability is till too low.

If winter is coming soon, what should we prepare?
How long will this winter last?

But for the moment I do not really think about it, I just focus on adding my assets to become more.

It will affect the price because most of the people who invested in bitcoin are holding it and not planning to sell, so there are only a few btc on exchanges. 0.9% can totally dump the price to 0

Well winter is already here and it’s been a while. Market is suffering for almost three months now and it’s not giving signals of recovery yet. Those sells are effecting the market for sure and it seems they will keep coming but he is also lowering his own income by lowering the price in that short time. If they sell it in very long time spans they can sell it from much better price.

I think that is just FUD.

The next selling isn't going to happen at least until September as the court has set the date in that month for the next hearing. So relax until than and don't panic till then.

I do not think bitcoin will drop further. Please trust and invest in bitcoin. As much as investing, the cost of bitcoin will increase dramatically, which is the growth rule of all altcoins in the crypto market.
That's just FUD and you should not believe them. These rumors are cutting the price of the bitcoin because people worry and sell off all their bitcoins.

I do not think the BTC will drop further. Many crypto market experts have estimated the value of bitcoin in 2018 to be $ 30,000 at the end of the year.
I believe that because of the bitcoin price, there are a lot of people involved in investing in bitcoin. So their prices will continue to grow and never go down.

This is a chance to buy a cheap bitcoin, but I hear that the remaining 160,000 will have to wait until after September.

I don't care if it's winter, I only want to live, the real master should be the people who changed the national currency into bitcoin.

Can bitcoin go to zero? No, why not? Because not all countries are one mind. No one and no organization can kill bitcoin.

The fact is that this is the pyramid of Samara day and without anyone's help. Just look at how the market reacted when a different number of coins were thrown onto the market. Bitcoin does not have that value to confirm its price.

I don't know but for those big money looking to get into crypto it make sense to allow the price to crash and get it cheap later. I personally don't know the exchange on which the sale is going on but if this figure is crashing the makret this shows how thinning the whole market is because I feel we should be able to absorb that amount of BTC entering the market

BTC is hardly. Too many money was invested. And too large whales have already entered. But we need some great correction. 90% of all tokens are shit. And we need to clear market

February and March have always been a bad month for BTC. Markets should warm up during April and May.

Bitcoin surely will fall, for the altcoins are not sure, they must sometimes not be so dependent on the top. We hope that the whole market will turn over and the leaders will change.

How cold will this winter get?

I do not think it will matter much, as btc still has daily volume over 100 billion, so if some one sell even $50 million worth btc at a time, it will not have any major effect on market, bulls will be back soon we just need more volume and buying momentum.

'
Or June and July  ;D It's not statistics only. Now we see directional attack. 'A la ger com a la ger' or somehow so. The best strategy is wait and a few trade to increase own deposits  ::)
Easy, guys

All altcoins follow the price of bitcoin during both bear and bull market. Nothing is guaranteed in cryptos so let's hope for the best possible scenarios. Mt Gox selling pressure is threat for future prices of bitcoin and unfortunately we dont have a power to change this reality as a community of crypto enthusiasts.

At least we know that the next dip will start in September. From April until then it will be a sharp upwards correction, back to the ATH and then further up the mountain. It will plateau as he starts to sell but i doubt he will want to crash the market completely. He saw what happened last time, it won't be repeated.

I don't think they will dump the price much more, they have to refond all the mtgox cliente that lost a lot of money back in the past, it's not in their interest, they will surely try to keep the price up to refound ad much ad possible

Nah, it wont go down more than what is right now, i am expecting to see bitcoin between $7800 and $9200 from those last weeks of march and the middle of april.

Let's expect to see it going up, but it is good to have a stable bitcoin right now.

There is nothing remaining. he rest will be returned to MtGox owners.  What was sold is what MtGox is over to debtors. Now they have USD to return them.  Basiclly sell happened at end of January and beginning of February. In only 3 weeks that is why had some impact.  If he would start selling in November and was selling 3 months instead of 3 weeks would have zero impact.

Good days will come. Keeping up is sometimes very difficult. I think this moving market is devastating to me. Bitchco will get better price levels. Basic logic patience.

Winter does seem to be here. Prepare for the long haul, since it seems like we'll be in a bear market for at least a few more months.

In my opinion, no single seller should be able to move the market on his own - except maybe Satoshi himself.

The coincidence of Kobayashi's sells with some price movements are interesting, but they wouldn't have driven the price down if the market hadn't overheated and the bubble was about to burst. Many investors were taking their profits in the last months, so if Kobayashi had some influence, it only amplified an existing trend.

I don't rule out a crypto winter, but for other reasons. The reason is that much money flew into cryptocurrency projects that do not have any chance to succeed - at least, they have absolutely no possibility to make the majority of their investors "rich" in some way, and that's what they were promising. The reasons are varied: some were outright scams from the beginning, others have only a tiny niche market, others have shady "features" that don't solve problems nor generate new use cases, and others are developing their proposal way too slow.

People are selling these "hypecoins" now that fueled the extreme 2017 rally. Some coins like XVG lost about 90% of its value during the peak, while Bitcoin, with only a 60% loss, is still one of the more stable cryptocurrencies and increasing its dominance again. I expect this trend to continue, and most of the hypecoins will fall into total irrelevance.

I expect there will be a slow trend reversal for some technically interesting altcoins in the second half of 2018. For the rest, the winter will continue.

Right! There will be a big shock for newcomers to bitcoin. When bitcoin has lowered the price. They gave up a bit of cash to buy the bitcoin but could not get it back but lost. That is sad. Virtual world money is not successful so everyone must learn thoroughly. First of all, earn a bit of hard work from the campaigns that bitcoin offers.

35K BTC are just 280-400M, depend on rates. Bitcoin alone have 10x daily volume.

Yes, they are 280-400M cash flow withdraw, but it can't cause a 50% price drop. Otherwise we could count crypto's as dead if 1% of total cap withdraw can ruin it with 50%.

Not very high volume not in very proper time. Why they sold everything on panic sell on the bottom when everything start to recover? IMHO they just trying to manipulate market:( Most people just follow the trend selling their BTC in red candle this effect gives multiplication to big portion of sold in one piece BTC -  everybody waits for bad news when they see this.

Yes I was having a detailed look at the 2013 year in crypto today - Coinbase established, the first ICO in July 13 for MasterCoin and the birth of LiteCoin as well as another 90 odd new coins released that were mostly scams, and the 9,500% run up of bitcoin from $13 to an ATH of $1,130 on Nov 29 2013 before it crashed 80% in a jagged fashion. And yes it might do well to remember now that bitcoin sat around $250 for all of 2014, and then around $200 for the first 9 months of 2015 before it rose to $400 in the last quarter - and then slowly rose through 2016 to end the year at ~$1,000. So people who bought bitcoin at $1,130 in November 2013 were still underwater over three years later in December 2016!

As Charlie Lee tweeted we should not have a short memory, and we should not forget the past! I believe the charts and demographics suggest bitcoin should revisit its ATH of $19,000 in Dec last year by the end of this year - but I am mindful that history shows that bitcoin may still be priced under that ATH in three years time at the end of 2020! As is emphasised over and over when you join the cryptocurrency investing world, it’s important advice to - “Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose!”.

I agree that winter has just started, we have a couple of months before spring. There are a lot of uncertainity in the market. Mt.gox issue is the first, high increase in one year is another. Most early buyers are still taking profits and I am expecting another leg down.
Regulations and technical problems in bitcoin is still a problem, and we need to see more real life use of cryptocurrency as soon as the enthusiasm is over.

I fully share all your words.

The real crux is the integration between criptocoin-real life

Studying every day a lot of material related to Bitcoin, because all the coins follow it, I am increasingly convinced that 2018 will be difficult for the cryptocurrency, and it is possible that we may not see those numbers in the price of bitcoin that everyone talked about at the end of 2017! But in any case, we can still earn even in this not stable market.

Wow...i just read and get this info and probably this bear market os really because mt gox trustee selling their bitcoin. As far as i know they have 200k btc and if they sold 64k its mean they still have 130k btc to dump. We will see $5000 in the near futures and  we will bounce to arround $7000. 200k on them can make a dip but still can not make btc death. Dont panic !!! If you want to hold. Hold your btc tight untill the end of 2021 or if you new to this buy btc gradually dont go all in.

This may seem offtop, but ... it's snowing today, getting colder. And this is the 2-nd half of March. Seriously, now there are no prerequisites for the spring of crypto, except that prices have fallen significantly)

There's still a lot remaining to be sold off but the price they're reported to be wanting to sell at is around ~$10,000 and this would be occurring later this year when the market should be able to absorb most of the dumping

Absolutely sure with you. According to technical analysis I think we will reach $ 10K mostly $ 12K in the middle of June and then will drop to $ 3K my be lower. This year will be only flat. recovery will start only next year.

Maybe yes but dont lost our hope and pray it for increasing the BTC . we know the fact that this is only know about him but we dont know the future so dont panic it is not good but i know btc will never been die .

Hope it will not going to drop more. I still believe that Christmas and New year are the best time to sell bitcoin so hold on no matter what.

According to the latest trend of bitcoin and i think we will still at the stable area. If the bitcoin can't break $8k barrier and it will be so difficult to reach another barrier in the future.
I believe at the last year bitcoin will try to recover itself and we will go to the moon. In fact there is a lot of good news are coming to the crypto space especially from US.