Bitcoin Forum

Hey guys it's Jason and I'm back with another video. This time it is on how bitcoin has broken the 2 and yes I know now 3 Petahash mark.
Go check it out :)

http://youtu.be/2r2cmFrC8v0 (http://youtu.be/2r2cmFrC8v0)

Miners are not happy at all... this is getting completely crazy.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small-lin.png

I could see why GPU miners would be made but didn't the people buying ASIC's take this into account when they bought their ASIC's?

To this degree? Maybe not. I expected a 100x increase from the pre ASIC levels. This is exceeding they with no sign of slowing.

I guess no one expected this kind of grow.

Yea, and I can see anyone who bought ASIC Boards even just 2 months ago are quickly losing the possibility of making ROI anytime soon now :(

The situation looks not that bad if you use log-scale :P
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small.png

in percentage increase it will slow down to single digits soon and it may even turn negative on occasion. a 50 million increase is 25% at 200 million but only 10% at 500 million. That's why I'm now loading on gear from everyone that is dumping it if the price is right (read bargain).  :o

lol yep I guess we will have to wait and see what happens :P

The end result will be that mining will be in the hands of a few dozen big farms and Bitcoin will have become centralized by default.


~BCX~

Hope we can do something to deal with that.

Not likely as ASICs are very expensive to buy in large enough hash power to return ROI presently.

Looking at San Francisco Craigslist there are four 60 ghs BFL ASIC miners for sale cheap as people are dumping low hash power ASIC's. At today's BTC price and Difficulty it would take about 5-6 months to break even and as we all know, 5-6 months is a very long time in the crypto world.

Today that 60ghs will average about $20/day. If price remained steady (it won't) in 4 months or so when the diff will cross 1,000,000,000 that same 60 ghs produces about $5/day...

So all that will remain mining will be the diehards at a very small collective percentage and commercial farms, thus the centralization I spoke of.

Of course, all of this just opinion.

~BCX~

If you know how to read that, it does.
Even on the logscale, you can see the graph rising (aka not just keeping the upward trend, but going faster), that is crazy.

4 months to achieve 1,000M difficulty? I guess just in 2 month we will be there.

Like you, I think that this will be a problem if we can't solve the future mining centralization. But I also believe that we will find the way.

Yeah I was being optimistic....

A year from now that 600 ghs ASIC Miner that BFL has as vaporware for preorder will lucky to punch out .001 BTC/day.


~BCX~

That's like a car owner moaning about too many cars on the road, when infact they are adding to the congestion themselves.

It will slow when there are no longer profits to be made.  The system has and always will be supply and demand based.  Even though the curve looks exponential right now, I assure you, it will not last.  Many people were warning about the lack of profitability in ASIC miners, especially for those deeply buried on the wait list.

Look for those 10ghs blades to be sub $100 in the near future.


~BCX~

Of course, if the price keeps going up- dramatically going up, it might not be a problem for awhile yet. If asics can't be unloaded for a reasonable sum, people are likely to keep them going. Even if they sell them, someone will keep them going. I suspect.

sounds like quite complex issue and one we should keep an eye on  :o

While I knew we'd get here... I'm surprised at how soon, honestly.

Look at the pools these days... it is taking forever to mine a single block.

It seems to me, that if you are not currently in the game with a whole rack of ASICS... you won't want to commit.  The barrier to entry is just too damn high.

<SOMEONE MAKE THE APPROPRIATE IMAGE, PLS> :)

Yea, I'm kinda hoping to see it level out soon, but who knows we will have to wait and see how this all plays out

as long as the mining profits - power cost is positive the hobby will continue. If you want to run it as a business you have to keep buying the latest and greatest, the hardware companies are thankful, paper weight companies maybe in trouble.

There's no reason why an increase in difficulty should result in centralization of mining. Difficulty will stabilize when electricity costs becomes prohibitive relative to mining profit. When that happens, the only important metric will be hashes/watt, not absolute hashing power - in other words, only the most efficient will be in the game, not the most powerful. When we get to that point, we might even see difficulty fall back somewhat as less efficient 1st and 2nd generation ASICs become unprofitable to operate.

that's an interesting take on the issues, also I guess it has to do with how much better can we make these ASIC chips for mining