Bitcoin Forum

Based on my observation before some main event several thread about same topic occurs independently. Is here somebody who tried to measure them via key words or is it here some tool which could provide this?
 
At this moment it could be increase in price.

Process is the following:

Some even occurs  -> people react, the mood is created -> this mood create another event once it pass particular treshold.

I believe it's possible to predict that second event based on mood. (measured in key words for example)

Opinions?

i think it is:

event -> mood -> price change

i think you can predict the change in price based off the mood

Someone made a bot which buys or sells on certain buzzwords in the BTC-E Trollbox ^^
As far as I know it lost money (was only a small amount for fun though)

why would  you trade on just a troll box. i would do the mood of the form as a whole.

I've thought about it, but I don't think thymos would be too keen about a bot that reads every post.

why not? isn't that what google does?  :)

And Google uses this information to direct many people to the forums.  This would only help me and would be a nonnegligible burden on the servers.

Well, if it can do that reliably, they only need to flip the buy and sell commands  ;D .

i used the trollbox bot and lost 0.5 btc so yeah, flip it and it will work  :)

I think the mood is pretty bullish  ;D

agreed

you know what they say when everyone is bullish!  ;)

Yup but I don't think the bubble is about to burst anytime soon. There is not enough greed yet. When greed is long enough to make people taking stupid decisions, then we'll switch to fear and... pop!

i see lots of people talking about 4-figure and 5-figure bitcoin prices as if they will happen tomorrow or next week. no greed?  ::)

Yes but greed need to stand long enough to let people making risky and stupid decisions (like taking loans to buy bitcoin or putting all your life saving in it) then we’ll switch to fear. That’s why I don’t think we are there yet.

BTW which figure are you talking about?

Is the trollbox bot available somewhere with a link? Would love to look at it.

not sure if that post was serious LOL..... but i'd love to check it out too. link anyone?

How do you think that the process before event looks like?

Greed -> fear -> action   

There are more parts to this equation.

1. Greed
2. Fear
3. ???
4. Profit!

BTC-e.com (http://BTC-e.com)

But you are formally warned! There are a lot of idiots in there

I tend to buy when the mood on here is doom and gloom and hold when everyone is talking about how the price will never stop.

How can you say when is the former and when the latter? Which parts of the forum are you checking?

As a professional value trader I use a few tools such as the H&S miner to determine trend and sentiment