Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: uMMcQxCWELNzkt on October 24, 2013, 05:53:33 PM



Title: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: uMMcQxCWELNzkt on October 24, 2013, 05:53:33 PM
I would like to find out which of the two prices you think is most likely to happen (first) in the future. Obviously this is purely out of interest just to find out which of the two extremes the majority are leaning towards. Also please don't make up random prices like "I think it will reach $250,000 :D!", this is all about which you feel is most likely to happen first not what it could ultimately reach.

Two Options:
$10 per Bitcoin
$1000 per Bitcoin
$10,000 per Bitcoin


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: N12 on October 24, 2013, 05:54:14 PM
1k


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 24, 2013, 05:55:11 PM
One is a 400% gain. The other is a 95% lose.  So I'm going to go with $1,000, based on pure mathematics.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: adamstgBit on October 24, 2013, 05:56:05 PM
this question is too easy.

1,000$


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: Mike Christ on October 24, 2013, 05:56:17 PM
$10 for one Bitcoin is a signal of Bitcoin's death; I see no signs of this happening in the near future so $1000 is the way to go.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: Birdy on October 24, 2013, 05:56:48 PM
$1000


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: uMMcQxCWELNzkt on October 24, 2013, 05:58:23 PM
To be honest I thought $1000 might not be enough, I am going to make a sneaky edit and change the price to $10,000 otherwise we wont see much variation. Or perhaps I should make it £100,000?  :P


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 24, 2013, 06:00:06 PM
To be honest I thought $1000 might not be enough, I am going to make a sneaky edit and change the price to $10,000. I am sure some would like to see £100,000.  :P

You sneaky bastard.

I'd still say $10k, the high side.  If btc hits $1k, which is more likely than $10, it would seem extremely less probably it'd go back to $10 (or even $200-) at that point.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 24, 2013, 06:00:28 PM
Well $10 is a 20x loss, so you might want to compare it with a 20x gain: $4000.

I think $4000 is way more likely, like maybe 10 to 1 odds.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: uMMcQxCWELNzkt on October 24, 2013, 06:06:05 PM
To be honest I thought $1000 might not be enough, I am going to make a sneaky edit and change the price to $10,000. I am sure some would like to see £100,000.  :P

You sneaky bastard.

I'd still say $10k, the high side.  If btc hits $1k, which is more likely than $10, it would seem extremely less probably it'd go back to $10 (or even $200-) at that point.

I agree, I cannot see Bitcoin's price going below $50 from now on to be honest.

Well $10 is a 20x loss, so you might want to compare it with a 20x gain: $4000.

I think $4000 is way more likely, like maybe 10 to 1 odds.

I could but this question is not so much about the math, but rather if you feel Bitcoin will fail or succeed. Let's stick to 10k otherwise the thread will get confusing lol.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $1000 - What Say You?
Post by: adamstgBit on October 24, 2013, 06:09:30 PM
To be honest I thought $1000 might not be enough, I am going to make a sneaky edit and change the price to $10,000. I am sure some would like to see £100,000.  :P

You sneaky bastard.

I'd still say $10k, the high side.  If btc hits $1k, which is more likely than $10, it would seem extremely less probably it'd go back to $10 (or even $200-) at that point.

I agree, I cannot see Bitcoin's price going below $50 from now on to be honest.
why i miss read that...

IF the floor is tested i would assume its in the 90-70 range.




Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: bqxpd on October 24, 2013, 06:29:51 PM
$10K way more likely than $10, though maybe not this year...


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: BitChick on October 24, 2013, 06:39:29 PM
$10K way more likely than $10, though maybe not this year...

It is crazy to think that $10K is now more plausible than $10!  If that is true, and it probably is, we should all be buying coin up like crazy, even at $200. 

Wish I had more cash lying around.  I guess we all do. ;)


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: Ozymandias on October 24, 2013, 06:41:36 PM
10 vs 10,000 is actually a pretty difficult question to answer. 10 would represent failure while 10,000 is nearing the upper realistic limit (not to say that it can't go beyond a realistic limit, but if it did, I would spend a while pinching myself). I doubt that bitcoin the protocol will be broken in the short-mid future <3-5 years, and I know enough people who would [possibly literally] give up a limb to buy btc at $10.01 that it seems to me to be slightly more likely that $10k/btc would be visited first.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: cheech300 on October 24, 2013, 06:45:43 PM
1K! latest september 2014 8)


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: firstlast on October 24, 2013, 07:10:37 PM
$10,000 seems more likely. To see $10 something way more popular than bitcoin would have to be introduced and gradually adopted.

I don't see ripple or LTC catalyzing that change.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: Apraksin on October 24, 2013, 07:21:20 PM
10 k


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: wasserman99 on October 24, 2013, 07:36:56 PM
probably $10k, but that's a pretty wide range, probably a long time off from now


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: uMMcQxCWELNzkt on October 24, 2013, 07:41:49 PM
I do think it looks promising for Bitcoin, it would take a major catastrophe to knock it down to $10. Plus we would need an alternative as I doubt crypto would just die off, if it did hit $10 I don't feel there are any worthy alternatives yet.  I can imagine in a year or so we will being saying the same about $100 as an unlikely possibility.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: mccorvic on October 24, 2013, 08:06:13 PM
1k or 10k are much more likely than $10.

$10 (or less) will only happen if there is some major flaw discovered in the protocol.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: Melbustus on October 24, 2013, 08:52:44 PM
There's actually a significant difference between $1k and $10k. While I think it's true to state that if bitcoin is worth $100, it's worth $1000, going to $10k/btc does necessitate crossing some big use-case barriers.

At the full 21M coins, 1 BTC = $1000 means a market-cap of ~$21B. That's still a toy in terms of global influence. There are dozens of *individuals* with more wealth than that, and the M2 of small-ish countries is still larger than that. Which is the same situation as today; ie, 1 BTC = $200.

But go another order of magnitude up, and that changes. At $200B, bitcoin would be a major world currency, eclipsed by only a few national currencies, and a major store-of-value asset, comprising a double-digit percentage of gold's private investment demand equivalent. It really would have to be "grown up" to hit those marks. By contrast, the implied market cap of hitting $1000 is not that materially different from where bitcoin sits in terms of economic influence today.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: Qoheleth on October 25, 2013, 04:16:04 AM
At the moment, a sell of about 200kBTC would bring us back to $10/coin, if only momentarily. So to me, this question is really: "will we see $10k/coin before a Shamir user decides that they want out?"

To me, that's a bit of a toss-up. It's not clear that anyone in the 100kBTC club would want to cash out, but on the other hand, it's not clear that we'll ever see 10k$/coin, especially if other blockchains with new, interesting features get popular (a prospect that seems not that unlikely to me). I think, given all that, I favor the $10/coin scenario slightly over the $10k/coin scenario.

On the other hand, I think $1000 is quite a bit closer than $10.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: e4xit on October 25, 2013, 10:44:44 AM
At the moment, a sell of about 200kBTC would bring us back to $10/coin, if only momentarily. So to me, this question is really: "will we see $10k/coin before a Shamir user decides that they want out?"

I am interested to know what/who a "Shamir user" is, if you wouldn't mind elaborating for me. I know of the mathmatician Shamir and the outline of his work with ECC etc but have never seen this description "Shamir user" before.

Thanks

EDIT: $10,000 I woudl argue would be more likely than $10, although, a prohibition/outlawing of BTC in the USA might push the time taken to reach such a level quite a bit


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: evansearle42 on October 25, 2013, 10:52:55 AM
$1000 is the answer, but why did you do this $1000?


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: uMMcQxCWELNzkt on October 25, 2013, 11:08:24 AM
$1000 is the answer, but why did you do this $1000?

I edited $1000 to $10000 as it was evident $1000 was not enough to make people think twice.


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: Qoheleth on October 25, 2013, 03:58:27 PM
I am interested to know what/who a "Shamir user" is, if you wouldn't mind elaborating for me. I know of the mathmatician Shamir and the outline of his work with ECC etc but have never seen this description "Shamir user" before.
Shamir published a paper (http://eprint.iacr.org/2012/584.pdf) analyzing the flow of coins in the Bitcoin network as of May 2012. One of the interesting takeaways was that certain coins seem to be mined and then moved around between a closed set of addresses which never have commerce with the rest of the network - Shamir's conclusion was that these were likely owned by individuals who wanted to make it less obvious that they were sitting on huge bitcoin stashes. Based on this information, the paper puts together a list of 19 "interesting" users, which either do a lot of transactions, or hold a lot of coins, or both:
Entity IDNumber of AddressesAccumulated Incoming BTC'sNumber of Transactions
A78,2512,886,650246,012
B (Mt.Gox)156,7222,206,170477,526
C13,289941,01377,525
D12,520867,99648,347
E191692,8641,353
F12660,00023
G (Instawallet)23,649633,60692,593
H9580,00059
I10,561514,06649,550
J4500,0216
K134479,2541,039
L (Deepbit)2452,929814,044
M9442,00010
N128432,161137
O10432,28614
P1432,0783
Q14430,49023
R2,124321,866300,486
S1,03720,308197,334
The paper is a bone of contention around here; in particular, there's a number of people who hold that User A is a result of Shamir misinterpreting the data, and that the addresses (which the paper claims are controlled by one person moving their bitcoins around to make the coins look like they aren't hoarded) are in fact multiple people using BTC in the expected way. But even if you buy that, many of the later users on this list - cliques of a dozen cold storage addresses, containing hundreds of thousands of bitcoins - are much less likely to be misinterpretations.

These old-coin stockpilers, with the ability to single-handedly crash the BTC market, I've taken to referring to as "Shamir users".


Title: Re: $10 VS. $10,000 - What Say You?
Post by: wobber on October 25, 2013, 04:08:51 PM
I am interested to know what/who a "Shamir user" is, if you wouldn't mind elaborating for me. I know of the mathmatician Shamir and the outline of his work with ECC etc but have never seen this description "Shamir user" before.
Shamir published a paper (http://eprint.iacr.org/2012/584.pdf) analyzing the flow of coins in the Bitcoin network as of May 2012. One of the interesting takeaways was that certain coins seem to be mined and then moved around between a closed set of addresses which never have commerce with the rest of the network - Shamir's conclusion was that these were likely owned by individuals who wanted to make it less obvious that they were sitting on huge bitcoin stashes. Based on this information, the paper puts together a list of 19 "interesting" users, which either do a lot of transactions, or hold a lot of coins, or both:
Entity IDNumber of AddressesAccumulated Incoming BTC'sNumber of Transactions
A78,2512,886,650246,012
B (Mt.Gox)156,7222,206,170477,526
C13,289941,01377,525
D12,520867,99648,347
E191692,8641,353
F12660,00023
G (Instawallet)23,649633,60692,593
H9580,00059
I10,561514,06649,550
J4500,0216
K134479,2541,039
L (Deepbit)2452,929814,044
M9442,00010
N128432,161137
O10432,28614
P1432,0783
Q14430,49023
R2,124321,866300,486
S1,03720,308197,334
The paper is a bone of contention around here; in particular, there's a number of people who hold that User A is a result of Shamir misinterpreting the data, and that the addresses (which the paper claims are controlled by one person moving their bitcoins around to make the coins look like they aren't hoarded) are in fact multiple people using BTC in the expected way. But even if you buy that, many of the later users on this list - cliques of a dozen cold storage addresses, containing hundreds of thousands of bitcoins - are much less likely to be misinterpretations.

These old-coin stockpilers, with the ability to single-handedly crash the BTC market, I've taken to referring to as "Shamir users".

Interesting and pertinent argument. Thank you!