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Hello, got thinking what most of newbies are awaiting so eagerly right now... When the new bull run will begin and will it break current records?

Or more specifically what could trigger such viral bull run?

Could it be the single billionaire whale entering the market?
Could it be the fiat-to-crypto major exchange pairings?
Could it be the major company, such as TESLA or Facebook or Amazon introducing their own coin?
Could it be the some major company such as Ebay or Amazon accepting crypto payments?

What is your idea? what could push it?  ???

Good news coming in, BTC going up which fuels other altcoins and new 300m tether have been created, so we might see another run once they are utilised, let's not forget forces the forces of demand and supply where many people start buying, prices will shoot ATHs

I think it is difficult for a giant whale or an institution alone to launch a bull market. If it is a bear market now, it is the best time for institutions and giant whales to raise money at a low price. When all the giant whales and institutions end up. After that, they will use all means to show the phenomenon of the bull market, causing retail investors to influx in large quantities until the price of the currency reaches the price in their minds, and they will sell the tokens. When the giant whales and institutions sell, the next step is It will cause retail investors to panic and continue to sell, which will turn into a bear market. This cycle becomes a market law.

Usually, it's the halving that makes the bullrun kick which they call cycle every 4 years already. Since the beginning the halving is what always happens.
But the length of 4 years also makes the prices at its bottom. Billionaires and major companies come in because they know when is the right time to dive into the market and blogs make it appear like they are the ones pulling the market up to trigger the bull run. 

Maybe more countries adopting bitcoin like what El Salvador did could be the biggest trigger for another bull run and ATH. Although that's a wishful thinking on me because they might see adoption as a threat to their power like what China did.

1.Bitcoin or ETH Dapp is accepted by some major countries, and uses Bitcoin as legal currency.Just as the Internet took decades to create killer applications, so will blockchain applications.

2.There are more convenient channels for investors to influx，Whether it is a complex exchange or a cumbersome private key storage, these are obviously not easy for novices to enter the encryption field.

3.People lose trust in traditional investments，Just like the previous robinhood, it disappointed the players of traditional finance.

4.Bitcoin's next halving

This thread was started "pre-miracle", back when BTC was rolling down from its $19k+ ATH to $3k+, and the price on March 23, 2018 was around $8,800. So, now, after the miraculous $63k+ in April, it might seem that we could answer the question with certainty ... but can we, though? I mean, do we know exactly what triggered the latest bull run? Yeah, I know there were many factors, but what was the main one? I personally don't know the answer to this question.

I believe larger entities are very interested in bitcoin.  In addition to Tesla, SpaceX today is the meeting between Jack and Elon, I expect a great combination between them in promoting bitcoin perfection in mining.  There are also some rumors that Apple is also eyeing the bitcoin market.  At the earliest, I believe Tesla will continue to accept bitcoin, which is a big problem in the process of expanding bitcoin sync acceptance in the world.  I am bullish on bitcoin and maybe we will continue to go fast with our next big goals.

Probably a big purchase and endorsement of a big company could probably trigger the prices to increase. I think that's by far the biggest one that can happen so I don't necessarily think that it would be anything fancy.

Most of the price drop is also due to whales buying and many people selling at low prices, once the target is reached I think the price increase will start, because the good news about BTC is also weak. decide on that.

You mean whales are buying and Btc price is sinking. What kind of analogy is this?
The whales or should I say market movers are out already and they all waiting for the weak hand to dump their Sat so they can buy back at very low price. Who knows if they are responsible for the media manipulating bitcoin holders.
The thing is, if bitcoin dump today, it will be pumped back by the same people, that's how market works.

There is really rarely ever a "trigger" that happens, it is usually back to back stuff and people who believe it. When there are millions of people all around the world promoting something it becomes higher and higher in value, there is no way that we could diminish that into just a trigger, there is nothing like that. It is basically just a collective thing that we all do, you promote it on twitter, I do it on telegram the other talks to their friends and so forth and over a million people end up doing this which causes bitcoin to go up eventually.

Remember even when we moved from 10k to 64k it didn't happen overnight, so it wasn't just one thing that triggered it, from September/October levels to new years it went to just 30k, and after that until may it went to 60k, so it went 3x in 3 months and 2x in 4-5 months, it was quite slow when it happened and will be like that again.

No to all of those.  I don't exactly know what you mean by the first one, because there are tons of exchanges out there with fiat/crypto trading pairs, and that isn't a significant factor in bitcoin's price as far as I'm aware.  As for the second one, corporate tokens aren't likely to make it to market.  Remember Libra?  Whatever happened to that?  And even if Facebook had managed to introduce it, I seriously doubt it'd kick off another bull run.  And on the third, companies accepting bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency isn't anything new, and people aren't clamoring to spend their bitcoin at places like Amazon.  If they are, there are ways to do it already.

A single one?  That's a possibility, but they'd have to buy a ton of bitcoin on the open market without regard to the price increasing as they made the purchase(s).  If the hypothetical billionaire were smart, they'd do that without moving the market at all, and so there would be no bull run ensuing. 

I don't understand what drives demand for bitcoin or what starts these crazy bull markets it finds itself in every few years, and I only wish I knew what would start the next one.  I'm not even sure if anyone knows what caused the previous bull runs, because if I recall correctly, there wasn't anything besides the halvings to account for them.  Your guess is as good as mine.

I think a really big purchase like what Tesla did could be a really big reason to trigger another bull run. I mean the reason for a bull run is simple, more demand and less supply right?

Although Musk contributed to the last bull run, I don't think he was the trigger. The bull run started well before that.
At the end of November, Bitcoin broke the $20,000 mark, and its price has increased throughout December and into the new year. There was no news about Tesla's bitcoin holdings before this happened.

A major hype should be established. There are many factors affecting the bullishness of market but one big company could somehow start it. Like tesla's announcement of accepting BTC and more institutions adopt to it.
Another thing is halving of mining BTC, it occurs every 4 years and it really helps the scarcity of Bitcoin and eventually helps its price to go up.

Really? 1.5 billion USD worth of bitcoin purchase didn't contribute big to the trigger of the start of the bull run? Also, I am just giving that as an example and I am talking generally about the possibility that another company might do a big purchase like what Tesla did.

It helps of course. It's not the 1.5B that will make the bullrun, its the fact that someone is popular that makes investors think it's worth jumping into the market. 1.5B is too small to make the price rocket up to $65K. Everybody is jumping which we have already read the news about the financial institutions.

Surprising to have read some articles lately that Amazon is seeks new exec to oversee digital currency strategy.  (https://cointelegraph.com/news/amazon-seeks-new-exec-to-oversee-digital-currency-strategy) Amazon is the biggest e-commerce, it should be more than what Musk could influence.

I don't think one whale will be able to create big waves in the ocean. there must be several whales jumping simultaneously for big waves to be created. So one whale won't cause big changes in the market. You can't go on and on and on telling those who are selling at low prices are causing prices to drop because they are also looking for the biggest profit when prices have gone up.

only few people will sell his coins at a lower price so it was not them that is making the price fall but it was also the whale because they arent making small transactions and whales ensures that the value is good before they sell .
 @op  all of those that you said can trigger a bull run but there are others that you forgot to add . a good news can be one of it , ex. if theres a country that  legalize the use of btc .

Of course it did. If you can tell me exactly when that $ 1.5 billion worth of bitcoin was purchased, I'll tell you how much of an impact it had on the price of bitcoin.  :D

While I agree that Tesla's investment intensified the bull run over the first quarter of 2021, it definitely did not start it.
Tesla is estimated to hold about 50,000 BTC. For comparison, here is a brief overview of MicroStrategy's investment:
reference - theasianbanker.com (https://www.theasianbanker.com/updates-and-articles/top-10-public-companies-that-hold-the-most-bitcoin-collectively-own-over-191,000-bitcoins)

It did contribute to the past bull  run since those purchase create FOMO to Musk  followers and to others who doubt to buy at that time, We see how Musk influenced  works to  the people so long bull run days are extended   for long days but after fud it the price starting to collapsed so for this If we want  to see a bull  run   we need another influential person to enter and express his  support to crypto and do some beneficial things that can help bitcoin to pump up maybe from that we can see the  bull run to smash up.

Well, what we need is some countries making some positive announcements that they will accept Bitcoin as a "Currency" and not just allow it to be a "Commodity" ..... We saw what happened in China when they started to ban Bitcoin mining.... now imagine if they said that they will allow Bitcoin as a payment/currency.  ;)

The acceptance of Bitcoin as a currency will have a trigger action on large Merchants... because they base their decisions on what the government regulations stipulate. (Some are using a backdoor method... by accepting Crypto through payment processors)

All we need is just some news from authoritative people and big companies or funds that they are going to invest in Bitcoin. This way, the price will increase because of the big money of whales and because people will buy it, seeing the green market then.
Another thing that can green up our market  is making work with crypto more comfortable and understandable so that all people can work with them.

It's happening, new people are getting in, new companies... countries are creating regulations, Bitocin is getting more popular definitely! What will trigger a new bull run is hard to say, I think too many things are going on, and definitely big things are coming, from which side, we will see! I
I am positive about the future of Bitcoin, maybe more than ever before! Many positive things are happening around, many experts are thinking that we are at the bottom, so this new bottom is higher, and it will be a great ground for all future uptrends!

Progressive adoption at this point does not need any further catalysts (the name usually given to those events that make everyone realise the value of an asset). It is much more about progressive adoption at this point since I believe that the value, as of now and for bitcoin, is well assessed. The next likely event that may drive crypto could potentially be any announcement by any of the large techs, but it can sumply be anything once the level of demand is there. I am tired of stupid justifications for bitcoin price movements, most of the times they do not correspond to a single event.

So far only a 4 year cycle that looks right can trigger a bull run until the price reaches a new ATH. The halving that has occurred so far is the thing that has the most impact on the entry of new investors and causes price increases. Apart from the halving, I think the hard fork is another event that can trigger the price as far as I know, but in the end I think it will be very difficult to find more detail that can trigger a definite price increase.

I just think that the more bitcoin adoption is legalized by a country's government as legal tender, the less volatility there will be in the bitcoin price. Bitcoin price will increase due to adoption, I think it's true but so far the price increase is due to FOMO where there is a surge in demand in the market just to make a profit.

In theory, it is very simple: the supply of Bitcoin must be lower than the demand. There would continuously be a higher price per Bitcoin. There will never be an absolute shortage because Bitcoin can always be corrected based on the price. As a result, there would be fewer whole Bitcoin in circulation every day, which should not be negativ, since there are enough places after the decimal point.

So positive news can increase the demand, more money by investors or investors just as.

Exactly! Good to see someone has mentioned it. All of the biggest bull runs were triggered by halving, why do people always miss that part? It’s always the same: halving -> price increases -> talks on the media + growth of interest among investors, the extent of which is bigger each year -> even more increase -> newbies buying high  :D

There’s not an event that can trigger a similar chain without previous halving.

It's hard to say what can trigger a new bull run now. I'd say that words and actions of people like Elon Musk would be really affective. But it looks like he doesn't have an influence over the market as much as before. Let's wait and see the new things to come.

Actually the market is whole green now but I'm not sure if it's related to the meeting between Jack and Elon.

My own suggestion I think the only way the bull run can continue is when the FUD in the market is reduced, and more big investors comes and also good news like big companies like tesla accepting bitcoin. These are the things which can really push the price of bitcoin back up, we all know what caused the FUD, the pressure was much, China was creating FUD and same time Elon Musk was also doing same so this contributed to what caused the down trend.

1. depending on how much funds are invested. if it's just a few million dollars it won't make the market move.
2. not really.
3. is it really a crypto?. if it's a mainstream company, I doubt it will be fully decentralized. and the coin is sure to be fully bound by the regulations in which the company stands. and it is difficult to enter the crypto market. so this option will be a lot of hindrance.
4. This rumor has been around for years and probably everyone is tired of hearing it.

what if big countries like America or countries in europe start to legalize bitcoin completely. like El Salvador which started to adopt bitcoin. this is probably going to be big news and could get the market in pumps.

No such thing about being reduced because Fuds could just pop out unexpectedly and there's no way of stopping that  because those supporters or institutions are the ones would really create those things

for them to crash out the market and able to buyback on cheaper price and starts to hype it up for them to make profits and repeat the cycle.A very common  manipulative behavior which it isnt surprising

for this kind of market where big players would always have the advantage.Triggering bull run its a mix of adoption and some hype which is the truth.

I would ask two questions to everyone who posted in this thread:

1. Are you aware that you are answering the question that was asked in 2018?
2. Does it make sense to discuss a new bull run, and we are currently in one of them?

For those who think the bull run is a steady rise in price without corrections, one little reminder from 2017 - do you see anything that reminds you of this year?

https://i.imgur.com/ZZO7WsP.jpg

There is a rumour that Amazon is going to accept Crypto as payments due to their job advert for a  “digital currency and blockchain product lead” for the platform’s payments team.

This could be the catalyst that brings it into the $40k's, but will need something like an ETF confirmation to bring it into 6 figures. I think something like the Wisdom Tree ETF will take it above 100K

I could have thought a pandemic like the covid-19 virus would leave Bitcoin price bartered and bruised, but as many commodity fell sick to the virus bitcoin had some immunity, the next bull run or bear run can be ignited the opposite way than you think, but I think if countries help or follow the path of El salvador, then a bull run might happen, I don't think one whale can ignite/trigger a bull run, even the low-humble bitcoin investors combine can be the bull run, bitcoin acceptance also.

Elon musk already entered the crypto market and recently manipulated it through tweets.  ::)
I think this is one of the possible that will make crypto trigger another ATH but of course, it won't happen.
Facebook already made a coin last time, it's called Libra but now diem. Idk if TESLA will create their own coin, the only thing I'm sure is they will use DOGE :)
Yeah, possible too but it will take a lot of time before it happens, I've noticed that only few major platforms that are accepting crypto so it will take more time for Amazon and Ebay if the majority is still not accepting.

I think only another halving would trigger us towards a new all time high. I think just like what has happened since past two bull runs, the lack of new minting supply due to halving would trigger a demand supply deficit leading to another Bull run and All time high. But for this to happen be ready to wait for another couple of years atleast. I don't think Tesla or anyone accepting bitcoin would trigger such a huge pump in the market to break all time highs.

Yes, Tesla and other corporate firms adoption of bitcoin will trigger the market to turn bullish. This won't take the price mark a new ATH. The people's interest on cryptocurrency have been increasing regularly, which makes it have gradual growth.

The adoption from companies and stores all around will make the growth happen faster. When it comes to a large scale market trigger, something needs to happen as the past when Japan mentioned bitcoin to be official and supported stores to accept bitcoin. Those are days when people aren't much aware of bitcoin.

I believe all of the reasons that OP stated on the original post are valid, it had certain impacts on the market big or small we can't deny it. Remember when Musk denied Bitcoin payments due to high fossil fuel usage for making transactions in the network, what damn reason and his company are burning way too much to produce his cars. Well the truth is the market was struck and got to where it is now. The current trends and global occurrences like wars etc are also factors, pandemic and other natural phenomenon. So much to add but the reason can also be unknown at certain times and people just go with the flow.

I honestly think that the 1.5 billion dollars from Tesla itself wasn't a big deal, the news of it however was a big deal. People do not understand the difference of it, and I tried to explain it many times but most people ignore it. When a company wants to buy a huge sums of bitcoin they usually end up doing it over the counter, all those coinbase and binance like companies make so much bitcoin that they can't sell it all because it would destroy the market price and make it go down a lot, so they hold it until they find a big deal and when companies like Tesla end up saying they want to buy 1.5 billion dollars worth, those companies do a OTC deal to make it happen from the market price give or take, and that means it doesn't change the price at all since it doesn't happen inside the market, it happens over the counter.

However, the hype created around the news of it causes it to get so much attention inside the market that people keep on buying and buying and increasing the price.

MTE. Just look at  my post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3186136.msg57517201#msg57517201) above! :) I was kinda hoping that someone had the answers regarding the previous bull run, tbh, but, apparently, although it was interesting to read some theories here, no exact answers were given.

Yet I still think that although we can't be 100% right about anything where humans involved, because of the human factor, we can be pretty close, because today scientists are saying that that "Human behavior is 93 percent predictable" (https://cos.northeastern.edu/news/human-behavior-is-93-predictable-research-shows/). I mean, if we can predict whereabouts of the "spontaneous" humans, maybe we can predict their investment behavior too? To a certain degree, of course, but it's possible.

I always thought that the latest bull run was due to a mixture of these three factors:
reduced supply after halvng,
the emergence of institutional investors,
and a general positive sentiment toward cryptocurrencies.

Its always been like that since those are main factors which we can presume the main reason of such pump or rally which its even with that basic economics class talking about supply and demand. 8)

Also with those unexpected Fuds and Shills which is highly reactive when it comes to those things and this is what makes even more harder to predict on where price could possibly go.

Thing here is that you do know on how to ride and make benefit or profit out of those movements just like as always.

The law of damand states that the Higher the demand the higher the price of the commodity, what can possibly push the price of bitcoin back up is whales accumulating at this dip. If the rate of buys increase prices will moon and also the market works with the news of happenings in the crypto world, if there is good news there will be a higher demand and price will moon but if there is a bad news people will start selling off which will now make prices to drop low.

I was assuming they were after making their own blockchain system and not accept crypto. I do not of course know what they are going to do, I have zero clue and I am sure even 99% of all the amazon workers do not know what is going to happen neither, only the people at the top. However, considering the technology blockchain brings and what kind of business amazon doing I feel like it could help them a ton.

Think about all those data that goes through amazon actually being on blockchain and distributed p2p? That would make sure that they are running on all cylinders every single second without any down moment ever, even amazon servers sometimes goes down and they are known to be the best out there, so blockchain helping them out could be something they could test out, not too much but maybe like in a small scale at first and see how it goes? I am just spit balling here of course.

The news about amazon possibly starting to accept bitcoin as a payment and their silence to deny the news, has made people think about if it is going to be happening and made a lot of investors go into it, because i am sure if big companies start accepting other will do the same and we will see more and more of the crypto industry developing and we will see bitcoin reaching some high prices.

For now as the market is going I see that many influencers are beginning to contribute, in the case of Elon Musk spoke well of BTC and has caused a good impact on BTC, however it is likely that events such as possible definitive vaccines for Covid-19 or Possible announcements by rulers to adopt BTC can be of great help to BTC.
Since El Salvador began with the adoption of BTC, then Paraguay and after seeing the delegation of El Salvador in the Olympics with the announcement of BTC, things have started to improve, for now I see these small details that do make a difference. It is necessary to emphasize that for now Elon Musk is trying to regain his influence or that his followers trust him again.

Wow! When the OP created this thread 3 years ago, at that time, the btc price was only at about $9k level and look at what we have now. Even if there is correction happening, we somehow achieved again the $40k level. If he bought some btc and hold that long, his stash is now more than fourfold.


They are denying right now but I believe, the plans of accepting crypto maybe in the pipeline. Someone just leaked it early so they are denying it. Once they actually announce about btc acceptance, I guess, this will create positive boost in the market.

For sure thses thing might offer some relevance to the topic but then, I really wish, it ain't about these things, these companies or the whales that comes to determine which way the market would go at certain point in time. Its Achnasheen in era that is gradually becoming so real that I ain't comfortable with.  Before hand, the market has been moving on its own and the major constraints to these movements where not exactly pinned down to be related to some big company or investors or whatever but know, it seems, crypto investors has so handed the market into the hands of the whales that they feel, they could manipulate the market which ever time they want. They don't limit there options to fake news in order to make this happen and isn't cool. We ought to take this influence back from them else, it would just be the ways making profits off us at every point in time.

News about regulation and about big companies will adapt or support bitcoin seems to have a very good impact on the price of bitcoin. now bitcoin depends on adaptation of many parties. like a few days ago about amazon . even though it has been claimed that it is fake news, the market has a positive impact on it. imagine if it's true. surely the price of bitcoin now will continue rising.

I've looked at the date when OP has made this thread and no one replied for that year what will trigger the next bull run. And here we go, looks like some of his question did came into reality but with a bit of modification.

Like about Tesla and Amazon, these two were the reasons why we're up a bit lately but eventually the rumor about Amazon was also verified that it wasn't true.

And with his first question about a single billionaire, I guess that it could be portray by Elon Musk.

I think big companies like amazon when they will start accepting bitcoin could start bull Run in cryptocurrency market because Amazon has large users from all over the world when people buy bitcoin the demand of bitcoin will rise exponentially then we can see huge money in cryptocurrency Market.

IMO, the next bull run won't be solely dependent on any one event. There will be multiple events, occurring near simultaneously. This can be recognition as legal tender by multiple countries, eCommerce giants like Amazon/Ebay accepting BTC or sovereign countries adding Bitcoin to their forex reserves. My medium-term (2-3 years) forecast is $250,000 per coin, and in order to reach there we need multiple triggers. The challenges remain at the same time, and one thing that bothers me is the increased hostility from the Biden administration after Democrats won the POTUS elections in 2020.

In order for good news for cryptocurrency to work properly, in addition to the content of this news, the time when such news appears is also important. In my opinion, in these summer months, almost any good news cannot give the same impetus for price growth that the same news could have provided in November-December. Therefore, good news now can raise the price of the cryptocurrency, however, it is unlikely to lead to large sustainable growth with the achievement of new price records. I am still calmly awaiting the second half of autumn. This is always a good time for cryptocurrency.

A positive news that can reach other countries is going to be the biggest reason for a possible bull run and ATH, something like what Tesla announced of their purchase of bitcoin worth 1.5 billion dollars, a similar news like that can possibly cause another uptrend.

Yeah, they are denying, but it looks like people don't believe them much. :) OR, maybe Martin Leo Rivers, the author of the article in Forbes called "Bitcoin Didn’t Care About Tesla, And It Doesn’t Care About Amazon Either" (https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrivers/2021/07/27/bitcoin-didnt-care-about-tesla-and-it-doesnt-care-about-amazon-either/?sh=12800eaa13b8) is right saying that "bitcoin’s price swings are largely influenced by technical indicators–patterns and trends on charts–as opposed to fundamental events"? Of course "largely" doesn't mean "solely", and the author himself admits that significant, credible news do impact bitcoin’s short-term price, but I'm still wondering is he right about "largely"?

it's true that halving always kicks in and it's very significant if you look that way, but apart from halving actually if we look closely there are several supporting factors such as the entry of a company or a developer that makes pumps so that btc can also rise drastically, just a few examples last month where musk claimed to buy $1.5B Btc which made a drastic spike because apart from the adoption of course the supporters of musk did the same thing so that it made a spike to the new ath

Not as easy as you think. Though there are few business men and big companies accepting Bitcoin, but there were also those who's trying to manipulate Bitcoin's price by creating FUD and not accepting Bitcoin as a means of payment.
Best example is Elon. That man's inconsistency towards Bitcoin is a clear sign of manipulation.
However, we're still optimistic about Bitcoin's global adoption, especially merchants accepting Bitcoin.

Honestly it is going to be something that makes EVERYONE buy bitcoin, it is always like that, I do not know the cause and how it happens but I know that it is going to be something like that for sure. I get that we should not be rooting for the price to fall down more, but I am also not rooting it to go up more neither right now, I rather keep it these levels for a little while longer so I could end up with making a good profit by accumulating more during these periods.

I see that the price is going up right now and that is why people are very happy about it, but just because it is going up right now doesn't mean that it will keep going up forever, maybe it will get stuck under 40k again and not go above that, if that happens it will be great for me because I will just end up buying more and then when it goes up I will profit more. It will go up one way or another anyway, doesn't matter how it happens.

the more who buy it the higher the price, but to be globally adopted I think it takes some good news, so that it gets people to buy it all at once. on the one hand there are giant buyers who are ready to blow the price up, so a bullrun occurs