Bitcoin Forum

A whopping 46% raise, only before the first rally to $30 I can find such large jump in difficulty :-\

Win some lose some!

Do people speculate that this affects the price somehow?

It affects supply and demand...ie price.

So... up into a 2011 style bubble?

Good news for bitcoin network security. Bad news for individual miners.

Why doesn't DIFFICULTY affects price? Any TL;DR?

And this is why mining is felling more and more like jumping into quicksand.

I believe difficulty affects price, the harder it is to get the BTC the more valuable BTC is for me

What the heck does tl;dr mean?

Too long;
didn't read.

Thanks

I never did understand text speak...... :D

And yeah, the diff is a real bummer eh?

I thought difficulty was limited to +/- 40% per jump...

It can increase or decrease by as much as a factor of four.

not 40% but rather 400% up or down.

300% up or 75% down  :D

Supply remains the same regardless of changes in difficulty.   New production remains the same regardless of difficulty.

Now price does affect supply.  When price goes up miners profits (in USD) increase and their electrical costs denominated in BTC decrease.  This fuels more hardware purchases and difficulty rises.  If prices falls then marginal miners (least efficient gear and higher energy cost) get squeezed and eventually turn off rigs so difficulty declines until price rises enough that they are profitable again .... and the cycle goes on.

Because miners and investor are two different categories. Although difficulty does correlated somehow. Like the difficulty is too high I might as well buy BTC :)

The real hike is coming when they ship 2 THs ASIC

When this will happen?

It would be 10 TH/s ASIC after that, the technology just keep getting better :)

Probably not.  We will be at 28nm a while.  ASIC Miners didn't get better faster due to Moore's law it simply was designers "jumping ahead" to smaller processing nodes.  28nm is as economical as it gets in 2013/2014.   It will be a while before 22/20nm is cost effective.

At 28nm it looks like from three different vendors you are looking at ~0.7J /GH at the wall.  So 2 TH/s is probably around 1400W.  US 15A outlet is rated for 1440W continual load.  Now you may say in Nowhereistan the standard outlet is 240V, 33.8A but mining is perfectly parallel.  It makes little sense to sell a 2 TH/s and 4 TH/s unit you can just sell 2 TH/s units and sell some people 1 and other people 2. 

 

I think there will continue to be large difficulty jumps, not because of more efficient asics, but because existing 28nm chips will get lowered in price by a lot. The huge cost of making these chips is upfront. Actually producing the chip is quite cheap comparatively. While these asics will be the most effective for a while, the hardware companies will try to milk it for all its worth by slowly lowering its price. This means all of a sudden there are a ton more people purchasing. Finally when a more efficient asic comes out I expect the 28 nm ones to be producing only marginally more Bitcoin than their electricity cost.

Sad to see that big drop in BTC production. 100 GH/S really is the entry point these days. 1 BTC per day is like 1200 GH/s.

To be honest, it's not as bad as I thought it might be.

If you follow the trends of the network, a 45-50% jump in hashrate and difficulty was to be expected, but if the size of the network grows this much, the drop in revenue wasn't as much as I thought it would be.


I've been mining with my new Jupiter for a week now. Performance has been fluctuating 480-550 Gh/s over the past week, with daily take varying 0.81-1.1 BTC per 24h (average 1.0 per day) -- depending on performance, pool luck (BTC guild) etc.

I expected a 50% rise to mean a 30-35% drop in revenue down to about 0.6-0.7 BTC per day, but it's been better than that. Even though the the network jumped as much as it did, the daily take on the Jupiter is still 0.75-0.85.

But it's perception of the increase in mining gear prices and Hash that has an indirect effect on prices that drives up the value.  Most small time miners will mine when prices drop to 5 dollars.  I think it's actually the big miners that stop...since they care about profitability.  I think there are a lot of people that mine as a hobby. Not saying you're wrong...your economics sounds pretty impressive...just that there is an effect on increase/decrease difficulty. 

man when they launch new ASICs the difficultiy will increase faster and faster!

100%, which incur few month from now..

Your revenue is based on difficulty.  Until difficulty adjusts of course you will make the same revenue.  If difficulty adjusts up 50% then you will make 1/1.50 = 66% of what you were making before.

100 GH/S is meaningless as an "entry point" figure.

I know, that's what I was expecting, but it turned out better than that. It could be pool luck, but it was 0.9-1.0 btc per day average in the past week, and I expected it to drop to 0.65 -- but it's been better than that, to my surprise  0.75-0.85 per day.

Luck, improved firmware, you rig was underperforming on the prior difficulty period.  In the long run your reward for a given amount of hashpower is 1:1 inversely tied to difficulty.

i dont see it is profitable to buy any ASIC miners now, only if u have free power suply

Even if you have free power you may be tempted to do something more profitable with it than mining. Not getting payment for electricity isn't funny.

I think if you make the hardware, then it's profitable =) Wish I knew how to make it!

I think mining is the most profitable for free electricity, maybe baking cakes too...

The way things are now, buying a miner will be a loss even with free electricity and no miner wear whatsoever. Difficulty grows exponentially and the profit from a miner will never reach the cost of the miner.

Wait until the difficulty increase to a level where electricity is the main problem. Buying 2TH/s with free electricity might be the clear winner...

If you have free electricity, don't go for ASIC. Go for primecoin..

or other alts

What's a primecoin?  Must be a newer alt coin.

Quite new but it is among the biggest already...

Buy up all 2nd hand GPU and mine the hell out of all Alt would be better...

What is the symbol for primecoin ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primecoin you can find everything here...

XPM

buy up 2nd hand and when they broke you dont have warranty

That's the reason why they are cheaper, just don't over clock too much and temperature below 70c would be great

 
not agree with you.
IF you pay 250$ for new GPU, you have warranty if it brokes
IF you pay 150$ for used GPU, if it brokes you loose all your money.

If it is OC edition why the hell you shouldnt clock it?!
Oh wait it is used and you get 450 Mhs instead of 650

where is logic

It depends on how much of a discount you get and how likely the risk of failure was.

When new HD 6990s were >$700 I bought 40 used 5970s for $250 to $400 ea.  2 were DOA which I disputed w/ ebay and returned for refund.  Of the other 38, two of them died over the next 18 months of mining.  I probably saved >$10,000 compared to new.

Just a year ago having a 5Gh/s setup was pimp now it's ghetto.

woohoo, so you still have like 36 left as of today?

Do you have now 36 card or you stopped minningh now

I stopped last summer and parted it out. Was fun while it lasted but I saw the ASICs on the horizon.  Just pointing out that buying used isn't always bad.  Some people can't deal with out of warranty failure and if you are buying one GPU it might not be worth the hassle but if you buy a lot and intend to drive them hard anyways it can be worth it.

Wow nice... why not mine alt with it..?

and now we will have new difficulty jump

The jump is surprisingly low this time.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   510,929,738
Estimated Next Difficulty:   602,706,748 (+17.96%)

Just 18%...

I believe it should be better to do GPU mining on Litecoin right?

After this difficulty jump, hash fast is going to deliver at least 500 TH/s of machines... now guess the difficulty jump ....

KNC will be delivering ~ 2 PH/s in Nov as well.  Cointerra still says on track for Dec for 2 PH/s (although I honestly think that will slip to Jan but still that is another 2 PH/s in either Dec or Jan). 

We are in a lull before the storm. 

Oh man, this is not good. What if they all deliver at the same time we could see 100% difficulty hike....

Another hike coming in 50 minute

Bitcoin Difficulty:   510,929,738
Estimated Next Difficulty:   608,655,757 (+19.13%)
Adjust time:   After 7 Blocks, About 54.4 minutes

Looks like the difficulty has slowed down to 19%, is this a good sign?

You guys are talking just about difficulty jump, WHAT is about price jump?!?!?!


Price jumped 350% in 3 weeks, what will hapen from now on

Price may fall down highly and thousands of miners become bankrupt.
Of course speculators become bankrupt too ..... but it is a pity for the miners.

You should wait for another difficulty jump  :)

The difficulty is insane recently. I've seen 30% increases regularly.

The largest % raise in history was on July 13, 2010 when the difficulty rose from 45 to 182 (+304.44%)

The highest diif change was this October and was because of Knc first batch.
You can the historical diff jumps here http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (scroll down)