Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone,

It has been a few months that I am reading and tracking BitCoin. I have been researching and analyzing trends. Many people and investors are speculating that BitCoin price in the future will be very high. However, I don't see how this can happen. Here's my theory:

Profits depend on:
1- you processors hash rate
2- Difficulty
3- Bitcoins per block
4- BitCoin Price
5- hardware cost
6- electricity consumption[/b]

Now, difficulty is increasing alot, meaning harder to mine, meaning less profits. Some of you would argue that companies are producing bigger processors so the difficulty increase evens up with the new speed of hardware processors we can get . I told you that i have been analyzing all the trends related to BitCoin (I can tell you I am pretty good with analysis. I have an MBA and a degree in Economics and Math). The ROI is decreasing a lot with this difficulty increase. The ROI is not only decreasing, but decreasing at an increasing rate. All BitCoin miners can realize that even if they are mining with more than 600 Ghash/s. Now of course most of you guys are looking for a long term investment with BitCoin, so you are saving some, if not all, of your BitCoins for the future, hoping that the price will increase.
This paragraph concludes that components 1- and 2- of profits lead to a diminishing ROI (ROI decreasing at an increasing rate).

Did any of you think of what might happen in 2017 and later on? In 2017, BitCoin per block will be halved to 12.5, meaning that revenues are also halved, meaning that ROI will decrease even more. In 2021, BTC per block is also halved, meaning ROI decreasing, and so on...

So, now components 1- 2- and 3- of profits, which are part of the revenues will diminish with time, leading to very low revenues. What I'm trying to say is that one day, unless the price of BitCoin becomes really really high, we won't be able to cover electricity and hardware costs. Leading to negative profits, and mining becomes useless.

so, if there is no ROI, demand for BitCoin will decrease. Since the Price of BitCoin depends ONLY (emphasis on 'only') on the demand for BitCoin, the Price of BitCoin will decrease, and reach a stage where there is no demand, and the currency will collapse.

Please comment and tell me what you think. Also, if you can, give me a scenario where you see the demand for BitCoin increasing.

Thank you for your time.

Add to your analysis how Bitcoin is usefull as a method of payment. Customer can buy product anywhere in the wold and dont worry about foreign exchange fees between his local currency and USD.

Not to mention about speed and minimal fees. Moving money worldwide is tough, but not with Bitcoin

I get what you mean. However, if companies don't accept BTC payments then BTC is useless and demand can only increase based on mining profitability. So what you're saying about BTC (cheap, fast, easy) only works if companies start accepting BTC. Do you know what companies already accept BTC as payment?

Quite a few:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

But we still waiting for the biggest ones  ;)

I think it will get more and more expensive to buy BTC. The less there are the more expensive. That's my opinion.

+1
I totally agree!