Title: Let's talk volume. Post by: cryptocrusher on March 28, 2018, 06:57:45 PM One thing I've constantly seen being said is that bitcoin volume is significantly lower than it was in the run up to and at its peak in December. While looking at the USD/BTC chart I noticed an interesting thing and that is how relatively the volume isn't changed all that much. By that I mean:
Dec 17th high: $20,035 Volume: 14,916,600,000 that means approximately 745,000 bitcoin changed hands on that date. Yesterday, March 27th: $7979 Volume: 5,480,430,000 approximately 687,000 bitcoin changed hands. From that we can see that volume is only down about 10% in terms of actual bitcoin traded. I'm not entirely sure how to interpret this, just perhaps to ignore some of the stories stating how bitcoin volume is so low, because all of them are measuring that volume in USD not in BTC. Be interested to hear any opinions on what this could mean for the market. All data was taken from coinmarketcap. Date Close Volume Bitcoin volume Dec 17, 2017 19,140.80 13,314,600,000 695613.5585 Dec 18, 2017 19,114.20 14,839,500,000 776359.9837 Dec 19, 2017 17,776.70 16,894,500,000 950373.2414 Dec 20, 2017 16,624.60 22,149,700,000 1332344.838 Dec 21, 2017 15,802.90 16,516,600,000 1045162.597 Dec 22, 2017 13,831.80 22,198,000,000 1604852.586 Dec 23, 2017 14,699.20 13,086,000,000 890252.5307 Dec 24, 2017 13,925.80 11,572,300,000 830997.142 Dec 25, 2017 14,026.60 10,664,700,000 760319.6783 Dec 26, 2017 16,099.80 13,454,300,000 835681.1886 Dec 27, 2017 15,838.50 12,487,600,000 788433.2481 Dec 28, 2017 14,606.50 12,336,500,000 844589.7374 Dec 29, 2017 14,656.20 13,025,500,000 888736.5074 Dec 30, 2017 12,952.20 14,452,600,000 1115841.324 Dec 31, 2017 14,156.40 12,136,300,000 857301.2913 Jan 01, 2018 13,657.20 10,291,200,000 753536.5961 Jan 02, 2018 14,982.10 16,846,600,000 1124448.509 Jan 03, 2018 15,201.00 16,871,900,000 1109920.4 Jan 04, 2018 15,599.20 21,783,200,000 1396430.586 Jan 05, 2018 17,429.50 23,840,900,000 1367847.615 Jan 06, 2018 17,527.00 18,314,600,000 1044936.384 Jan 07, 2018 16,477.60 15,866,000,000 962882.9441 Jan 08, 2018 15,170.10 18,413,900,000 1213828.518 Jan 09, 2018 14,595.40 16,660,000,000 1141455.527 Jan 10, 2018 14,973.30 18,500,800,000 1235586.01 Jan 11, 2018 13,405.80 16,534,100,000 1233354.22 Jan 12, 2018 13,980.60 12,065,700,000 863031.6295 Jan 13, 2018 14,360.20 12,763,600,000 888817.7045 Jan 14, 2018 13,772.00 11,084,100,000 804828.6378 Jan 15, 2018 13,819.80 12,750,800,000 922647.2163 Jan 16, 2018 11,490.50 18,853,800,000 1640816.327 Jan 17, 2018 11,188.60 18,830,600,000 1683016.642 Jan 18, 2018 11,474.90 15,020,400,000 1308978.727 Jan 19, 2018 11,607.40 10,740,400,000 925306.2701 Jan 20, 2018 12,899.20 11,801,700,000 914917.2042 Jan 21, 2018 11,600.10 9,935,180,000 856473.6511 Jan 22, 2018 10,931.40 10,537,400,000 963957.0412 Jan 23, 2018 10,868.40 9,660,610,000 888871.407 Jan 24, 2018 11,359.40 9,940,990,000 875133.3697 Jan 25, 2018 11,259.40 8,873,170,000 788067.7478 Jan 26, 2018 11,171.40 9,746,200,000 872424.2261 Jan 27, 2018 11,440.70 7,583,270,000 662832.6938 Jan 28, 2018 11,786.30 8,350,360,000 708480.1846 Jan 29, 2018 11,296.40 7,107,360,000 629170.3552 Jan 30, 2018 10,106.30 8,637,860,000 854700.5333 Jan 31, 2018 10,221.10 8,041,160,000 786721.5857 Feb 01, 2018 9,170.54 9,959,400,000 1086021.107 Feb 02, 2018 8,830.75 12,726,900,000 1441202.616 Feb 03, 2018 9,174.91 7,263,790,000 791701.499 Feb 04, 2018 8,277.01 7,073,550,000 854602.0846 Feb 05, 2018 6,955.27 9,285,290,000 1335000.654 Feb 06, 2018 7,754.00 13,999,800,000 1805493.939 Feb 07, 2018 7,621.30 9,169,280,000 1203112.33 Feb 08, 2018 8,265.59 9,346,750,000 1130802.52 Feb 09, 2018 8,736.98 6,784,820,000 776563.5265 Feb 10, 2018 8,621.90 7,780,960,000 902464.654 Feb 11, 2018 8,129.97 6,122,190,000 753039.6791 Feb 12, 2018 8,926.57 6,256,440,000 700878.3889 Feb 13, 2018 8,598.31 5,696,720,000 662539.499 Feb 14, 2018 9,494.63 7,909,820,000 833083.543 Feb 15, 2018 10,166.40 9,062,540,000 891420.7586 Feb 16, 2018 10,233.90 7,296,160,000 712940.3258 Feb 17, 2018 11,112.70 8,660,880,000 779367.7504 Feb 18, 2018 10,551.80 8,744,010,000 828674.7285 Feb 19, 2018 11,225.30 7,652,090,000 681682.4495 Feb 20, 2018 11,403.70 9,926,540,000 870466.6029 Feb 21, 2018 10,690.40 9,405,340,000 879793.0854 Feb 22, 2018 10,005.00 8,040,080,000 803606.1969 Feb 23, 2018 10,301.10 7,739,500,000 751327.5281 Feb 24, 2018 9,813.07 6,917,930,000 704971.0233 Feb 25, 2018 9,664.73 5,706,940,000 590491.4053 Feb 26, 2018 10,366.70 7,287,690,000 702990.3441 Feb 27, 2018 10,725.60 6,966,180,000 649490.9376 Feb 28, 2018 10,397.90 6,936,190,000 667076.0442 Mar 01, 2018 10,951.00 7,317,280,000 668183.7275 Mar 02, 2018 11,086.40 7,620,590,000 687381.8372 Mar 03, 2018 11,489.70 6,690,570,000 582310.2431 Mar 04, 2018 11,512.60 6,084,150,000 528477.4942 Mar 05, 2018 11,573.30 6,468,540,000 558919.2365 Mar 06, 2018 10,779.90 6,832,170,000 633787.883 Mar 07, 2018 9,965.57 8,797,910,000 882830.5857 Mar 08, 2018 9,395.01 7,186,090,000 764883.6989 Mar 09, 2018 9,337.55 8,704,190,000 932170.6443 Mar 10, 2018 8,866.00 5,386,320,000 607525.3778 Mar 11, 2018 9,578.63 6,296,370,000 657335.1304 Mar 12, 2018 9,205.12 6,457,400,000 701500.9038 Mar 13, 2018 9,194.85 5,991,140,000 651575.6103 Mar 14, 2018 8,269.81 6,438,230,000 778522.1184 Mar 15, 2018 8,300.86 6,834,430,000 823339.9913 Mar 16, 2018 8,338.35 5,289,380,000 634343.7251 Mar 17, 2018 7,916.88 4,426,150,000 559077.5659 Mar 18, 2018 8,223.68 6,639,190,000 807325.9174 Mar 19, 2018 8,630.65 6,729,110,000 779675.9224 Mar 20, 2018 8,913.47 6,361,790,000 713727.6504 Mar 21, 2018 8,929.28 6,043,130,000 676776.851 Mar 22, 2018 8,728.47 5,530,390,000 633603.5983 Mar 23, 2018 8,879.62 5,954,120,000 670537.7032 Mar 24, 2018 8,668.12 5,664,600,000 653498.1057 Mar 25, 2018 8,495.78 4,569,880,000 537899.9927 Mar 26, 2018 8,209.40 5,921,040,000 721251.2486 Mar 27, 2018 7,833.04 5,378,250,000 686610.8178 Edit: I added the calculations from December 17th through to today using the close for the day. It's definitely clear to see that volume's have dropped off a little but not as much as would seem apparent if you considered USD volumes. The average BTC volume in this period was 880,883 per day. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: NeuroticFish on March 28, 2018, 07:36:41 PM Be interested to hear any opinions on what this could mean for the market. Interesting find, I was also under the impression the volumes got really low because I've read so, but I didn't check. It would be nice to see how these numbers look like for a longer period of time, but this could be the silence before the storm, whether the storm will be orchestrated by bulls.. or bears... Edit: thanks for the list of numbers, they are indeed interesting. March 9th was almost the same volume as December 19th :) Indeed, somebody has tried some manipulation in that area too, still can't understand the reasons. They wanted to imply people don't trade Bitcoin anymore? Really??!?! Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: cryptocrusher on March 28, 2018, 07:54:12 PM Be interested to hear any opinions on what this could mean for the market. Interesting find, I was also under the impression the volumes got really low because I've read so, but I didn't check. It would be nice to see how these numbers look like for a longer period of time, but this could be the silence before the storm, whether the storm will be orchestrated by bulls.. or bears... Here you go, I took the liberty to do it all for you, the initial figures differ slightly to the table because I used highs initially and closes in the table but it's not far off. Puts things in to context a little more, I also added the average for comparison. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: bitmover on March 28, 2018, 09:34:27 PM It's a interesting study. But I think the you need to analyze at least a year of data.
We are still with a very high volume.in October we had only 2 bi usd volume according to coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Brazil stockmarket is 3bi usd volume per day, which is significantly lower than btc volume. http://mobile.valor.com.br/financas/5230649/volume-medio-diario-da-bovespa-sobe-11-em-novembro-ante-outubro (http://mobile.valor.com.br/financas/5230649/volume-medio-diario-da-bovespa-sobe-11-em-novembro-ante-outubro) Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: magneto on March 29, 2018, 06:56:02 AM One thing I've constantly seen being said is that bitcoin volume is significantly lower than it was in the run up to and at its peak in December. While looking at the USD/BTC chart I noticed an interesting thing and that is how relatively the volume isn't changed all that much. By that I mean: Dec 17th high: $20,035 Volume: 14,916,600,000 that means approximately 745,000 bitcoin changed hands on that date. Yesterday, March 27th: $7979 Volume: 5,480,430,000 approximately 687,000 bitcoin changed hands. From that we can see that volume is only down about 10% in terms of actual bitcoin traded. I'm not entirely sure how to interpret this, just perhaps to ignore some of the stories stating how bitcoin volume is so low, because all of them are measuring that volume in USD not in BTC. Be interested to hear any opinions on what this could mean for the market. All data was taken from coinmarketcap. Date Close Volume Bitcoin volume Dec 17, 2017 19,140.80 13,314,600,000 695613.5585 Dec 18, 2017 19,114.20 14,839,500,000 776359.9837 Dec 19, 2017 17,776.70 16,894,500,000 950373.2414 Dec 20, 2017 16,624.60 22,149,700,000 1332344.838 Dec 21, 2017 15,802.90 16,516,600,000 1045162.597 Dec 22, 2017 13,831.80 22,198,000,000 1604852.586 Dec 23, 2017 14,699.20 13,086,000,000 890252.5307 Dec 24, 2017 13,925.80 11,572,300,000 830997.142 Dec 25, 2017 14,026.60 10,664,700,000 760319.6783 Dec 26, 2017 16,099.80 13,454,300,000 835681.1886 Dec 27, 2017 15,838.50 12,487,600,000 788433.2481 Dec 28, 2017 14,606.50 12,336,500,000 844589.7374 Dec 29, 2017 14,656.20 13,025,500,000 888736.5074 Dec 30, 2017 12,952.20 14,452,600,000 1115841.324 Dec 31, 2017 14,156.40 12,136,300,000 857301.2913 Jan 01, 2018 13,657.20 10,291,200,000 753536.5961 Jan 02, 2018 14,982.10 16,846,600,000 1124448.509 Jan 03, 2018 15,201.00 16,871,900,000 1109920.4 Jan 04, 2018 15,599.20 21,783,200,000 1396430.586 Jan 05, 2018 17,429.50 23,840,900,000 1367847.615 Jan 06, 2018 17,527.00 18,314,600,000 1044936.384 Jan 07, 2018 16,477.60 15,866,000,000 962882.9441 Jan 08, 2018 15,170.10 18,413,900,000 1213828.518 Jan 09, 2018 14,595.40 16,660,000,000 1141455.527 Jan 10, 2018 14,973.30 18,500,800,000 1235586.01 Jan 11, 2018 13,405.80 16,534,100,000 1233354.22 Jan 12, 2018 13,980.60 12,065,700,000 863031.6295 Jan 13, 2018 14,360.20 12,763,600,000 888817.7045 Jan 14, 2018 13,772.00 11,084,100,000 804828.6378 Jan 15, 2018 13,819.80 12,750,800,000 922647.2163 Jan 16, 2018 11,490.50 18,853,800,000 1640816.327 Jan 17, 2018 11,188.60 18,830,600,000 1683016.642 Jan 18, 2018 11,474.90 15,020,400,000 1308978.727 Jan 19, 2018 11,607.40 10,740,400,000 925306.2701 Jan 20, 2018 12,899.20 11,801,700,000 914917.2042 Jan 21, 2018 11,600.10 9,935,180,000 856473.6511 Jan 22, 2018 10,931.40 10,537,400,000 963957.0412 Jan 23, 2018 10,868.40 9,660,610,000 888871.407 Jan 24, 2018 11,359.40 9,940,990,000 875133.3697 Jan 25, 2018 11,259.40 8,873,170,000 788067.7478 Jan 26, 2018 11,171.40 9,746,200,000 872424.2261 Jan 27, 2018 11,440.70 7,583,270,000 662832.6938 Jan 28, 2018 11,786.30 8,350,360,000 708480.1846 Jan 29, 2018 11,296.40 7,107,360,000 629170.3552 Jan 30, 2018 10,106.30 8,637,860,000 854700.5333 Jan 31, 2018 10,221.10 8,041,160,000 786721.5857 Feb 01, 2018 9,170.54 9,959,400,000 1086021.107 Feb 02, 2018 8,830.75 12,726,900,000 1441202.616 Feb 03, 2018 9,174.91 7,263,790,000 791701.499 Feb 04, 2018 8,277.01 7,073,550,000 854602.0846 Feb 05, 2018 6,955.27 9,285,290,000 1335000.654 Feb 06, 2018 7,754.00 13,999,800,000 1805493.939 Feb 07, 2018 7,621.30 9,169,280,000 1203112.33 Feb 08, 2018 8,265.59 9,346,750,000 1130802.52 Feb 09, 2018 8,736.98 6,784,820,000 776563.5265 Feb 10, 2018 8,621.90 7,780,960,000 902464.654 Feb 11, 2018 8,129.97 6,122,190,000 753039.6791 Feb 12, 2018 8,926.57 6,256,440,000 700878.3889 Feb 13, 2018 8,598.31 5,696,720,000 662539.499 Feb 14, 2018 9,494.63 7,909,820,000 833083.543 Feb 15, 2018 10,166.40 9,062,540,000 891420.7586 Feb 16, 2018 10,233.90 7,296,160,000 712940.3258 Feb 17, 2018 11,112.70 8,660,880,000 779367.7504 Feb 18, 2018 10,551.80 8,744,010,000 828674.7285 Feb 19, 2018 11,225.30 7,652,090,000 681682.4495 Feb 20, 2018 11,403.70 9,926,540,000 870466.6029 Feb 21, 2018 10,690.40 9,405,340,000 879793.0854 Feb 22, 2018 10,005.00 8,040,080,000 803606.1969 Feb 23, 2018 10,301.10 7,739,500,000 751327.5281 Feb 24, 2018 9,813.07 6,917,930,000 704971.0233 Feb 25, 2018 9,664.73 5,706,940,000 590491.4053 Feb 26, 2018 10,366.70 7,287,690,000 702990.3441 Feb 27, 2018 10,725.60 6,966,180,000 649490.9376 Feb 28, 2018 10,397.90 6,936,190,000 667076.0442 Mar 01, 2018 10,951.00 7,317,280,000 668183.7275 Mar 02, 2018 11,086.40 7,620,590,000 687381.8372 Mar 03, 2018 11,489.70 6,690,570,000 582310.2431 Mar 04, 2018 11,512.60 6,084,150,000 528477.4942 Mar 05, 2018 11,573.30 6,468,540,000 558919.2365 Mar 06, 2018 10,779.90 6,832,170,000 633787.883 Mar 07, 2018 9,965.57 8,797,910,000 882830.5857 Mar 08, 2018 9,395.01 7,186,090,000 764883.6989 Mar 09, 2018 9,337.55 8,704,190,000 932170.6443 Mar 10, 2018 8,866.00 5,386,320,000 607525.3778 Mar 11, 2018 9,578.63 6,296,370,000 657335.1304 Mar 12, 2018 9,205.12 6,457,400,000 701500.9038 Mar 13, 2018 9,194.85 5,991,140,000 651575.6103 Mar 14, 2018 8,269.81 6,438,230,000 778522.1184 Mar 15, 2018 8,300.86 6,834,430,000 823339.9913 Mar 16, 2018 8,338.35 5,289,380,000 634343.7251 Mar 17, 2018 7,916.88 4,426,150,000 559077.5659 Mar 18, 2018 8,223.68 6,639,190,000 807325.9174 Mar 19, 2018 8,630.65 6,729,110,000 779675.9224 Mar 20, 2018 8,913.47 6,361,790,000 713727.6504 Mar 21, 2018 8,929.28 6,043,130,000 676776.851 Mar 22, 2018 8,728.47 5,530,390,000 633603.5983 Mar 23, 2018 8,879.62 5,954,120,000 670537.7032 Mar 24, 2018 8,668.12 5,664,600,000 653498.1057 Mar 25, 2018 8,495.78 4,569,880,000 537899.9927 Mar 26, 2018 8,209.40 5,921,040,000 721251.2486 Mar 27, 2018 7,833.04 5,378,250,000 686610.8178 Edit: I added the calculations from December 17th through to today using the close for the day. It's definitely clear to see that volume's have dropped off a little but not as much as would seem apparent if you considered USD volumes. The average BTC volume in this period was 880,883 per day. Interesting study. There is really no point in measuring volume in USD and saying that the volume dropped from December last year when the ATH of BTC was hit. Well, no crap that bitcoin volume will down in fiat terms when its prices go down as well. IMO, if you're conducting any sort of study based on volume in a volatile market, you're probably better off using the native currency as a measure of volume instead of fiat currency. Plus, volume will always be higher in periods of high volatility, everyone knows that. IMO, only if the price is relatively stable yet the volume is going up drastically will it actually lead to a big movement upward or downwards. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: criptix on March 29, 2018, 07:07:06 AM Amount of btc volume did not change much but the amount of fiat money traded differs by a lot.
Demand for btc with fiat is definitely going down. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: timerland on March 29, 2018, 07:25:57 AM Amount of btc volume did not change much but the amount of fiat money traded differs by a lot. Demand for btc with fiat is definitely going down. Of course. If bitcoin volumes are staying the same, but fiat volume is drastically decreasing, that literally means that the price of BTC is going down. And indeed it has. If the price of bitcoin is going down, doesn't that literally mean that demand for bitcoin has reduced? So what's your point here? ::) I honestly don't think that there is as much correlation between volume and price as some people think. And it's no good trying to argue that BTC is going down further because the USD volumes have been going down, because as OP has shown, bitcoin volume only decreased by around 10%. If this BTC volume does increase or decrease dramatically that can definitely be a sign of a pump/dump. However, right now, it's just staying put. So there's really nothing to extract from this. But even without the volumes, I think it's safe to say that 2018 is going to be a relatively quiet year compared to 2017. We probably will go down further for the year as well, being stuck in this bear market. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: Pursuer on March 29, 2018, 07:30:27 AM thanks, this was a pretty interesting way of looking at things.
also I would like to add one more thing. this is something that people usually forget, and that's the fact that the way price changes affects the volume too. for example if price doesn't move at all or moves less than 5% (up or down doesn't matter) the volume will be a lot lower compared to when it is moving 40% for example. so when comparing volume of these days with the volume of December for instance people should also take into consideration that big change too. the change in December was more than $10,000 and the change these days is less than $2000 so obviously the volume should also be a lot smaller. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: Wind_FURY on March 29, 2018, 07:45:02 AM Amount of btc volume did not change much but the amount of fiat money traded differs by a lot. Demand for btc with fiat is definitely going down. Confining the level of demand to the price should also be a good indicator of that. Hahaha. I believe we should also be worried about the low transaction volume. Some transactions with a fee of 1 Satoshi are going through! Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: Welhell on March 29, 2018, 09:36:45 AM This situations mean is everything gonna be alright or there is still a lot of demand for bitcoin. All of them come to mean the price will increase and we should get more altcoins which we can earn more profit.
Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: o_e_l_e_o on March 29, 2018, 10:41:51 AM I believe we should also be worried about the low transaction volume. Some transactions with a fee of 1 Satoshi are going through! Why is this a bad thing? With more exchanges starting to batch their transactions, and more addresses moving to Segwit, the mempool is less clogged up, and transactions are faster and cheaper. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: adam1230 on March 29, 2018, 10:55:01 AM really nice analyses this is a good indicator for market prediction. And it seems we are not going down under 6000$ for now.
If volume gets down in this timeframe we will start to talk about under 6k$ soon. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: alyssa85 on March 29, 2018, 12:14:18 PM Amount of btc volume did not change much but the amount of fiat money traded differs by a lot. Demand for btc with fiat is definitely going down. Of course. If bitcoin volumes are staying the same, but fiat volume is drastically decreasing, that literally means that the price of BTC is going down. And indeed it has. If the price of bitcoin is going down, doesn't that literally mean that demand for bitcoin has reduced? So what's your point here? ::) I honestly don't think that there is as much correlation between volume and price as some people think. I disagree. Remember that new coins are minted every day and get dumped in the market to pay for electricity, taxes and whatnot. So you need a certain amount of volume to absorb all those coins. Volume matters more in the bitcoin markert than in say stocks where the number of issued shares is fixed and they don't need continual buying just to stand still. Title: Re: Let's talk volume. Post by: Wind_FURY on March 30, 2018, 05:34:28 AM I believe we should also be worried about the low transaction volume. Some transactions with a fee of 1 Satoshi are going through! Why is this a bad thing? With more exchanges starting to batch their transactions, and more addresses moving to Segwit, the mempool is less clogged up, and transactions are faster and cheaper. Because that might also mean that Bitcoin is not being used for transactions. It is in my belief that usage, or transaction volume, is more important than trading volume. That's where Bitcoin's real value comes from, not from some artificial form of measurement like the market cap. |