Bitcoin Forum

"it seems to double every month, so if its 4TH now, then it should be 16TH by Jan 1st.."

very interestingly, Ken Slaughter decided to delete this post.  Why would he not want us predicting network hash rate? 
I also find it very disturbing how fast my posts get deleted -- disturbing because this means Ken literally sits on his ass in front of his computer all day moderating the thread, only to post a few vague comments here and there.  This man is highly disturbing.  He should go walk his dog once in awhile. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297530.0

Active Mining has shuttered up its discussion thread, opting instead for a self-moderated one, populated by socks & cheerleaders.
I offer this thread as an open, uncensored forum for ActM discussion.

Stop posting in the cheerleader thread.  Help us keep crumb's thread bumped instead.

you are crumbs you sad fuck.

So if we set our start point as a week before September 4th (when the eASIC press release occured), we would now be in exactly week 9. If this is in fact the case, then low-volume production should happen in the third week of november and normal volume around the holiday season of december. If we're good, Santa (or whichever obese, brightly colored man breaks into YOUR home in the dead of night in the winter) might leave a little extra in our stockings (or similar footwear).

Any asic specialists want to inform the ignorant, myself included, about what kind of volumes are considered "low"? A few hundred? A thousand?

For reference, with a current network hashrate of ~4ph/s, it would take roughly 2000-2500 chips per percentage of the network. Obviously difficultly is not stagnant, and is in fact doubling a little faster than every month. With a 16ph/s network around the new year (2 doublings), each percentage of the network would require 8000-10,000 chips, or (iirc there are 2,500 chips to a standard wafer of 28nm chips), we would need a mere 40 wafers to corner 10% of the market.

After some more basic research, I'm finding that a conservative estimate for the cost of a wafer is ~$4,000. Thus 40 of them would cost $160,000 which is just about HALF of what the avalon refund was worth (~1500btc*200usd/btc = $300,000). What I'm seeing, if all of my assumptions are correct/close (which is an if I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on) is that we can order ~100 wafers using our avalon refund and pre-order funds.
100 wafers = 250,000 chips * (0.95 to account for defective chips) = 237,500 chips * 16-20gh/s = 3.8-4.75ph/s to be distributed between our own mining farm and hardware sales.

If any of the above is wrong I'd welcome corrections.

he deletes your posts now because you have proven over a long period of time and plenty of posts to be a cunt, that have no manners when it comes to holding a discussion. simple as that. the same goes for the epic troll, crumbs.

Ozymandius, it didn't go noticed because nobody reads your posts
sorry

he deletes your posts now because you have proven over a long period of time and plenty of posts to be a cunt, that have no manners when it comes to holding a discussion. simple as that. the same goes for the epic troll, crumbs.

The truth tellers have been proven correct.  That's why we are not allowed to post.