Bitcoin Forum

Hi All,

I have been watching the price of BTC falling since 2014 until it hit previous 2013/14 highs which were more than 1000$

During 2014-2016(Before I decide to invest or hold BTC, I was using BTC to transact with folks.. paying for digital services.. like hosting/vpn, paying freelancers so I strongly believe in the power and the useful case of crypto).

Then I decided to dig in and bought BTC  at 1200$ in March 2017.

Then kept buying on the way up until October 2017, so my avg cost were about 2.5k

I never thought or found it reasonable for BTC to hit 20k by end of 2017, it just seemed wrong because it's just too crazy thing to happen, however, I was sure that BTC will be valued at 20k in a few years due to high demand and capped supply.

So BTC kept going up gradually since beginning of 2017

my pattern for BTC price is like this..

1k-->3k (it took 3-4 months)
3k-1.8k (dip, 40% loss)
3k-->5k (it took one month)
5k-->3k (dip 50% loss lasted for less than a month)
5k-->20k (2 months)
20k-->?????????

my point is, why the hell everyone thinks BTC is dead? or unhappy with what is going on? like seriously, are humans that stupid to think BTC will keep going up -non-stop? a simple living being with a half brain would expect BTC to dip based on the previous uptrend hype...

in fact, my opinion is, all people who bought BTC since 4-5k levels where in it for greed, remember BTG fork? then 2x fork that was cancelled? then hype of CME? the price of BTC after 4-5k levels were made because of people who are in the thing for a buck! not believers in financial freedom or the technology itself..

BTC was doubling in price and was taking enough time to do so and it was correcting by losing 50% of it's value.

BTC got 4x from 5k to 20k and the human psycho reaction for this is unknown but for sure it will be much harsher than previous dips because the gain of BTC was a lot than 1x.. (it was 4x) ...

so folks, for love of god, can't you see that 4-6 months bear market is normal and healthy for BTC?

BTC will shake out weak hands before it goes up next time and I see that we are close to the bottom of this year.

Comments/replies/thoughts/constructive criticism are welcome...

 

One of the reason why bitcoin had a major price crash is that a large number of people entered into bitcoin last year, 2017. When bitcoins value was already 14k$ huge investors and a lot of people joined in and bought bitcoin. Those were actually newbies in this industry and does not understand how this system works and only in there for a dream of getting a profit. But when the correction happened they panic about their investment and started to sell their coins. It was followed to day but bad news and so even after the correction bitcoin drops to 6k$.

Bitcoin is not dead it is still kickin and still has a good value.

Good points, well made. I just wish I'd got it at the end of last year and sold while I had the chance. Now it's hodl or lose.

This post deserves a Merit! I hope all cryto users knows what path they're about to enter from the moment they have decided to invest money on Crypto just like you. I know the current market was really a pain in the eye, I guess people nowadays should know that, everything that comes easy will also go the same way.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3223826.msg33576960#msg33576960
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2883108.msg33426261#msg33426261

I am seeing two types of people in this forum.  First type are the persons who are awaiting deep fall in btc prices.  They want this because they are having almost nil btc in their wallet.  They have seen btc touching heights beyond expectations.  They wish the btc to fall to unimaginable levels say $50 with the hope that they will be able to buy some coin at those lowest levels.  But their expectations are not limited to just this transaction.  They are of the view that the prices when again rise to $20k they will sell it earning huge profits.  
Other type of people are those, mentioned by you, who bought btc at higher prices with the expectations of higher returns but due to their greed of further rise in prices, they could not sell it at available high prices.  But afterwards as the prices fell, they are now expecting price rise to very higher levels i.e. $50k too ( ;D) so that they may become very rich by just holding few btc in their wallet.
Above persons are just investors.  I think their purpose only is to gain profits instead utilizing it for the purposes it was created for.  BTC instead of using as currency has become the source of investment where high returns are expected.

Finally a well minded investors do their homework and do give informative data precisely dated. So that doesn’t need any more explaining to do. They’re too much talking, no sense and less of mindful prerogative. Those who doesn’t represent the idealist, but the conservatives who think what is right in the past is still significant in the future generations. Is forcely rightfully matter?.

The bottom of this year's price for BTC has not come yet, so I will not buy too many BTCs for the time being. When BTC's price reaches 5,000 to 6,000 USD, I think it is the best time to buy. Then, I still think that the price of BTC will increase in the second half.

yes, I agree with you that in my opinion bitcoin is not just for us always thinking about profitability, I think as a crypto user we all have to think for things binding on the purpose of improving the features that are on bitcoin. I'm sure bitcoin is a virtual currency that has many benefits for human life so I hope every crypto user always thinks wisely about what they do in bitcoin-related activities.

well the way bitcoin adoption always worked is that there are times when a large number of people suddenly find out about bitcoin and start FOMO buying it hence shooting the price up and creating a bubble.
and bubble burst usually end up with a bear market.
i agree that $20k  was unreasonable but also i say $6k-$7k-even $8k is just as unreasonable.

from what i can see there are two groups who are "making this statement" that bitcoin is dead.
1. those who are trying to short bitcoin and make money so they need price to fall and they need more fear in the market so they spread FUD
2. newbies with 0 knowledge about bitcoin, trading and the market who fall for the FUD and lose money.

in short don't pay much attention to the stuff you read on the social media and most of the times on the news sites! they are mostly spreading FUD about bitcoin...

It is good to know that there is someone who shared this information and thoughts about the previous price of bitcoin. This serves as an evidence that bitcoin will surely grow again much bigger than the previous all time high last december.

I also like to experience what you have experienced. From low to high to low and high again. That is a very nice experience.

Exactly! To be a good investor, your mindset should always be in a long term perspective. Don't invest everything in crypto, always choose a thing(in terms of investment) that could be manipulated by you. Crypto may not be your ticket to have a financially good life.

Based on the pattern you've given the typical dip takes us either to 50% of the price or to the beginning (bottom of the slope). If we were to follow this again, BTC should stop at half (10k) which as we already know was about to happen before the FUD info about the Korean government banning BTC came and ruined the day, or at 5k. Current situation with a 6k bottom is bullish. It shows that the support is higher than the average = the confidence is above average. Even if we were to get down to $5k it would still be a normal correction, because as you all know huge corrections usually end in depression (price below the mean level).

Precisely, sometimes a good strategy wins versus big investment. No to hype or pumping of prices, but with legitimate project development. Bitcoin does have it all, but remember to be conscious when to buy and when to perfectly sell. Those who result panicking are the new investors who doesn’t trust bitcoin, but trusted FUDs and negative news who are totally just an scare tactic from whales or competitors.

Op post been merited by me. Positivity deserves it.

The 50% dip in my pattern were based on bitcoin doubling in price before it flies to 20k, when it shoot to 20k in less than two months from 5k, this is 4x of it's previous price, and the bear market is a fair reaction of that very hyped trend full of FOMO, GREED.

All the money that flowed into bitcoin until it hits 5k was money from investors/traders/commerce (smart money!), remember the china fud when btc dipped to 3k? it rebounded cause lots of smart investors were waiting for it.

from my own point of view, as long as BTC keeps trading above 5k maybe 4.k, it's very bullish long term.

But who knows? I could be wrong, this is just my own opinion, and thanks for sharing your thoughts. :)

They dont think that bitcoin is dead but they are made to think like that way so that it can create FUD amongst them and thus they will sell it for the dust value. They here refers to the whales and big people who want to buy the coins at cheap rate from the weeks. However this is really not what I am interested in discussing.

I got somethign to talk on and thats this one:


Its your rough analysis but I do see a pattern here on how bitcoin recovers with increasing intervals. I think initially the prices were not much and thus BCT was able to recover it faster. Then the time gradually increased as the value increased too. So it means that with the current value and ATH window I am sure it will take more than three months considering the previous spikes.

Great post. You will notice that all the people claim bitcoin is dead, tend to be either newbie or jr members who have likely not even invested. They don't know that this cyclic trend that we see in bitcoin is a normal part of the process. Bitcoin rises up, reaches an all time high, and then dips for the next few months until the cycle repeats once more. This process has repeated for the past few years and is mainly determined by market sentiment and FUD. When there is no FUD, sentiment increases and a rally begins. This will likely be no different.

One of the reason why bitcoin had a major price crash is that a large number of people entered into bitcoin last year, 2017. When bitcoins value was already 14k$ huge investors and a lot of people joined in and bought bitcoin.

I'm sure that 80% of these new investors probably cashed out a long time ago, when Bitcoin dropped to around $10,000 and the weak hands couldn't maintain their position any longer.

It's highly unlikely that the recent drop was due to these, but rather due to a general uneasiness in the market, probably due to the length of time we have been in this dip, combined with the banning of ICO media.

It's going to go up eventually. Are you trying to calm people down, calm yourself down, or just gather opinions about the situation?
I have 2 clashing opinions about this trend. One is positive because I know that we're going back to 20k at some point and I know that we are not going to fall below 5000 USD. The other is negative because If that trustee dumps all the GOX coins at once no TA or tea leafs will help us.

This are the cause why people gets panic. Guys if you going back in the last few years we are all safe on it's current price and it's eventually grow day by day. Even if the market's get dump and i'm very excited on bitcoin price future.

Yeah, you are right on your point. It’s not the first time Bitcoin is low in price. Every time it has recovered. And I don’t see any reason why it won’t recover this time. Rise and fall in price is nothing new in the market. Good days are coming, I believe.

I agreed with OP, glad to see a calm guy here. BTC has gone through many ups and down since the past years, there is nothing to panic about. The past prices have shown that holding will bring the most profits for the non traders.

I think the realistic price of bitcoin last year was before the BCH hard fork, after that everything is just a hype. So as of now i think bitcoin has more bottoms to land before throttling to a new heights of above 20k. We need more patience and more money to buy bitcoins when it reach below 5k this year.

I have the same views. The BTC historical prices show us clearly of the uptrend and downtrend. BTC recover every time, it makes no exception this time.

OP, it seems like your modus operandi is to make long term investments based on your assessment of the fundamentals of an asset (read: you're not a day trader)
Do you think it would be helpful to have the advice of someone with a similar investment approach and philosophy - and a proven track record, from whom you could get insights? I've often felt that having more resources like this would help folks make smarter investments.

Nice thinking.  I am also finding the reasons for which people are being depressed and sad. Mostly people have invested in this sector without having proper knowledge and study. But if people do that carefully, they would not be sad and can make proper planning.