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Title: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: TraderTimm on July 27, 2011, 09:42:53 PM Found this article while reading things on the web:
"Minority Rules: Scientists discover tipping point for the spread of ideas" http://scienceblog.com/46622/minority-rules-scientists-discover-tipping-point-for-the-spread-of-ideas/ I found this interesting: Quote “When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10 percent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of the universe for this size group to reach the majority,” said SCNARC Director Boleslaw Szymanski, the Claire and Roland Schmitt Distinguished Professor at Rensselaer. “Once that number grows above 10 percent, the idea spreads like flame.” Could it be that simple? If you convinced just one out of ten people you know to use bitcoin, could it spur the growth curve that we've all been wondering about? Share your opinions, please. Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: im3w1l on July 27, 2011, 09:51:43 PM What they are saying is that once 10% are fanboys, the rest is easy. Duh.
Also, it was in a simulation, so... Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: MoonShadow on July 27, 2011, 09:52:34 PM I've always thought that the "tipping point" was closer to 12%, but yes, this is pretty much how all things happen. Things are considered "mainstream" once they cross that threshhold, and hold mindshare in roughly one-eighth of the target population.
Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: markm on July 27, 2011, 09:52:50 PM That seems absurd because unless it takes close to the age of the universe for the less than 10% to become more than 10% the whole thing falls apart; if we can go from under 10% to over 10% within even a mere few centuries the initial premise seems doomed.
-MarkM- Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: Serith on July 27, 2011, 10:08:43 PM That seems absurd because unless it takes close to the age of the universe for the less than 10% to become more than 10% the whole thing falls apart; if we can go from under 10% to over 10% within even a mere few centuries the initial premise seems doomed. -MarkM- That's because their simulation model is limited, and that makes it only somewhat useful Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: TKE406 on July 27, 2011, 10:13:06 PM 10% seems like an awful lot for bitcoin to achieve in our lifetime...
Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: Jack of Diamonds on July 27, 2011, 11:32:56 PM 10% seems like an awful lot for bitcoin to achieve in our lifetime... True, 10% of what? The world population? Paypal is king because it's the oldest e-currency around & has big capital backing it, they have 100m total accounts (of which *at least* 50-60m are active). That's still only 1.4% of the world's population even in the most optimistic scenario (all PP users belonging to unique users who have been steadily registering since the 2000's) Even if we take the total amount of internet users, 2 billion (http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm), that's only 5% of the users who, since the dawn of the internet, have registered on PayPal. Will bitcoin ever surpass 200 million active users (or much more, given the amount is constantly growing) to claim a 10% 'mindshare' (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mindshare)? Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: DiamondPlus on July 27, 2011, 11:34:22 PM What they are saying is that once 10% are fanboys, the rest is easy. Duh. Also, it was in a simulation, so... duh Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: Trader Steve on July 28, 2011, 01:13:06 AM Everyone keeps talking about bitcoin achieving "acceptance" but that is a vague term. The fact is that bitcoin is already accepted by a large number of people. I don't see there being any magic percentage. It has value now. It is accepted by many now. Why does everyone need to buy into it for it to be of value? Most people don't "buy into" gold and yet it still serves a useful purpose to those who value it. In my opinion, bitcoin has already succeeded. Just my 2 bitcents. :)
Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: netrin on July 28, 2011, 01:34:07 AM Why does everyone need to buy into it for it to be of value? Most people don't "buy into" gold and yet it still serves a useful purpose to those who value it. Because gold is pretty, has history, and is an excellent store of value. Bitcoin is potentially the most liquid money ever seen on Earth. But not yet. Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: amincd on July 28, 2011, 01:36:39 AM That's why if we can get a big minority in a niche market, like poker, or micropayments, it could spread like wildfire, as every one in that niche market adopts it, and then those people become the minority in a larger social network.
Title: Re: 10% The key to bitcoin acceptance? Post by: the founder on July 28, 2011, 02:06:56 AM True, 10% of what? The world population? Paypal is king because it's the oldest e-currency around & has big capital backing it, they have 100m total accounts (of which *at least* 50-60m are active). That's still only 1.4% of the world's population even in the most optimistic scenario (all PP users belonging to unique users who have been steadily registering since the 2000's) No man... in that case it's 10% of the population that uses any currency online.. such as VISA, Mastercard or paypal. Not grandpa that reads news on foxnews and complains all day long about politics. in that case he wouldn't count because she doesn't buy ANYTHING online... It's 10% of whatever the target market is.. and currently we need 10% of paypal's market... 50-60 million active... meaning we need 5-6 million from our current 100,000 or so. It will take a few years... considering Washington will come down on bitcoin a few times between now and that 5-6 million threshold. |