Bitcoin Forum

The futures market at https://796.com/ has a $252 dollar high to day(now its $256.89) . Currently futures are trading 251. Monitoring this gives an indication that the $260 dollar high will soon be tested maybe even tomorrow or certainly by Saturday.

What happens then???


Crystal Ball 101 says

Well traditionally that high  is resistance and a sell off /pull back should occur.

Some excellent insight and rules are stated here

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:john_murphy_s_ten_la

What should we be looking for to indicate price direction in the short term?

Look at item 10 from the link above.

Volume accompanied by an increasing price is important

Where are we now?

Volumes over the last few days apart from 2 days chbtc "aberration' are running at approx 100,000 bitcoins traded daily. with a 60% China 40% BIG3 split.

Today increased price is accompanied with increased volume , 73k traded by the big 3 and 130k traded in China

Total 203k with 37% v 63%

http://btckan.com/price

The increase in volume and price indicates more upward pressure on prices..Therefore $260 should be tested very very soon after which

Option 1  Price will pullback to one of the  former resistance levels  ..either approx $230  or $200 .( If it breaks below 200 then its 150 or $100..both of those are worst scenarios and UNLIKEY)

Option 2 Price and volume will continue to push ahead and achieve new highs.(my favored view based on recent data) The amount can be estimated /guesstimated by monitoring the daily volumes/values and the volume on the futures market but no concrete value can be given..only a range within a top and bottom trend channel..see item 5 in the John Murphy link.

Overall the majority of indicators are positive for Coin holders. (Adverse action by Government is the major danger)

How about today?

Probably within the next hour at the rate we're going.

How about $300 today?

Would not be shocked.

Today as we post

Mt gox high $250  current bid ask is 244.01/ 245.06

BTCChina High $248.86    bid/ask  is 244.32/244.79

Futures

High $256.89     Bid ask    245.5/ 259.5 ( TOP and Bottom)

current 255.99

$300 today  or even by Saturday most unlikely

Today, before you posted, we hit $257 on gox.

I would like to see this but there is a problem with day traders who thinks, that if they won't dump now then someone else will do this and here we go back again at $200 ...

Volume high on all exchanges. All of that fiat flushed into the system over the last week is becoming eligible to purchase BTC. It should take at least a week before it slows down and corrects.

Just checked mt gox. you are correct..showing high of $257.594..weighted average 242.415  last trade 251.076

i refreshed the http://btckan.com/price site where I got my original data and it now has caught up and shows mtgox high$257.595

Things just move Sooooooooooooooooooo Fast :)

Normally I would agree totally. the big unknown which may alter that is how much promotion/exposure of bitcoin is ongoing in China. Not being able to understand the Mandarin sites leaves me guessing with the only indicators for me being monitoring futures and volume/price action in the chinese markets.

in other matters such as stock market HOT shares they seem to keep pushing and pushing the price ( more money than sense??)  bitcoin could be affected in the same manner. We will soon know.

Thanks for the link. I hadn't seen that site before.

The volume on the Chinese exchanges is frightening. 130k in all versus only 70k for the Big Three.

I think we will test the ATH very soon. I hope we do get a bit of a sell off, and move back down and consolidate for a while (but staying above $200). Build a nice base just below $266 and let the pressure build for a while before we finally bust through, then just let it fly!

yah yah we all heard the same crap..... wish it dips so i can buy it lower then FLY!!!

Problem is everyone wishes the same thing so dips can never happen!

The price is increasing so fast, usually indicate bubble is going to pop soon.

But ATH will be done today hopefully

I don't have any money to buy more so it doesn't really matter to me if it dips. I just think we'll get a better rally if it at least consolidates for a while before we break $266.

Mini-crash.  Remains to be seen how mini.

here it comes

If only BTC ATHs gave me orgasms I'd have this week with a happy ending.

BTC ATHs don't give you orgasms?

Ok so we got the new ATH which currently is showing 272.52. Tissues to all those that need them.

Last trade Mt gox as I post $260

Futures off the highs at $260 as well.

When futures and trades are approx the same this indicates reduction in price pressure so  Consolidation or retracement SHORT TERM is the question to be answered.

How do we decide  which is most likely?


a) Volumes
Big 3 137K    China 135K so china volumes are flat while Big3 volumes have doubled since yesterday  .Indicates consolidation /range bound prices in China..price pressure building in the rest of the world

b) pricing bid /ask

Big2   Bid 254-258   Btc-E  246         Ask  254-260.2   Btc-E  247.3  

conclusion  slight upward pressure  range bound pricing Big 2  250-270

china   Bid 262-265    Ask 263-266

Conclusion ..consolidation  range bound 262-270

These refer to short term  ( 2-4 days)

What about medium term 1-3 months +

Harder to evaluate but certainly will push upward eventually a possible (arguably ) indicator is elliot wave theory

zazuli has a chart posted yesterday at the bottom of this link that shows a possible $500 price by xmas

http://www.rugatu.com/questions/19230/elliott-wave-analysis-and-forecast-for-bitcoin-dollar-btcusd-price-history

Of all the wave charts out there these are the ones that most closely match my own and where I took a position last APRIL that long term by Oct 2014 I would have a price target of $400

This Chart was posted 8 days ago

https://www.tradingview.com/v/vIGjP5kR/


This was posted 22hours ago

https://www.tradingview.com/v/EGGBOeOJ/

Have some fun with this link if you have not seen it before

Enter YOUR assumptions and see what the price could be :)

http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/02/calculating-the-long-term-value-of-a-bitcoin/