Bitcoin Forum

With some luck, this thread will only be relevant for the next few days at most (11/5/2013).  I figured it was time to dust off my speculation cap. I proudly disclaim that I fall into the uber-bull camp.

With only one historical price benchmark left ($266 Gox ATH), we’re about to enter uncharted territory.  The market will be looking for any tea leaves it can find for clues about what will happen next.  Watch the behavior around $266 very closely.  There are four possible scenarios:

A) $266 proves to be significant resistance, with attempts to break through being met with an increased selling volume. (We have not seen this behavior to date on this rally.) Such resistance would once again provide a healthy consolidation phase and allow potential buyers to reload.
B) $266 proves to be significant resistance, and this scares a few folks into selling.  Right now, only 10,000 Bitcoins sold would take our price back down to $210.
C) $266 gets steadily eaten through over the course of hours or days. The strongest outcome. If this occurs, expect the rally to gain steam.
D) $266 gets blown through by an impulsive move, most likely a high-volume buy.  If this occurs, there is a higher likelihood for a head-fake.  It will be hardest to know the long-term outcome in this case. I speculate the most likely is a pop above, a high-volume sell-off that follows (with the aim of loosening more bitcoins).  When the rally resumes, it will be violent and without warning.

If you're day trading, I’d suggest having a pre-existing plan in place for each scenario.  Here, minutes will matter.

As for likelihoods and timeframes, I predict we'll encounter B) within a day. After between 1 and 3 failed breakthroughs, D) occurs.

I think history will repeat and the actual resistance to the ATH will come before we actually get close to it, i.e. happening right now.

Once we break 260 or so we'll breeze right past 266 like it ain't not thing.

Rocket!  ;D

I think we'll probably blow right by it, since this rally seems to be driven by the chinese, and $266 has no significance for them.

Looking forward to some uncharted territory.

You forgot:

5) $266 has absolutely no meaning to Chinese investors, who are looking more at ¥1600, so it blows right through it like nothing because it doesn't matter to the people who are dragging the market around like a rag doll right now.

Think of history as a legend. Think of history as your true hope. History is your wish. My elders use to say that when I was young. If you're going to just pay $266 for nothing. Or else.

I was thinking about this today. Now that we have three major exchanges representing different parts of the world and currencies, we should see some pretty amazing price movement. Now it's Gox, Stamp and China; once CampBX implements ACH transfers later this month Americans will have another good choice besides Coinbase.

this is pretty much my thinking. the correction at 258 is part of this resistance.... i think we'll blow right past it.

We may stay just below for the rest of the day, but tomorrow we'll see more action as we go past $266 by only a little bit. That peak is around 198 Euro and I think we'll hit above 200 Euro before falling back. New all time high! This fall back could be dramatic, like to around the $160s which would be around 1000 CNY. That may be a bit dramatic, but it may be worth putting some buys in under $200 and then sell on the multiple rebounds to follow. The rest of the week will be a down turn to revisit whatever low the fall back hits tomorrow. See that to carry us through next week and a gradual rise to 2000 CNY the 2 weeks after.

What do I know though....

I did watch very closely what happened around the previous ATH at $31.89

We paused just below it for some time, at most 2 days or so.
Then a big fish bought all the walls up to $31.89. There was no significant sell resistance ahead, but still nothing happened at first. Then, after a few minutes, another couple of big buys happened taking us well over the ATH. Then the rest of the sheep joined the fun with many many smaller buys.

Ofcourse, the delay had meant we got behind on the trend we were following until then, but the brief period of rapid increase that followed got us back on track.

We are not going to fall like that. A great fall would only happen if we go up exponentially the next couple/few/several days. If we go from $260 to $400 in 4 days, then we might fall back to 200 or below. But there is no way a fall is going to be that great unless the climb is out of control.

same thing that happened when we broke last ATH. many will sell, price will keep going higher, many pigs will be slaughtered. much regret. maybe a couple suicides

Space, the final frontier  :D

True, but back then Americans were watching what Americans knew to be the ATH.  Now we have Chinese investors that don't know or care and they are the majority.

The last move into uncharted territory for reference

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=15-min&c=1&s=2013-02-15&e=2013-03-15&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

Maybe the 266 resistance was at 235...

1800 in 7 business days  8)

It went down the last time you started counting business days, right?

Usually, when I spend $266 it's just never as successful as planned.

The Chinese may still be looking at price history in USD in order to try and predict price movement. And the ATH will be the same for them, i.e. whatever the equivalent of $266 is in renminbi.

$300 is next

Except that the common chinese worker cannot afford to risk even $100 into bitcoin.

So far, so good.  The relative shallowness of the dip, and the rapidity with which the market shrugged it off bodes very well.

China is #2 in GDP. There's plenty of money there.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325694.0

But often significant rates roughly coincide. We should arrive at ¥1600 and $266 more or less simultaneously, so the Chinese may perceive it as resistance around ¥1600.

There is actually an interesting wiki site on numbers in Chinese culture, and given the superstitious nature of many Chinese, I thought it may be of interest in the coming weeks/months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_in_Chinese_culture

In the short rally so far, I have, however, not been yet been able to spot any correlation between this and events in BTC rates on the Chinese exchanges,

... agreed it won't take much to blast this market to 1000 usd there are  to few bitcoins for sale with so much interest
If you are gonna gamble on a drop make sure you have a trigger limit sitting above the next wall .

You're right.  I didn't do my homework.  So much for that theory.

Yep, it's gonna be a megawall.

It's the common American worker cannot afford investments, because he have to buy 100-inch TV first. Chinese worker cannot afford to not invest.

+1

Chinese priorities: health, wealth & family

American priorities: big screen TV, SUV & "Dancing with the Stars"

Conclusion: Bullish based on Chinese common sense despite vapid American priorities.

+258.88

Next stop, $290!

We are in uncharted price territory but in terms of market sentiment...

"we've only just begun...."  ~ The Carpenters

www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w
:)

The common chinese worker are not the ppl making speculative bitcoin investments... there is a lot of money in China.

Oh, and what happens at $266? This just happened....

http://31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m72bnrulwt1ra5qn3o1_400.gif

That's what happens!

Woot !

https://i.imgur.com/1bwypzW.png

2000 Yuan - ~$328

¥1750
And we're not stopping. Maybe slow down a little.

Have a seat and enjoy the ride.

https://i.imgur.com/9If4mgJ.jpg

I make mad cash. That's what happens. N

What app is what?

but 1 billion chinese can affort to risk 1$ into Bitcoin !