Bitcoin Forum

The offer of coins on MtGox is dropped precipitously with the run-up in price. From something in the 45k range over the summer months, too these recent new lows of < 20k.

This is obviously the sign of a "broken market" (not in the sense that higher prices are bad... ;) just that at higher prices more goods should be available supply v. demand or ECON 101, or in the USA ECON 4000, cause we're not so smart these days... )

The reasons are numerous, but the most obvious is how MtGox has been shut out of the "SWIFT" wire-transfer system and thus westerners whom rely on the SWIFT interbank wire-transfer system are unable to withdraw USD in any reasonable amount of time, and than must ultimately resort to buying coins to get their money out. Sellers know this, and ultimately refuse to sell creating artificial demand.

What will the ultimate outcome of this cycle be?

Will the price explode so high that no one will bother to pay it?? assuming they will be unable to resell the coins for higher value else-where?

What do you think?

Gox can't process SWIFT transfers, true.

But that ought to just mean that people wanting to buy are taking their business elsewhere - f'rex, to Bitstamp, where the price is $10/coin cheaper, with comparable depth.

Non-Gox exchanges are much, much bigger volume-wise than they were the last time we were at this pricepoint.

I imagine at some price point people will be willing to gamble on getting fiat out and sell the coins on gox.

I see what you're getting at, but why are the other exchanges not far behind?

Expect the amount to decrease over time as mining gets harder and harder and harder...

Right it is something of a conundrum why the other exchanges continue to "follow GOX" with the built in 5-10% "speculation" premium for inability to withdraw.

Still at some point even that has to divorce if the price starts to get "atmospheric" right? Hence my question... I wanted other's opinion... 

These might be the last death throws of gox.  If you can't pay sellers fiat then it's not really an exchange anymore.  At a certain point which appears to be fast approaching traders simply will take their coins to a place where they can get fiat for them.  Bitstamp to Gox % spread has been narrowing.

Agreed. It will be pretty impressive if the "roach motel" effect of inability to withdraw via SWIFT

The spread between MtGox and Bitstamp is about 3%, way less than this summer. What many forget is that JPY and EUR are leaving MTGox even though USD, CAD etc are for the most part trapped. The multi currency design of MTGox means that trapped USD, CAD etc have been in many cases leaving as JPY and EUR. By the way if the overall ATH breaks on Bitstamp, I would not be surprised if we see a very sharp upward spike.

This is also the effect of a greater network of bitcoin users not relying solely in exchanges. People are starting to trade locally so the price would falter at times.

Why doesn't gox come up with another temporary solution like sending money via Western Union (gag), check/money order/ gold/whatever?

I mean yes those options suck but it's better than no options at all?

Nevermind, if EUR and JPY are leaving, why is no one setting up some type of middle man account to help ppl get their fiat out? (With a fee, of course)?

It may turn out that Bitcoin may be the most cost effective way to get USD out of MTGox, especially for small amounts. I know how this sounds but there is a reason why Bitcoin trades for over 250 USD on Bitstamp for example.

Eur are 6 weeks delayed. It's very difficult to deal with bank in Japan.

Also lately Gox hasn't always been the highest price anymore anyways.