Bitcoin Forum

In April it started from 13.4$, went to 266$ (base x 19.8 ) then dived to 55$ (base x 4.1).
Now it started at 140$ (you can see it clearly at year's chart with 1-week bars).

How deep will be the dive this time?

Can we expect that the proportions of peak/dive will be the same as in April, in log scale?
That is if peak will be, say, half of April's, (i.e. base x 9.9), then the dive will be half of April's too (i.e. base x 2.05).

Then, if we'll have peak at $600 (x 4.3 from the base 140), the dive will be to 280$.
(I'ts  140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(4.3)/ln(19.8 )))))
For the peak of 1000$ the dive is 350$   (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(7)/ln(19.8 ))))).
For the peak of 1600$ the dive is 440$   (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(11.4)/ln(19.8 ))))))

So, if you:
-have some fiat
-expect the proportionality
-expect the peak at $600

Then, instead of buying for 310$ now, you should bid for somewhere above 280$ and just wait.

I think this is a reasonably good analysis.  But when BTC is $10,000 are you really going to care whether you bought them at $310 or $280?  (They're $280 on BTC-e right now.)

Just buy some ASAP and hold them.  The boards are full of people who are kicking themselves because they missed their price point by < $10 and then never bought.

you are making an assumption that things will repeat proportionally. i give this 0% chance.

BitchicksHusband, superduh  - thanks.

Buy. As much as you can regardless of price. It was too late TWO YEARS AGO for this standard of "too late". Don't lose out on the possibility of a lifetime.

I believe it was $30-$80 in march...so how was it $13 in april?

The past does not predict the future; similarities are coincidental.

I'm considering buying now as well, but I also have a fairly large portion of bitcoins.  If you believe they will continue to rise theres no reason not to buy now.

BTC is too high and volatile, and  it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

Well, yeah, unlike something with backing it could go to single digits overnight....

But, its unlikely. Very. Unlikely. So, quit QQing and accept your losses. I have and I'm much happier taking them then sitting here watch the ship set sail:)

*spits out beer* *snooorrrtt* *snicker*  heh hehehh hahahhaAHAHAHHA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHHAAAH *ahem* sorry.

Anyway, stock prices AND BITCOIN prices are based on investors exceptions of the future of the company/currency. While I cannot predict the future, if bitcoin were to become mainstream buying now would be like buying Microsoft when bill gates was making computers in his garage. The upside is huge. Most stocks don't offer this kind of upside potential. As for risk, it's speculative. Both stocks and bitcoin can fail.

Its one thing to advise people to sell BTC. But when you combine this with the advice to buy the stockmarket, this goes down as the worse post of advice I have EVER seen on this forum.

And that says a lot.

Are you bullish now Derp?  Or do you still believe bitcoin is just a little niche, destined to go to zero at some point in the near future?

Good analysis but to simplify things just look into Fibonacci retracement percentages....they just work.

You can try to predict / short near the the top and then set your buys for the 50% and 78% levels and usually the 50% will get filled and very often the 78% as well in a flash crash.

Disclosure: I'm not playing any of these shorting games right now...

Sure, long term investors are buying it for the future use where it's widely adopted, etc.  But the reality is that the huge price spikes are mostly driven by people trying to hop aboard the crazy gains train.

Well, true, but that is still based on their speculative opinion/outlook of Bitcoin.

Ha...besides, I doubt of the average stock on the market would satisfy those wanting to get on the good ol' crazy gain train. I'm bored by the stock market at this point, but am now interested in rhodium futures... hmmm lol (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189308.0)

have you been diagnosed as insane!?!?!

In the court of bitcointalk, I believe so.

Hey, it's not too late, but your increments if you expect a plunge, will be little. If you are willing to wait for 6 months, then yes now is the time to buy.

I don't recommend people to invest their money in stocks, bitcoin, gold, poker or whatever, but for investors that have a lot of funds available and want to make extra money, the stockmarket is much safer and it's retegulated by the SEC.

Let's be honest, bitcoin is an illusion like the dollar and have potential of reaching zero today or tomorrow, but the U.S. dollar is backed by the might of the US military. It's pump and dump nothing more, nothing less.

Yeah, you're probably right. If I managed a $2 trillion portfolio, I do not think I would dump it all in Crypto. That said, the fact it's regulated by the SEC doesn't really help me sleep at night.

The U.S. Dollar may be back by the US military,but even the military can't protect from stupid self-destructive decisions & policies. The writing is on the wall when it comes to US supremacy, and we've done it to ourselves.

All in all, don't put all your eggs in one basket would be my advice for the typical personal investor.

The stock market is a horrible investment.

Most wealthy investors do not invest in the stock market. There are much better and safer options. 

Bitcoin is more risky than the stock market, but much much much much much much much much less corrupt and scammy.

In bitcoincharts ( log scale, 1 year, weekly bars), in December there are 4 line-thin weekly barss, at level 13$. I took it as the base level. Then, in January, the parabolic growth starts.

There is similar period in September, 5 weeks of line-thin bars, at 140$, after which the current parabolic growth starts. So I use 13 and 140 as bases for measuring bubble-burst levels.

To everybody: Thanks! I'll buy, straight after I get the fiat. Promise! :)

Too late to buy? To early to buy.

The second great Bitcoin buying opportunity, if you missed being a "super-early adopter" is when the Winklevoss ETF becomes a thing. With a sizable investment together with your broker's provided leverage, depending on Bitcoin's price increase until then, its possible to get the exposure henceforth only available to people who got single digit coins.

Oh, sure, I still believe it goes to near-zero. I was always bullish "mid term", I just didnt expect it so soon. I was still hoping for some more short term drops. Maybe they are still possible, but for now I'm bullish.

Where do you think it goes once the ETF opens and institutional investors and 401k (U.S. tax free retirement accounts) can invest openly and legally in Bitcoin?

How high does it go before it goes to zero?

I mean, SecondMarket brought 15 million into the market since September, which happen to accompany a $175 rise.

What happens when a billion comes into the ETF? (A billion being REALLY conservative based on hedge fund and retirement portfolios.)

Its never too late to buy in an upwards market. The trick is to set a stop loss order at your buy price. Then if it goes down its like nothing happened, but it was better than not acting at all and you had a chance to win.

Just make sure your stop loss order is not on MtGox.  8)

I just picked up another coin. It's never too late to buy bitcoin  :)

The Twitter shares were only offered to insiders and banks before launch.  That kind of value is not offered to the public.

Lets assume Bitcoin is a failure and is only used for drug deals.  It still will be around forever and its value will rise to well over $1000 as buying heroin online is by far the safest way to get it. 

There are no stocks that have the same degree of opportunity.  Buy and hold Bitcoin.

None of the exchanges offer a stop loss, which is why my trader friends laugh at me all the time

How can I get a stop loss going?

Bitfinex offers stop, limit, market and fill or kill.

I find it works very well and allows me to speculate on price rises with borrowed funds and leverage without ever holding usd.

Youre right, if I had followed this after april i'd have 3x the coins.

Yes its too late, the rise has been way too fast. Have some patience.

US dollar is only backed by the believe that the planet resources are infinite and the US economy will grow forever and never collapse. This is bullshit.
On the other hand with Bitcoin, you don't have to trust any government, politics or corporation. Bitcoin is just maths, it cannot lie.

OP, just wait a few hours and enjoy the show. Make the decision to buy or not, and when to buy, after you'll see more.

What are you talking about ?

You know that's not really true. The dollar is going to have an extremely hard time holding it's value if the military has to put a gun in everyones face to force them to use it and not something else, like bartering pumpkins.

The more force you need to use to make someone believe, the less likely they are to actually believe in it.

I buy whaterver I can afford to below 1000 !

LOLOLOLOLOL

I try not to feed the trolls, but that was so hilarious I just had to laugh.

"Backed by the US military" was pretty funny too.

 :) ;) :D ;D ::)

For sure, you shouldn't buy any bitcoins.  I am however wondering what you are doing here on the forums if this is your opinion about bitcoin.  Are you perhaps talking your book?

Backed by the might of the US military? One huge dollar dump from China on the worldmarket and the USA is nothing more worth then a few islands of greece.

And let us play with bitcoin. You do that with your army patches, we with virtual money. Do we condemn you?

It's never too late to buy. At least for now, when prices are rising. But will this always be the truth?
I don't think so. Does bitcoin get stronger with all the money pumped in, or someone just want's us to believe that? What must happen for bitcoin supporters and large hoarders to lose faith? Maybe a sudden drop to 1% of current value, after NSA's supercomputer 51% attack?

It is just greed that is driving the price now, not a natural growth. Just wait, have some patience. This is Bitcoin, there are going to be dips and crashes. And if not, there will be better cryptocurrencies in the future that might even make Bitcoin obsolete, plenty of opportunities to come.

I'd rather play the bitcoin game than the stock market game, personally I'm not willing to take part in a rigged economy set up and 'controlled' by central banks and other elite financial institutions who think they own and control the world. The stock market is in for a big crash soon, they are pretty much at their top now and can't be pushed much higher anymore. Bitcoin however hasn't even begun to blossom yet. You can wait for a big correction to buy in, but there is a very good chance that bitcoin will be worth many multiple times of todays value in 2 years from now. Invest what you can miss for at least 2 years, and don't stress over short term charts.

+1

"don't stress over short term charts" - easier said than done! especially this last week!

I put a load into bitcoin in the summer just after the big crash (nothing major in the grand scheme of things). I'd done my research, and still wanna support what is shaping up to be a revolutionary way of thinking about money. At the end of the day, invest in bitcoin if you believe in its potential. If you really believe in it, now is as good a time as any. The only situation in which this is "too late" to buy is the one where all the intelligent people that post in this forum and are actively working on bringing bitcoin to the masses were misguided...but not only that, it will be the situation where the dinosaurs that run the current system manage to surpress it...against all logic, reason and humanity. I think that's worth betting against. Mankind has made its fair share of mess ups, but this is one where i'm personally betting the SUPERIOR technological system will win through! Regardless of all the political bullshit that will doubtless come its way. "Too late to buy" questions will have more relevance in 5-10 years I reckon.

Better to fret about how much to sell, than how much you could have bought ;)

Rather than trying to time the market, buy a little each week/month. You'll participate in growth and be able to take advantage of dips.

in April when btc hit $266 and crashed, those who bought for more than $140 were cursing for months.

I bet there are plenty who would gladly pony up for coins at $266 today.

This thing has not even begun to crawl yet.

thanks for the advice guys just bought in 1.5 btc at 328.31 at coinbase while my ticker gadget says its at 357.  they charge me $5 fee but it looks like they are going lose over $45 on this transaction, do you think it will still go through?

You're probably quoting from MtGox last. The rates you said are the rates that are live. I doubt they are losing anything on these rallys.

How do they do it?

I bought $40 worth from them on saturday and its now worth $70.  this is so awesome.

-Up, lol

-Now? I think either it reverses before $500 or ~$1200

-Yup, which is why I was unprepared for this. There is almost no money invested in bitcoin as much as people want to think its supported at these prices; but something like that comes out and suddenly, it might be possible.

-A billion, hehe.. uh, maybe 100k or something? But IDK that a billion would ever come in. If it goes to 10k suddenly potential gains are shrinking quite a lot, and risk the opposite. There are still people with tens of thousands of coins who could profit selling at $100, $50, $10...

now it the time to buy more than ever, the train is leaving the station

what does it mean to go-zero?

Coinbase gets coins from a variety of sources and/ or exchanges, while your ticker is probably from MtGox which is almost always higher than all other exchanges.

In a bull market it is never too late to buy ... unless you buy at the very top ... but it is prudent to wait until others are selling heavily before buying to get the best entry price. There is an old saying 'buy when there is blood in the streets'. Perhaps wait for two, three down days before buying.

Current market value: $350/BTC @ MtGox

If it "goes to zero"

Market value: $0/BTC @ [Significant places]

It depends what you are looking for....if you want a short term trade and win then its risky as btc is behaving a lot like an asset bubble.  However I think we all agree that long term btc is a winner, so in that sense you should buy asap.

My sell order went automatic at 350 and just sold all my coins in Gox...

Profit taken.

Are you trying to buy back in? You think price is dropping?

So... you now have an unredeemable electron-based note that gives you the right to lots of toilet paper that Americans currently think are valuable?  ;D

I don't plan to buy back coins as I need cash for Xmas and with gox lagging 2 months... one never knows...

I am reserved on the outcome of this as I am biased right now. The piglet inside me wants price drops so he can buy more.

Congratulations, you sold close to the top. But IMO it's a good idea to buy the incoming bottoms, there will be more ups and downs.

That'd be nice. Top at 358 would be great!

thats the only thing you can do with your great virtual dollar coupon on Mt.Broke, anyway  ;D

When you trade, on any exchange, you trade virtual fiat and virtual coins.
With virtual fiat you can buy the lows, and then sell on highs, with virtual coins you can't.

But with coins you can sell on highs, then buy the lows.  With fiat you can't.

What's your point? Do you believe that now the market will be going up?