Bitcoin Forum

Here's a strange coincidence - just when transaction revenue was all time high (source: http://imgur.com/fVnj0PV,yklZue7) the BTC guild pool luck was all time low (source: http://imgur.com/fVnj0PV,yklZue7#1)

This accounted for hundreds of BTC lost revenue for the miners.

Coincidence? What do you think?

Luck.

Ah the joy of two independent events.  No, there is nothing sinister at stake.  It can be proven as well.  BTC Guild only works over Stratum.  This means you can see the coinbase for every piece of work you're given.  In that coinbase you can clearly see that the wallet every block BTC Guild mines to is still the same (along with the Mined by BTC Guild tag).  There's no way to hide those blocks from the world or change the wallet/coinbase without miners seeing it.

I don't envy this "fun" part of your job.  The fact that it never ends has to be an added bonus.

Thanks for the clarifications. With great power comes great responsibility (and rewards)

The pay is great, but it does get a little boring having to go through the same thing any time luck takes a real nose dive.

Let's put it in simple terms though:

We had a week at something like 115% luck, including two shifts paying > 200% PPS.  Up until this morning the 5-week average was approximately 105%.  That is *unusually* high for a 5-week period.  Even with today's terrible luck, our average is *above* 104%.  That is actually a significant deviation from expectation given the size of BTC Guild and a ~5-week evaluation as far as I'm aware. 

Last week's post by organofcorti showed BTC Guild's average at 90% of difficulty (lower is better), a CDF of 2%.  That's pretty amazing.  But the downside is, people see massive rewards, then they see bad luck, and it looks *even worse* because their most recent comparison was heavily inflated above expectation.

i'm seeing weird things I don't understand myself. My 24 hour earning were .5 and soon as BTC prices increased that 24 hour earning started dropping and I have been mining there for weeks straight.

BTC prices have been increasing for the last MONTH.  Luck has been positive for almost that entire month.  You're just having selection bias that at the peak of prices (which so far are STILL going up) we happened to have a SINGLE DAY of bad luck.

But my earnings aren't increasing along with getting better luck, unless there is a catch up or lag in the system?

PPLNS is on a time delay, roughly 8 hours.  It takes 8 hours from the time a share is submitted to the time it is matured (fully paid).  Look at the chart on the PPLNS stats page and you can see its already starting to go back up.

Your 24 hour earnings will obviously not fully reflect this because the bad luck has NOT EVEN BEEN 24 HOURS.  This means right now you have *high reward* shifts rolling out of your 24 hour window (decreasing the 24-hour earnings).

Thank you. This is all new to me and I'm still learning how a pool works and why the numbers do what they do. I guess I got a little depressed when I saw a huge BTC price increase and then my pool earnings drop considerably at the same time. I never saw my earnings drop so quickly as the BTC price rose just as quick.

You gotta get it outta your head that the price of bitcoin exchange rates have anything at all to do with your rewards on your pool. Or beyond that, has anything to do with bitcoin whatsoever (other than the cerebral "wow I can pay bills with this coin" feeling)

BTCGuild is litterally the best web interface available with so many ways to view information you should really take your time to understand the dashboard and what all the 0.0000000XXX actually mean for your accumulative totals.

Furthermore - there is less variance using PPS and if you cannot get your head around making lots one day and next to nothing another day, you should just use PPS so you see your constant average build up.

But why didn't I win the lottery mommy?

this

yeah, in a few weeks this thread will be gone and we get to go through this all over again. Even if this thread is still alive someone will bring this up again in another thread just because it is easier to ask than to look.

Its all about luck. BTC guild pool network hashrate % is shrinking... last I check is about 30%...

yeah, it's been around 30% for a month or two now

I ran into the same problem myself, posted about it a couple different places so I would get different responses from different people and not the same canned responses all the time. Not one thing out there is going to show you how it works. These pools we join are all done by programmers. That programmer is the only person who knows what's going on. I hear so many people say they are making great return...then my story is the opposite. Who knows. Once it all becomes commercialization we won't have to worry about anything.

I have tried a couple different pools myself....staying on each on for a few days....I do favor one of them above the rest, but according to some of the online calculators I've tried out, i'm still making a little less than what I "should" be getting back. I've come to the conclusion that everyone is in the same boat and to compensate they just go out and buy more hashing power to make themselves feel better.

Yes, we are all in the same boat, and it is sinking. more hash power just helps us bail faster.

Its just luck, no body can control the network...

i think i shant like to be included in this boat you speak of

 i work by the numbers, not superstitions

i made great returns, my mistake was not buying a batch 1 or 2 avalon and not keeping the thousands of bitcoins i mined.    but as for the asics, there hasnt been one worth buying in over 6 mo
 
asicminer smart, sell all that shit for 3x value instead of mining with it.  gpus required a little more technical expertise, now we're open for the masses.   

bitcoins version of the transition from .edu, .gov, .mil, and the few .com shell providers to using slip/ppp on crap like AOL