Bitcoin Forum

I was thinking of the possibility of a new crash to come this weekend. Seems to me that the recent growth is too big to be sustained, it's really exponential!

https://i.imgur.com/HXlUeWP.png

hoping to buy lower now that you sold?

not gonna happen  8)

Not really hoping, I can buy anytime if this goes up in a steady pace.

Queue angry, self assured, post rationalizing Bitcoin zealot in 3....2.....1......

 8)

It is quite interesting there is little to no volume beneath it like April. Nice chart.

This is a perfect opportunity for the bulls to annihilate any remaining bears by pushing up the price on up to 500-700 before crashing. Too many people expecting it to crash like last time and the time before. What reason does it have to crash? There is no rule that says it can't increase exponentially. Bitcoin has proven us all wrong before.

It's based on Mt Gox though.

Back in April, Mtgox has 80% of all exchange volume. Not anymore...

it's not yet crash time....

Ahh, that's better. Is there a combined volume chart somewhere, or who's the leader now? Bitstamp? China?

What does it mean when there is almost no "Volume" like that?  Yet the price goes way up?

UPDATE:  does it matter if there's a combined chart?   The price is also just gox.... so the volume is just gox ...

The price has only doubled once...all other crashes came after at least 4 doubling.

Large moves with little volume show less conviction then large moves with high volume.

Can you define conviction in this context?

Twice?

Capitulation after the last crash was ~$70.  Doubled would be $140.  Doubled again would be $280.  Doubled again would be $560.  Doubled again would be $1,060.
If we hit $500 in a straight shot without a breather I would sell off some (always some, never all) and not lose sleep. If it hit $1,000 I would dump a lot more and be confident that I get another chance.

The the rise is sustained, it has set a new floor, it shows a new leg upward, etc.

However as pointed out MtGox has lost marketshare so volume is a false indicator.  We would need a chart of all exchanges combined price and volume to draw anything from it.

Well, the price has been steady for several months around $100-$125...so I see the first double at around $250.

That double took about 4 weeks. If it goes to $500 in 2 weeks then we know we are on track for $1,000 in a week after that. That is where it will become unstable.

Exponential?? WTF are yo talking about?? You need to look at 2-month chart, not a 2-year one.

http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/

Set the period to 1W and zoom in enough to only show the current year to the present. We are due a crash soon.

*edit*
Or zoom way the fuck out. Zoom anywhere. We are going to crash within a week.

A week? Haha, where are those 'single digits by Friday' statements?
With appropriate volume Gox could crash within 6 hours.
AFAIK Gox had coin traffic overload issues, both from people wanting to cash out on other exchanges,
and from others who sent coins to Gox in order to dump while price is still high (and then buy low).

posted elsewhere but I expect some sort of correction but down to the previous all time high.

I'd be shocked if we went below 200 and say "Anything below 300 is a bargain"

here is a look at bitcoinity's data for combined volume vs price:
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#ccacdfdiaa

So many markets now you'd have to dump hard on all of them at once.
Mtgox weaknesses were part of the April $266 correction.
The markets are more robust, I think crashing is a thing of the past.

I think there is some smart profit taking going on here and there for those that are conservative.
Others that are more bullish are happy to find bargains at anything under $1000.
A "crash" now is just a bitcoin Flash Sale.
My humble sentiments.

Supports my theory that the criminals have fled FINCEN registered exchanges and are now manipulating the price elsewhere. Specifically, BtcChina, where there are no trade fees and trading with oneself is encouraged through awarding shares. LOLOLOL.

Fools.

History teachs us... the crash will be very very hard and quick.

http://wscbits.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/tulip1.png

http://www.thebubblebubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/1929.jpg

Exciting times. What if we'll reach a point from which will go down like with the same velocity of going down?

As much as I would like to play around with the market again (and I really, really want to), I'm so distrustful of any 3rd party with any significant sum of bitcoin that I'm just content to hold it, spend it, or sell person to person for cash.  I don't know how people can tolerate the risk of having so much on any of the exchanges.

We hardly need to look that far back to understand that.  Many of us here have lived through bitcoin "crashes" that were harsh(er) and quick(er).

I wouldn't be scared if it went like the other times, harsh and hard down. I'd be scared if we get to 120s back in the same time it got up

i dont know why ppl compare btc to tulips. tulips cant appreciate, and cant be used for jack shit.

But can be speculated on.

Well, while I won't be surprised at all if bitcoin crashes soon - I don't feel we can compare that tulip bubble to the current bitcoin bubble, should it prove to be one.

Bitcoin has the innovation to change the world. It has many uses, speculation, store of value, medium of exchange, etc. Tulips were pure speculative hype and can't even be stored over time. Sure, this may be speculative hype but at least in theory it's backed by something with real promise. I hope to see a world where bitcoin overtakes paypal and others etc - which is 100% possible. What did the people buying those tulips think? Hopefully the speculative pressure will push up the price so they cna cahs out before the inevitable crash? Or just didn't think about it and wanted on the crazy gains train? That's my bet.

If anything, I'd say we might be looking at a dot com type bubble, and in 10 years whatever happens will look like a tiny blip. Actually, I think that was the last crash earlier this year. It crashed, but long term (ha a few months for bitcoin) has shown the stages of a bubble burst and recovery to new heights, like the tech industry stocks today. If you look at them long term, we're higher now than during that bubble.

The market is healthier now and while this may be a bubble, this is uncharted territory. Don't assume anything. But do understand bitcoins utility.

I lol'd. For a few minutes actually. Just, the absurdity of it--when I was expecting another "SERIOUS BTC CHART WITH LINES AND DATA" I got--that.

Well done.

To "contribute" to the thread: I don't know if we're going to crash, but I'm glad I bought in.

Why economists fail on understanding bitcoin.
history was always with a inflationary currency.
This one is a deflationary one :) that's why all stats will fail here ,, dollar is inflationary since the beginning  it was baked by a Limited supply of gold but at that time nobody knew how much this was precisely! and even now we don't know the amount of ounces gold in
planet earth! 
But,,, with bitcoin it will be 21.000.000 so , its a known constant! we are currently at 11925350 btc so that's also known... and that's why it does what it does.
its the first time in history that we know the total of supply available on forehand to a currency system.
 

Oh noes, I sold more (voluntarily this time) and guess what. Price will boom now! Up to the skies!

And the Chinese did not start to become major buyers of Holland's tulips.

Why does it have to be on the "exchanges"?  Why can't it sit in your wallet?

What are you people talking about?

https://i.imgur.com/vXKFNHh.png

 ;)

the people who are saying that a huge crash isn't likely to occur (on the scale of last april, at least).. seem to have a plausible explanation. but then again, how can anything sustain this amount of growth without "growing pains"? coins have nearly quadrupled in a 2-3 week span.. that is nuts!

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%20bubble&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q

(note that we are in the begging of this month)

There can certainly be a pullback. 10-15% or so would actually be healthy.

But with China going ballastic and with the media attention of the run up, I would suspect that a lot of fresh $$$ will come into the USD exchanges on Tuesday (Monday is a holiday).

bitcoinity ftw!

Limited supply with growing demand and increasing distrust of fiat = price keeps rising. There is nothing mysterious or unsustainable about this.

Bitcoin is unique, there has never been anything like it before. If it ends up becoming a major economic power then the insane rewards we are earning right now is our reward for helping to make it happen.

Nice! i like that pera, well done

still doesn't explain how it can grow that big, that fast.. without being "corrected." a 400% return on investment in 2-3 weeks is quite.. a lot.

There have been small corrections.

What China is doing right now is the first thing I have seen that looks parabolic. But the other exchanges are not following.

The reason it matters should be fairly obvious. Say there is an exchange with 5% of the volume of Gox. The price will still be roughly the same! Simply because of arbitrage with other exchanges. In Bitcoin world, a spread of 8-12% might not be uncommon, but it's not like they're wildly running in opposite directions.

So a price of $375 on an exchange with a tiny amount of volume compared to April is not a bad sign if, say, there is another exchange with a more reasonable amount of volume (i.e. all gox's volume are belong to China) compared to April and the same or similar price.

In order to accurately judge volume over time against the price, in a situation such as this where exchange volume has shifted quite significantly since April, we'd have to see combined volume, virtually regardless of which exchange's price we were using.

So we might look at Gox volume now vs april, and we look at BTCchina and BitStamp volume now vs. April. Now we can see why there is a problem with just looking at the volume of one exchange over such a long time period!  Then we look at all the other exchanges too. Then the fucking permabear peanut gallery starts piping in "But China has 0% trading so their volume is fake, and therefore their price is fake, and chinese fake all their statistics, and BTCChina doesn't even exist, and blah blah blah, and blah blah blah."

Oh, peanut gallery.

EDIT: Oh, and since I opened the Volume can of worms - The combined volume chart @ Bitcoinity covers all known online exchanges - but there is also the possibility that a lot of the "big money" that has been entering Bitcoin has been doing so via other avenues. One could say that this would eventually be reflected in the major exchanges, but not necessarily. Big investors might find the resources to buy directly from miners ('clean coin' concerns) and this volume might not find its way to the exchanges. Then the miners would have less to sell to the exchanges, lowering supply, and supply and demand, blah blah blah. OTOH, this might be insignificant. But don't dismiss either high or low volume without considering all possibilities.

At some point, the general consensus becomes "this thing is going up way too fast. it's going to crash".

I think we've been there for a few days.

But then, it keeps going up... Maybe it's disbelief that the super obvious thing ("we're going to crash!") could be so obvious, and yet it still hasn't crashed... this creates doubt, so we wait a little longer, unwilling to take the plunge of cashing out. Maybe we do sell a few coins, but not all of them...

At some point (I think we are there this weekend) the only people buying are the crazy people (who trust their BTC/cash to these somewhat shady exchanges) while the more sober of us sit out and watch bitcoinity in disbelief. A lot of these people probably sold already, and are buying back in at a loss, because they're crazy.

BTC is now at $4B market cap. These tiny exchanges did not get $2B in cash deposits in the last few weeks. It's just a small group of crazy traders driving this thing up, and once enough of them panic, this thing is going down hard.

I wish we could get a meme going, like "the moon is $400!", so we could make this crash happen sooner and not cause as much damage as the last one.

But yeah, it's going to crash. Very soon.

bitstamp is loosing it. Gox has enough support, but bitstamp isweak. hope that changes when the majority of EUrope wakes up

Bitstamp was about 2mil bids pre-bubble.

It went to ~$800k in the SR drop.

Its now $5mill and has been since like $200.

Gox is steadily rising in bids, but not nearly quickly enough. A correction is certain.. a crash? Not unlikely...

Before calling exponential, please start by using a log chart.  Compared to the 2 previous bubble, we are just in the begining..  long way to go before pop !

not really:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328855.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328855.0)

The bubble you are seeing is the FIAT bubble.
You are looking in the mirror.
Why economists fail on understanding Bitcoin?
history was always with a inflationary currency.
This one is a deflationary one that's why all stats will fail here ,, dollar is inflationary since the beginning it was baked by a Limited supply of gold but at that time nobody knew how much this was precisely! and even now we don't know the amount of ounces gold in
planet earth!
But,,, with Bitcoin it will be 21.000.000 so , its a known constant! we are currently at 11925350 BTC so that's also known... and that's why it does what it does.
its the first time in history that we know the total of supply available on forehand to a currency system.

" until some Bitcoin holders are willing to part with their Bitcoins?"
Or PART of their bitcoins , dont forget that 1 bitcoin is fungible in 100.000.000 units!
so they only need to spend smaller parts to buy and keep the system running

It's true. I can feel the weight of 2 billion dollars of new market cap and a bearish divergence on the chart. Even if you look at the log chart the current slope is way too high and fast even by bubble standards. We are due for a major high volume correction. There are historically several of these during each bubble. $300 is likely.

The corrections we have seen so far have been childs play - caused by 500-2K sells. They recover not because there is support but because the seller stopped. What happens when there are 5K sells, or 20K sells.

When the right price will be reached, there could be a mass sale of 100k.
But that 'right price' could be 500$ or more, if 385$ wasn't the very peak.

I'm not talking about THE crash but the several intermediate 150K corrections that happen during each bubble.

I'm not sure what you mean by '150k correction', that could take us down to 50$.
A 'normal' correction that should happen very soon could go down to 300$, maybe 280$ (fingers crossed  ;D).

Oops I mean a 150K volume down day. Not one gigantic dump.

Well, so far volume has been low, not sure what to infer from this.
On the 24th October the volume was very high, maybe today the most volume is still to come?

Yes I guess Oct 24 is a good example. Since there are multiple major exchanges now the volume required is less than 150K on each.  Silk road day is another good example.  We are due for another one now.

19:04 Sat (CST) - Time in China
People are going out , eating enjoying.
The volume was early in day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#rg1ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I was talking about the volume on Gox being low so far, I see that volume in China was high.
Because the climb on Gox (to 378$) was underwhelming, the rebound ended up higher (385$) than the theoretical peak.
If Gox would have had better volume, the peak should have been closer to 400$.

What I do is thake the chinise then take exchange rate of CNY and translate that to $ or euro

Because then it's not on an exchange and can't be liquidated quickly and be as responsive to market moves.

The old wait-for-three/six-confirmations problem. :)

Proudhon's right, if you're going to gamble on shortening your position rather than just hold (i.e. sell to bet on downward price action hoping to buy in lower), you probably need to plan in advance of that action, especially given that the major exchanges are, despite using computer technology, pretty much 17th-century-standard trading platforms. (Bitcoin is still young, folks! ;D )

Oh noes... I sold some more here at 394. (also bought back at 370 those I sold at 350, cause I needed to buy a nice restaurant dinner).

I see two possible scenarios:

1. going up more, in which case people are happy cause they got my coins, I am happy cause I was poor on paper
2. crash, in which case people will be sad and I will be sad cause I'm gonna loose again fiat.

That's how I'm doing it too, I managed to get some more fiat in at the 260$ mark which i've been slowly pulling back out. I managed to correct a stupid trading mistake from last week that cost me 0.6 btc by stuffing more fiat in there and riding this rise.. so soon i'll have pulled all the fiat i just put in and will have the original amount of BTC i had before my poor trading also with some fiat on the side .. just in case we hit an asteroid on the way to the moon

I really hope we can go to 500 but... who knows...

In China, a local drop in money flow should reach a bottom in about an hour, could be the start of a correction.

what do you mean?

I mean that when a correction is expected, and the money flow index is at a local low, it's a good time for a correction to start.
If the correction is about to end, then a local low in money flow is a good time to buy back, because is going to go up again.

This "low volume" you speak of...?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#rg360zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#rg360zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv)

https://i.imgur.com/T0pQHA7.png (http://imgur.com/T0pQHA7)

overall bitcoin volume is much lower than in april.

You also have other USD exchanges taking a bigger slice of the pie relative to the 266 high...

BTC-E another ~$10m http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv)
Bitstamp another ~$10-15m http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv)

How much lower?

Again, still the amount of Bitcoins traded is much lower than in April.

look it stands out like a sore thumb...
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaaafjaa

Sorry, cross posted before your reply - the question remains - how much lower BTC volume?

I'm not so sure about that if you compare the volume just before the April crash with current volumes, the volume is just shared over more exchanges. The price of bitcoin is also much higher, and obviously you would expect that the volume during a crash like we saw in April would be very high. Once the coins return to the exchanges we will definitely see record volumes, even in bitcoin at these prices.

Ah, ok scratch that - I see from your chart...

You can't even read the charts right. Bitcoin volume (not USD) during the entire month of April including crash is only 50% higher than the October volume. We're not even halfway through November yet so we can't compare those numbers right now, and we haven't seen a crash so far. Seriously you don't know what you're talking about and what you're comparing.

Even the rise had bigger volume in April
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#ccacdfejaa

e: apparently not you are right that is part of the crash.
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#ccacdfejaa

Thats a nice tool. Your monthly volume, I grant you is lower, I think at that granularity it misses something though. Looking at weekly volume's I'm not so sure its as clear cut as you imply.

Look at the volume in the whole run up to 260, vs the volume now, that big peak in April, thats the correction and churn following the run up.

The underlying assumption about BTC volume is what puzzles me most though, if the BTC price in fiat is much lower, then of course the same amount of currency, is going to move a lot more BTC volume.

I think the amount of fiat being moved around the BTC market is a more important indicator of the relative 'trade volume' compared to April no?

To be clear, I expect a correction at some point, despite any of my other 'to da moon' posts I may have made (gotta enjoy it when its going well!). I just don't think you can say this move isn't supported by volume based on the data I have seen so far.

Bah quit beating me to it you bloody whippersnappers ;)

Looks lower to me:

https://i.imgur.com/grKEOcr.png

And remember this is with 0 Fee China inflating it quite a bit. Not people trading on high-fee Gox, like April.

Not sure why people are saying "monthly volume" you guys do know the charts all share the same url right?  Click on price & volume and daily and you can see daily volume across all exchanges.

Should I buy back now? Sold at the price of 394 out of 395.

The market already answered: wait for the bottom.

I wonder if this bottom will be prolonged or just a flash crash.

If this is going to be similar to the drop from 217$ to 177$, then it's going to look like a tumbling knife and take about a day to drop to the bottom.

Funny that it started on Gox, and I had expected it in China, but I forgot that China was still asleep, and very low volume.

Huge crash coming soon.

If all american and  chinese started selling... price is go down to 100$ easily in a day.

problem is all american and  chinese are buying not selling

Just a few. It's like inbreeding. Some groups buy buy buy but they all have to sell at some point.

If  you use it to side step the $  economy why selling , only if you need to buy stuff , but if value increases less of bitcoin you need to spend :)
The soled bitcoin parts  will come free for a higher fiat price.
 

If this selloff breaches 340 we're doomed. 340 is 24hrs low.

yep this next crash will bring us to within $50 of the previous all time high

sell sell sell

I fell asleep waiting for further drops and just woke up. This doesn't look like a replay of the 217$ to 177$ drop.
But so far I haven't seen the avalanche of coins required to pop the bubble, so I'm not sure (and sleepy, it's about 2 AM, my time).

We're close to a retest of 340. Hold your finger crossed, if that helps.

Best chart yet!

Crash is over. Double bottom short term. Now buy.

EDIT: Bought in at 346.

he said. and then it went down again   ::)

Of course, it's my master skill. Good thing is I have more coins. Bad news, could have even more.

This is gaining momentum. I cancelled my buy order at 280$, waiting to see how deep it goes.

308!

so we should just do the opposite of what you say?  ;D

could still be a good buy now, 300 is fighting hard and seems to win

By the way, THIS proved to me that this market is too volatile to be in it other than with long bitcoins.

There's too much speculation and I am affraid bitcoin is just that: a purely speculative instrument, and a very profitable one. Nothing else. Scattered poker games, transactions but no real economy. Wake me up from my hibernation when we have some killer app or interest in BTC as store of value.

Oh noes...We're back. Good thing I didn't panicked and sold at 300!

it's all there. just stop trading for fiat unless you want to gamble a bit.
it's a trader/speculators wet dream.
10 cans of redbull per day and refresh button

Sweet mother of god it's moving all over the place and doing it quickly.

yes, my only goal is more BTC. And I play fun and safe.

Its jumping around, but it is good for making some profit in short time.

The thing is, if I cannot count bodies and all after this crash is over, and we are not going to at least 280, I have the feeling bitcoin will make a massive leg upwards.

340? oh that's like so 30 seconds ago!

Don't let them shake you out... The price is going up

It's actually a very good thing in the end. Beats some sense into people. We need periods of stagnation like after this thing goes down and then back up to 150$ or something. When price sits in one spot people start to move their hardware around, come with other ideas, place is thriving in other ways. But when bubble keeps growing - everyone goes mad and refresh btc price all day and night, leaving other important matters out. Only good thing coming from these bubbles is a flow of new souls willing to depart with their money.

Doomed I tell you.  Bitcoins might only be worth what they were worth three days ago.  Hold me back or I might just throw myself out a first floor window.


http://www.medary.com/images/articles/20100209092523145_1.jpg

LOOLLL Only good thing coming from these bubbles is a flow of new souls willing to depart with their money.

Poor sools

lol! Sad, but probably true for a few folks.

Looks like we'll go deeper. How deep, this is the scary question.

Most were saying the same thing when silk roads had an effect.Trends (https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q) still indicate that the interest is only half as much as April of this year,so still find the current price to be still unusual.It's bullish,but I'd be cautious still.

We are now in an ascending sub-sub-wave, so obviously for now we can't crash further.
But it remains to be seen if the uptrend will resume, after the next sub-sub-wave it should be clear.

IF we don't see soon a sustained recovery to 380$ and beyond, then another ~100$ drop will start.

Calm down, the price just went down a bit. The drop would be even smaller if not for all those panic losers. China looks quite stable, looking at their market I wouldn't even call it a crash.

You misunderstood me. I was calm, since I had sold at 350$ before posting.
My point was that the market could have chosen to go up to maybe 500$, but IMO now we are going down again.

Shall we sell now? I think it is the crash and will keep dropping

Just hold for a few weeks, if it's a crash it'll come back up. Unless you're dying and need some cash.

No, don't panicsell.

It will take a lot of scared sheeple to drop the price further, but if you look at the ask sum of btc china bitstamp and gox youll see there are almost no BTC to buy under 380.
This is all a ruse to get the weak hands to let go of more BTC.    I think.

I 'm with you with the calm part (up to a point of course) but how exactly China looks stable?The price in China moves in the same way ike gox, stamp etc...

not really all that impressed with this "crash."  If it goes under $200, then yeah, otherwise, I think the trend continues.

Now is the time for the Second Mouse rally.

I chickened out @ 280 (bitstamp) and bought in. Thought about rejoining the dropping but after reading your posts it isn't worth it. Looking at the order book someone could flashbuy it into and drive the price much higher. Waiting for tomorrow where I get a little fresh money.

Everyone is just dumping into a solid wall now. It's going to be really slow and now worth the risk.

Yeah, if you look at last day it seems bad but if you consider weekly or monthly movement it still looks like a boom to me. If the price goes below what we had a week ago (200$) I will consider it a crash. Right now its just a typical correction before another rise. It may happen tomorrow or in a month but it will happen. You don't really lose anything unless you convert to fiat.
People are usually shortsighted and think in simple terms: yesterday it was 300 today 250 - I lost money!.


It looked more stable for a few hours but I guess the gox panic made them unsure of the price. Good time to buy IMO.

Jesus christ guys, seriously...

Be a little bit more responsible. Your investments increased in value by over 100 percent in a week. Now there's a BABY correction (On a weekend, no less) and you shit your pants

I think the tendency has change and obviously it will keep going down the next days. If you are in the trade mood... sell and buy lower. Otherwise hold till the we catch again this prices in a couple of months.

I suppose it is the stable price of bitcoin anymore:) There won't be crash i hope and it will keep rising day by day

My outlook hasn't changed. It was obvious that we needed a nice correction. I managed to make a couple coins from it, but I've been back all in since several hours ago. We could go lower, sure, but I think we will rally higher in fairly short order.  :)

best crash ever, we've crashed above the previous ath.

It seems we are due to a larger leg up. Maybe starting this monday or tuesday, after some rest time for our athlete here.

:o LOL!!~~~

I still believe we will start a decent towards $330 or lower.

how do you guys buy the bitcoins fast enough when they are low like that? it's impossible.. they crash and stay low for maybe 20-30 minutes, and by the time you have the chance to buy, it's back up to 330. liquidity is an issue for me.

is it possible for a securities exchange?

It is called a limit order.  All you need is a single trade at or below your limit price.

What is a securities exchange?

Divide your assets into groups. Use part of it to set up buy orders with different prices to cover a certain range, eg. if the price is 300$ buy for 298, 295, 290, and so on. It's kind of like fishing, you wake up next day and see what you got.  ;D

Will work with normal stocks , but will it with bitcoin :)
Doubt it , reason is you can not buy back your own bitcoins
, yes you will have dollar but nobody want to trade bitcoins with you  , most exchanges report empty :)
and wait until price restores :)
And in holland people can do Ideal witch is INSTANT!
but most sellers will not reload bitcoins , so after getting 300 btc you r gone , and dumping 300 btc on the market is not very impressive :)
 

this is how i do it. i was only able to get 13 coins this "crash" because the exchange i use has very few users / low volume. your basically getting coins off people who think its going to crash more. (weak hands)

Conspiracy theory: the ddos is trying to prevent Gox from crashing.
China may have enough steam to go up further, but if Gox and Bitstamp would crash,
then the rise in China would be limited. So if the ddos denies access to Gox (and Bitstamp?)
long enough for China to go up again, then the others will try to follow.

Has it ever happened that Gox got DDoSed, but DIDN'T crash after that?

What's with the whole "fulfilled" ? lol. When the price is higher a day after your "great crash" and a new all time high, you sound like an idiot.

That is why you don't dump 300 BTC. I mostly buy to hold for some time and then sell it in small numbers as the price goes up. Never had problems or loses with this strategy and probably won't unless BTC goes down more than 50%.

Would be safe to say that the crash is over and we can continue the rally? Anyway, I am more and more convinced that if we can break 400, 500 will be easy.

No, wait for another 1 - 2 hours, let's see what happens.

Agreed on the latter. But a crash? Come on, this wasn't a crash... a crash is something devastating when afterwards many people lose their entire confidence in the market and walk away. This was a mere correction, albeit a violent one, as it is quite typical in bitcoin world right now.

I think you're right, "crash" was not the best word to use at it might imply very long periods of low prices. When I say crash I mean an important correction from which we recover after a week or so.

If you'd only said "crash", I would've simply ignored the wording. But your thread title reads "Great New Crash" -- this leaves me between a chuckle and an incredulous shake of my head ;)

Crash is when several whales compete to dump their 50,000btc each. Back in april there was 100,000btc dumped in the 60s in a matter of minutes.

This is hilarious.  I could see calling April a crash since bitcoin lost 75% of its value and took about 4 months to recover.  That's a crash.  Haven't see one of those lately and with the decreased volatility every day and buy and hold becoming so prevalent, I doubt we are going to see any more of those.

It will happen eventually.  All markets crash when price runs away from reality.   

Sorry.  Missed an "m".  Meant to say, "many" more of those.

You can't DDOS Mt. Gox anymore to affect 80% of the market.  It happened this week and everyone yawned and the price continued to rise slowly.

That's my point.

Because the trading engine was kaput?

Or was the ddos before that?

You are exaggerating. I wasn't into bitcoin in April, but I studied the charts and looked again just now.
There were multiple dumps of a few thousands of coins each, not even close to 50k, and over several hours, not minutes.
So a massive crash like April does not require several 50k whales to dump, just a bunch of smaller whales and many panic sellers.

That means you didn't see the Gox lag of several hours then. I suppose the initial dumps were done very quickly, afterwards the Gox interface pretty much didn't load at all. You might want to watch the timelapse video of the crash ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nanesJ0bLrQ might not be the best one, but the first one I've found). And close to the lows there were indeed several 100k BTC dumped... Who knows whether by whales or by smaller fish...

Here is the chart, IMO proving that the big crash was started by relatively small whales and lasted about 24 hours before the ddos.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=5&i=30-min&c=1&s=2013-04-10&e=2013-04-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

Why would you dump lots in seconds when you can keep the price higher by dumping small portions? Of course 24hrs seems a lot reasonable if you want to cash out.

Crash is not the best word to use, so change the thread title to "correction."

Great New Correction I can live with.

Or, remove the word great and keep "Crash."

You could stretch and call what just happend a "Crash" (crash to a new ATH, lol) but by absolutely no definition of the word was it GREAT!!!

Think of some things we call "Great." The Great Depression. The Great Wall of China. Alexander the Great. This was not great! It was just a big correction. 

 ::) ::) ::)

Only unless you don't want to cash out.
Dump 10000 BTC and put in buy orders directly after to get your money back.
People in panic will start dumping their coins cheap.

When this crashes, it will crash hardcore. It's insane!

It will crash locally, but it will rebound a bit. This is just a consequence of more money on Gox than at the theoretical peak,
which drives price up, and still plenty of bullishness. Those buying so high will get burned IMO.

That's why I sold my whole "temporal stash" today. Everyone went crazy with the prices while China still is below the point of last correction.

China still is below the point of last correction?

On the 9th bid prices were above 2600 CNY, today it just passed 2500. Gox had $350 tops and its $390, it's a fake hype IMO.

The more excuberance, the better the crash.

I was thinking of the possibility of a new crash to come this weekend. Seems to me that the recent growth is too big to be sustained, it's really exponential!

https://i.imgur.com/RogpcNm.png

So, based on this chart and the current pace where do you guesstimate it would land up? Below 250 ?

I don't know where it could crash to, but I think it will top at about 500-520.

Just use Logcharts... there was no big crash in the last 2 years.

http://abload.de/img/crashfherv.jpg

266 to 60 is not big?

IMO it already lost momentum, but it appears there are still some crazy buyers willing to get burned.
Once a clear downtrend will become apparent, tens of thousands of coins will show up.
Probably China is going to experience a crash similar to the one in April, and others will follow.

Depends on the perspective: the lowest low at 50 was 3-4 times higher than the level before the rally started (let's say about 15 USD). The stabilization level was around 100, give or take, which was around 7 times the beginning level of the rally. And both are still significantly higher (1.5x and 3x respectively) than the previous all time high.

So everyone who bought in January had at least 3x more fiat if they sold on the bottom of the crash. This continuous grows makes crashes or big correction look weird in BTC world. Maybe they would look like crashes if we subtracted (well, divided by) the average exponential growth curve ;)

I agree that we are probably a bit above the logarithm line now.  So it will eventually correct.  I could see a drop from $500 to $400 pretty easily, which puts us back in line.  If we go far below the line it could even get to $3xx.  But it probably would only stay there for a couple weeks.

im all in and will keep riding this, but im not convinced of the logic that the bottom has to be above the previous ATH.

Me too, people are eager to buy cheap, and once the panic starts, the price can go down like dominoes.

lol thats funny

Hello Billy! I love it when I'm right!