Bitcoin Forum

Over the past few hours, BTC's value dropped from around $360 to $318 and still dropping.

What do you think the cause is?  Do you think its going to keep dropping or is it yet to boom and why?

Just curious and wondering what the community thinks.

This usually happens when it rises too quickly.  I know Silkroad 2 was back up and running.  There was likely a rush for people to buy bitcoins so they can start purchasing on it...so after that died down...it would make sense for bitcoin to fall.

What are the future predictions?  Many people claim its yet to double?  I don't think it will.  Or will it?  And why?

I doubt it's a bubble. We might see a small correction down to the upper 200's / lower 300's but not lower than that. Just my opinion.

After watching the wall for about an hour i think we will see a correction soon

also is .01 transaction fee a lil much now?Its like $3..Who collects those fees?

miners

It's more like $0.03. You can get by with a 0.0001 btc fee and still have the network relay it to everyone.

Bankers don't work weekends; with all the newbies who don't know the money stops flowing, they're surprised by the fall in price as we head in to sunday.  If it weren't for china, I should think we'd rise every morning and crash every night!

Think some people were selling a bit to take advantage of the new higher prices, they jumped quite a bit really fast.  Looks like there's some support in the mid to high 200's and more in the lower 200's as well.  Let's see what happens with the selling pressure though.

WTF, really?! Silk Road has absolutely no bearing on the Bitcoin price what so ever! I am truly amazed how many people think that SR, in any way dictates the price of Bitcoin!

wow its sinking......hold on.... GOING UP........No... wait a minute......now DOWN ....within matter of minutes. should be an interesting night
Looks like it could drop like a rock into the upper 200's crazy to see tomorrow
It should be going stabilize back at 230- I hope

+1 no sleep tonight  ;D

I'm not worried. I'm a long-term believer. I love the price swings for my day trades. Up about 20% today (on my overall BTC-value)!

Yawn. Going to bed now. Wake me up in a few years and bitcoin will be either thousands or pennies. What happens in-between is just irrelevant detail.

For noobs :


Value != price

Fundamental hasnt changed, and there are no news.

This is what we call "shake-off" weak hands.

took 60,000 btc on gox to drive up price from 300 to 400ish
took 15,000 btc to knock it down to 300 ish
... it's going up.

Considering people can't remove money from gox, it seriously has only one way to go.  Back up...

exactly

Also fiat money are still moving into the exchanges due to recent good news, it just takes abit longer thanks to banking system

Normal reaction after a rise like this. Unexperienced day-traders panic and sell their stash even with a lose...
I hope we will consolidate a bit just above $250-260, finding a higher bottom and staying around the $300 mark maybe shows that a stable BTC can contribute to profit for many businesses.

We are still in a Bullish market, but everything on earth gets attracted by earth gravity, maybe afterwards a new impulse can make it fly to the moon (and not come back).  8)  

this kinda sucks for me.. prices dive and recover so fast that it's way too difficult to play the game of arbitrage, at least for me. selling isn't a problem, as you  can use the coin to buy goods or services (like gift cards), but finding someone willing to buy from is such an arduous task.

finally a topic about the crash without all caps in the tile  8)

Fully agree (any effect this may have will be very small)

i disagree.. how many millions worth of bitcoins went through SR? it's a huge market.. i'm not saying the impact is extremely significant, but bitcoins serve a function for SR/online drug trade that no other currency does. SR going down probably had little effect on BTC because even though it curbs online drug supply in the short-term, there's still a big demand in the long run (which will be fulfilled by new sites that pop up). i think the value held strong because it proved that SR is not the only force that is making BTC valuable.

But the millions that do go through, are over time, and not all bought up in a few days.
I would also think silk road v2.0 will take time to get up to speed, as i cant see people trusting it immediately + the people that buy from there will likely have some left that they were going to send on silk road v1.0.
Yes i agree it will have some effect, but i think it will be very small, hardly noticeable and not responsible for the recent peak in bitcoin price, not the current drop.

+ most the bitcoins spent on silkroad (1 or 2) will get converted back to fiat (as large drug suppliers shoot people for trying to pay in anything other than gold, dollars or diamonds  :P), so this should cancel out any effects there are of people buying coins to spend on drugs.

But i agree, that know one truly knows....

Where do you get such crazy numbers from? These seem like baloney.

You can't arb if you can't open a chinese account and move fiat from/to China in a few hours. That's the problem, not chart movements.

I agree.  The guy became the second-largest holder just from the fees on the site.  Hardly "nothing".

tomorrow I expect fireworks as all the fiat appears on the exchanges and people see an opertunity to buy in cheaper. :-)

Tomorrow is a banking holiday in the US in celebration of Veterans day.  I am not sure how this will affect things here though.

The long term trend is strongly up.

We fell below the long term trend line by staying relatively stable for several months after the April crash.  There was good press starting about 5 weeks ago, and once it started going up, speculation drove it up too fast.  Speculators trade on momentum and therefore tend to overreact and cause large price swings. 

Now we've had a nice little correction and seem to have entered a period of consolidation, moving sideways for a while.  I think this correction is over, and we probably won't see much more downward movement soon.

I would like to see some sideways movement or slow increase to establish a nice base, but I'm guessing we will probably see a sharp rise instead.  The Monday U.S. banking holiday might delay that, since new investment dollars cannot move from U.S. bank accounts until Tuesday.

The sharper the rise, the bigger the correction, so I would like to see a more sustainable growth rate.

Because of the volatility, you would think you could make a lot of money by short-term trading in Bitcoin.  However, that requires being in fiat much of the time, which means you tend to miss the big run ups like those of the past few days.  "Buy and hold" turns out to work much better. 

I suggest investing 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin, then holding no matter what happens.  If the trend continues, it will be worth 7X in 1 year, 50X in 2 years, 350X in 3 years, 2400X in 4 years, etc.

It can still correct further down, I've seen no aggressive buying yet except for a spike when BTCChina dipped to 1900 ($312). I could see those values being retested the coming hours/days, and even a further drop to 1600 ($262) is possible. I don't think this pullback will take months like the post-April crash, but one or two weeks with BTC hovering somewhere between 200 and 300 before it takes off towards the moon again is not unlikely. On the other hand this could also be just a (planned) weekend dip, and aggressive buying could begin just before the banks open up again tomorrow. Personally I'm not going to take any chances and have already bought back the BTC I sold with some profit and will sit this out. I'd like to be able to sleep and do other things for a while. :P

This is my strategy also....everything in between is just white noise.

It's a conspiracy... and a good one for once! lol

AFAIK SilkRoad stuff and the like, accounts for less than 5% of BTC transactions.. I dont think this kind of activity affect the price at all !