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Title: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: Nagle on November 12, 2013, 04:46:48 AM This runup is clearly being driven by buying activity from China. BTC China is now the biggest exchange. Bitcoins provide a legal (more or less) way to convert yuan to dollars or euros. (This normally requires permission from the State Administration for Foreign Exchange.)
But why is the runup so fast? Possibly because there aren't enough dollars flowing into the Bitcoin exchanges to satisfy the demand from sellers in China. People in China who want to convert yuan to dollars or euros don't intend to stay in Bitcoins for long. But they don't care what the Bitcoin exchange rate is, only what the yuan-Bitcoin-dollar exchange rate is for the brief period they're in Bitcoins. Hm. Title: Re: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: odolvlobo on November 12, 2013, 05:01:24 AM This runup is clearly being driven by buying activity from China. BTC China is now the biggest exchange. Bitcoins provide a legal (more or less) way to convert yuan to dollars or euros. (This normally requires permission from the State Administration for Foreign Exchange.) But why is the runup so fast? Possibly because there aren't enough dollars flowing into the Bitcoin exchanges to satisfy the demand from sellers in China. People in China who want to convert yuan to dollars or euros don't intend to stay in Bitcoins for long. But they don't care what the Bitcoin exchange rate is, only what the yuan-Bitcoin-dollar exchange rate is for the brief period they're in Bitcoins. Hm. What is the difference between the dollar/yuan and dollar/bitcoin/yuan exchange rates? Title: Re: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: bitcoin carpenter on November 12, 2013, 05:09:29 AM 350 usd for 1 btc =btc china 2390 cny=397 usd
Title: Re: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: BitPirate on November 12, 2013, 06:00:27 AM This doesn't make a lot of sense. There are easier ways to convert to USD in China -- if for some bizarre reason you wanted to bet on a losing horse. Each individual gets a 50k USD allowance to convert at the bank too. After that, there are unlicensed money changers.
I agree the arbitrage gap may be reflective of suppressed international money flow, but the runup is pure speculation. Furthermore the "largest exchange" assertion is flawed... by volume, yes. By actual money flow in and out, who knows? the 0 fee is likely skewing the numbers somewhat. Title: Re: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: N12 on November 12, 2013, 06:06:41 AM Have you figured out the endgame (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=55024.msg654720#msg654720)yet? Have you bought in yet?
Title: Re: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: balanghai on November 12, 2013, 06:11:14 AM Lacking of USD would also be an issue. Surely surge will come in in the few weeks.
Title: Re: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: bitgold on November 12, 2013, 06:15:20 AM AFAIK, no Chinese exchange deals with $, dollar is never in the picture.
If you were talking about exchanges outside China, for most Chinese, it's very difficult to jump all the loops to open an exchange account overseas. Bank account is even more difficult. So, no. Title: Re: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: aminorex on November 12, 2013, 07:19:51 AM it doesn't take many corrupt cadres t9 buy all the btc 8n china, but it does take a lot of sock puppets.
Title: Re: Is this runup being driven by a lack of dollars for conversion from yuan? Post by: oakpacific on November 12, 2013, 07:25:16 AM Anyone who thinks Chinese have difficulties obtaining USDs must have never been there(Hint: we don't always do things according to the law), but again it's more bullshit from the OP.
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