Bitcoin Forum

I know some of you think the coins have shifted hands and there are no longer any such whales or none that are willing to ever dump. I also know that in the past the whales wait for higher ATHs and for support to grow before dumping.

However, for purposes of discussion, let's say they went completely out of phase and surprised us by starting to dump 500,000 btc right now. Where would support be? Where would the bulls really dig their war trenches in?

Based on the walls I think about $150.

god damn why this forums is so full of idiots.

I hope you made this thread when you're high

You could extend this kind of paranoia to nearly any market..

More importantly where are the coins coming from? And how would you spread across all exchanges evenly?

Why so much hostility? I didn't say this was going to happen. Most likely it won't. I'm just curious as to what price this hard support level is at right now, which will absorb an unlimited amount of selling.

You mean if Satoshi himself woke up from his grave and started dumping? I don't think all the bulls present and future would save us.

Didn't you realize? Those who dare question the strength of the bitcoin market (even hypothetically) are guilty of practicing cryptocurrency blasphemy and shunned around here. Too many people on this forum and on reddit have a financial stake in bitcoin and are thereby led by their emotions.

I'd imagine if Satoshi unloaded his hoard of bitcoins all at once it would bring buy levels down to zero temporarily, as it ran through each buy order one by one (that is, if it didn't outright crash the markets).

Not all in one market order but over the course of a day or two like in April.

This is a really strange hypothetical to me but if they were to dump 500,000 coins then I'm sure the price would be really really low.  For them to dump all 500,000 coins at once with no regard to price would mean they are forced to get rid of them for cheap cheap cheap.  It would be a firesale, where every coin must go.    

Afterwards the price would creep back up to where it is now because lets face it, we all love owning BTC.

Definitely in the lower double digits. $30-40 I'd imagine.

Best case high double digits. 500,000 is way too many, even across all primary exchanges and 2 days.

This would be bad. Or would it? I'd sell my testicles in order to buy and buy fast... but then again a drop from 400 to 30 might look bad lol... might take a while to recover from that.

Then again again, if you have a whole horde of people like me selling their intimate body parts in order to buy this cheap bitcoin, it'd probably go from 400 to 30 to 850 in a span of 3 days.

Only one way to find out.

500,000 BTCs dump is for wimps! 10 million BTCs dump would be way cooler, oh wait.....

In such an extreme case, you couldn't talk about support at a certain level, because the volatility would be huge.
Based on historical data, I'd guesstimate a drop to 20$, followed by a rebound to 40$ and further drops to 10$ - 15$.
And if the very low price would persist for months, most speculators would leave for good, it could be the end of bitcoin.
So, big whales, please think twice before dumping too many coins. Cheaper coins are nice for bears, but not that cheap.

Jeez look at all these bears saying "double digits", "$0", "the end of bitcoin". Nobody is getting angry at them. I said $150! I guess I'm actually the most bullish person here.

Indeed. What do you think would happen if someone market sold 1/42 (2.4%) of all outstanding shares of any company (including XOM)?

It would be the best thing to ever happen to Bitcoin. Massively more equal distribution of coins, causing a massive price rise shortly after.

Bring it on!! ;D

The FBI could very well do this in such a stupid manner with their BTC 174,000.  Everyone else is too smart not to crash it.

So how about the case against DPR is over and the FBI sells their 174,000 at market?  This is the only realistic possibility close to the OPs question.

i bet there is a bunch of people up the pyramid already deciding who willl get the sr stash to keep. i doubt that gov will dump those coins into exchanges... ultra rich folk with tight connections are also looking for slice of the pie.

Are you from the US?  If not, I think you don't understand the gross stupidity of FBI auctions.  If you happen to catch one, sportscars can be had for 10 cents on the dollar.  I met a guy with a Lamborghini once and talked to him.  He got it from an FBI auction for $50,000.

Yes, they are that stupid just to dump them on the exchanges all at once.

I expect that the price would be pushed very low and bounce back to about 80% very quickly.
We'd be back where we are now within a week, it's like a juggernaut!

I hope our exchanges subject them to lengthy procedures and mountains of paperworks, and draconian withdrawal limits, AML,KYC...... :D

If the FBI would transfer 174k coins to the exchanges, that would be a sign for the whales to dump big, before the FBI does.
Who dumps first, gets more fiat to buy back at the bottom. The resulting crash would be epic.

Ha ha ha.  That would be hilarious.  Gox should just block their coins for months.  "We see that you sent them but it will take a few more days to process it."

Based on Bitcoin crashing several times now, only to rebound and exceed the previous ATH, I think new bulls wouldn't let the price drop much below 100. Perhaps down to 50 if it was done fast enough before people were able to move around funds to buy at a psychological low price. Unless there is some dramatic news that significantly damages Bitcoin, it would be seen as cheap at those levels. And fiat is easy to come by.

We'd be in single digits.  Possibly lower.  Though I doubt it would stay there long.

That would be awesome. Everybody would know it's the FBI coins and consider them cheap and Bitcoin would become stronger.

I don't know who this Satoshi guy is but I wonder if he would approve of the rampant greed displayed in these forums over the last few months. It's starting to look like a bankers convention here lately. People bragging about how much money they have and how they will hold until they are the richest of the rich.

I hope one day he uses a chunk of his massive stash of early mined coins to initiate a market reset by dumping them directly into the hands of speculators filling orders all the way down to lets say $1 per Bitcoin and leaving a sell wall in it's wake which would make anyone think twice about making a purchase.

300,000 BTC dumped on Gox right now would fill every bid all the way down to $1. It would take much less to do the same on all the other exchanges and it could be done easily and at the same.

One thing's for sure - something like a few 'Satoshi cashouts' would generate so much publicity for Bitcoin it would be worth millions in it's own right.

He would probably have to sacrifice his anonymity to do this action though.

If Satoshi does have the 1.5 Million Bitcoins that he's been reputed to have he could do this three or four times ensuring unprecedented global publicity every time he did it.

Right now Satoshi's legacy is that he's created an investment asset for wealthy people.

Somehow I suspect this is not what he had in mind and I do wonder if he will do something about it. I know that he can.

Many bitcoiners don't have a problem with wealthy elites, they just don't like that it's not them on top in the current system. :)

I wonder what this 'Satoshi' character would think.

He probably was farsighted enough to recognize the effect of having a decentralized scarce digital asset with a depleting curve, but I too wish he would have explained his decisions.

To curb the speculatio/trade ratio, it may have been better to do 50 BTC block reward forever even though purely economically it's the same. It would also help the mining equilibrium problem in the future. Perhaps also a sigmoid curve, but of course it is hard to tune that one right to time.

Don't worry though, the tone in this forum will change quickly once we're into the next bear market.

Would the FBI really dump on exchanges though?  They have a mechanism for auctioning off proceeds of crime right now, don't they?  Sure it would be a bargain for the coins, but all they have to do is list them as "lot xxx - 174,000 BTC" on whatever government auction site they currently have.  Bidding starts at $100.  Winner would take ownership of the private keys and then do as they wish.  While they would be smarter to sell on exchanges, as you point out above, it's not aboue them being smart.  It's not like they sell cars through car dealers or houses through real estate agents.

Lol single digits, nice imagination  ::) I'll buy 300 BTC then. Wish it happens just once

500 000 btc??

we are talking about 200M$ right?

And you think it would drop only at 150$?

That would kill it all and drop down at like 15$ if not less. Everyone would panic, this would generate even more sales of coins and so on.

Reality is - No chance there would be such a sale. Maybe a 10k, 50k btc but 500k? Except the 174k from the government, I don't think any such thing is possible at all.

Some are saying the ultimate crash, but wouldn't it be more like the silk road closing?  A few panic sellers in the first hour, and then the realization that the last bit of counter-party risk (satoshi's coins) would be removed from the market?  I don't see that slowing down the S curve, more like the opposite.

More then that, if someone were to do this- I highly doubt they would get their money out of GOX. (only place this is possible). They would probably catch you up in some sort of legal processes to try and not give you the money. Like you broke the system or something like that. You still have to actually GET the $$$ from somewhere/someone. Good luck with that.

lol

so much hostility because they all need someone other than them to be the bagholder, deep down I think every speculator understands this, or if you do not, you should not call yourself a speculator.

to answer your question, if 500 000 coins were sold within 6 to 12 hours, bitcoin would be well under $100 - although no one on this forum will acknowledge this fact.

Last big crash bitcoin got dropped from $260 to $100 on approx 200 000 coins only - and of those 200 000 some were buys. So you asking if 500 000 were only sells? wow would be brutal.

The most amazing part of this is I would argue this is actually very likely to happen. Not from one "whale" but cumulative selling of lots of individual "investors" of 100 000s of coins is coming, my guess is soon.

Mass dumpers won't need to get fiat out of Gox. They could buy 4x the dumped coins at the bottom, withdraw some and sell on other exchanges. Profit both ways.

That's one auction I would very much like to attend. I wonder what payment methods the FBI accepts. Get the coins then reverse the payment. :)

500000 dump = single digits (nice times, when you could double even triple your BTCs holdings in hours).
Panic and fear everywhere, the new bitcoin holders never saw a real big dump... 1 week later BTC/USD $150 and going up.

There were not one but three crash days in April (down to $50). $260 to $100 was just the part where they vaprorized the area with low bid depth and $100 to $50 is where the real whale dumping was done. I would imagine that between all crash days 500000btc were dumped. Now if we only hit $50 in April, and bit coin has grown significantly since then, my new estimate would be $150.

Single digits is just ridiculous. At $10, the entire lot could be bought by one investor for $5 million, and probably would. Several of these types of investors have been buying in the present levels.

$50-100 there would be a ton of buyers, but I will get back in line to buy if we dip below $200 and buy all the way down to $.02

You are not taking in count fear and panic, if whales dump 500k to the market there will be many other people selling coins, maybe 200k more.
So, single digits is not ridiculous... dude $80+ up in one day, in bitcoin nothing is imposible.

Actually dump so many coins could be a good move (whale thinking)... BTC will recover for sure and the big whales will be bigger.