Bitcoin Forum

http://s21.postimg.org/t4qjifkiv/bitcoin_trend.png

So, is there anything this tells you? That we're not even close to the peak?

Price leads google trends and any other interest/media based indicator. It is a lagging indicator. It says nothing, and it has never said anything else about future prices.

Even if it's a lagging indicator, we're having ATH price but not ATH google trend. I'd say the price has a long way to go so that google trends can catch up before we enter the real bubble zone.

You're looking at the latest monthly reading, but we only have the 13th right now. Furthermore, I think google trends in specific is delayed by a couple days.

Regardless of whether we rally or whether we crash (that too brings a lot of interest!), there will possibly be enough searches to put us to a new high, so I don't see how it allows you to draw any price conclusion.

What should that tell us? I mean there can be various interpretations...

and what about baidu?

For me this has sense has it correlate to what i'm seing arround.
Last ATH the media was all over the place about bitcoin. This time i don't see it ( yet). Probably due to the fact that this rally was driven by china which do not use google so much.

This graph is showing that to me. It's been a long time now that we are over the last ATH, and right now we are closer to 2x the last ATH but still half the google trends search volume.

In a nutshell bitcoin still is not in the HYPE phase.

Other search engines may indeed be relevant as activity has surged in China and I don't think Google is their preferred search engine.

Also I'd take a look at client downloads on Source Forge, they have shown past correlation with hype indicators as well as price.  

Here is a link to a download chart

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline?dates=2012-01-07+to+2013-11-13

I don't know if their are other download sources that might not be tabulated here but it seems to confirm a degree of market saturation, most people who would go and try BTC because of the current level of media coverage already did so in April of this year, as current media coverage is about comparable to what occurred earlier this year we should not be surprised that the effect is not drawing in new people, it generally takes a much stronger signal to reach the next level.

The conclusion I think we can all make is that BTC markets CAN shoot up to multiples of prior valuation with or without a similar boom in participation.  Rather then new market participants driving the price up by their entry it is simply the current market participants driving up the price between each other.  Obviously their are always new participants and Chinese seem to be experiencing a flirtation with BTC but I would expect it's actually effect on the number of market participants to be mild, we already have near saturation of the English speaking world and while China is huge so is the English speaking world so were at best going to see a doubling of participation were as in April we saw it expand by an order of magnitude.