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Title: The current boom in a bitcoin historical context Post by: davidgdg on November 14, 2013, 03:20:14 PM I thought I would go back through BTC historical price data to see how the current boom compares to previous ones. All data is by reference to Gox and is taken from www.bitcoincharts.com
There have been six distinct "booms"/"bubbles" since BTC came to market in October 2010 (I am excluding the period before then because I have no price data and as far as I know BTC was not available on any exchanges.) They are as follows: October 2010 to November 2011 The baby boom. The price rose 6-fold in 5 weeks from 6 cents (!!!) to 38 cents, eventually steadying at about 20 cents January 2011 to February 2011 The breakthrough. The price rose 3 fold in two weeks, reaching the historic figure of One Dollar before falling back a little to about 80 cents. April 2011 to June 2011 The mother of all bubbles. The price rose a staggering 30 fold in 8 weeks, peaking at 30 dollars, before collapsing down to about $2.50 (but still well-up on the pre-boom price of 1 dollar) June 2012 to August 2012 The quiet boom. This one has escaped attention, but actually saw prices rise 3 fold in 10 weeks, from 5 dollars to 14 dollars before steadying/bottoming out at 9/10 dollars. January 2013 to April 2013 The first of the "modern" [edit] booms. Prices rose 20 fold in 10 weeks from $13 to $260 before bottoming out at about $70 dollars. October 2013 to November 2013 The current boom. A fairly modest one by historic standards. Prices have risen 3 1/2 fold from 130 dollars to 440 dollars in 6 weeks. The past is no guide to the future, but if it were, based on history I would expect any subsequent fall to be modest and fairly short lived. Title: Re: The current boom in a bitcoin historical context Post by: tutkarz on November 14, 2013, 03:29:26 PM conclusion is that one should not worry about price fluctuation's even big one's as long, as there is no big reason for this. Like whole internet shut down or no electricity around the globe ... Because the price will be always higher and higher like with any deflationary currency.
Title: Re: The current boom in a bitcoin historical context Post by: davidgdg on December 07, 2013, 10:42:35 AM If you compare the peak of any given boom with the low point following the next boom, an interesting trend emerges (I'm ignoring the slow rise in 2012)
38 cents to 80 cents 1 dollar to 2.50 30 dollars to 70 dollars The ratio in every case has been between 2 and 2.5:1 On this basis the price this time around is unlikely to go much below 540 (twice the 270 peak from April) I also predict that after the next boom the price will not fall below about 2500 to 3000 (2-2.5 x 1230) |