Bitcoin Forum

The current bitcoin value trend has a very high probability for a crash. The rise is too fast and a lot of the money coming in, is from people who only see bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme. This creates the situation, where most of the market is itchy to sell whenever the sharp upwards spikes stop coming. When this happens, then most of the value in BTC will flow to USD/CNY/EUR/etc. and it will stay there for a long period. Before a new place (India?) picks it up again and creates another boom.
Well, this is all fun to some people, but this actually slows down the financial evolution part, what cryptocurrencies are eventually all about.
I think that there is a real usable solution in keeping those funds in cryptocurrencies and stop the value from flowing back to fiat money. The community has to pull together enough to start a new rise with an alternative cryptocoin, as soon as the value of BTC is falling. This rise will attract back the old investors, that got bored with bitcoin and were looking for a new thing that spikes quickly. Meaning that the crash doesn't have to have the 6 month old recovery period and recovery could be done in couple of weeks.

The cryptocurrency world needs at least 2 cryptos, to keep the overvall markets stimulated and give the value stability. The future will probably hold 10+ cryptos for everyday use, all with it's own financial school of thought and an unique structure. This is how the cryptocurrency technology will make the financial world evolve into a more democratic and transparent system. But enough with future and speculations.

I think we really need to stick together to start a new altcoin spike to hold value in cryptos. I think that the best candidate would be Litecoin, and not for technical reasons, but purely because of it's market cap. ( 1)BTC- 4b$, 2)LTC- 106mil$, 3)PPC- 14mil$ ). With the biggest market cap. of altcoins, Litecoin will have the best starting momentum to start a new boom that will keep cryptos in the picture.

It isn't an elephant in the room most people are aware a crash is possible.  Bitcoin will recover.  It always has.   Not everyone will take 6 months off.

As far as "sticking together" to inflate an altcoin well ... that is just foolish.  There is no "stick together" in free markets.  Bitcoin doesn't need anyone to "stick together" but best of luck.

The 2011 bubble up to $32 was far larger than anything else we've seen.  Relatively speaking, it beats this 'bubble' by a mile.  The price crashed and recovered to (now) 15x the 2011 high.  And, more people are using bitcoins than ever before.  Look at a logarithmic chart of price over time and then reconsider if the price is rising to quickly.

I would rather say "highly possible". Just look at the orderbooks of USD/BTC CNY/BTC EUR/BTC and look at the value history in long and short term. Saying "it is possible" is surely an understatement.

Yes, it will recover, but it will take more time then it should. That was the main point that I was trying to make.


Yes there is, there are corporations, companies and partnerships for instance. If an entire sector is small and efficient enough, then it can orginize together to act in a way that is best for the entire sector. Those who have more influence in the community have to take lead and the rest will follow.

I am saying that the price is lower then it should be, because these sudden spikes and falls that took place in the past. Spikes and falls like that show instability and create mistrust among the investors. The cryptocurrency value needs to spread out among other altcoins because doing this creates more stability and that will win investors in the long run. If you are not ready yet for others, then at least consider LTC that is the current nr.2

This is a bit of an assumption too - yeah there will be a lot of short term view speculators involved, but perhaps there is also a lot of money coming in from people that see the potential value of the technology as a store of value and plan to buy and hold (like gold)

yawwwn we've heard this before, what makes you think people are going to go along with this silly plan to pump ltc during a btc correction?

Meh, let speculators speculate. I'm fine if my btc climbs in value.

Bitcoin will lose value when owners will start hoarding their coins without any usage. Bitcoin value is strongly tied to the amount of transactions because that is what keeps faith in the format of value. Without transaction volume, bitcoin will just fade into a list of empty promises. Gold is not like that because golds value is less speculative then with BTC. Gold can be used in electronics or apparel and this gives real value besides speculative value to gold.
The real value of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general is the ability to transfer funds safely and efficiently. Holding coins alone is just a big waste of an good value transfer system.

Honestly, I only have hope that people will hear me, who are important enough to have a say in the direction of cryptos. The banking sector is working together quite efficiently, why couldn't the cryptocurrency sector do the same? The crypto sector isn't just full of emotional teenagers who have no concept of synergy.

I don't have any comment on most of the OP, but this...


Hallelujah brother.


Notice my ears are not sealed.  :-X

Don't think the genesis of a better altcoin will come from a group effect. Groups are inherently inefficient. The group will support the initiative created by someone capable.


Agreed. He has good intentions and wants to see more choice in the market to smooth out and improve market efficiency, but hopefully he can learn that collectivism is not efficient. Tie your shoelaces together, tape your arm to your leg, fuse the chain links on your bicycle... systems are not efficient when you remove degrees-of-freedom.

Thus "sticking together" on Bitcoin is not good due to the same reasoning.

Let everyone decide for themselves what is the best investment.

You can't blame me for trying to tell the bitcoin community that there is a way that would be beneficial for the entire community.

If the solution will come, then it will probably come from a group that is small and efficient. The group will made by individuals who have the highest influence. Those who think that they are more efficient alone then with others are just bad at teamwork. If only the right people would hear my reasoning, so they could direct the sector so, that will go better for everyone involved.

Right now I'm going to sleep. i'll be looking forward to reading all of your replies tomorrow.

Google The Mythical Man-Month. Teams slow everything down.

Then look what one person (me) did all by himself (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3579916#msg3579916). Is 1% of the internet in 2001 (CoolPage.com) in 2 years not impressive for a one-man company from a Nipa Hut in a third world country?

The altcoin you want will come from probably one or maybe two programmers. And then he/she will pay others to help refine it in open source teamwork.

Relax. It will come. The opportunity is too great for it not to.

You are expressing a market demand. And I told you I am listening. And I bet others who are capable are listening.

Don't expect it to come top-down in a shining ivory tower of teamwork. That is not how open source really works. There is always a benevolent dictator involved in every great open source initiative, e.g. Linus Torvalds for Linux or Guido van Rossum for Python. Both of them did considerable initial work before being enjoined by others to contribute.

Remember open source operates more like a chaotic, random Bazaar than a predictable Cathedral (https://www.google.com/search?q=the+cathedral+and+the+bazaar).

As a staunch individualist, I approve of this post.

Not altogether sure of it's author though. I've been reading you quite a bit lately. You sir, are an interesting fella. I agree with most of your data, and a lot of your conclusions, but I think sometimes you take your ideology too far. But I have not gone all the way down your rabbit hole right now, so I will call that a preliminary observation.

I do not, however, concur with you that bitcoin will become fully cartelized and centralized inevitably. I do see the possibility, but I think what is more likely is that it's slow rate of growth and low cap will eventually relegate it to an alternative currency even more than it currently is, albeit a much higher valuation.

I suspect that the scrypt based altcoins, particularly litecoin (even though I'm amused by and like some of the others) will do the job it's creators envisioned. Act as silver to BTC's gold. With perhaps another acting as copper.

Let the markets play out as they will. I personally think that two seemingly contradictory statements are true. BTC's price ($458/!BTC at this very moment according to Preev.com) is probably a bubble. I suspect it will drop somewhat in the coming week. I also think that just given it's current adoption, BTC is undervalued due to it's scarcity and increasing adoption. I am going to guess (I shan't use the word predict cuz this is off the cuff) that it will hit 1k relatively soon, I'm guessing February or early March.

That is okay man, it doesn't offend me, because this isn't about me at all.

Let the chips fall where they may.

I will probably go quiet soon. Thanks.

Can you hear them? Just over there? Shouting "Nurse!"?

It's important, now, we know. But when they let you wake up, it'll be so sunny, so peaceful...

Westerners are so cruel (yet they think they are so good). I wonder if they were beaten as children or just love judging others or what. It is one reason I hate to live in Western countries.

They see everyone else as crazy except themselves.

Judging Others

7 “Do not judge, or you too will be judged. 2 For in the same way you judge others, you will be judged, and with the measure you use, it will be measured to you.

3 “Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye? 4 How can you say to your brother, ‘Let me take the speck out of your eye,’ when all the time there is a plank in your own eye? 5 You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother’s eye.

Fuck I tried to explain to the kid that he can trust the Bazaar.

I try to soothe someone and you attack.

What kind of miserable life would cause you to be so callous and spiteful.

Yeah you are correct. It is better shut up and do only action and never ever try to share a damn thing.

i love you because of this statement  ;)  but : bitcoin will have this kind of growth now and in the future. of course we will see , that the price dropps alot and alot of new user sell their coins, but BTC will then recover.

Says the person who has bought LTC!

I hope not. I meant I am unsure of where you're coming from. You've presented some things that on their face, I do not agree with. Yet you are coming from largely the same (or so it seems) philosophical underpinnings as I am. On a couple of things, I definitely disagree with you, as I had posted previous. I'm simply not sure on the rest. I was following you on another thread, and your posts were about the only ones that interested me. Don't go quiet!

Right, but silver is just a more volatile PM, price is still highly correlated. So its not a good alternative/hedge.

If there's going to be an alternative crypto-currency with a price less correlated (or inversely correlated) to BTC, I'm betting that its XRP (as the dollar to the gold). For one, its the most different (not just an alt-chain). For two, its the only existing alternative to bank transfers for withdrawing fiat or moving fiat between exchanges.

This time around, when other exchanges have their share of the same problems/delays processing fiat withdrawals that mtgox had, i expect ripple/XRP to very well positioned. Both in terms of utility/adoption, and price gains. But its just a bet, and I could be wrong.

Not familiar with it, unfortunately. Could you provide a link? (I'm always about learning new things :) )

ripple.com (https://ripple.com). Click "wallet" in the top right to create a wallet.

Since bitstamp is the biggest ripple gateway, its the best way to get money into XRP right now. Without a bitstamp account, i think the best alternatives are dividendrippler.com and ripplewise.com.

The best XRP chart is http://xrp.webr3.org/usd-xrp. It shows the bitstamp USD order book (lower price is better, because XRP is the quote currency so price is read as "103 XRP to the dollar").

Thanks!

I'm going to be gone for a couple of days, as I work a long distance from home, but when I get back I'll check it out. Just wanted to drop the note so you didn't think I was ignoring you as I vanish :)

and again @ anonymint, in rereading my first post it came off rather snarky. That was not my intent at all. Chalk it up to lack of coffee. I really like reading your stuff. I just find some of your conclusions very different from mine, even though we seem to be coming from a very similar perspective. Also, from some of you comments I gather that english might not be your native tongue, in which case I have to say you write it well, but it could lead to some confusion of meaning. I only discovered you three days ago, so don't go silent just yet, eh?

Biomech, I really wasn't ever offended by your first post, I valued it for being honest and balanced.

I was born in New Orleans so English is my birth language. And I was having conversations with random adults in the park at age 2. I was never brilliant in english, although I did get an A in English 101. On the standardized tests, I scored 85 - 90% percentile on all verbal tasks except for comprehension at which I scored 98%. In the visual mathematics and algorithms (i.e. programming the computer and logic), my IQ is very high. It is difficult to measure it. I estimate somewhere between 140 - 150, e.g. such as this example (http://unheresy.com/Essence%20of%20Genius.html). That is my blog http://unheresy.com

Also my english suffered from not using it much for the past 20 years, as I lived in an Asia third-world country for much of that time and speak the local dialect.

As for things you may not agree with on the face, let me see if I can disrupt your thinking at the following post I made today:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=222998.msg3615848#msg3615848

I need to go quiet because all this talking is disruptive to programming. And I prefer programming. Fits my mental makeup and personality.

thanks for the reply anonymint, I will check it out when I return (approx. three days). I'm a few minutes from leaving, and I'm glad I gave no offense.

Its not really the elephant in the room.  We all know a crash is coming, we all know we need to correct, we all know that we will rebound.