Bitcoin Forum

Will we have big crash at last or not?

If so, how big will it be? to 200, 100$ ?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/90/Buka.jpg

https://www.gldtalk.org/devteam/bubble.png

Sometime soon the bubble is going to land on this kid's head. And when it does it's gonna pop! Back to $250?  :D

Yes. I suspect there will be a big correction down the line. Most likely bottoming out at mid-500's before stabilizing at 700-800s.

Down to what? 250, 300?

Wait a moment, I will search for my chrystal ball.
*takes a look into the future*
*...*
"Buy fresh mountain dew, now for only..."
Oh wait wrong channel!
*zap*
"When the shadows of Mars and Venus align and a red moon covers the sky, only then the crescent rise will come to an end. Stars fall deeply into the horizon. The dawn will begin anew"

I believe you.

There will be no big crash imo, too many people expecting one with the April crash still fresh in their minds. Back in April many thought there wouldn't be a crash, and that bitcoin would go straight to the moon. Now many are expecting a crash this time like in April, but Bitcoin always does that which people don't expect. People expected a 2011-like bear market and capitulation after the April top and that didn't happen either, so the most I would hope for now is a deep but pretty short-lived correction. $350 bottom is my guess of the coming correction.

Down to mid-500s, as I said. But that would most likely only be a short flash. The price would stabilize at around 700-800s, or perhaps 800-900s.

I'm deciding here when to buy and you say me 700. shit ; /

The Dollar bubble will explode first.

Truth is, no one knows. It's a new game with markets across several continents and exchanges instead of gox only. My guess is as good as yours. The one thing I am sure of is that in the long-term, holding is the key.

To hold you have to have.

That's probable. Each time BTC stays on a new high just to jump another step builds up confidence in the previous price, so if it drops it won't be more than 2 - 3 steps back. There are too many buyers waiting on each step. What we are observing right now is based on chinese no-fee-trading.inc. People will eventually realize that and stop buying into this rally, causing a drop.

as far as I can tell, everyone is willing to buy more if the price dips heavily. That's the big difference from April. In the April crash, most investors wanted out as soon as it started tanking. With a future (possible) crash, everyone will want in. That's a huge difference in attitude and support.

Again and again during the run up, we've seen smaller and smaller dips, being bought up almost immediately. The first surprise in support was the news of Silk Road - the massive sell off and then the recovery in a few days. Since then any dips have been bought back quickly. I have a feeling we'll see less crashes and more corrections - and even those will dip less over time, creating more stability for the currency which will be good for all.

The wildcard is China - they haven't gone through an April crash. How will they react if everyone starts selling over there? I wonder if there are as many Chinese wanting to "buy in after a dip"? 

the funny thing is that if Chinese government will lock up their exchange (and I doubt it will ever will), then it will mean ton's of bitcoins lost for unknown period of time.

Here are the fibonacci numbers for this (daily chart) rally on Bitstamp.

High   466   
      
Low   126   
      
      
L1   0.00%   466.0
      
L2   38.20%   336.1
      
L3   50.00%   296.0
      
L4   61.80%   255.9
      
L5   76.40%   206.2
      
L6   100.00%   126.0


We could see a full retracement to $126 (for a flash)...but any major correction/retrace will likely touch $296 and possibly touch $255 or briefly $206.

Edit: I agree there is more support in this rally, and the dynamics are different with China being more involved etc.
I would say the next major support would be at L2 and L3. If we go below the last ATH at $266 it will drop to L5 or L6.

Lets see, many people are waiting for the crash to buy in, that make the crash almost impossible to crash....

Oh well, basically everyone who has bitcoins is currently sitting on profits. And a lot of people are starring at their wallets and cannot believe how wealthy they have become or becoming....this cannot go on forever.

We should not forget that there are currently 3.5 Mio USD on loan at Bitfinex at high interest rates (80% p.a.) for leveraged bitcoin long positions. This all goes well as long as prices go up, but once we reach stability or a drop a lot of coins will come to the market. Given that many people try to react quickly to get out of their positions, creating margin calls could create a flashcrash to levels no one would expect.

In my eyes the crash will come, the only question is when and from which levels.

@$500/BTC $3.5 million is only 7k coins.  Sure that is significant, but it isn't enough to clear the bids down to $450.

To hold you have to buy  ;D

1. Bitfinex prices are linked to the Bitstamp orderbook (465 USD)... much lower depth...
2. Those loans were not taken out at 465, but at much lower levels.
3. People use their coins as margin and might be sold as well...

Let´s guess it is 10000-12000 coins...

Only these coins could bring down the bitstamp and bitfinex price to USD 300...

Ouh, thanks for that, i didnt know ;p

Earlier this year Bitcoin went from ~$10 to $266, a 26x (2500%) increase.  It then flash crashed briefly to ~$50, stabilizing around $100 for quite some time.

News flash: It stabilized, post-crash, still at 10x of what it was trading in January, only a few short months earlier.

People today see us go from $200 to ~$500 quick, a 2.5x (150%) increase, and think the bubble is popping down to less than $200.  Good luck with that.  If we had the same scenario as in April, with a 26x increase, we'd be going to ~$5000, then flash crashing to maybe $1,000 before stabilizing above that.  

EDIT: Keep in mind that the incredible "flash crash" in April was catalyzed, and made much worse, by Mt Gox's failures.  We now have a much more distributed system of exchanges, and have seen the market remain stable when one goes down temporarily.  

No.

We will have minor corrections maybe, and more likely some more plateaus.

Then more increases.

Bitcoin is not a stock. 

People should stop worrying about the next crash and just keep buying coins. The resistance we have been feeling in the 400-500$ range could be from a mass of public buy-ins at 200-250$. With only 12m Bitcoins in existence there just is'nt enough of them. Who knows when the next seizure of wealth will come, why would'nt people want Bitcoins?  I don't see why we couldn't hit 1000$ by 2014 assuming the stock market doesn't go by then.

I still believe there will be cheaper coins after US Senate hearing. So I waiting, big correction seems to be close

1. Bitfinex prices are linked to the Bitfinex order book, which has Bitstamp orders, plus in house orders. 7000 BTC would indeed take us to $370, based on order depth alone, but arbitrage opportunities will dampen that quite a bit unless it happens very quickly.
2. Right, so there is quite some headroom before they are forced out and my observations are that Bitfinex longs decrease when there are down drafts.  In other words, they are using stop losses.
3. Sure

12000 all at once would take Bitfinex to $280. 10000 would take it to $320.  But, the headroom, stop losses, and arbitrage will keep us from seeing bitcoinica era volatility caused by Bitfinex.  It may happen due to other forces, but Bitfinex doesn't have enough leverage and the exchange market is too widely distributed for Bitfinex to control price.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i96VS_z8y7g

China went to sleep, and other exchanges wait for a signal from China.
Looks like I will have to wake up in the middle of the night to catch the action.

LOL yup perhaps it will...but that doesn't mean people should invest in GoldCoin....just saying.  :D


BTW what mining algorithm does goldcoin use? SHA256? SCRYPT?