Bitcoin Forum

The question is straight forward. My opinion is that the value is artificially pumped, my arguments:

1.   A general sentiment for a crash/correction is telling us the value is generally accepted to be risen too sharply;
2.   The rise in demand in China is given as an explanation for the sharp appreciation. The chart below shows there is no significant change in transactions nor in volume (in BTC), compared with the peaks in April.
3.   Miners (mainly the supply side) got their heavy and expensive equipment in October, November and are trying to ROI .


estimated transaction volume:
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume

number of transactions per day:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

mining operating margin
http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

probably it is, but then again, who cares?

ooo, you are a newbie, that explains it.  :)

welcome to bitcoin.

yep, I am but not new to trading :)

It is not about caring but trading informed. Would you buy your btc @500, if you estimate there are good chances it will drop to 200. Just use your imagination and think of all the profit making possibilities, if we only knew :)

Regarding the chart with transaction-count: Look at the chart that excludes the 100 most popular addresses. This removes gambling stuff like SatoshiDice and focuses more on actual transactions. That chart is showing a consistent growth.

I will sell 99% of my coins @4500$ and wait to buy back @1200$

Since alot of people want in and want to make it big bitcoin has become a shark frenzy.
The only real question is will it ever crash and burn.

Beware the return of.........






































http://api.ning.com/files/89z3pNH5cGW2qQPWsnP1tBjgNyajWBvm2jJCyjl*L5ewxwLQ3AgXAfHt0DmWcjls/strikes3.jpg
The Manipulator




Muhahahahahhahahhahaha!

Also, a point with the transaction volume - yeah, the level is staying pretty much consistent with april, but bear in mind that the dollar value per BTC is much higher than before - so one needs to move less bitcoins for a far greater "actual value" dollar transfer. So you would not necessarily expect this to grow significantly, if the price is also rising at such a rate.

Even there the growth cannot be labeled consistent, there is a shift from November on

It depends what you define as manipulated:

If I sell one BTC, that price changes. Have I manipulated the markets?

If someone does the same with 1000BTC, is that manipulating the markets?

What if a whale dumps to cause mini panic sell so they can buy back a few % cheaper? Is that manipulation?

If yes to any of the above, then yes, by your definition, market is being manipulated.

If you mean the exchanges are fiddling the numbers, then I doubt it, purely because there's that many exchanges, it would have to be done on all of them.


Regarding your original point 1 & 2, to me, that's just a bubble or hype: price rising rapidly with not much to back it up. The bigger this effect becomes, the more people spot it, the more the confidence in the overinflated price drops, the closer to the pop.

manipulation, mainstream media attention, greed, chinese enthusiasm...

When something is rare, the Chinese are crazy and can spend much money, the bubble can still grow.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-buyer-spends-177000-to-win-rare-barrel-of-burgundy-at-wine-auction-2013-11

yes but this could be explained by the readiness of people, still willing to buy at all cost. So, not necessarily meaning a lot of new people came in to buy.

All are some forms of manipulation. It depends on your possession and the liquidity on the market. If you have 1 BTC on a market with 2 BTC liquidity, yes you can manipulate the market and finally you will because you are doing this for profit. 

I do not believe either exchanges are fiddling the numbers. However what could be possible is that miners are intuitively holding back to ROI

That consistent growth , can it explain a 100x price?. With just an average of 60k from 30k total transactions , it's clear that not adoption or usage is driving the price up.

I've just seen in a different thread that Plus500 changed the leverage ratio to 1:1. Why would they have done that ??

Excellent plan.

It's being manipulated by the press.

Really? :) Seriously, why do you think so?

The Chinese totally drive the price up

http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/cny-vs-usd2.png?w=744&h=489

You'll discover it all by yourself if you read on..:)

It could be a bubble but a bubble is rather slumbering. Here it is quite obvious or may be it is just paranoia :)

Again, depends on who you count as the press. If you count Max Keiser as press, then I think it would be silly to assume he didn't buy any LTC before mentioning it in his twitter feed this morning knocking LTC up 50% against the $.

I can't tell if your joking but basically the press says, "Everyone is buying bitcoin" so people out and buy bitcoin and then the press says, "everyone is REALLY buying bitcoin now!" and even more people run out to buy bitcoin. It's all well and lovely except for when it goes south, if only by a couple dollars and they start saying "everyone is selling bitcoin!" and well you know, rinse wash repeat.

I only see BTC is rising but not an explanation why it is rising...


I was serious. This assumption cannot be derived from the charts I posted with the poll

All markets are always being manipulated by somebody.  To think otherwise is naivete.

I think bitcoins is the closest thing there is to a free market today. This is because there are no significant bitcoin derivatives yet. In silver for example the price of physical metal is diluted a hundred times by paper derivatives traded in the futures markets and ETFs.  Only manipulation possible in bitcoins is to pump the price up then dump the price down which increases volatility but doesn't supress the price.

I believe the Chinese market is manipulated, and the purpose is to exchange massive amounts of CNY to USD via BTC,
and also make a huge profit in the process. Bitstamp could be the most affected, because cashing out of Gox is still a problem.
That could explain why the price on Bitstamp is so much lower than Gox, and it might go even lower.

How I miss the manipulator threads! Nostalgia  :D

I fail to understand what you just said. Btw - btc is just $600 so if you have bought for 500 you would have made 20% profit. Sure it could have fallen down to 200, or to 0 for that matter. Or grown up to 1000. I don't really understand what is supposed to be the basis for BTC evaluation.

That was just an example to make clear the better informed you are, the better decisions you can make.

A healthy basis atm would be 250 but hey...who am I to tell? So, read the forums and make your decision. The stand here is 49 yes to 23 no

Maybe china are just trying to buy out bitcoin to use as a sovereign currency!

they can use btc's technology with some tweaks which would be easier, as BTC's nature does not allow centralization atm

When this will crash, it's possible that the Chinese communist party to decide to ban bitcoin use in China,
if they find out the bubble was a 'conspiracy', that could be very bad for bitcoin.

the market isnt being manipulated, you are.

this is wrong

China is known for crazy volatile markets, they are use to this kind of thing.

well if it makes you happy and if this is your best argument. I will not let you down, yes I am  ;D.

What is "healthy basis atm"? And why would that be 250? Also - 250 of what?

is someone else experiencing problems reaching bitstamp? It just keeps loading forever or a page of incapsula something appears?