Bitcoin Forum

Estimate on how low can we go?!

I want to be an optimist and say no lower than 11.50$

[EDIT] Think miners will start jumping ship!?

$8

Better not freaking go any lower

Why don't people push the price up?? My goodness

the market depth and order book don't show any solid landing point.

so who knows.

Why would they? They will continue to put their orders in, and if miners continue to sell at outrageously low prices, traders will continue to buy. If all the miners secretly got together tomorrow and halted selling for 2 weeks the price would double. However this is a small market, and when you have thousands of people trying to make back thousands of dollars in equipment things will get ugly fast. The market is being flooded by cheap coins because of the new miners that have come into the game. Anyone who bought in with equipment should seriously consider holding on to their coins for at-least a couple of months, cause selling now doesn't help anyone including themselves...

I think the biggest problem is that you have a bunch of finance people literally praying on a bunch of nerds (I include myself thank you). They know how to manipulate this small market, and seriously work us to their advantage. The money that we trade on a daily basis is JOKE money to these people. You think your $10,000 is hot stuff? These people have millions... And they can easily manipulate us into making stupid decisions and giving up our Bitcoins for prices that are simply unacceptable! Just because your fiat reality has you under the ropes doesn't mean your Bitcoin reality needs to look the same way...

We are a community of IT professionals, and IT people are known for knowing "everything". It's time for everyone to start picking up some day trading books, and learn how trading markets work. I don't mean that in any detrimental way, but the facts are true. These *firms* are running huge games on us, and everyone seems to be following them like lost puppy's...

Many traders don't care whether the price goes up or down.  They only care that the price moves, and that they can skim a little bit from every movement.

cool story bro  :D

Anyone telling anybody anything less is LYING.

If you're a miner STOP SELLING YOUR COINS, they are more valuable than you think. Hold them or if you need to buy stuff buy it in Bitcoins. There is literally enough stores now where you can find almost anything you need in BITCOINS https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade.

Keep the money in the Bitcoin economy till at-least prices stabilize.

I'm also focusing on getting a better paying job so I can buy more soon. I want to try to get about 1000 bitcoins as at the moment I only have about 67.

You actually spoke directly to me. This post was VERY useful. I have been selling at outrageous prices out of fear AND ease. If the price was 14.60 per btc I would sell at 14.55 because it sold instantly. So me being part of the problem I'm not selling anymore. I'll sit on them.  But with that being said, WHEN do I pull the trigger? How many coins are too many at one time? Do it in blocks on different days or at once. Early in the AM or in the afternoon? Which price range should I shoot for? These are all questions I don't have answers to.

There's always a bottom at 0.

Bitcoins should never have went as high as they did, right now the price is way high for what you are buying.

Pretty much what he said.  A few weeks ago there was no question of mine vs buy -- we all rushed out to add 3/4 of today's mining capacity over about 6 weeks.

Now that the question of mine vs buy exists and doesn't really have a clear answer you may have fundamentals shaping up for a real bottom.  A bit of capitulation (note: this isn't it) and we should be good to go.

$6/btc and 2.5 million difficulty should do it.  Oh, and the lower this goes the less money it takes to feed this "beast".  At $6/btc that's only 43,200 a day if 100% of all mined coins get sold.  In reality it's much less because only a relatively small % of miners will sell coins for much less than power costs to mine them.

Well, I managed to buy a bunch at $10.00 today... so who knows. I've been expecting them to hit the $10 mark for 3 weeks now to be honest.

Where did you buy them at 10 dollars?

cavirtex.com of course.  Always seems to be a bit lower than the other exchanges, since its a smaller exchange with weak buy demand. So in otherwords if you can buy there, its a deal usually. 8)

Have you tried to withdraw them as well (with confirmation)? Maybe he is selling you nothing for 10 dollars. :)

I have not had any problems with withdrawal of either bitcoins or cash from cavirtex.
I trust them with my.. well, handful of coins.  :)

Sometimes opportunity has to knock really loud for people to hear.

Times may look bleak for people heavy in coin but they sure are looking bright for people who want to acquire them.

I blame the current drop on a string of really bad news, long term things can even be bright for the heavy holders.


Opportunity is knocking, how loud has he got to get before you answer the door and buy some coin?

I've been mining for 2 months and I sold the first batch I mined at $13.66 and the remaining at around $13 2 days ago (well, I'm still mining and consider downsizing). I sold out of fear that it would drop more. What you said is reasonable. But my question is if the trend is down, should we sell the coins and possibly buy them back later? I know selling will only cause more downward pressure but at the same time, people do have to pay the utility and their expensive mining rigs I guess.

the price drop was not caused by miners ; it was caused by large sales of 5k to 10k, which suggests that early adopters have been cashing out.
not sure how long this can go on, but it cannot last indefinitely.

Think again, I have a mining rig and sell pretty much everyday. We all together create 7200 bitcoin/day, thats a lot of dollars that are created per day compared to the exchange price of 12 dollars. More exactly 12 x 7200 =  86 400 dollars are "created" everyday. With that creation we MUST have dollar/fiat currency buyers, if not it will go down. Easy math.

At this pace it gives us a money creation per year that looks like this 365 x 7200 x 12 = 31 536 000 dollars

If you add this things:

*All the issues with Mt.gox, mybitcoin, wallets lost at exchanges, dwolla etc.
*Cost of heavy investments in rigs the last 1-2 months, they want to cash in as a first phase of their investment
*Early adopters that bought in not many months ago at a couple of cents to a dollar (returns of 1000-10000+ %)
*Early adopters that have bought in heavy (50 000 bitcoins or more) and have profits of 500 000 dollars + already

That tells me that 31 million dollars is just created by the mining/inflation in the next year (that will need USD buyers), plus the chance of the early adopters selling massive amounts of bitcoins and all the other things I mentioned (that will also need USD buyers). Just look at the market depth (that seems to miss USD buyers).

12 dollars is a very high price with all the information we have right now.

The price of 12$ is still way too high for a bitcoin. The first big hype is cooling down and less $$ arrive at the market. Holding to BTCs and not selling is just plain stupid because it does not reverse the trend anway.

A price of 6-8$ is a fair deal and a matter to come!

And start thinking about how to explain this to you (grand-)children one day when they ask: "Daddy, why did you sell bitcoin worth a small city back then just to be able to buy food for the year 2011?"

That's one possible future.  The other (I think more probable) future is your grandchildren asking where bitcoin went, along with Flooz, Beanz, e-gold, Euros, and P2P currencies yet to be created.

great, that you put the Euro on your list^^ but cant find the USD...

+1

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm with the above in that I sell BTC as soon as I mine them. Basically as soon as I have 1 BTC, I throw it out to the market at whatever the current price is. That only makes sense, because as a person who's made an investment into the manufacture of a product, I have to sell in order to at least try and make back my investment.

As for the current price slide, I think you can see easily still how out of whack the order book and market depth are. There doesn't seem to be any real support until $10.25 or lower. So my guess is that we'll continue to see the price slide as miners continue to fill the current buy orders at ASK, while the 'investors' keep up their buy walls oping to turn a profit.

I was also looking at the support all the way down to $10.25. All this shows is that market minipulation is in place and the manipulators are trying to keep the price from falling into the $10's, by mostly consolidating their bid wall at $11.00.

They are at their last strength here and have mostly given up, if we break their last defensive stand at $11, they will probably give in and not want to continue taking losses trying to shore up a market with mostly sellers and miners who just want to get return on their investment back.

I love watching the market minipulators take a pounding, they probably have lost tens of thousands of dollars trying to shore up the price of bitcoin.

You guys had your chances to get out when the price was much higher, continued investment in such a losing commodity was just plain stupid. HOw could you expect enough buyers out there to keep pace with all the new coins being mined and entered into the system.

http://th89.photobucket.com/albums/k222/buonanotte/moving%20stuff/th_icon-real-ohthosemoves.gif

11$ wall was a phony? now i dont know what to believe

wow that 11$ wall got owned! grrr....oh well Ill hold onto my coins @ 11.025, only 2$ worth HAHA...playin money =P

Single digits here we come.

Down the slide.

selling in the high 12s looking ok now, but man i had a lot of trepidation with it

then again maybe it'll bounce back up, shits crazy

yeah, it sucks for miners grr...

Yeah, too easy.

I am a big miner by most standards. I haven't sold any BTC since mid-June.

I guess it will be good...to buy tons of BTC when it gets really low and wait for the next 3 month bubble =P

The mining juggernaut is actually running at unprecedented pace, so I doubt the plummeting ill stop soon. It seems that the price drop recently has go something to do with a new big player in the mining town.

There you go, folks...looks like inflation is destroying the purchasing power of bitcoins! Quick! Tell the media bitcoins are not deflationary!!

What do you mean new big player? Even with the low profit margins and plumeting price, there are still people setting up huge mining farms?

That doesn't make any sense, rate of mining is essentially constant. Whether or not some new person comes aboard doesn't drastically affect creation rates.

All the ask walls are real, solid, reinforced-concrete ironclad which you can't get over no matter how small the number is. all the bid walls are fake and flimsy and will vanish the moment the price touches it no matter how large the number is.

They could have some cheap computing power and electricity and harvesting a large potion of all the BTCs, then sell them at a very low price.

I don't know the reason, but the network total hashing capability growed by about 20% in the last 1 week and it just growed noticeably as we talked.

difficulty just increased. total hash power calculations get screwed up when difficulty changes. happens every time.

some jerk bought all the tradehill euros  :-[ i gotta pay some bills ffs

How I missed the 30$ mark. It's now back to like May prices.

Actually 10 dollars is also a very high price with all the information we have right now (last price 10,45 dollars with a low at 8,70 dollars).

I mine. I sold at $30.65. I reluctantly sold at $22. I have been extremely reluctant to sell ever since. $10 is ridiculously low in my opinion and I am quite happy to sit on my bitcoins for a while until everybody stops panicking.

+1

WTF?!?! who put the massive wall up at 9$?!!? it just instantly appeared!

Same here, I'm just building up my stash... and even then I'm hoping I can spend some directly, and not just go to the exchange. :)

Did anyone read the second post on the first page of this thread?

When a bunch of people each predict something randomly, the chance of someone being right is high ;)

Hah... so very true! Give typewriters to 10,000 monkeys...

lololol this guys stillllllll here