Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Joe200 on November 19, 2013, 02:32:37 PM



Title: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: Joe200 on November 19, 2013, 02:32:37 PM
OK, everyone is screaming "crash". What crash? Where? I don't see it.

VWAP is up! By about 10% in a single day at this point. So the price increases by 10% and everyone screams "crash"?!

Yes, there is a lot of excitement. More than when I posted this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=329802.msg3537325#msg3537325 But I think excitement can go higher a bit more. It has to be sustained for a few days before it all collapses.

The new normal is here, so that's a sign that the top is near.

My pure speculation. Price stays where it is -- at least above or maybe even slightly below yesterday's vwap -- for a day or two, regroups, and then pushes higher.

It will be like the one final orgasmic thrust. It will be glorious. :)




Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: wopwop on November 19, 2013, 02:33:39 PM
I felt a twinkle in my balls reading that last line


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: Crazy on November 19, 2013, 02:35:12 PM
The amount of large buys I've seen lately indicates, to me at least, professional money. And it keeps pouring in. I think there are a few gaming some newbie sentiment, but they aren't going to dump $5-10 mill in a purchase to see it all gone. This moves higher before it's all said and done.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: Mats8500 on November 19, 2013, 02:47:16 PM
I agree, the kind of money we are seeing at this point isn't coming from the average joe. Some people are cashing in by dropping in big amounts and buying backs but we saw that a few times in the last few days. This one was just a bigger one.

The good news are overwhelming at this point with bitcoin. The bubble will keep inflating for a while. I am not saying it won't blow at a point, but I don't feel we have reached that point yet.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: HappyBitCoinUser on November 19, 2013, 02:47:56 PM
I think going down 33% ($300) in just few hours is good sign of a crash.

You tried too hard, and already knew the answer.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: deisik on November 19, 2013, 02:50:16 PM
My pure speculation. Price stays where it is -- at least above or maybe even slightly below yesterday's vwap -- for a day or two, regroups, and then pushes higher.

It will be like the one final orgasmic thrust. It will be glorious. :)

Yeah, balls to the wall! ;D


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: EuroTrash on November 19, 2013, 02:52:00 PM
I think bull trap is likely right now.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/techanalysis/elliot1.gif

source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: antimattercrusader on November 19, 2013, 02:56:56 PM
I don't think so, but we shall see!  ;D


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: deisik on November 19, 2013, 03:00:21 PM
I agree, the kind of money we are seeing at this point isn't coming from the average joe. Some people are cashing in by dropping in big amounts and buying backs but we saw that a few times in the last few days. This one was just a bigger one.

The good news are overwhelming at this point with bitcoin. The bubble will keep inflating for a while. I am not saying it won't blow at a point, but I don't feel we have reached that point yet.

People need some asset which could be a safe investment/haven for at least a few years like gold was. But now gold is discredited (in price terms), so it's an easy guess that the price might reach around 2000$ (as gold was once heading up to). It's all throughout human psychology 8)


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: Littleshop on November 19, 2013, 03:01:09 PM
I think bull trap is likely right now.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/techanalysis/elliot1.gif

source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp

This act is repeated hundreds of times in this subforum.  Show graph.  Make guess.  

I could look at that same chart and say, "I think this is a market maker shake out"

None of us can guess the future, we can only make bets.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: humanitee on November 19, 2013, 03:02:48 PM
I like how bears are focusing on English markets while the Chinese DGASF (don't give a single fuck).


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: JimboToronto on November 19, 2013, 03:05:25 PM
People need some asset which could be a safe investment for at least a few years

A few years? Anyone who has held bitcoins for even 2 years has profited quite well.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: deisik on November 19, 2013, 03:17:06 PM
A few years? Anyone who has held bitcoins for even 2 years has profited quite well.

Those were few and far in between (in relative terms indeed). I mean Bitcoin for the masses... ::)


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: JimboToronto on November 19, 2013, 03:32:25 PM
A few years? Anyone who has held bitcoins for even 2 years has profited quite well.

Those were few and far in between (in relative terms indeed). I mean Bitcoin for the masses... ::)

Few and far between? Perhaps we should poll the forum.

As for the masses, they're more than welcome to join in, buy and hold for a couple of years.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: deisik on November 19, 2013, 03:43:15 PM
Few and far between? Perhaps we should poll the forum.

No, we shouldn't. Suffice it would be to measure the size of the BTC economy in money terms ;)


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: JimboToronto on November 19, 2013, 03:44:58 PM
Few and far between? Perhaps we should poll the forum.

No, we shouldn't. Suffice it would be to measure the size of the BTC economy in money terms ;)
Money terms?


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: mvidetto on November 19, 2013, 03:57:52 PM
I think bull trap is likely right now.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/techanalysis/elliot1.gif

source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp

Yes, to the smart investors out there we are in all likelihood around wave B.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: deisik on November 19, 2013, 03:59:19 PM
As for the masses, they're more than welcome to join in, buy and hold for a couple of years.

That's what I'm talking about. The price shouldn't be very high per unit, so your average Joe could ultimately afford it (even if he actually buys only a small portion of a unit), and at the same time it shouldn't be very low, so he could feel the weight of his investment and be happy about it 8)


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: thefiniteidea on November 19, 2013, 04:00:49 PM
I think bull trap is likely right now.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/techanalysis/elliot1.gif

source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp

This act is repeated hundreds of times in this subforum.  Show graph.  Make guess.  

I could look at that same chart and say, "I think this is a market maker shake out"

None of us can guess the future, we can only make bets.

The point of this subforum is exactly to guess the future and share it with everyone else.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: deisik on November 19, 2013, 04:10:00 PM
No, we shouldn't. Suffice it would be to measure the size of the BTC economy in money terms ;)
Money terms?

Instead of polling the forum we could easily track the size of the BTC economy (number of coins times BTC exchange rate) for the past few years... 8)


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: JustAnotherSheep on November 19, 2013, 04:25:10 PM
I think bull trap is likely right now.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/techanalysis/elliot1.gif

source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp
Or maybe, just maybe, what we saw was the most epic beartrap in all of history  :o


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: MatTheCat on November 19, 2013, 04:29:43 PM
I think bull trap is likely right now.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/techanalysis/elliot1.gif

source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp
Or maybe, just maybe, what we saw was the most epic beartrap in all of history  :o

My money is on the pig getting another fattening up for another slaughtering. Speculators seek profit, this is how they get it.

Whatever, me and my hard earned are out of Bitcoin for now and will not be entering again until the market settles.

I would suggest that anyone putting their dosh into Bitcoin right now may as well just go down the casino and put everything on red.


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: NUFCrichard on November 19, 2013, 04:46:59 PM
I think bull trap is likely right now.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/techanalysis/elliot1.gif

source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp

This act is repeated hundreds of times in this subforum.  Show graph.  Make guess.  

I could look at that same chart and say, "I think this is a market maker shake out"

None of us can guess the future, we can only make bets.

The point of this subforum is exactly to guess the future and share it with everyone else.

That speculation for you!


Title: Re: Where is the crash? Seriously
Post by: Joe200 on November 21, 2013, 12:34:43 PM
9% drop in vwap on bitstamp yesterday, followed by an all time high today. Yes, this must be a crash..  ::)