Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Economics => Topic started by: bonker on August 03, 2011, 04:47:04 PM



Title: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: bonker on August 03, 2011, 04:47:04 PM
Prices have dropped nearly 10% today, that's pretty big, but is it a crash?

I guess mining is about to become unprofitable so shit should stabilise as all the miners turn off their
pointless rigs?








Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: Babylon on August 03, 2011, 05:22:17 PM
Prices have dropped nearly 10% today, that's pretty big, but is it a crash?

I guess mining is about to become unprofitable so shit should stabilise as all the miners turn off their
pointless rigs?








Miners turning off their rigs will not slow down the amount of bitcoins being produced.  It will just make mining easier for those left in the game.  Miner's holding coins instead of selling immediately would push prices up.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: tacotime on August 03, 2011, 05:31:45 PM
Is this the great DJI crash?  I doubt it


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: Hunterbunter on August 03, 2011, 05:43:07 PM
Kind of, imo.

There's just no one buying any more. BTC are just not worth $10/coin as an anonymous trade tool, so they'll go back to their mean of like $4 or something, all will despair, and it'll get back to business building from scratch. It'll take about a year to shake off the resentment from speculators, which is probably a good thing giving time for the currency to sort out a few more of its issues.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: bonker on August 03, 2011, 07:32:02 PM
Kind of, imo.

There's just no one buying any more. BTC are just not worth $10/coin as an anonymous trade tool, so they'll go back to their mean of like $4 or something, all will despair, and it'll get back to business building from scratch. It'll take about a year to shake off the resentment from speculators, which is probably a good thing giving time for the currency to sort out a few more of its issues.

$4 is starting to look likely, MtGox ask has just dipped below $10 already, holy shit!


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: compro01 on August 03, 2011, 07:41:19 PM
$4 is starting to look likely, MtGox ask has just dipped below $10 already, holy shit!

and tradehill is now below $9.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: achillez on August 03, 2011, 09:11:08 PM
... sigh $50 in electricity wasted for my 5 bitcoins ...


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: Bind on August 03, 2011, 09:17:11 PM
It is not a crash.

It's the free market correcting itself.



Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: MatthewLM on August 03, 2011, 09:31:09 PM
The crash from 30 already happened. I think people are getting bored with bitcoin, maybe they expected the "bitcoin economy" to rise in no time at all. Too little patience. Maybe after some time speculators got scared about the risks.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: Neptune on August 03, 2011, 09:40:37 PM
It is not a crash.

It's the free market correcting itself.



Dude you are definately doing something wrong!!! 


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: bonker on August 03, 2011, 10:46:54 PM
It is not a crash.

It's the free market correcting itself.

Thanks for that, it makes poverty much easier to live with.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: ManOfKnight on August 03, 2011, 10:56:02 PM
Personally I believe bitcoins were raised in price too quickly because of the press.  I would like to see them in the single digits for a while, it would make them more stable.  For some reason when a person sees them drop from 10 to 8...it is harder than watching them drop from 8 to 6, even though percentage-wise the 8 to 6 was a larger drop.  Bitcoins are still new and if they are to survive they must grow steadily and slowly, instead of in bursts.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: compro01 on August 04, 2011, 02:04:28 PM
and we're back up to 11 now.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: bonker on August 04, 2011, 02:12:03 PM
and we're back up to 11 now.

Bull run!!



Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: compro01 on August 04, 2011, 02:28:32 PM
and we're back up to 11 now.

Bull run!!



or a dead cat bounce.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: walidzohair on August 04, 2011, 03:13:58 PM
The word among the horde in UK that bitcoin will vanish by the end of august. I dunno how they got that idea and where from .. but with these prices it sounds just about right!


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: Piper67 on August 04, 2011, 03:25:21 PM
The word among the horde in UK that bitcoin will vanish by the end of august. I dunno how they got that idea and where from .. but with these prices it sounds just about right!

Hey, Walid, if you keep posting the same sentence in lots and lots of different threads, maybe it will turn out to be true...

Magical thinking, the last refuge of a small mind, really.  ;D


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: amincd on August 04, 2011, 04:31:05 PM
This should be in speculation.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: walidzohair on August 04, 2011, 09:12:35 PM
The word among the horde in UK that bitcoin will vanish by the end of august. I dunno how they got that idea and where from .. but with these prices it sounds just about right!

Hey, Walid, if you keep posting the same sentence in lots and lots of different threads, maybe it will turn out to be true...

Magical thinking, the last refuge of a small mind, really.  ;D

maybe it is! :D

anyways miners have bills to pay. price tanking is bad for business!


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: The Script on August 06, 2011, 02:36:27 AM
Same old, same old.  Read and learn some before panicking about bitcoin crashing.  Or perhaps just look at charts of bitcoin history.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: kiba on August 06, 2011, 02:57:05 AM
ME GOING TO BUY!  ;D


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: indio007 on August 06, 2011, 03:04:34 AM
I have no doubt someone is gaming bitcoin. Look at the 10 dollar wall. There is no intention to sell that many coins. Someone has been setting up a wall trying to squeeze the price down for 3 weeks. Evertime we get close to the wall a huge lower sell order comes in to push it back down.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: laydum on August 06, 2011, 03:44:32 AM
Everybody start buying and nobody start selling go go go!!. Problem fixed.


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: JCbit on August 06, 2011, 10:46:39 PM
words like crash on this forum
does not do good to increase buyer confidence.

counterproductive; esp since theres like 5 posts like that.
a good percentage of bit coin holders probably have accounts here.
stop causing a frenzy.



Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: Hunterbunter on August 07, 2011, 07:17:05 AM
My random new conspiracy theory for the day:

That guy's CIA visit a few weeks ago resulted in them deciding they want to shut bitcoins down. Since they couldn't close any central servers, they would attack the market and watch people leave of their own accord. Their investment would have to be small to push the price down to nothing ($1m would be nothing, I imagine), make it less than the cost of electricity, and watch people's own fear weaken the system. All they need are some people who know how to manipulate markets (and they're all smart people, right?).




Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: logansryche on August 07, 2011, 07:23:20 AM
My random new conspiracy theory for the day:

That guy's CIA visit a few weeks ago resulted in them deciding they want to shut bitcoins down. Since they couldn't close any central servers, they would attack the market and watch people leave of their own accord. Their investment would have to be small to push the price down to nothing ($1m would be nothing, I imagine), make it less than the cost of electricity, and watch people's own fear weaken the system. All they need are some people who know how to manipulate markets (and they're all smart people, right?).

Doesn't make sense but ok. I mean seriously, the CIA? >.<


Title: Re: Is this The Great Bitcoin Crash?
Post by: miscreanity on August 07, 2011, 08:03:33 AM
... they would attack the market and watch people leave of their own accord. Their investment would have to be small to push the price down to nothing ($1m would be nothing, I imagine), make it less than the cost of electricity, and watch people's own fear weaken the system.

Possible? Yes.

Viable? Initially.

In order to suppress the price, the pressure must be applied continuously. With this the case, money would flow from USD to BTC. Since BTCs cannot be destroyed, buyers could pick them up at $0.01 until all currently existing ~7 million have been bought at a total market value of ~USD$70,000.

As the number of Bitcoins continue to rise, if the value were to continue being suppressed, the total market value could be kept at ~USD$210,000.

However, consider the issues currently facing the US and its currency. Debasement raises the cost of suppression.

Also, there is a maximum amount of BTCs that can be bought. They have to be subsequently mined. Unless the US is going to set up a mining farm to maintain control of all the BTCs generated, sellers will be unlikely to settle for $0.01/BTC. If the lowest price accepted per Bitcoin were to be $1,000 and a block of 50 were being sold, that's $50,000 that the US gov't would have to part with. Taking into consideration the likelihood that people will wise up to this game, the price may very well escalate much higher.

Imagine the minimum asking price at $100,000/BTC or greater. Is the US gov't going to blow $5mm every 10 minutes on this, or will that money wind up in the pockets of cronies and other criminals as they raid the treasury while the nation burns?

If you really want to take this for a spin, let's assume all 8 digits of expansion have been utilized. That comes to about 700 trillion Satoshis. If each one were to sell for $0.01, the grand total would be USD$7 TRILLION! If you buy in now at $0.01 and the suppression continues to the final conclusion, your end asset would be 100 million Bitcoins or $1,000,000 in fairly worthless USD.

In conclusion, if politicians and bankers were to truly be so stupid, I would be first in line to accept what amounts to free money. Hey, this is effectively what they're doing with the banks, only with them it's debt instead of Satoshis.