Bitcoin Forum

So I sent 1.25 BTC to an address  (Large online presence to large online presence)

https://blockchain.info/address/1BaG4QWv2d3WQ4nNvQzuErmrXHeABoz8zW

included in it was 0.003 BTC fee

at 2013-11-20 19:24:35

as I'm writing this at 2013-11-20 20:13:00

Still no confirmation.

That is $1.76 to move ~700, cheap I know but generally speaking that is large.  So how big do the transaction fees need to be to into the current block?

Interesting I would not have expected this, but I should have.  There has not been a block found for over an hour.

https://blockchain.info/

as I'm writing this block 270657 is the last to be found and were over an hour since a new one has been found.

Wow,  Block 270658 has $37M in transactions.  Over an hour between blocks.

It happens.  Sometimes the whole network gets unlucky.  Sometimes it gets lucky too but most people don't notice that.

The odds of >40 minutes between blocks is roughly ~2%.  On average it will happen roughly once a day.
The odds of >60 minutes between blocks is roughly ~0.2%.  On average it will happen roughly once a month.
The odds of >90 minutes between blocks is roughly ~0.01%.  On average it will happen roughly once a year.
The odds of >120 minutes between blocks is roughly ~0% (tiny number).  On average it will happen roughly once every decade.
The odds of >150 minutes between blocks is roughly ~0% (tiny number).  On average it will happen roughly once every century.

Note the ranges are rounded to nearest full unit (day, month, etc) to make it easier to understand/relate on relative rarity.  I sacrificed a small amount of accuracy to come up with ranges that are easy to understand.


Of course all that also assumes the network isn't under attack and the actual hashrate is roughly equal to the hashrate required for current difficulty.