Bitcoin Forum

Non-Chinese exchanges had a bounce from the 400's. China is only up slightly from its low.

True however China's price in USD equivelent is still higher than any USD exchange (4200 CNY is ~$690 USD).  

What is interesting is the spread between exchanges has narrowed.
From the bottom China rose the least and Bitstamp rose the most.  The gap between all three exchanges is now smaller than at the peak.
Not sure what that means (if anything) but I thought it interesting.

Volume in China is still (as of now) higher than elsewhere. For what that is worth.

That's just because the transaction fees are 0. There are actually fewer bitcoins involved altogether.

Good point about the spread. At the risk of mentioning the obvious, when a lower exchange increases and the higher exchange only increases slightly you will have less of a gap. What that means for the future price I don't know.

I'm thinking that if today's rally was significant that the Chinese would participate too. Perhaps this means that the non-Chinese exchanges will eventually decrease in line with the Chinese price.

Its very bullish that China is not participating in my opinion. The Chinese need to come back in line with the other exchanges for us to move upward. Look at the 2 pullbacks thus far in this rally. Both happened when the exchanges got way out of wack. It just creates more uncertainty and instability.

No doubt, when we go up again, China will break out from the pack, but for now they need to let the other exchanges catch up.

Also, I am SURE some people are involved in arbitrage right now, and as things are moving more slowly arbitrage is going to bring the markets back in line.

Which is more likely?  Americans/etc have started buying, or Chinese have looked at the spread and realized their exchange is overpriced?

Bitstamp had a crap ton of money (about 4 days worth) finally hit their exchange today.  Meanwhile, the Chinese are watching the US markets in my opinion and they are arbitraging them as well.

yeah...4fkn days too late....I was chomping at bit to get back onboard bubble gravy train right up until it became plainly obvious that a flash crash was afoot.

China is participating in their own way:

https://i.imgur.com/JnIZjgn.png

This number has nearly doubled since the crash.

what does this mean?

The amount of btc in buy orders on btcchina has nearly doubled in two days. The same thing has happened on other exchanges. Bitstamp went from 7 million dollars to 14 million dollars. btce went from 3.5 million dollars to 6.5 million dollars. Gox is now sitting at 29 million dollars (from 27). Any kind of crash would be met with massive support and not go very deep.

Of course the number has nearly doubled -- the price has nearly halved.

That doesn't mean there is more fiat on the order books. It means the buyers have devalued BTC and are only willing to buy lower. The real question is, how will this trend continue?

I'm referring to the fiat number actually. Price halfing + fiat doubling = 4 times more support in btc.

The volume was always low.  People just stuck their fingers in their ears and didn't want to hear it.

Am I the only one that thinks this is bearish?

We are still bursting this bubble. China had to come up but didnt. Now its dragging the other exchanges down. Since China was leading most parts of this rally in either direction I think its showing the way once again.

I do as evidenced by this statement in my post above:

"I'm thinking that if today's rally was significant that the Chinese would participate too. Perhaps this means that the non-Chinese exchanges will eventually decrease in line with the Chinese price."

Maybe someone figured out an arb opportunity? I mean with the 50% premium at times, it would make a lot of sense to me.

Any kind of crash? Maybe the manipulators waited for the new fiat to reach the exchanges to take maximum profits, and soon it will be harvest time.

Agree, I think medium term trend is down. In addition, people keep pointing to the media hype. Unfortunately this also works in cycles. Pressure on editors will move to writing contrary viewpoints, or they will move onto other topics for 6 months.

Well, it hasn't fallen more than 50%, so doesn't look like bursting of a bubble and price started growing again. So, technically it was a correction.

So everyone here is absolutely sure that it's a dead cat bounce?  :'(

During a dead cat bounce to the amount of bids on all the major exchanges suddenly double in fiat value? Do 20k btc walls form above the low? Did this happen in April?

Yes, we had a bullish run to $160.

If it's obvious, it's not a trap.

It does NOT look like a dead cat bounce to me. Sure, we will struggle up for a while, but the bid depth is incredible, and China hasn't even awoken yet. Gox is only $60 to reaching some resistance levels that IF it breaks, confirms NO DEAD CAT BOUNCE.

死猫反弹, said the wise old man from the Far East.

I say the wildcard is newcomers that haven't been verified at the exchanges yet. People that read about the senate hearing in the news etc. We may well see a down trend, but I'd give it until sometime next week before really knowing. It takes some time to get verified after all.

So I'm wondering, why are we talking about peaks that didn't last as if it was the base price? A rise to 900 for a few hours before it drops to 600 which is higher than it was mere days before is not a "crash" to me, I look at it as a temporary anomaly on the way up a steady rise. Am I missing something here?

No, you are dead on.

All the other crashes took days/weeks to play out fully so we're not outta the woods yet...

it was short and sharp if that was the crash.  I would even just call it a correction

This, plus it takes weeks before reading more about Bitcoin and be sure Bitcoin is realy worth.

Didn't the bounce happen already? Few hours after the initial fall the price bounced back to around 650$ and fell down again to ~400$. The price is slowly going up for 2 days now - imo it's not going to fall much further. There is going to be some back and forth as people gain their confidence in the current price and then we should pass 700 again. There will be a wall near the previous top as always, so it may take a few weeks until we get there but for now it's going up much faster than people predicted.

Because in China , cats don't bounce.

lamest crash ever...

In China, cats get boiled alive and then eaten.

I thing the title should change soon to "China is not participating in this double top"

Thanks for the input. You are correct.

Looks like the people of the Chin Dynasty are running up the price again. I am guessing we see an all-time high before midnight tonight Beijing time. It's now 4:22pm Beijing time.

all time Yuan or USD high or both?

The USD markets are driving it or I'm watching different charts. BTCE and Bitstamp reached their high yesterday while China was barely above 5000cny.

Not Btc-e. Only Bitstamp. And Mt.Gox is close today.

Sorry for not elaborating. I was referring to USD.

Gox went up to 890 which is just 10 short of the ATH of 900.

While slower, volume in China seems healthier, which gives me some comfort because the volume in USD exchanges seems quite lower than a week ago.

The most obvious explanation for all of these observations is that arbitrageurs are beginning to be more effective.  As time has progressed, the monetary bandwidth between the exchanges has increased, and markets are converging.  Consolidated views of the markets are, therefore, increasingly important to traders.