Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: kiwiasian on August 04, 2011, 03:00:04 AM



Title: Lesson learned.
Post by: kiwiasian on August 04, 2011, 03:00:04 AM
Always have a little bit of money in Dwolla. Especially during a sell panic like this one and coins are running cheap.

Uh, my deposit is expected to clear in 6 days. Woohoo.

My last one took 2 days, meh.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: FlipPro on August 04, 2011, 03:02:47 AM
Always have a little bit of money in Dwolla. Especially during a sell panic like this one and coins are running cheap.

Uh, my deposit is expected to clear in 6 days. Woohoo.

My last one took 2 days, meh.
I think they are going to start taking longer so that deposits can be verified properly. That's great if you ask me, and it shows that they are taking this whole tradehill incident very seriously.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: kiwiasian on August 04, 2011, 03:26:21 AM
That's good I suppose. We will just always have to have some money in our accounts just in case so we don't need to end up waiting this long.

How long does PayPal's transfer take?


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: Edward50 on August 04, 2011, 03:52:51 AM
Always have a little bit of money in Dwolla. Especially during a sell panic like this one and coins are running cheap.

Uh, my deposit is expected to clear in 6 days. Woohoo.

My last one took 2 days, meh.

Don't worry, in 6 days you will be able to buy cheaper than today. We always break into new lows, then it will rise a couple dollars higher, only to break into even newer lows. So by the time your Dwolla account is funded you will probably be buying lower than $8.00


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: Mousepotato on August 04, 2011, 03:54:25 AM
Don't worry, in 6 days you will be able to buy cheaper than today. We always break into new lows, then it will rise a couple dollars higher, only to break into even newer lows. So by the time your Dwolla account is funded you will probably be buying lower than $8.00

Doubt it. I just sold it all at $9.99, so therefor it can only go up from here.  That's just how things work  :P


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: kiwiasian on August 04, 2011, 04:17:55 AM
Always have a little bit of money in Dwolla. Especially during a sell panic like this one and coins are running cheap.

Uh, my deposit is expected to clear in 6 days. Woohoo.

My last one took 2 days, meh.

Don't worry, in 6 days you will be able to buy cheaper than today. We always break into new lows, then it will rise a couple dollars higher, only to break into even newer lows. So by the time your Dwolla account is funded you will probably be buying lower than $8.00

I'm not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: FlipPro on August 04, 2011, 04:21:34 AM
Always have a little bit of money in Dwolla. Especially during a sell panic like this one and coins are running cheap.

Uh, my deposit is expected to clear in 6 days. Woohoo.

My last one took 2 days, meh.

Don't worry, in 6 days you will be able to buy cheaper than today. We always break into new lows, then it will rise a couple dollars higher, only to break into even newer lows. So by the time your Dwolla account is funded you will probably be buying lower than $8.00
Really? Not going to happen… People will not sell at a loss, and I think you are milking the cow a bit too much :). Today was an excellent day to buy; and if you didn't buy at the single digits you missed your chance IMHO. Me and hopefully other community leaders will be stepping forward to educate other members with any knowledge that is at our disposal.

People think that mining is just about turning on a computer switch, and printing money out of thin air. I can tell you that this is simply not the case, it takes expertise in various computer related subjects, it takes alot of time, and most importantly it takes lots of money! Most people are breaking even at this point with the current difficulty of 1,890,362, and guess what without incentive if these people quit mining and the network dies, what happens to YOUR Bitcoins?  

This will kill the block chain or weaken it to the point of irrelevancy. A miners’ strike has been brewing for a long time now… We seriously don’t get the respect we deserve for our time and investments. We control the price, not the people who can’t make these coins. Without us there would be no coins to begin with! We set the prices…Remember that guys, and everything will be wonderful & peachy in Bitcoin Land!   8)


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: Houdini on August 04, 2011, 04:25:35 AM
Man what a moaner you are, must be PMS...   :P


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: kiwiasian on August 04, 2011, 04:36:18 AM
Man what a moaner you are, must be PMS...   :P

I sincerely apologize for expressing my views publicy.

o_o?


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: grod on August 04, 2011, 06:27:28 AM
We control the price, not the people who can’t make these coins.


You are wrong.  Miners cough up less than 8000 coins a day (7200 is the intent).  Daily volume is anywhere between 4 and 10x that.  So, even if miners sell 100% of their coins or don't sell any of their coins the impact on the market is smaller than investor sentiment.

And even at $10 mining is still profitable.  Profitable enough that even current levels aren't going to be sustained.   Look for higher difficulty AND lower prices in the coming months.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: kookiekrak on August 04, 2011, 06:29:19 AM
man im pissed i withdrew my 300 from mtgox. this woulda been perfect to snatch up a ton of cheap bitcoins.

prices will endup around 13-14ish by the end of the week


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: fastandfurious on August 04, 2011, 10:08:37 AM
man im pissed i withdrew my 300 from mtgox. this woulda been perfect to snatch up a ton of cheap bitcoins.

prices will endup around 13-14ish by the end of the week

And if it doesn't? Lets say it will end up at 8 dollars on Sunday.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: bitbot on August 04, 2011, 04:05:02 PM
you should just keep money in mtgox. but then the website crashes and your money gets stolen


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: Nagle on August 04, 2011, 04:28:28 PM
People will not sell at a loss.
Sure they will, when they realize that the only alternative is selling at a bigger loss later.

Bitcoin was a bubble, like tulips, and it's over.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&width=800&r=180
Bitcoin, last 6 months.

We're in the long, slow slide phase. Remember, Bitcoin generates no revenue. It's a pure speculation. So it can go all the way to 0.

Bitcoin as a currency has failed. There's too much volatility. Even the Silk Road people are fed up. Getting money in and out of Bitcoins is slow and unreliable. None of the exchanges offer a guaranteed settlement time.  The intermediate "exchangers", Dwolla and Liberty Reserve, are all flaky. "Global Standard Bank" pretends to be a bank, but isn't. MyBitcoin.com, which ran an online wallet service, apparently shut down and took all the money. That's no basis for a currency.

It's over. Get out and go do something else.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: bitbot on August 04, 2011, 04:38:21 PM
i like how they censored that chart


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: ampirebus on August 04, 2011, 04:39:57 PM
People will not sell at a loss.
Sure they will, when they realize that the only alternative is selling at a bigger loss later.

Bitcoin was a bubble, like tulips, and it's over.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&width=800&r=180
Bitcoin, last 6 months.

We're in the long, slow slide phase. Remember, Bitcoin generates no revenue. It's a pure speculation. So it can go all the way to 0.

Bitcoin as a currency has failed. There's too much volatility. Even the Silk Road people are fed up. Getting money in and out of Bitcoins is slow and unreliable. None of the exchanges offer a guaranteed settlement time.  The intermediate "exchangers", Dwolla and Liberty Reserve, are all flaky. "Global Standard Bank" pretends to be a bank, but isn't. MyBitcoin.com, which ran an online wallet service, apparently shut down and took all the money. That's no basis for a currency.

It's over. Get out and go do something else.

yeah i might as well buy CDOs, a 401k, a roth IRA, and all of the US dollars i possibly can because nothing bad ever happened to those financial isntruments losing people money...


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: EhVedadoOAnonimato on August 04, 2011, 04:46:54 PM
It's over. Get out and go do something else.

You should follow your own advice more than anyone else.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: indio007 on August 04, 2011, 06:01:46 PM
Even making these outrageous assumption the annual return on investment is 20%. If you no where to get a 20% interest rate on a $1000 deposit please tell us.

You naysayers are foolish. This ain't no  zero sum game. You have to compare mining to all other forms of increase. Obviously at $10 per BTC it's still an order of magnitude over a deposit account.

https://docs.google.com/document/pubimage?id=1XR4M0NGko0117a98cEvLMi8lCklAGHPDYyH5Yc9kD98&image_id=1SKdaY2ddwWnMbNCmF4ApNZ9zxeS1HA


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: Caffarius on August 04, 2011, 06:06:16 PM
Even making these outrageous assumption the annual return on investment is 20%. If you no where to get a 20% interest rate on a $1000 deposit please tell us.

You naysayers are foolish. This ain't no  zero sum game. You have to compare mining to all other forms of increase. Obviously at $10 per BTC it's still an order of magnitude over a deposit account.

https://docs.google.com/document/pubimage?id=1XR4M0NGko0117a98cEvLMi8lCklAGHPDYyH5Yc9kD98&image_id=1SKdaY2ddwWnMbNCmF4ApNZ9zxeS1HA
As much as I'd love to think the difficulty would stay in this area for the next 12 months, I don't think that's how it works.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: indio007 on August 04, 2011, 06:42:10 PM
Even with the difficulty increase I can see anyone making less than 5% real world. I used high end assumptions for initial cost and power consumption. The electricity price was more the median price. Even then if the price of BTC drops to $1 you will make .5% YoY. Which is better than a zero-interest checking account.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: Nagle on August 04, 2011, 08:15:27 PM

The calculator at http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php (http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php) is broken. If you change the USD/BTC conversion
rate, the power cost per day changes.  Oops.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: GenTarkin on August 04, 2011, 08:23:08 PM
Um...it doesnt function that way for me... It stays the same... just tested it!


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: Nagle on August 04, 2011, 09:25:11 PM
Um...it doesnt function that way for me... It stays the same... just tested it!
OK, I see.  Where they write "less power costs", that's after the subtraction, not before.


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: Houdini on August 07, 2011, 12:12:27 AM
If you know where to get a 20% interest rate on a $1000 deposit please tell us.
Simple, find someone really desperate and loan 1000$ to them. Then a little later get 2000$ back from them. If they aren't inclined to pay up, incourage them by breaking their legs. If they don't have any money sell their furniture, their car, their daughter, or their organs. There's always some way to collect the debt. Just don't let the law find out.
 :D


Title: Re: Lesson learned.
Post by: YoYa on August 07, 2011, 12:32:15 AM
Really? Not going to happen… People will not sell at a loss, and I think you are milking the cow a bit too much :). Today was an excellent day to buy; and if you didn't buy at the single digits you missed your chance IMHO. Me and hopefully other community leaders will be stepping forward to educate other members with any knowledge that is at our disposal.

People think that mining is just about turning on a computer switch, and printing money out of thin air. I can tell you that this is simply not the case, it takes expertise in various computer related subjects, it takes alot of time, and most importantly it takes lots of money! Most people are breaking even at this point with the current difficulty of 1,890,362, and guess what without incentive if these people quit mining and the network dies, what happens to YOUR Bitcoins?  

This will kill the block chain or weaken it to the point of irrelevancy. A miners’ strike has been brewing for a long time now… We seriously don’t get the respect we deserve for our time and investments. We control the price, not the people who can’t make these coins. Without us there would be no coins to begin with! We set the prices…Remember that guys, and everything will be wonderful & peachy in Bitcoin Land!   8)

http://www.the-vibe.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/margaret-thatcher_1725675c.jpg.pagespeed.ce.-fp6-apikH.jpg

THIS COIN IS NOT FOR TURNING!