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Title: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: pera on November 21, 2013, 10:18:07 PM Wow! just wow, what the fuck is going on here? how is this possible?? yesterday I expected a a rebound to 650, max 700, but not to this: we are still going up :o
At this point I'm thinking if it would be possible to keep going up until 1000 and stay there, seems ridiculous since never happened before in Bitcoin... does anyone knows about an extreme fast peak that never went down? ??? Even the log graph shows we are above the expected price for this period, but what happen if the market is accelerating exponentially? are we going to keep growing from this point? https://i.imgur.com/WdXSNON.png I can't understand this anymore, it doesn't seems real, why now? the only thing I can do with my btcs now is paying for delivery service, some web services, and buying some giftcards... but well, now it seems obvious that is not about what you can do with btcs but that "everybody knows" that bitcoin is going to keep growing til at least 100.000! And now I can only think that maybe China is going to adopt Bitcoin for real, letting millionaires all around the world inject money to their banks without asking shit, a la Switzerland! should I turn bull again? are we in a real new paradigm? Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: windjc on November 21, 2013, 10:21:10 PM I'm not sure why but this post cracks me up. You sound a little like a foreign cartoon character.
"Super" Paradigm to the moon! Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: vitalemontea on November 21, 2013, 10:34:22 PM Chinese just buy and hold, they don't day trade
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: MAbtc on November 21, 2013, 10:34:38 PM Yep, new paradigm in effect. Some around the forum are advising others to take mortgages on their houses to buy bitcoins. Lunacy.
New paradigm!!! Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: antimattercrusader on November 21, 2013, 10:35:22 PM Time (not discrete as I found out on another post) will tell what happens, but there is no law of physics that forbids the current price to hold and be the new base. Although I think that chart is a bit off.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: wobber on November 21, 2013, 10:50:35 PM If price soars 750 on bitstamp people should sell a kidney, do 2-3 mortgages, take some loans, sell their car and buy Bitcoins!
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: sgbett on November 21, 2013, 10:52:58 PM ...does anyone knows about an extreme fast peak that never went down? ???... Small Pharmaceuticals do it... sometimes.... Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: bitcon on November 21, 2013, 10:54:56 PM i'm telling you guys. this time its different. :)
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Mirsad on November 21, 2013, 10:56:32 PM i'm telling you guys. this time its different. :) Yeah. We are going to the moon. ::) Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Ibian on November 21, 2013, 11:01:14 PM Come on people, how often does it need to be said? Not a bubble. Demand is increasing, supply is limited, ever rising price is exactly what is to be expected.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: torrentheaven on November 21, 2013, 11:01:56 PM "everybody knows" that bitcoin is going to keep growing til at least 100.000! This. Why sell now :P Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: MoreFun on November 21, 2013, 11:19:10 PM Playing the bear game is the stupidest thing one can do (same is true also for bulls if conditions are met, but surely not now). I learnt that and probably many on the forum. You better to learn on small money than big one. You play the bear game when you made a bad trade and want the price to go down. It is all psyhological and your emotions are a big part of this.
You need to observe the market. Publicity is high, trend was up, serious and not pocket money started appearing (maybe this was not seen on gox so much because of their problems), lots of hoarding, mentality changed on the forum... Imagine playing a bear at $100, $150, $250... Till now. It would hurt my heart being an emotional bear to not ride this train. Anyhow, many are still lonely bears after SR, many bough back. And yea, maybe it is not so different than prevoius rides, but this one is definetely not the same. Make a plan and stick to it when you make a good trade. Remember we can go 100x higher, but you can only lost max 1x. Chooo chooooo. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: donjoe on November 21, 2013, 11:42:55 PM Wow! just wow, what the fuck is going on here? how is this possible?? [...] I can't understand this anymore, it doesn't seems real, why now? ^--- This.Quote should I turn bull again? are we in a real new paradigm? As a general rule, you should always try to have a percentage of your play money invested in BTC in direct proportion to how probable you think it is that the price will rise. At this point, the graph is doing things we've never(?) seen it do before, so I wouldn't assign any overwhelming probabilities to any outcome yet. It's probably OK to start cautiously getting back in, but this isn't a good time to bet the farm - it's still possible somebody's playing us.Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Boxman90 on November 21, 2013, 11:47:19 PM Remember we can go 100x higher, but you can only lost max 1x. With lottery tickets we can go 10.000.000x, but you can only lose max 1x. Better all hoard lottery tickets. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: vps15 on November 21, 2013, 11:51:37 PM whats the big deal? someone had enough and sold off. maybe its shaken the market for a few days, but nothing detrimental. spineless noobs are selling now, but as confidence comes back the upward motion will overtake this weakness and it will finally be time to eat 1000
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: barbs on November 21, 2013, 11:51:58 PM it's unreal how fast it's growing.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: MoreFun on November 21, 2013, 11:52:40 PM Remember we can go 100x higher, but you can only lost max 1x. With lottery tickets we can go 10.000.000x, but you can only lose max 1x. Better all hoard lottery tickets. Lottery tickets odds are always much against you, bitcoin odds growth was historical always greatly on your side and paid off and potential could be seen as high even today if not year ago. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: gusti on November 21, 2013, 11:53:20 PM Yep, new paradigm in effect. Some around the forum are advising others to take mortgages on their houses to buy bitcoins. Lunacy. New paradigm!!! Selling one's kidney, maybe ? Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Cryddit on November 21, 2013, 11:55:32 PM I've figured out a valuation theory of Bitcoin. It may turn out to be wrong but it is completely okay with the current state of affairs.
In a nutshell we are looking at the result of people hoarding coin. The price is inflated for the value its providing now but it's still not up to the value it can provide eventually. The fact is that Bitcoin solves a multi trillion dollar need for a way to transfer funds. It isn't there yet though. Right now it's providing maybe a few tens of millions in value and the rest of the price is due to hoarding. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: raskolnikovx on November 21, 2013, 11:56:03 PM Sell some when Bitcoin is this high and rebuy when cheeper. I think its gonna get stable somewhere between 500 and 600 ...
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Rampion on November 21, 2013, 11:58:00 PM this thread is such a bearish indicator it hurts.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: bassclef on November 22, 2013, 12:17:56 AM I'm sure the thread title was chosen on purpose.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: mearylll on November 22, 2013, 12:37:11 AM The fact is that Bitcoin solves a multi trillion dollar need for a way to transfer funds. It isn't there yet though. Right now it's providing maybe a few tens of millions in value and the rest of the price is due to hoarding. It is true current exchanges have very few millions available in buy orders, Bitcoin will be less volatile and more useable when it is traded at wall street Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Spekulatius on November 22, 2013, 12:48:14 AM The latest rebound is a bit overextended, I agree (I thought 670 would be the top). There is a good chance for a solid double top with mighty bearish consequences.
Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: TheWoodser on November 22, 2013, 12:53:44 AM Yep, new paradigm in effect. Some around the forum are advising others to take mortgages on their houses to buy bitcoins. Lunacy. New paradigm!!! +1 on the Lunacy......and my old lady would leave me...... Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Odrec on November 22, 2013, 12:54:36 AM You can also enroll on an University with bitcoin :)
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-cyprus-university-bitcoin-20131120,0,3194094.story#axzz2lKbZwlS1 Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Miz4r on November 22, 2013, 01:02:22 AM There's no new paradigm, there also isn't actually a real bubble (yet). We went parabolic for a short while and then had a pretty sizable correction pretty much all the way back to where the parabolic rise had started. This is perfectly normal and not a crash or 'bubblepop' like some would claim. Bitcoin is getting really popular right now and lots of new money is arriving at the exchanges wanting to buy so the correction will be kinda shortlived I think. This correction may not yet completely be over though, but I do think we have already seen the bottom. The top of this 'bubble' will in my opinion be somewhere between $2000 and $3000, after which the hype subsides a bit and we go back to $1000 or so (either in a dramatic crash or a painfully long bear market, or both :P). If bitcoin infrastructure grows well and it becomes more noob friendly in the future then the sky really will be the limit, but we're not that far yet. :)
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: SkRRJyTC on November 22, 2013, 01:05:25 AM There's no new paradigm, there also isn't actually a real bubble (yet). We went parabolic for a short while and then had a pretty sizable correction pretty much all the way back to where the parabolic rise had started. This is perfectly normal and not a crash or 'bubblepop' like some would claim. Bitcoin is getting really popular right now and lots of new money is arriving at the exchanges wanting to buy so the correction will be kinda shortlived I think. This correction may not yet completely be over though, but I do think we have already seen the bottom. The top of this 'bubble' will in my opinion be somewhere between $2000 and $3000, after which the hype subsides a bit and we go back to $1000 or so (either in a dramatic crash or a painfully long bear market, or both :P). If bitcoin infrastructure grows well and it becomes more noob friendly in the future then the sky really will be the limit, but we're not that far yet. :) 100% with you. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: jatajuta on November 22, 2013, 01:13:20 AM This happened before.
A quick pic from march of this year, guess where we went after that... Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: jatajuta on November 22, 2013, 01:20:30 AM Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: ElectricMucus on November 22, 2013, 01:24:46 AM Now the fun part: Draw a trend "line" on the log chart, one time at the former, then try to do the same on the latter.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: windjc on November 22, 2013, 01:27:40 AM This happened before. A quick pic from march of this year, guess where we went after that... Yep, and based on that chart we have about 8-9 days before we break $1000. Which seems about right. We have a lot of resistance to go through. However, we also have SO much more new fiat going into the exchanges, so it very well might take less time than that. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: pera on November 22, 2013, 01:37:02 AM The difference is the speed and the grow in volume: now we are going almost two times faster but the volume didn't changed much since that period (and this considering btcchina volume as real)
??? Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: meanig on November 22, 2013, 01:55:09 AM The MTGOX bid-sum increased by $7,000,000 today. It went from $28million to $35million. That's largest single day jump I've ever seen and $35 million is a new bid-sum record too.
Crazy times indeed :o Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Boxman90 on November 22, 2013, 01:06:23 PM The latest rebound is a bit overextended, I agree (I thought 670 would be the top). There is a good chance for a solid double top with mighty bearish consequences. Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm. At what percentage within the previous top does one usually speak of "double top"? Right now it's within 1.3% of the previous top at Bitstamp. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Blazey on November 22, 2013, 01:17:33 PM The latest rebound is a bit overextended, I agree (I thought 670 would be the top). There is a good chance for a solid double top with mighty bearish consequences. Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm. At what percentage within the previous top does one usually speak of "double top"? Right now it's within 1.3% of the previous top at Bitstamp. i believe the history is still to young for the paradigm, we just started and we are picking up newbies investing in btc. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: MGUK on November 22, 2013, 02:34:14 PM From
http://www.solerinvestments.com/Online-Trading/Stock-Market-Crash.htm Quote Previous Bubbles have included: The Japanese "Take Over the World" Bubble of the late 1980's The Asian Currency Bubble of the mid 1990's The Internet/High Tech Bubble of the late 1990's The Residential Real Estate Bubble of 2000-2003 The coming Inflationary Bubble caused by the U.S. Government's attempt to mitigate the effects of the crash of these Bubbles and 9/11. How Bubbles Grow: 12 Easy Steps 1. A believable concept offers a revolutionary and unlimited path to growth. 2. Surplus of funds and lack of opportunities lead to buying or investing in anything available. 3. An idea is complex and cannot be totally explained or related to an investor. 4. The crowd imitates the leader. All Aboard! Even the gardener has a tip!? 5. Prices fluctuate from traditional level to overvalued level, THEN to all new ground and all time highs. 6. New levels are sanctioned by experts. "We are in a new Paradigm!" 7. Fear of missing the boat takes over. Cloning of the idea occurs as many new overvalued competitors enter the market. 8. Lending practices are eased. Money flows like water to anything or anyone with a new idea. 9. Cult figures emerge for the new paradigm. The media promotes lifestyles, not substance. 10. The Bubble lasts longer than expected. Critics are dismissed. The last suckers are sucked in. 11. Fraud emerges as partly responsible for the bubble as the first cracks show in the bubble. 12. Finally, everyone has a reason why it cannot continue. But nobody dumps, and all hold onto their profits. No new buyers. Market stalls. How a Bubble Bursts 1. A continued new supply of lower priced offerings occurs from rising prices. New IPO's get bigger and bigger 2. There is a rise in interest costs. The Government declares "Excessive Exuberance" and tightens credit too quickly. 3. Prices collapse and everyone heads for the exits at the same time. With no more buyers, prices hit free fall. 4. Fraud is uncovered in many diverse industries, and in monitoring and auditing agencies. This leads to more selling. 5. Governments intervene and give investors time to get out before the real decline. Rules to Live By 1. Do not extrapolate the future from the present. 2. Trends continue for a long time (2-5 years) and then suddenly reverse chaotically. Witness the Tech Bubble. 3. Intermittent secondary corrections occur at Fibonacci Levels of 38%, 50% and 62% that result in classic Bull or Bear Traps. 4. Bottom picking begins several different times, trying to restart the Bubble, but to no avail. Massive losses occur to professionals trying to manipulate the markets. 5. Finally everyone recognizes that "Trends go further than you expect, and last longer than expected." Everyone gives up and sells. 6. As the volume of the decline decreases, a slow recovery begins. Yes, I know there isn't really any credentials backing this up. Yes, I know Bitcoin is not the stock market. Yes, I know we should look to the past for answers to the present or future. I'm adding this because it's interesting and others may find it's a useful contribution to the discussion. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: MGUK on November 22, 2013, 02:36:42 PM Actually, the more I read that in the context of this and other posts, the more I realise most of those points should really be highlighted.
Again though, correlation != causation. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: pera on November 23, 2013, 09:48:11 PM Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior?
https://i.imgur.com/3LIwQvI.png low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable... ??? Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: ElectricMucus on November 23, 2013, 09:52:08 PM Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior? It doesn't really cost much to prop up the price a little after a dump. When dumping into a low slippage orderbook like that it would even be stupid not to. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Ibian on November 23, 2013, 10:27:32 PM What's to explain? Limited supply, rising demand, therefore rising price. Low volume also means low local availability of limited supplies, which pushes the price up more than if there was a high volume. The downside to low volume is higher volatility, but this problem will disappear over time as the available funds are spread over more hands.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Odalv on November 23, 2013, 10:36:25 PM Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior? low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable... ??? Penny stock. When Bitcoin will worth $100,000/btc then it will change. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Odalv on November 23, 2013, 10:46:42 PM Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior? low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable... ??? There are a lot of 15 years old children, who mined thousand of BTC 2 years ago. :-) Or they are mining LTC now and sell LTC for BTC (another noobs buy this ALT shit) ... and finally they sell BTC for USD to you. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Mondy on November 24, 2013, 01:32:19 AM aahaaha everyones face now! Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: TERA on November 24, 2013, 01:38:03 AM It's not "the bubble that doesn't pop". It's "the bubble that isn't over". This is a consolidation before the next leg up.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: notme on November 24, 2013, 01:40:47 AM It's not "the bubble that doesn't pop". It's "the bubble that isn't over". This is a consolidation before the next leg up. You can not pop the bubble. That is impossible. Instead, you must realize the truth. What truth? There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: shmadz on November 24, 2013, 03:18:28 AM It's not "the bubble that doesn't pop". It's "the bubble that isn't over". This is a consolidation before the next leg up. You can not pop the bubble. That is impossible. Instead, you must realize the truth. What truth? There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself. epic Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Qoheleth on November 24, 2013, 09:02:31 PM Memories are short, it seems.
The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak. The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, lasted three months. As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young? Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: billym2k on November 24, 2013, 09:07:36 PM Memories are short, it seems. The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak. The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, was three months. As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young? What's considered the 'kickoff' for these estimates? Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Qoheleth on November 24, 2013, 09:15:58 PM Memories are short, it seems. The first BTC bubble, in 2011, was two months from kick-off to peak. The second BTC bubble, which should be so recent as to be fresh in your memories, was three months. As for the present trend, it's only been six weeks since big upwards movement began. Why is it mystifying that we haven't gone from binge to hangover when the night is still young? What's considered the 'kickoff' for these estimates? https://i.imgur.com/o98Av76.png Apr-Jun 2011 (https://i.imgur.com/o98Av76.png) https://i.imgur.com/bDHKAdZ.png Jan-Apr 2013 (https://i.imgur.com/bDHKAdZ.png) https://i.imgur.com/obty986.png Oct 2013-Today (https://i.imgur.com/obty986.png) Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: billym2k on November 24, 2013, 09:26:52 PM Hm yeah. Seems to have begun after Silk Road so we're nearing 2 months into it.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: kireinaha on November 24, 2013, 10:56:03 PM I forgot that the bubble in april lasted 2 months. I don't know why but it seemed it was really quick and also really really obvious. I think because it was a pretty slow and gradual upwards momentum for the first few weeks until the very last day or two when it went parabolic and finally crashed. Whereas this time around, we`ve already seen it go parabolic and correct itself, and then back up again almost immediately. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: pera on November 26, 2013, 07:58:46 PM Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: piramida on November 26, 2013, 08:00:17 PM everything pops, but noone knows how high this one would run first. The 900 obviously was just a stop on the way up.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Tzupy on November 26, 2013, 08:01:05 PM If it doesn't stabilize above 900$, IMO it will pop.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Ibian on November 26, 2013, 08:25:12 PM If it doesn't stabilize around $70, it's gonna crash hard.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: pera on December 18, 2013, 09:18:51 PM so... it was a nice ride and I've learned important things and made some profits :)
I only hope the Chinese government change this stupid policy in the near future. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: piramida on December 18, 2013, 10:47:18 PM If it doesn't stabilize around $70, it's gonna crash hard. if it goes to 70, there will be no bitcoin anymore. but it won't. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: ElectricMucus on December 20, 2013, 08:12:48 AM If it doesn't stabilize around $70, it's gonna crash hard. if it goes to 70, there will be no bitcoin anymore. but it won't. Bullshit, the price could go to a cent and Bitcoin would be doing fine. 70 isn't even that far away, it's just the base of this bubble. I know who's the real weak hand... Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Zarathustra on December 20, 2013, 08:28:31 AM If it doesn't stabilize around $70, it's gonna crash hard. if it goes to 70, there will be no bitcoin anymore. but it won't. Bullshit, the price could go to a cent and Bitcoin would be doing fine. 70 isn't even that far away, it's just the base of this bubble. I know who's the real weak hand... Bullshit, as long as Bitcoin is doing fine, it cant' go to a cent. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: piramida on December 20, 2013, 08:43:38 AM If it doesn't stabilize around $70, it's gonna crash hard. if it goes to 70, there will be no bitcoin anymore. but it won't. Bullshit, the price could go to a cent and Bitcoin would be doing fine. 70 isn't even that far away, it's just the base of this bubble. I know who's the real weak hand... I am holding the coins bought in June 2011 during a peak. You? And no, your statement shows you amazingly still don't understand anything about bitcoin. If the price goes to 1cent, it is done. You might use it in your basement, sure, but the plans for worldwide acceptance would be over. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Rampion on December 20, 2013, 09:08:47 AM LOL, this quarrel between you two just reminded me the below 2011 conversation, when price was $11:
My best bet the price of bitcoins will stay the same as it is now for a longer period, possibly till transaction fees become more relevant than mining. Well then you didn't quite read the above thread ElectricMucus :) Demand will not stay at the same level, and transaction fees have little to nothing to do with it. Good call ElectricMucus :D Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: piramida on December 20, 2013, 09:13:28 AM LOL, this quarrel between you two just reminded me the below 2011 conversation, when price was $11: My best bet the price of bitcoins will stay the same as it is now for a longer period, possibly till transaction fees become more relevant than mining. Well then you didn't quite read the above thread ElectricMucus :) Demand will not stay at the same level, and transaction fees have little to nothing to do with it. Good call ElectricMucus :D Wow nice dig, I don't even remember that. To be fair, we do have some transaction fees now. But they are like 5% of mining still, so not more relevant, no :) Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Rampion on December 20, 2013, 09:19:55 AM 5%? More like 0.5% (https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees). Block reward is still orders of magnitude more relevant than fees - and that's not bound to change in the short time.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Odalv on December 20, 2013, 03:26:21 PM If it doesn't stabilize around $70, it's gonna crash hard. if it goes to 70, there will be no bitcoin anymore. but it won't. Bullshit, the price could go to a cent and Bitcoin would be doing fine. 70 isn't even that far away, it's just the base of this bubble. I know who's the real weak hand... Mucus if you invested $100 USD when you registered then you are millionare today. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: dg2010 on December 20, 2013, 04:08:58 PM That's a shitty thing to think about. Back in 2011 I was mostly buying and spending coins, I didn't even think about saving until earlier this year.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: MatTheCat on December 20, 2013, 04:33:09 PM That's a shitty thing to think about. Back in 2011 I was mostly buying and spending coins, I didn't even think about saving until earlier this year. LOL me too. Told all my mates I was gonna invest 500 quid, just to support this 'really cool initiative', bought em, then spent em all, bought more, but spent them as well etc etc. Then I told my mates I was gonna invest 1000 GBP in December 2012, but I was gonna wait till the price came down a bit. See, cos Bitcoin's value was 'obviously' determined by demand for Silk Road purchases, after the festive season, it was gonna slump, see, and then I was gonna pay just $8 for my coin instead of $12! Pure genius! I never started investing large amounts of capital until well into the November 2013 run up, which perhaps explains why I have no tolerance of the 'buy and hold no matter what crowd' that dominate this forum....easily said if you bought in at $20. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: humanitee on December 20, 2013, 04:50:24 PM That's a shitty thing to think about. Back in 2011 I was mostly buying and spending coins, I didn't even think about saving until earlier this year. LOL me too. Told all my mates I was gonna invest 500 quid, just to support this 'really cool initiative', bought em, then spent em all, bought more, but spent them as well etc etc. Then I told my mates I was gonna invest 1000 GBP in December 2012, but I was gonna wait till the price came down a bit. See, cos Bitcoin's value was 'obviously' determined by demand for Silk Road purchases, after the festive season, it was gonna slump, see, and then I was gonna pay just $8 for my coin instead of $12! Pure genius! I never started investing large amounts of capital until well into the November 2013 run up, which perhaps explains why I have no tolerance of the 'buy and hold no matter what crowd' that dominate this forum....easily said if you bought in at $20. Anybody NOT in your position would be fine just holding. The newest batch of noobs have to get burned to learn their lesson. I don't blame them or you for selling. The people from April who bought and held have been rewarded, as have the people from every other bubble. That's why buy and hold is so popular. Invest -> Cash out your initial after a doubling or more -> Give little fucks afterwards = path of happiness Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Rampion on December 20, 2013, 06:57:16 PM If it doesn't stabilize around $70, it's gonna crash hard. if it goes to 70, there will be no bitcoin anymore. but it won't. Bullshit, the price could go to a cent and Bitcoin would be doing fine. 70 isn't even that far away, it's just the base of this bubble. I know who's the real weak hand... Mucus if you invested $100 USD when you registered then you are millionare today. He turned bear too soon. Like 4 days after registering. In 2011 he was already too worried about the "excessive" amount of BTC the early adopters were holding. Ouch. I guess he is more into alts. I feel your pain, Mucus. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Odalv on December 20, 2013, 07:17:41 PM If it doesn't stabilize around $70, it's gonna crash hard. if it goes to 70, there will be no bitcoin anymore. but it won't. Bullshit, the price could go to a cent and Bitcoin would be doing fine. 70 isn't even that far away, it's just the base of this bubble. I know who's the real weak hand... Mucus if you invested $100 USD when you registered then you are millionare today. He turned bear too soon. Like 4 days after registering. In 2011 he was already too worried about the "excessive" amount of BTC the early adopters were holding. Ouch. I guess he is more into alts. I feel your pain, Mucus. Mucus, we are all still early adopters. There are 7,000,000,000 people ... and if only 1% of them will use it then bitcoin price will go 100 times higher. Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: ElectricMucus on December 21, 2013, 10:47:35 AM Mucus, we are all still early adopters. There are 7,000,000,000 people ... and if only 1% of them will use it then bitcoin price will go 100 times higher. Here is the thing, we aren't adopters at all, just speculators. The people who actually use Bitcoins for something else are just a handful of people. Next, the gini coefficient of Bitcoin is higher than in any country, and it shows no sign of coming down. To the contrary, it went up even further. Oh and countries with a high gini coefficient usually have a bad economy or high corruption. (Third world countries.) http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cf/GINI_Index_SVG.svg/856px-GINI_Index_SVG.svg.png Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: ElectricMucus on December 21, 2013, 11:02:16 AM The consensus is that the gini coefficient should be not too low and not too high to archive economic growth. Look it up there is a estimation of the gini coefficient done by zoutong when he still was an active member of this community, the results are very discouraging. It was above 80% and rising, not even accounting for people with multiple wallets.
Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: Wilhelm on December 21, 2013, 12:04:08 PM Mucus, we are all still early adopters. There are 7,000,000,000 people ... and if only 1% of them will use it then bitcoin price will go 100 times higher. Here is the thing, we aren't adopters at all, just speculators. The people who actually use Bitcoins for something else are just a handful of people. Next, the gini coefficient of Bitcoin is higher than in any country, and it shows no sign of coming down. To the contrary, it went up even further. Oh and countries with a high gini coefficient usually have a bad economy or high corruption. (Third world countries.) http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cf/GINI_Index_SVG.svg/856px-GINI_Index_SVG.svg.png Lucky for me my country fades away in the background. And America is a third world country :) Title: Re: New paradigm - the bubble that never pop? Post by: ElectricMucus on December 21, 2013, 01:37:30 PM Haven't you been paying attention? Both low and high gini coefficients are bad for the economy. A low gini coefficient may be ethically favourable, but it doesn't provide as much as an incentive for innovation. This is the case with the most of central Europe. A high gini coefficient deprives the economy of income (insufficient spending)
If Bitcoin were a country on this map it would be pitch black. The closest ones are countries like south Africa with Bitcoin off the Chart. http://workforall.net/assets/Gini-curve.gif |
