Bitcoin Forum

I'm about to send 10k$ to bitstamp and I'm really wondering when i'm going to buy !

Right now I think i'm going to wait for another correction but there is a possibility it will not really correct any time soon...

What would you do if you had 10k$ on bitstamp ?

Same here... not the large amount, but not sure when to buy..

Besides buying a fixed USD amount every day or so you shouldn't just buy bitcoins.

As long as you haven't any fixed ideas on BTC vs altcoins the best would be to invest based on the ratio of marketcaps of the most important cryptos. That's now like 97% in bitcoin, some litecoins and maby a few PPC to round it up.

For me it's almost everything in Bitcoin and <0.1% in LTC and <0.1% in PPC (with PPC>LTC)

And about buying in now? No-one knows or will be able to advise you correctly sorry. I would hate to be buying at ATHs though. If you're going to start, please Dollar cost average a fixed amount each month or something.

I belive this is a very bad decision, but not as bad as just bitcoin. (exept maby PPC>LTC)

Noone can be 99.9% sure that bitcoin will keep it's monopoly on crypto. That's how sure you would have to be to justify your gambling against LTC,PPC here as investment. If it were just 99.98% of (new) money flowing into bitcoin and rest into LTC/PPC those would increase %-wise far stronger than bitcoin and you would be worse of than going by the ratios.

It's enough risk to bet on crypto now, but investing in just 1 coin is stupid unless you can be 100% sure you are smarter than the market.

But LTC has worse properties than BTC and it's behind. Furthermore there will be 84M of them.

May be I cannot be certain which cryptocurrency wil make it but there is simply too many of them to (profitably) diversify in all of them. Thus far LTC and PPC are the only ones I give at least some chance of sticking around. Therefore I saved all money from giveaways (PPC and LTC) and what I mined myself (LTC).

You didn't get my point.

For your current diversification you would have to be at least 99.98% sure that everyone that buys crypto with USD will buy only Bitcoin and not exchange later to LTC or PPC. (Or 100% sure that 99.98% of all people buying crypto will buy bitcoins and don't exchange later). Marketcap of all cryptos is still damm small, so only people who don't already have crypto matter.

You really think you can be THAT sure?
Otherwise you should buy more PPC and LTC untill you have ~97% BTC in your portfolio.

Everything more than 97% bitcoin is a bet favouring BTC vs LTC&PPC
and everyting less it a bet favouring PPC&LTC. Betting on crypto as whole is risk enough, no need for additional drama.



Profitability of adding another crypto depends on how much you have. It doesn't make sense to buy fractions of an unknown, worthless altcoin. LTC,PPC,NMC* are different since their marketshares matters. If another crypto reaches their marketshare you could still buy it later on and won't miss the train on a unlikely, but possibly bitcoin-killer.


*isn't actually a cryptocurrency, but damm did it rise lately

I think the most likely Bitcoin killer hasn't been invented yet.

To answer your question, BTC is currently trading around $760 and has been fluctuating from about $570-750 the past few days. I'm not sure of the exact numbers, these are just my own numbers from watching the charts and noticing the price ranges that are most common (so the high might actually be 850 but it's so uncommon that I don't include it in my spread).

Therefore it seems to be trading high today so I would probably wait it out through this upcoming Monday to see if you can get a price under 650 and buy then. If that hasn't happened, then just go ahead and pay anything under 800 on Monday. Since you're spending $10k I'm assuming you're looking to invest long-term so if you actually believe in BTC then the difference between buying in at 650 and 750 is negligible.

I would also recommend putting 1-2k of your investment into LTC. I bought in at $3 and it has performed well so far.

altcoins are moving pretty much with bitcoin. THey really just trade on a ratio of bitcoin.

Buy now!the price will continue to rise!

I agree.

The key to finding it is in regulary adjusting your portfolio on newcomers. PPC's marketcap is currently 0.3% of BTC, so if you spend 0.3% of your bitcoins on PPC you wouldn't loose if PPC destroyes bitcoin.(Won't happen) Look at the ratio of marketkaps and if you find a newcomer that exeeds f.e. 0.3%* you buy it with 0.3%of your coins and don't look at it ever again.

If it outperformed BTC you weren't outperformed by the market, and if it collapses you probably will loose far less than 0.3%. Unless it's total garbage it will still outperform USD after a while.


Finding the right threshold(0.3%) is tricky. You still have to check if the newcomer is currently hyped or even total trash. This strategy is when you have no opinion on an altcoin, but I would say f.e. that the current 1:338 domination of bitcoin vs PPC isn't justified at all.

LTC is impossible to estimate and every BTC other altcoin is not more than an expensive lottery ticket.

Note:
Mistakes are the best teachers.
Making a mistake once and it will teach you a lesson.
Even if you didn't understand it the first time,
it will always repeat it for you.

I didn't follow my own advice here and went full retard on altcoins at their ATH vs BTC.
I still made some money, but damm, I could have made a fortune.



That's total BS, it's the 100% opposite.
Let's say you spend 10grand (@650 or 750) and you expect Bitcoin to rise to 10k$ each. The diffenence would then be 133k$, that's serious money and far more than your initial investment. Gambling on finding the right spot to buy is gambling with a fortune although you just spend less than it.
See corrected version in my next post.

I do expect a serious correction soon, but betting on it is a gamble.
Go cost averaging unless you would be willing to gamble with that serious money aswell.

I think you calculated that incorrectly. If it rises from 650 to 10k, then from your initial 10k investment you've made $153k in revenue. If it rises from 750 to 10k, you've made $133k, which is only a 13% difference. Personally I don't find it that important but I agree that it is going to be up to him to decide what his risk threshold is. If he waits for it to drop to 650 and it instead increases to 850 and never drops, then he has already lost out and could turn into one of those "I'm gonna buy it next time it crashes (never)" people. This is why I think that just buying in at a relatively decent price is his best bet.

Maybe thinking about what you want to achieve with your investment will help you decide.
I mean you plan to sell when the price doubles or something? Then you should probably wait for a correction.

You mean to hoard the 12 coins you can buy right now and become a millionaire when bitcoin hits 100.000$. Then waiting for a price dip will not make such a diiference  :P :P

Invest to a systematic schedule, no one can time the market optimally all the time

And yes if you are starting out diversify into litecoins if you will..

I never though of bitcoin as a way to get more fiat currency ...


THX

What country are you in?  If you're in the U.S., you can get more bitcoins per dollar by buying at CampBX.

How is CampBX? Haven't really heard much about them.

I think there's a good chance of a correction below $700 in the next week, but there are no guarantees.

The typical behavior is a sharp rise, panic buying, a quick sharp dip, panic selling, then a quick recovery to a point somewhat higher than the previous base.  It's hard to predict, but we might see a peak around $1100, a dip down to $600, and a recovery to around $900.

You could place limit buys at $500, $600, and $700.  That gives you an excellent chance of getting in at least a bit, and the possibility of getting some of it at a great price.

I've done some trades there, and they seem honest and trustworthy.  The web interface is slow and awkward, but it works.  Liquidity is low, but coins are cheaper there than elsewhere.  I wouldn't store large amounts of coins or fiat on ANY exchange long term, but they are fine for small amounts for a short time.

Spread.. best all in all with this volatility.

And with other currency, i think its just risk = reward. They can rise hard and even fall hard if bitcoin get  hit.
Its just like Gold and silver, if you are familiar with them.
 

When Bitcoin sees another major price drop is when I'd buy in. I'd wait a few months before doing anything right now, nothing guarantees Btc won't drop back down to $130

Well then it's good that i 'm not answering to you but to the op. And statistically speaking there are much more chances that he cares about fiat than not.

when there is a good chance ;-)

after the US hearing the price went down to 450 dollars or so, that was a good time. so when you feel "bad" for bitcoin, you should actually buy.

and buy some Litecoins as bachup  ;)


i would not leave 10 k at bitstamp for a long time, even when its a good service since some month (for a bitcoin company thats alot :D ) <--

I would wait for another crash. The price seems to take a dip every 2-5 days. Wait for a dip and buy. Just be careful not to catch it on the downslope.

The problem i see with crashes in bitcoin is that they tend to be flash crashes followed by flash rises. It's easy to miss the window.

Thats why you need to put small small buy offers at different point, so that you can catch the dip. Its really a guess game, because market isn't stable to put indicators or charts to use. A little amount of fear gets the prices derailed..

Thanks for pointing it out, I totally missed that kind of mindset here.

It's a stupid way to see any investment, although you are right about the probability of the op (or anyone) carring more about having more fiat. Investing in something should not be seen as "doubling you money" instead "doubling your wealth", otherwise it's called speculation. Buying a home to rent out is investing, buying a home to cash out later is plain stupid unless you are a profesional (=gambling with other peoples money) speculator.

Well said!! Quoting some of Robert Kiyosaki's lines I see...

No, quoting some of St.Bit's lines.

Never heard of Robert Kiyosaki bevor, but if he said that I should honour him by googling.
Have you read some of his stuff, is it worth reading?

For the scenario of coming in new with 10k right now I would put 50% invested at JDs and others similar opportunities, 25% for trades and 25% in LocalBitcoins brokering.

Really depends how you want to operate - continue you life before with some capital BTC investment or do you want to change your life in a different direction?

To be true, you can say he is my guru when it comes to investing, I learnt a lot from him. You could read his first book Rich Dad Poor Dad.
The thing i like about him is that he makes investing and money so much easy to understand.
i would certainly recommend about him, although he is not much of a fan of bitcoins :D

There is a difference between speculation and seizing an opportunity. Maybe there is even a catch phrase for that but you should google it as well.

To use your example lets say that you invest in buying a house to rent it out.
Then a week later a guy comes to you and says "This was my great-great grandfather's house and it is of sentimental value to me. I 'm buying it for twice its market price".
I guess you 'll reject his offer because "doubling your money" blah blah "doubling wealth" blah blah... am i right?

No, of course not.

For my investment in housing I want someting that pays me interrest (rents). This can be that grandson's house or any other house. I don't care if I have THAT house so I'd love to sell it for more than what I would have to pay to get a house with the same rents.

In that case I'd sell* and use the money to buy 2 similiar houses. That's doubling my wealth although I don't have more USD in the bank later.

I'm not giving advice on something I know nothing about.

*)or let him pay twich that much rent, although that's not possible in my jurisdiction.

Glad to hear that but i have some more news to you. Noone is forcing you to buy 2 houses now.
You may invest to something else that it was previously impossible to do because the entry barrier was to high.
Actually this is what many succesfull investors do. Seize opportuinities and then move forward to something with a bigger potential.

There is a fine line between speculation and investing, but there is for sure.
1. If you buy something just for for its value on the market in some years will be double, then you are speculating. Just like if you are buying BITCOINS now for just to get them reach higher.
Also, Speculating is not some bad thing. But the problems here is that you are realying on ifs and buts. There may be a chance that you won't get that return or you get that return but its useless.

2. On other hand Investing is like building a mining grid for Bitcoins, so that you get some return for you investment for sure(if you have invested carefully). And also you get the speculative return, i.e the increase in value.

This is what i understand from both terms...
And mind you i am speculating on BTC right now :P

I think you should rethink these terms more carefully, I assume you both ran in some non-obvios pitfalls.
My assumtion could be wrong though, so if you agree with my example I was wrong.

Speculation is a bet on the future price. A seculator is not interrested to actually onw it and prefers a cash out. He never wanted to actually have it. All he cares is the difference buyprice sellprice and interrest between those. He wants to sell/buy as often as he can, more trades --> better.

Investment is buying something so you can enjoy it's benefits of owning it. The target here are just those benefits, not a price increase. A investor wouldn't sell only because prices increased, that's not what he cares about. He cares where he could get the most benefits for his current wealth.
Less trades are better since they cost money/time/effords. If it's profitable he will do it though.


Both of troy112's example fit both categories.

This is true! You must be ready for a dip.

I wouldn't advice betting on such ...

With all profesional money beginning to flow into the market it's not sure they wouldn't buy most of the correction. People then paniking that they won't be able to buy back their gamble on a correction and we could see some extreme spike after a fake correktion. Once professionals decided at the price where they would buy the whole market we won't ever see prices below that.

Only god knows if todays price is below or far far above it. The only huge mistake you can make on bitcoin is not beeing invested at all. You wouldn't like to addmit your mistake and would wait even longer. Humans tink very alike and once you bought anyways most other people did too. That could be the ATH just bevor the coming correction.

It's stupid to risk a fortune for having a bigger fortune when you are currently broke.
Go cost averaging or similiar methods. You can't be smarter than the market if you are the market!

I've been down this road :)

The only way you will be happy is if you buy half alt coins and half bitcoin.


Alt coins are the ones that are going to give you 100-300% return on your money at this point (see NMC and LTC recent rise in price).

Bitcoin is going to probably cap out at 900 again and sell all the way to 500-600.

I totally agree, I wish I knew that bevor I went 100% on altcoins.

Having the oportunity to buy into an oversold altcoin market could make serious money if you know what you are doing. That's noting I'd advice for people who haven't traded something like forex bevor they heard about bitcoins though.

Experienced trader or not, take $10K and put it all in LTC, NMC, and PPC, and you will NOT be disappointed 1-2 years from now.  :P

Are you expecting you WILL be disappointed if you put it in BTC?

If BTC goes up all those coins that you mentioned and also some others like primecoin will most probably go up but their prices are tied to bitcoin anyway. So the question is why to put money in those alts and not in the real deal.
It isn't even a hedge strategy because if bitcoin collapses every other coin will collapse just seconds later.

You are right that it isn't hedging, if you want to hedge put your eggs in different basket not different column of same basket.. You can put in precious metals, real estate etc.

But i would say to put some percent of your bit coin portfolio in other coins , because they have bigger upper potential then bitcoins, some are going up even 1000% right now. But they can come down to zero as well, so put only small amount

I would suggest the same. Look at it as bitcoin is your whole portfolio, where bitcoin is the moderate risk.  Put 90% in moderate risk and max 10% in high risk (altcoins)

But in the end, it is all extremely volatile. You either get rich, or lose all within 2 years. (I think)

also you should not make bitcoin more than 10-20% of your investments.. This is what you can afford to lose. Because, bitcoin is more uncertain in future then any other investments you can guess.

I agree that this is how it seems now but probably it's just speculation that drives the price of those altcoins, so if you are not willing to speculate i would suggest to stay in bitcoin. Of course there are people that claim the same for bitcoin anyway.

The point is BTC price is very high ATM... altcoins are compartively cheaper, and it's much easier to get 100-300% growth in them... Bitcoin seems to keep capping out at $1,000.

True, but I can't look into his portfolio ;) What I meant to say was that if you want to invest 10k in cryptocurrency, bitcoin is the safest bet  as it already has public interest and demand.

There isn't a thing as cheap or expensive coins since you can buy any denomination of a coin. What you are talking about is that some coins are probably undervalued and have more potential. That's possible but take in mind that they are much easier to manipulate as well because of the low market caps.

Even though I have a considerable amount invested in LTC now, I wouldn't really recommend investing in it right now. Its value quadrupled in less than 48 hours due to purely technical trading - no news coverage etc, just people buying because other people are buying. Seems very risky at the moment. That said, if it touches $50 I'm just gonna say screw it and buy some more anyway.

BTC at the moment seems pretty safe, surprised there was no resistance at 1000.

Litecoin is making moves right now... it seems to be get in now or forever hold your peace....


Litecoin is following in Bitcoins footsteps, you can bet the bank on that.

I'd invest now if you haven't already but I'd take it slow until you have a better understanding where the market will go.

10-20% of total investments is insane to buy bitcoins with. Risk less than a few % at most and let it grow.
Once you saw a 10fold cash out double your intital investment and you are good to go. In a few years
you might be holdin a fortune or got your money back.

I belive a 10fold is still realistic from current prices, but after that I wouldn't speculate on it anymore.

Insane? Or genius? ;)

Definitively insane, but a maniak could also buy 10000 lottery tickes win millions ...

If you bought it far earlier and it grew to that percentage it's someting different.
Not saying that I wasn't that insane when I started to buy bitcoins though.  8)