Bitcoin Forum

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The shit could collapse in the 75-125 range and stay there for a long time. That's the most pessimistic scenario I can think of.

OK, do not kill me for that question...
What does "bear" and "bearish" mean!

Thanks!

Means when you are a bear you think the price will go down

Yeah, that's pretty much a worst case scenerio. I think the next phase will be capital flowing away from Bitcoin and over into the altcoin markets. Yesterday on RT Max Keiser mentioned Litecoin and I see today it's closing in on $10.00.

I think it's this episode: http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-526-max-keiser-025/

Litecoin is a pump and dump scheme. It offers no advantages compared to BTC.

I sold around $400. Still got my buys spread between $100 - $200 and they're staying there for a while at least.

I suspect bearishness correlates with how far out people zoom on their chart of choice (e.g. the more bearish, the more the person zoomed out)

Some bulls become short time bears to gain extra btc in their stash.
But it's very risky due to permabullish nature of bitcoin. Many of them finally missed the train sold at $5, $30, $60, $100, $300, $500.

Many speak about a bear trap between the 2 pics a few days ago.
What do they mean?

Is there a lexicon somewhere for these terms somewhere in the forum?
Thanks!

You just kinda have to pick it up as your go along

A trap tends to suggest the price is going one way luring either bears to sell or bulls to buy and then goes the other way, so it was a trap.

Bear trap is when bears (those who think price is falling) sell bitcoins and expect to re-buy at lower price. But instead, price stops falling and goes even higher. So bears are just trapped and suffer from serious losses.

I'm going to assume that's what you really did, so then I'm wondering: that strategy only makes sense if you assume that we're going to correct down to between 1/8 to 1/4 of the current price. Which didn't even happen in the April 10 crash in any substantial volume (don't know how much you're expecting to buy, but let's say it's more than neglible amounts). That's pretty hardcore bearish, not just "we're overbought right now and will correct back to July levels" but "we're going back more than half a year, well below the previous ATH". Would actually be really interested to hear why you think that's the case?

Hey OP. I think that would be me. Contrary to popular belief I never sold to buy lower (when I did, I used the fun-money, not funds I wouldn't afford to loose)

I don't trust these high prices but I do profit on them.

Thanks, that makes it clear!
So I did fall in the trap (sold for 350) and before I make more stupid decision, I will wait a few weeks. Maybe I can get back my btc maybe not.
Greets!

So first, I've been studying Bitcoin for 2.5 years. I'm not a trader, I don't follow it to make money. I've invest $100 and that $100 is $100 I count as in the bin (gone.) I'm not a brilliant investor, I lost some of my potential profits doing bad day trading at times, and lost bits investing in altcoins. Generally though after my first year, I stopped trading, mainly holding, doing a sell if I think the price is highly overinflated (e.g. April.)

But this was my reasoning
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=&c=1&s=2012-11-14&e=2013-11-09&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

I think the true value of Bitcoin (and trend) is between early December and early April. I think the trend disappears for a bit due to hype, but continues again from July until October. I think outside of those ranges, the price variation is not due to the value of Bitcoin increasing, but just speculation. I think: when it's speculation, it's risky.

I sold what I had for $800. In my risk assessment, my belief the that price will go down was high enough for me to decide I'm happy to cash out for the time being with 700% profit. An implication of my assumption the price will drop a lot is that holding for longer is an increased risk of losing what I had at the time. Given the choice of taking home 700%, or taking a risk, being a risk averse person, I chose to take the money.

In my eyes, there is never a reason to be sad, second guess or feel like I've lost out with 700% profit. Saying I could have had 1500% profit, to me, is the equivalent of saying "I could have had $20million if I'd picked <insert last weeks lottery numbers> in last weeks lottery" - pointless.

Yes, I could have held longer and had $1500, but I saw an opportunity to take home $700 with no risk. Makes sense to me.

With my thought process, lost potential profit is not a loss of profit, because that potential profit would have cost risk, which is something I don't like or need to be content.

edit: I would be lying though if I said I wasn't considering revising my buys closer to $200, maybe even as high as $250.

I'm overall bearish at the moment and I don't think the current market price levels are supported by anything but hot air.

The way I see it, there are 12 million BTC in existence and only a tiny fraction of that has changed hands at anything close to the current levels. Probably those with several thousand BTC have already cashed out and paid off their mortgages (and are in no hurry to sell the rest of their bitcoin holdings) but there are a lot of people with anything from 100 to 1000 BTC who are just waiting for the signal.

Also, the difficulties at MtGox, and to a lesser degree all other exchanges, has made people reluctant to cash out their coins. Mostly just miners and hardcore speculators are selling at the moment. If Gox ever gets their bank problems solved, the price is going to plummet instantly.

The only true bear I can think of is someone mining and selling all his coins immediatelly.

No need to say how much value this bear looses...

It's a super-bubble IMO. So I guess that makes me one of the few remaining people who are not buying. It probably has more to go though. It seems bubbles are pervasive at the moment across many asset classes:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-22/david-stockman-blasts-its-20078-all-over-again

Of course, I've noticed these bubbles for a while now and have talked of their bursting, but it seems that some just keep getting bigger. Figuring out exactly when they'll pop is the hard part. So do as you will.

I really think you overestimate the importance of mtgox at this moment. Sure, they're still relevant, but they are now one of three mostly equally important exchanges.

I think there are people that are reluctant to add money to mtgox too.

Yeah, man, when October comes, there will be blood!  ???

Seriously, when did people start thinking Zero Hedge deserves more attention than the rest of the mainstream media?

That ain't a bear what you're searching for , maybe a hyena .

Why would people who see bitcoin as complete trainwreck post here of all places?

Then you dont know what bear means in trading. Bear means they want to SHORT..... especially when they trade with margin. So they MUST buy back , preferably at lower price and make profit


What you're looking for is trolls. We have those here, usually from another commodity market like gold/silver.

This is what happens:

During a bubble and post bubble everyone and his mom is pro-bitcoin bull.

Wait until the summer and the price is steady, or dropping slowly, around the $500 mark and then you'll have a quarter of the forum saying how bitcoin is all going to end and there is no way it's "ever going to go back up to $900, it's done" .

Yeah, because Bitcoin is sooooooo static.

By next summer the bitcoin-eco system is going to be 10x what it is today. There are so many big projects being worked on right now. I truely believe we will have a "killer app" or two by then amongst other innovations.

The price won't be $500. And no one will be complaining.

Here , is it going to die soon i wouldn't say so , anyone familiar with penny stocks knows what i am talking about , many traders like me have seen such bubbles over and over again it happens all the time in other assets , that being said i am nearly sure we will drop again to $100 , but i cant be dead sure really , look at the forums it turned to another penny stock holders forum , most are hoarders , speculators , bullish , bearish ... etc you get what i am at , that's not what BTC is suppose to be , where is innovation threads , where is the "eco system" expanding program ? All i see hoarders care about BTC value in $ terms looking/dreaming to get rich soon , nothing wrong with that i myself a speculator but i wouldn't buy at these prices , when it goes below 100 i will think about it . Its a bubble and its going to burst even if the price skyrockets to few $ Ks  its irrelevant and its going down but that doesn't mean BTC will die soon ...

This!
Food for thought!